Analysis Bulldogs 2020 - What to expect?

AjsGuns

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4-6 IMO. Our draw is also decent since we finished in the 7-12 bracket.

Ahead on paper:
Richmond
West Coast
GWS
Collingwood

Good teams, but I'd have behind us:
Brisbane & Geelong. Also think Melbourne will be back with their soft draw, better preseason and not getting ahead of themselves.
 

RunningBounce

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Jun 12, 2013
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Predictions are a mugs game, but I reckon this Dogs team should win more than they lose over the next few years.

They have a strong list, and its young. Case in point - Mitch Wallis couldn't get a game. Granted, his not gunna win a Brownlow, but having a 133 game, premiership player in your VFL team is a good indication that the list is strong. Trengove was in and out of the side too. And a fit, firing Libba would walk into most team's 22.

I reckon their game style is compelling. Once they get things on their terms, they own the game. They don't kick enough goals, and they don't kick straight enough, but another viable KPF should open up some dangerous space inside their attacking 50, at the very least. Another doubt is whether they can turn things around once the oppo get rolling. Should be easier for them to do that in the future, as English gets stronger. That centre bounce unit is gunna be hard to beat. And adding Keath down back can't hurt.

I think we're hard to get a read on.
100%

IMO, the Dogs are hard to get a read on because Bevo. Genius. Fool. Neither and both. Selection and positional decisions must drive Dogs supporters into rapture and despair, on a weekly rotation. Exhibit A - Caleb Daniel on the HBF. Sometimes, he looked like an AA lock. Others, he looked like an u12 player on a hiding to nothing. Dunkley started 2019 as a pressure forward...

There are always uncertainities - weather, injury, fixture, poxy rule changes - but whether Bevo's cunning plan works or not is possibility the most important factor in how many games the Dogs win next year.
 

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Yojimbo

Norm Smith Medallist
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Exhibit A - Caleb Daniel on the HBF. Sometimes, he looked like an AA lock. Others, he looked like an u12 player on a hiding to nothing.
Under 12's player is better than an Auskicker, just a tip from someone who knows never suggest we played
better without Caleb Daniel it does not end well.

Congratulations on the flag. :thumbsu:
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
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You may want to compare the two teams the GWS Giants fielded in Round 22 compared to the Elimination Final
in relation to young teams and ponder the experience added. Don't lose that mirror it comes in handy at times.
R22

Screenshot from 2020-01-09 12-17-04.png


R23

Screenshot from 2020-01-09 12-16-42.png

EF

Screenshot from 2020-01-09 12-14-48.png

Fair point, the Giants were very unsettled over that period, and they got plenty of good players back by finals.

That said, the R22 Dogs were still younger than the R22 Giants by more than 8 months, and less experienced as well (by a little).

That gap became truly enormous by the EF, where the Dogs were two years and three months younger than the Giants on average, with only 77 games played to 114.
 

RunningBounce

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Under 12's player is better than an Auskicker, just a tip from someone who knows never suggest we played
better without Caleb Daniel it does not end well.

Congratulations on the flag. :thumbsu:
Thanks.

Bloody love Caleb. His a fantastic player and really made a fist of it when he got stuck one-out against the big forwards. I don't think I saw a single occasion where that situation was his "fault". And as you say, the Dogs always look better with him in the team.

I'd take him at Punt Rd in a heartbeat, but not sure it's really playing to his strengths to have him defending in the back half. Maybe wing is his natural position? A victim of having two of the better wingers in the comp ahead of him? So Bev, always creative, tried HBF to get him in the 22? Dunno.
 

THE_GUN

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Injury withstanding, I am expecting a top 4 finish from them in 2020. I think it's hard for them to miss with that midfield and confidence that they built on towards the end of the 2019 season. I expect a minimum of 15 wins.
Agree

I have the Doggies as a top 4 team in 2020 and would be extremely surprised if they were not
Richmond - West Coast - Bulldogs - Giants

They have the talent and game plan to topple plenty of teams and i think their payers are not at an age where they are mature enough to take it to the next level.
Bontempelli , Dunkley , MaCrae , Smith , West , Richards , Daniel , Naughton , English there is a hell of alot of young talent there thats ready to take the next step the first 3 imo have already established their credentials and are Gun players already.
 

Yojimbo

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Thanks.

Bloody love Caleb. His a fantastic player and really made a fist of it when he got stuck one-out against the big forwards. I don't think I saw a single occasion where that situation was his "fault". And as you say, the Dogs always look better with him in the team.

I'd take him at Punt Rd in a heartbeat, but not sure it's really playing to his strengths to have him defending in the back half. Maybe wing is his natural position? A victim of having two of the better wingers in the comp ahead of him? So Bev, always creative, tried HBF to get him in the 22? Dunno.
Hawthorn did a similar thing with Sam Mitchell another player notorious for his skills, but not the most gifted
player athletically when they moved him to half back. Caleb Daniel has made the most of his football gifts
and he is a good footballer despite his diminutive size. I am glad he got drafted because he helps open the
eyes of the recruiters that all players don't have to be six foot tall. When i do best 22's he is usually on the
bench as i don't view him as a positional player or structural in anyway, but i admire his will to succeed and
his ability. They should bring back the tri-coloured helmet and ditch that stinky black one he has worn since
he was eight years old, could be marketing gold top seller at the Bulldog's shop.
 

GREENESHOOTS

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The Bulldogs have a super talented list and shored up their weaknesses really well in the off season. The concern is their toughness, other teams will no doubt copy the GWS approach and try and bully them into the ground. They will be physically stronger but still a young side but I do not see any Dogs players stand out as hard men who are really up for it, maybe Dunkley comes to mind. It will be a question of mental toughness or fragility whether they can take or give back the beating they receive.
 

Boyd oh Boyd

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Nov 29, 2018
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Agreed we should be aiming for top 4, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish 7th or 8th if we're unlucky. Every team is going to try tagging Bont and Hunter which is how GWS killed us. Bont needs a really good tagger to be shut down but Hunter should be easier (Carlton tagged him and it hurt us a lot). There's no guarantees as effort week in week out from the younger crop like Naughton, Richards, Lipinski, Smith. And we had a fairly good injury run in '19 with our core playing every game. If we can avoid/adapt to this stuff we should be top 4.

I think the biggest question mark is still out KPDs. Keath played most of the year as a third tall/interceptor. Can we play him on the athletic talls as well or do we need to stick with Cordy and let Keath intercept? Then what happens with Wood? Bevo will shuffle some magnets around early in the year I'm sure of that.
 

Bulldog Joe

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The Bulldogs have a super talented list and shored up their weaknesses really well in the off season. The concern is their toughness, other teams will no doubt copy the GWS approach and try and bully them into the ground. They will be physically stronger but still a young side but I do not see any Dogs players stand out as hard men who are really up for it, maybe Dunkley comes to mind. It will be a question of mental toughness or fragility whether they can take or give back the beating they receive.
If we get Libba and/or Wallis on the park we improve our hardness, but I don't believe the GWS final is truly indicative of our hardness.

We were certainly bullied in that game and appeared unprepared for it, but that was the only time we had that sort of issue.

Expect that we will field a more experienced team for the greater part of 2020 with more hardness from the more senior bodies in the team.
 

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Dogs_r_barking

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The Bulldogs have a super talented list and shored up their weaknesses really well in the off season. The concern is their toughness, other teams will no doubt copy the GWS approach and try and bully them into the ground. They will be physically stronger but still a young side but I do not see any Dogs players stand out as hard men who are really up for it, maybe Dunkley comes to mind. It will be a question of mental toughness or fragility whether they can take or give back the beating they receive.
The team we fielded in the EF was incredibly young, Bevo is a genius sometimes but he can be stuff it up as well, playing a first gamer, even if he is the son of Bulldog legend was a mistake. We also had a lot of senior players missing who are quick to fly the flag I.e. Libba. If any other team thinks they can replicate GWS, they will be in for a shock as the players and coach are filthy on this from all reports.
 

KissKiss

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That said, the R22 Dogs were still younger than the R22 Giants by more than 8 months, and less experienced as well (by a little).

That gap became truly enormous by the EF, where the Dogs were two years and three months younger than the Giants on average, with only 77 games played to 114.
From the analysis on the lions board over the last few years its been pretty clear that when the experience gap opens up like that we have generally been getting beaten badly. Under a hundred games average experience seems to be a pretty big tipping point
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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From the analysis on the lions board over the last few years its been pretty clear that when the experience gap opens up like that we have generally been getting beaten badly. Under a hundred games average experience seems to be a pretty big tipping point
Ron The Bear always has good stats on this kind of thing. Like this!
Record of older teams in all games

Age diffPlayedWLDWin %
< 0.54843246523334551.36
0.5 - 14122227418064255.68
1 - 1.52865167911523459.20
1.5 - 2180611406471963.65
2 - 2.59776483181166.89
2.5 - 3482335143469.92
> 331224762379.65

That's a pretty compelling linear relationship over 122 seasons, when nothing else is known about the two teams.
 

Elmer_Judd

#Teague2020
Jul 25, 2019
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I have them finishing 13th. They have one good player.
That is still one more good player than Essendon at any rate.

Dogs have the potential to either finish top 4, if not top 2, or miss the eight all together, one of the most naturally talented lists (collectively) in the league,but they need to stop losing to bottom rung teams on their home turf (such as us and the Suns last year, for example)

Going to keep a keen eye out on that Tim English, If he develops and improves as hoped/expected in 2020, The Doggies will be a serious player, although Naughton will be a massive loss for them.

Back onto my original comment, I find it incredible how an Essendon fan can slander the Dogs, given they gave The Bombers the mother of all hidings last season (that first half in that game by The Dons was country/pub league level thrashing bad)
 

Butler40

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Bruce is handy and Naughton just lead the league in contested marks in his first year playing as a forward at 19 years of age.
I agree almost every premiership team has a big dominant forward over history. The doggies did it in 2016 but I think they got lucky but good on them. Most of the top 8 teams have at least 1 big man in the forward line that can kick 60+ goals for the year.
 

Elmer_Judd

#Teague2020
Jul 25, 2019
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Just like when Richmond copped a hiding from the Swans in Round 23 2016 and then came back and won a flag the next year? A lot happens over the course of an offseason, but thanks for your comment, low-IQ guy.
What is low-IQ guy kind of stuff is suggesting that The Dogs have only got one good player.
 

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