Discussion Brownlow Medal, 2020 - Steele finishes 3rd on 20 votes

Steels finishing position

  • Wins

    Votes: 3 8.8%
  • top 3

    Votes: 11 32.4%
  • top 5

    Votes: 18 52.9%
  • not top 5

    Votes: 2 5.9%

  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .

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Armitage2Riewoldt

Premium Gold
May 23, 2008
15,113
14,937
Melbourne
AFL Club
St Kilda
Took this from elsewhere, but this is one of the best guides I have found. Online betting companies might be complete assholes, but you cant accuse them of not doing their homework. If you tally up all the odds for 3 vote games in Sportsbet (and created a 3-2-1 on the favourites in every game), the leader-board looks something like this:

Neale 31
Petracca 26
Steele 22
Boak 21
Macrae 17
Merrett 15
Danger 15
Dusty 15
Bont 15
Fyfe 15
Menegola 15
NicNat 13
Cripps 13
Guthrie 13
Pendles 13
Parker 13
Adams 12
Gawn 12
McGrath 12
Oliver 11
Rockliff 11
Wines 11
T.Kelly 11
Hawkins 10
Sheed 10
Mundy 10
Treloar 9
Rowell 9
Marshall 9
J.Kelly 9
Greene 9
Brayshaw 9
Shiel 9
J.Anderson 8
Gaff 8
Z.Jones 8
Billings 8
Whitfield 8
Lu.Ryan 7
Walsh 7
Mitchell 7
Wingard 7
Laird 7

Obviously the above is far from perfect, but gives a rough guesstimate which is probably as good as any. A couple of things I would note for Sainters having a bet (FWIW - which probably isn't much):

If anyone is looking to bet on the St.Kilda leader (w/o Steele) it is likely going to be very very close between Billings, Z.Jones & Marshall. Basically a lucky dip there. Gresh will likely play the spoiler for someone.

Steele (while not being a proven vote getter yet) is a genuine chance for top 3. Still think Boak pips him, but $6.50 for a top 3 of Neale / Trac / Steele is not the worst bet going around.

Billings a genuine chance to be running top 2 in the Brownlow at the halfway stage (behind Neale). Basically falls off a cliff when moved from the wing into the middle (to cover the loss of Gresh), but until then is very very likely top 3 in the Brownlow. If Steele doesn't poll that well, could still even sneak into the top 20 at the end of the night

Menegola and Sheed for 10+ are the ones that would really add value to any multis

Enjoy the night ladies and gents!!
So this almost nailed all of neale, steele, boak, danger and dustys votes.

Good effort.
 

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Hayes4PM

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 7, 2013
11,181
20,891
AFL Club
St Kilda
I know he just won a Brownlow, but Neale's Mrs is waaaaaaaaay waaaaaaaaay waaaaaay too hot for him.

Screw the Brownlow, you won the lotto there Lachie
Think the camera man agreed with you too, spent a loooooot of time panning back to her. Think he forgot everyone else was watching as well.
 

Enclosed_Animal

Club Legend
Jun 14, 2015
1,111
8,318
Sandringham
AFL Club
St Kilda
So this almost nailed all of neale, steele, boak, danger and dustys votes.

Good effort.
Just sorting through all of my multi's now. That system got:
  • 4 of the top 5
  • 7 of the top 8 (most of those within a vote or 2)
  • 16 of the top 20
Better then throwing darts

Made a small profit. Guthrie overpolling and Menegola & Bont underpolling cost me the really really really really big payouts. Been swearing at Menegola all night (the overrated hack)

For anyone interested (which is probably noone) but:
Merrett, Guthrie, Parker, Gawn and Oliver went much better then expected
Bont, Fyfe, Menegola, McGrath and NicNat much worse

Petracca is also still a w***er. Wont be able to fit his head in a room after tonight

For us: got Steele, Marshall, Z.Jones and Gresh within a vote
Underpolled Butler and overpolled Billings (basically just allocated those games to the wrong player)
Otherwise our leaderboard looks about bang on for me

Will happily use that system to back top 5 / 10 / 20 finishes for players again next year. In a closer count it should turn a really decent profit
 
Last edited:

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Enclosed_Animal

Club Legend
Jun 14, 2015
1,111
8,318
Sandringham
AFL Club
St Kilda
Oh and for the lol's (and the next time some North supporting smartass responds to one of my punting posts)

Ryder doesn't hit the post against North in rd 1, and Steele probably outpolls the entire North team for 2020
 

SaintsSeptember

Hall of Famer
Mar 19, 2008
43,670
33,720
Narre Warren North
AFL Club
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Other Teams
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Top 30 leaderboard here

At rd 13 Neale has it won

For us:
Steele 3rd (15) - looking good for top 3
Butler 20th (8)
Z.Jones 28th (7)

Gresh and Marshall 5 votes each
Billings, Long, Hind 2 votes each
Carlisle, Dunstan, Hill and Ryder 1 vote
Dunstan got a vote in the round 1 game, even though he was so good he didn't get selected again in 2020.

My suspicion is that those umpires who actually concentrate on adjudicating the game , rather than watching the footy, get to the end and say " sh*t , got to do my points for the players, lets see the stats sheet ".
 

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