Brownlow Medal 2013

DangerSloane · Sep 3, 2013

NSLK said:
Libba > Hartlett > Wingard > Hanley > Heppell

Id be saying Wingard ahead of Hartlett. Hanley has had a great year but to me seems like he could be the type to go unnoticed.

NSLK · Sep 3, 2013

DangerSloane said:
Id be saying Wingard ahead of Hartlett. Hanley has had a great year but to me seems like he could be the type to go unnoticed.

I'd be saying so too retrospectively, but my count says otherwise. Hartlett was killing it early, it will probably have taken the umpires to start noticing Wingard too.

Hartlett (13) - Round - Wingard (11)
3 - 1 - 0
0 - 2 - 1
0 - 3 - 2
3 - 4 - 0
3 - 5 - 0
0 - 12 - 1
0 - 13 - 2
0 - 17 - 2
2 - 18 - 0
2 - 19 - 3

d3ft · Sep 3, 2013

Hanley won't poll - he's a defender.

sfear · Sep 3, 2013

DangerSloane said:
Id be saying Wingard ahead of Hartlett

yeah, I have Wingard just ahead too.

Last year I remember there was a market for most votes from after the byes (rd 13 or whatever) to season end (the opposite of leader after rd 10) but can't remember what agency, anyone know?

d3ft · Sep 3, 2013

Libba in to $1.65.

RobbyRoy · Sep 3, 2013

d3ft said:
Libba in to $1.65.

I personally won't be touching that. He's had a phenomenal year but we simply don't know how he'll fare with the umps at this point in his career.

Pinnell · Sep 3, 2013

DangerSloane said:
Didnt poll that great last year, and had a worse season in 2013.
Id say the value there is Wingard or Harvey
Mundy never polls well...Deledio will have to share the votes with a lot of people (Martin, Jackson, Cotchin etc)

Interesting. He polled 19 votes last year.

DangerSloane · Sep 4, 2013

Pinnell said:
Interesting. He polled 19 votes last year.

And he was expected to poll more...
And he's had a worse year... he wont get 19 votes, and 19 votes wont be enough to beat out Jack or Hannebury.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

DangerSloane said:
Didnt poll that great last year, and had a worse season in 2013.
Id say the value there is Wingard or Harvey
Mundy never polls well...Deledio will have to share the votes with a lot of people (Martin, Jackson, Cotchin etc)

Kennedy got what he deserved last year, Mundy overpolled by a fair way.

DangerSloane said:
And he was expected to poll more...
And he's had a worse year... he wont get 19 votes, and 19 votes wont be enough to beat out Jack or Hannebury.

If you had him on more than 20 then your numbers were wrong. He has had a poor year but the argument wasn't beating the other swans. It was beating the others in his group.

Quite Ironic · Sep 4, 2013

Pinnell said:
Brownlow Group Votes - Boyz To Men
Name Win
David Mundy 2.85
Josh Kennedy (SYD) 3.75
Brett Deledio 4.00
Chad Wingard 4.50
Brent Harvey

Josh Kennedy looks a good thing - betstar grouos

I've got Mundy and Kennedy on 10, Deledio on 11, Wingard on 11 and Harvey on 11.

Take Harvey and Wingard for some value

Pinnell · Sep 4, 2013

Quite Ironic said:
I've got Mundy and Kennedy on 10, Deledio on 11, Wingard on 11 and Harvey on 11.

Take Harvey and Wingard for some value

I got my value by taking Kennedy when it opened - he was $5. But I realise its going to be tight.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

If you have them all within one, I don't think it's worth guessing unless you took a small spec on Wingard, but that would be it.

DangerSloane · Sep 4, 2013

KardiniaPark said:
Kennedy got what he deserved last year, Mundy overpolled by a fair way.

If you had him on more than 20 then your numbers were wrong. He has had a poor year but the argument wasn't beating the other swans. It was beating the others in his group.

I just dont think he'll score anywhere near 19 this year.
Id say 12-13 would be more around the mark.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

DangerSloane said:
I just dont think he'll score anywhere near 19 this year.
Id say 12-13 would be more around the mark.

That's not what you said though.

DangerSloane · Sep 4, 2013

KardiniaPark said:
That's not what you said though.

What part of what I said are you challenging?

- Kennedy was expected by most people to get more votes in 2012.
- Kennedy's 2013 < Kennedy's 2012
- Kennedy has more people taking votes this year on top of this

I think the value in the group is Wingard or Harvey, but thats an opinion based on the above points and my views on how they'll poll this year.

Edit: Also this is echoed by another poster who has them very close to each other, meaning the value (if there is any) is in Wingard and Harvey.

Quite Ironic · Sep 4, 2013

KardiniaPark said:
If you have them all within one, I don't think it's worth guessing unless you took a small spec on Wingard, but that would be it.

Yeah i personally think the group is too tough to call.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

DangerSloane said:
What part of what I said are you challenging?

- Kennedy was expected by most people to get more votes in 2012.
- Kennedy's 2013 < Kennedy's 2012
- Kennedy has more people taking votes this year on top of this

I think the value in the group is Wingard or Harvey, but thats an opinion based on the above points and my views on how they'll poll this year.

Edit: Also this is echoed by another poster who has them very close to each other, meaning the value (if there is any) is in Wingard and Harvey.

'Most' people had it wrong then. I'm telling you that he didn't underpoll. In fact if anyone from Sydney did then it was Jack.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

You also conveniently forgot to address the Mundy part.

DangerSloane · Sep 4, 2013

KardiniaPark said:
'Most' people had it wrong then. I'm telling you that he didn't underpoll. In fact if anyone from Sydney did then it was Jack.

Given that point, MOST people will have it wrong again this year and he will score less than expected, given that his season hasnt been as good.
Which is...exactly what I said?

DangerSloane · Sep 4, 2013

KardiniaPark said:
You also conveniently forgot to address the Mundy part.

Im not sure what about Mundy you're challenging? He generally doesnt poll well. You're forgetting last year that other good Fremantle players missed a lot of games. Barlow/Fyfe (Pavlich has a very quiet first half to the year). This meant he was much more likely to get votes in a Freo win than this year where Fyfe and Barlow barely missed any footy and Freo have had an emergence of other players like Suban and Walters.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

It doesn't matter who missed games, it matters how many he should have polled and he polled way more than he should have.

DangerSloane · Sep 4, 2013

KardiniaPark said:
It doesn't matter who missed games, it matters how many he should have polled and he polled way more than he should have.

So its not easier for a quality player to score votes when other quality players arent in the side?
Now ive heard it all.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

DangerSloane said:
So its not easier for a quality player to score votes when other quality players arent in the side?
Now ive heard it all.

No, it's not a given.

-they get more attention
-their team is less likely to win or win by enough to have a high number of total votes in the game.

DangerSloane · Sep 4, 2013

KardiniaPark said:
No, it's not a given.

-they get more attention
-their team is less likely to win or win by enough to have a high number of total votes in the game.

In more cases than not, it would work towards the player getting more votes.
Last year Freo still won games with those players out.
I know its not 100% but you gotta say its a contributing factor to Mundy's polling last year compared with this year.

KardiniaPark · Sep 4, 2013

Nah, I wouldn't say that. Lets just agree to disagree.

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