Brownlow Brownlow Medal 2021 - Congratulations Ollie Wines 🥂

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Jan 5, 2013
11,819
19,740
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Port Adelaide
Wines and a few port boys headed to Perth today for the Brownlow. Probably good to get Wines, Bont and Oliver in Perth, will most likely be one (or all hopefully) who wins it
 

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dean33

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
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melb
AFL Club
Richmond
I don’t see how they’re able to do this. We’re in full lockdown in Vic, they can’t gather players for it. An exemption for a ******* vote count? 😂
I remember last year the teams in Melbourne all wearing masks in a function room together. That was during our lockdown as well. Not sure how that happened actually.
 

Bunk Moreland

Hall of Famer
Sep 22, 2011
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I remember last year the teams in Melbourne all wearing masks in a function room together. That was during our lockdown as well. Not sure how that happened actually.
I believe there isn’t a function in Melbourne now, but could be wrong.

If the winner is in Vic then assume they’ll just get them in a TV studio or something. Surely they’d have to pre count it this year so they can plan to get the winner in if they have to.
 

dean33

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 10, 2007
10,574
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melb
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I believe there isn’t a function in Melbourne now, but could be wrong.

If the winner is in Vic then assume they’ll just get them in a TV studio or something. Surely they’d have to pre count it this year so they can plan to get the winner in if they have to.
Nah it’s 2021, have the presentation over zoom and send an Uber with the medal wife their girlfriend presenting it to them.
 

Trav 20

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 5, 2004
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Wines no chance, will not make top ten according to AFL Media.
Oliver from Bont, Steele, Parish, Petracca, Walsh. All at least 10 votes more than Wines.
It's ridiculous where they rate him.

He's been super consistent in 2021, averaged over 30 disposals, kicked 10 goals, and doesn't really have many players taking votes off him, although Boak will do pretty well.

He'll be right in the mix.
 

HG Pennypacker

Team Captain
Sep 15, 2011
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I think Steele will win. Decent but not amazing team, 10 wins so plenty of 3 vote opportunities and he is a proven vote getter with no real teammates to hurt him. It’s a proven formula to win a Brownlow. Last year he got 20 votes and the next best from the saints had 8.

only thing is that umpires seem to get swept up in it more now and love giving 3 votes to favourites even when they merit 1 or 2 at best. I could see bont just having a string of 3 vote games and taking it but I still like Steele, especially at 6 dollars for the win.

edit - it’s basically what Judd did in 2010. Carlton finished 11-11 and Judd got 30 votes as the clear standout player from the blues ( kade Simpson was next with 9)

another example is GAJ in 2013 - 28 votes in a mediocre team (Prestia next with 9)

clearly steele isn’t on the level of Judd and GAJ but the situations Are very similar
 
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Boppo

Premiership Player
Mar 21, 2008
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Betting apps give you head to heads with players as to who will get the most votes that can be parlayed. Very enticing.
 

stax on the mull

Premiership Player
Dec 26, 2010
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I think Steele will win. Decent but not amazing team, 10 wins so plenty of 3 vote opportunities and he is a proven vote getter with no real teammates to hurt him. It’s a proven formula to win a Brownlow. Last year he got 20 votes and the next best from the saints had 8.

only thing is that umpires seem to get swept up in it more now and love giving 3 votes to favourites even when they merit 1 or 2 at best. I could see bont just having a string of 3 vote games and taking it but I still like Steele, especially at 6 dollars for the win.

edit - it’s basically what Judd did in 2010. Carlton finished 11-11 and Judd got 30 votes as the clear standout player from the blues ( kade Simpson was next with 9)

another example is GAJ in 2013 - 28 votes in a mediocre team (Prestia next with 9)

clearly steele isn’t on the level of Judd and GAJ but the situations Are very similar
In Steele's favour is that he polled 20 votes last year in a side that had 11 wins, so he's not a smokey - already in the umpires mind. (17 out of the 20 votes he polled last season were in winning games)

I went through the stats and saw about 4-5 clear chances where he could get a 3. Most of the other wins there's players like Crouch, Sinclair, Jones, Billings (first half of the season), that have similar or better numbers, plus a couple of other players who have the occasional very good day out (Clark, Higgins, King, Marshall, even delisted Dunstan) in their wins/close losses.

Some of St Kilda's losses were too big for him to get a look in the top 3, although there are a few closer losses where he might pick up more (eg a losing game vs Melb where he gets 26 and kicks 3 goals vs Oliver, Petracca and Salem who all get over 30possessions) - so I can't see him polling enough to get much more than last year. Optimistically in the 25 range, which hasn't been enough in recent years.
 
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random260

Club Legend
Apr 20, 2013
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YEAHH BOIII LOOKING forward to the WA hero Ben Cousins return! Always felt he was the sober and clean Ben could work as a sport commentator like Jobe Watson. Welcome home benny boi
 

hutchy31

Norm Smith Medallist
May 25, 2014
5,532
7,488
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Wines no chance, will not make top ten according to AFL Media.
Oliver from Bont, Steele, Parish, Petracca, Walsh. All at least 10 votes more than Wines.
He’s got the biggest range imo. I can’t see Bont or Oliver getting much less than 27 each, but also not much more than 30/31. Wines could get 20 or 34/35.

If the umpires value pure possessions - particularly contested - in the Port games I think Wines comes home with a wet sail and wins. If not then Aliir, Amon and a couple of others will be a factor.

Should be a good count because I think Petracca and Bont will be up there and be run down by the others in the last few rounds.
 

Pie eyed

Premium Platinum
Jun 26, 2007
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I was keen to watch the Brownlow until I saw Nathan Brown was on the show.

He'll spend the entire night bullshitting on about gambling.

Sportsbet can go and get f’ed. Hard.

AFL have lost the plot.
 

StillAtLarge

Norm Smith Medallist
May 12, 2015
7,052
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AFL Club
Hawthorn
He’s got the biggest range imo. I can’t see Bont or Oliver getting much less than 27 each, but also not much more than 30/31. Wines could get 20 or 34/35.

If the umpires value pure possessions - particularly contested - in the Port games I think Wines comes home with a wet sail and wins. If not then Aliir, Amon and a couple of others will be a factor.

Should be a good count because I think Petracca and Bont will be up there and be run down by the others in the last few rounds.
Boak will take a bunch of votes off Wines. Can't see Amon or Allir polling all that many (I rate both higher than Boak in terms of output/influence on games)
 

Roobs321

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 28, 2008
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I had no clue the Brownlow was on tonight until I happened to glance at the tv guide a moment ago.

SUNDAY NIGHT in case you were like me. Apparently it was the same last year.
 

JimmyMann

Goal Kicking Coach
Nov 19, 2017
241
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Melbourne
AFL Club
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I think Steele will win. Decent but not amazing team, 10 wins so plenty of 3 vote opportunities and he is a proven vote getter with no real teammates to hurt him. It’s a proven formula to win a Brownlow. Last year he got 20 votes and the next best from the saints had 8.

only thing is that umpires seem to get swept up in it more now and love giving 3 votes to favourites even when they merit 1 or 2 at best. I could see bont just having a string of 3 vote games and taking it but I still like Steele, especially at 6 dollars for the win.

edit - it’s basically what Judd did in 2010. Carlton finished 11-11 and Judd got 30 votes as the clear standout player from the blues ( kade Simpson was next with 9)

another example is GAJ in 2013 - 28 votes in a mediocre team (Prestia next with 9)

clearly steele isn’t on the level of Judd and GAJ but the situations Are very similar
It's gonna be interesting, I think he's being slightly underrated going in but it's just so tough given the 3 guys above him are gonna have so many opportunities to poll on top teams.

The one thing as you've said Steele has going for him is the guys ahead of him have vote stealers on their teams (Boak, Gawn/Petracca, Macrae). I can't see him finishing less than 25 votes on the night, just gonna come down to whether 30 is good enough. Indicator tonight will be where he sits at Rd 10 - he's predicted to only have 6 votes by then but that's the only place he'll find them - could sneak some additional 1s in losses to the Dons and Dees early on + for the hawks win and if that goes right for him he's a big chance to overrun the others.

Oliver is still the safest pick for me, he'll poll in the most games and I think most predictions already have accounted for him losing votes to Petracca but still ending in the 30s.
 

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