Discussion Brownlow Medal, 2020 - Steele finishes 3rd on 20 votes

Steels finishing position

  • Wins

    Votes: 3 8.8%
  • top 3

    Votes: 11 32.4%
  • top 5

    Votes: 18 52.9%
  • not top 5

    Votes: 2 5.9%

  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .

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Veer Right

Club Legend
May 11, 2019
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So do we give Jack a realistic chance?

As for the punting side of it, top 5 market for him is 1.40, meh

The top 3 market is 3.50 or so. What's his chances? I am half interested but need to be talked into it.
 

Pardon me

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Aug 13, 2016
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Not convinced - plenty of saints to take votes off him;
Butler early
Billings had a few games
Ryder
Gresh might have a sneaky couple of votes
All in all I think he’ll get top 5 but might be some value in a few top vote getters at other clubs

Edit: just had a quick look and not sure he gets a max vote game until rnd 10 V GC
 

DT_35

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 14, 2010
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Not convinced - plenty of saints to take votes off him;
Butler early
Billings had a few games
Ryder
Gresh might have a sneaky couple of votes
All in all I think he’ll get top 5 but might be some value in a few top vote getters at other clubs

Edit: just had a quick look and not sure he gets a max vote game until rnd 10 V GC
Would expect him to get 3 against Adelaide in R7. 20 contested touches and 13 clearances...
 

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12Chill

Premiership Player
Jun 13, 2014
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Hmm maybe mate - Butler kicks 3 with 12 touches
Forwards kicking 3 goals usually don’t attract the 3 Brownlow votes unless they’ve had closer to 20 possessions. Umps see Butts pop up with a few goals throughout the game but they see Steele grinding at every single contest and coming out on top more often than not, I’d bank on Steele getting BOG in that one.
 

Plugger35

The umpires are always right!
Sep 27, 2008
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Don't give him much chance of winning, he isn't a flashy player that umpires would notice that much and this is his breakout AA year so he hasn't been a well known player up until now, it normally takes a couple of AA quality seasons before the umpires start to take notice of them. He might sneak into the top 5 though.
 

my name was taken

Premiership Player
Sep 8, 2008
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Probably 5/6.

Doesnt get the media love fest of others, best most can muster is "steele had a good season for the saints, was a good pickup" with all the enthusiasm of going to the dentist. Comparable players have them going off in the boys club.
 

Plugger35

The umpires are always right!
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Probably 5/6.

Doesnt get the media love fest of others, best most can muster is "steele had a good season for the saints, was a good pickup" with all the enthusiasm of going to the dentist. Comparable players have them going off in the boys club.
He's no Danger or Dusty where the commentators talk up every regulation handball or kick like it's a work of art, no doubt it plays a part in the votes they get.
 

Nutsngum

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As someone who's uncle works at the AFL I know for a fact, guaranteed, that Steele is going to be the sneaky winner this year ala Priddis. Bet your house on it I would.
 

BrutThough

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 2, 2010
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Not convinced - plenty of saints to take votes off him;
Butler early
Billings had a few games
Ryder
Gresh might have a sneaky couple of votes
All in all I think he’ll get top 5 but might be some value in a few top vote getters at other clubs

Edit: just had a quick look and not sure he gets a max vote game until rnd 10 V GC
He should get the 3 votes against Carlton rd5
 

Plugger35

The umpires are always right!
Sep 27, 2008
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It can sometimes take the umpires a while to pick up on emerging players. It wasn't until later in the season that the media really picked up on Steele, wouldn't be surprised if it's the same case with the Brownlow.
I remember when Dane Swan was the raging favourite in 2010 but lost to Chris Judd because Judd was a more recognised big name midfielder and then Swan won it in 2011 when he had a worse year than 2010 but was a more recognised big name midfielder by then so the umpires were more aware of him.
 

Pardon me

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He should get the 3 votes against Carlton rd5
23 with 8 contested
Billings has 23 with 5 contested and a goal.
Reckon Billings pips him.
Saying that, I place a higher value on goals this year with regards to the award and also like others have mentioned, I’m expecting the umpires to be a year behind as per usual
 

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CursingFijian

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Dec 6, 2014
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AFL predictor has him at equal top 5. Interestingly they have Zak Jones polling reasonably well too. If some of Jones votes go to Steele then I think he is a possibility to finish top 3. Just can't see anyone troubling Neale though and I think Lachie will be a deserved winner.

  1. Lachie Neale 25
  2. Travis Boak 21
  3. Christian Petracca 18
  4. Dustin Martin 15
  5. Patrick Dangerfield / Jack Steele 14
  6. Nic Naitanui / Marcus Bontempelli 13
  7. Taylor Adams / Tom Hawkins / Sam Menegola / Luke Parker / Ollie Wines 12
  8. Nat Fyfe / Zak Jones 11
 

DT_35

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 14, 2010
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23 with 8 contested
Billings has 23 with 5 contested and a goal.
Reckon Billings pips him.
Saying that, I place a higher value on goals this year with regards to the award and also like others have mentioned, I’m expecting the umpires to be a year behind as per usual
Steele got a perfect 10 in the coaches votes. Kept Cripps quite until the game was over and he got junk time touches.

Sportsbet have Steele $1.60 for the 3 votes with Marshall at $4 and Billings at $5.
 

Enclosed_Animal

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Took this from elsewhere, but this is one of the best guides I have found. Online betting companies might be complete assholes, but you cant accuse them of not doing their homework. If you tally up all the odds for 3 vote games in Sportsbet (and created a 3-2-1 on the favourites in every game), the leader-board looks something like this:

Neale 31
Petracca 26
Steele 22
Boak 21
Macrae 17
Merrett 15
Danger 15
Dusty 15
Bont 15
Fyfe 15
Menegola 15
NicNat 13
Cripps 13
Guthrie 13
Pendles 13
Parker 13
Adams 12
Gawn 12
McGrath 12
Oliver 11
Rockliff 11
Wines 11
T.Kelly 11
Hawkins 10
Sheed 10
Mundy 10
Treloar 9
Rowell 9
Marshall 9
J.Kelly 9
Greene 9
Brayshaw 9
Shiel 9
J.Anderson 8
Gaff 8
Z.Jones 8
Billings 8
Whitfield 8
Lu.Ryan 7
Walsh 7
Mitchell 7
Wingard 7
Laird 7

Obviously the above is far from perfect, but gives a rough guesstimate which is probably as good as any. A couple of things I would note for Sainters having a bet (FWIW - which probably isn't much):

If anyone is looking to bet on the St.Kilda leader (w/o Steele) it is likely going to be very very close between Billings, Z.Jones & Marshall. Basically a lucky dip there. Gresh will likely play the spoiler for someone.

Steele (while not being a proven vote getter yet) is a genuine chance for top 3. Still think Boak pips him, but $6.50 for a top 3 of Neale / Trac / Steele is not the worst bet going around.

Billings a genuine chance to be running top 2 in the Brownlow at the halfway stage (behind Neale). Basically falls off a cliff when moved from the wing into the middle (to cover the loss of Gresh), but until then is very very likely top 3 in the Brownlow. If Steele doesn't poll that well, could still even sneak into the top 20 at the end of the night

Menegola and Sheed for 10+ are the ones that would really add value to any multis

Enjoy the night ladies and gents!!
 
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