Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

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I think the phrase '2 horse race' as become so popular recently, it could even become just plain old 2 horse race now. Or even 'horsies.'

Best value out there so far though these things. Why touch St Kilda though? or Freo? Not much value there at all, and they're at least 3 if not four horsies.
There is value in Pav and NDS if you really want it.

If Barlow doesn't poll as expected early on, Pav will be right there to take those votes.

NDS is always around the mark.
 

Brownlow King

Team Captain
Sep 14, 2008
574
7
Mount Eliza
AFL Club
Geelong
I think this has some merit

Had a quick look over the polling performances of Coleman medallists of the last few years and it looks a little something like this:

2009 - Fevola - 11 votes
2008 - Franklin - 20 votes
2007 - Brown - 17 votes
2006 - Fevola - 9 votes
2005 - Gehrig - 10 votes
2004 - Gehrig - 9 votes
2003 - Lloyd - 14 votes
2002 - Neitz - 11 votes
2001 - Lloyd - 15 votes
2000 - Lloyd - 14 votes

I realise Richmond haven't won as many games this year as most of these teams would have, but when these guys got votes (especially the specialist goal-kickers) it was with big bags in wins and typically they pick up the 3 or 2

I think JVolt fits this mould pretty perfectly, comfortable he'll easily get up around the 9-10 votes mark a la Fev/Gehrig/Neitz
Good work on this. I agrre that J Volt will knock over Deledio and I've used him in a fair few multis.
 

Brownlow King

Team Captain
Sep 14, 2008
574
7
Mount Eliza
AFL Club
Geelong
Hi all,justed registered ,finally!!!....listened and learnt from you guys last year and turned $600 into $10,500 and that was with 2 ties,delidio cost me heaps more!!!...woulda been 42G's but who's crying,lol...anyways,your are all doin a great job again this year so keep up the great work...BTW,you cant multi team votes on SA Tab,even tho you could last year...so Vic tabonline it is..my best so far is>>>>

Thompson/Watson/Brown/Hayes/Pendles/Goodes/Boak/Boyd...$50 @$44,600

I think this is crazy coz i can see all of these winning!!!!!!

Any thoughts???

Keep up the great work guys:thumbsu:
I'd also do the same and swap Boyd for Cooney.
 

Brownlow King

Team Captain
Sep 14, 2008
574
7
Mount Eliza
AFL Club
Geelong
i'm thinking pendles,boak,boyd and 2 a smaller degree goodes are risks but you fellas seem to rate them highly so fingers crossed.....i have heaps more multis on and hoping for a big night...if most of the following get up im cruising..

Pendles
Hayes
Thompson
Goodes
Watson
Brown
Boyd
J Reiwoldt
Boak/Cassisi/Rodan
Barlow/Pav
Sylvia/Green

and to a lesser extent

Selwood
Harvey

Staying away from Carl,WC,hawks........too short,ala swan and lids last year
Sandilands looks to be an obvious hole in your strategy. Pav no hope it's Sandi or Barlow.
 

Brownlow King

Team Captain
Sep 14, 2008
574
7
Mount Eliza
AFL Club
Geelong
Thompson
Brown
Watson
Pavlich
Riewoldt
Hayes
Boak
Goodes
Harvey
Sylvia/Green

= 200k

If Barlow/Swallow/Jack instead of their respective players = 80k
Freo your real problem here. No Sandilands ??

I don't know how lots of you rate Pavlich, maybe give a breakdown of him ?

I have :
Sandilands 20
Barlow 16
Pavlich 9
 

Athomas

Premiership Player
Feb 10, 2008
4,577
297
AFL Club
Carlton
Good call, finally someone with some sense on freo's count !

:thumbsu:

However, I do have Pavlich leading fremantle though, by 1 over Sandi. I give him a huge chance. :p

Pav has won fremantles in 04, 05, 06, 07, 08 and 09 and I rate his year as good as last if not better.

My odds would be:
Sandi $1.35
Pav $3
Barlow $10

Hence I think Pav is real value. :)

EDIT: He's also had more frees then any year of his career!
 

Brownlow King

Team Captain
Sep 14, 2008
574
7
Mount Eliza
AFL Club
Geelong
Exactly right. Right up until the 5 leg multis i'll be using the combinations of who I think are '2 horse race players' with my anchors in order to maximise my chances of at least walking away with some profit for the night.

And if I happen to snag one or two 6-10 leg multis i'll probably become a full time Brownlow punter ala. BK. :p ;)
I'm not quite a full time Brownlow punter and analyst but it did cross my mind last year and if I win big time as expected this year who knows ???

I'm keen to bring out a book that would be a best seller I reckon..." How I Brought Down The TAB ".....
 

Athomas

Premiership Player
Feb 10, 2008
4,577
297
AFL Club
Carlton

Athomas

Premiership Player
Feb 10, 2008
4,577
297
AFL Club
Carlton
In today's Herald Sun

The Knock
James Frawley has had a brilliant season, but at $2 he is under the odds with TAB Sportsbet to poll the most votes for Melbourne. Back Brad Green at $3 and "any other player" at $11.

Missed Sylvia, but good to see even the Herald Sun are laughing at that market. :p
 
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