C.Guthrie v Menegola

[Larry Donohue]

Menegola easily but neither will be dropped.

Big call.
We still have tuohy bews cockatoo Fogarty s.selwood to potentially come into the best 22.
Stanley
Tuohy
Parfitt
Ablett
Cockatoo
Clark
Taylor
Kolo
Kelly
Fogarty
Selwood
Scooter
Ratagolea
Constable
Narkle
Duncan
Rohan
Bews
Henderson
Hawkins
Menegola
Guthrie
Atkins
Dangerfield
Henry
Dahlhaus
O'Connor
stewart
Blicavs
That is 29 players potentially best 22
Which 7 if all available at finals time will miss out??

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think they are more likely to drop Atkins and push Menegola back to a half forward role if push comes to shove. Menegola wasn't great on Monday but his first three games were decent - I think the drop in output is partly because he's playing further up the ground.

I agree with this. Both are good players down in form off interrupted pre seasons but Menegola is a good goalkicker whereas Guthrie is more a tagger when we need it/small defender they are not competing for the same spot. I love what Atkins does and he is needed depth as we have some kids at the bottom end of the list who arent ready but i think he is a solid 22-28 depth player when we have a fit list whereas Menegola and Guthrie offer more.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Big call.
We still have tuohy bews cockatoo Fogarty s.selwood to potentially come into the best 22.
Stanley
Tuohy
Parfitt
Ablett
Cockatoo
Clark
Taylor
Kolo
Kelly
Fogarty
Selwood
Scooter
Ratagolea
Constable
Narkle
Duncan
Rohan
Bews
Henderson
Hawkins
Menegola
Guthrie
Atkins
Dangerfield
Henry
Dahlhaus
O'Connor
stewart
Blicavs
That is 29 players potentially best 22
Which 7 if all available at finals time will miss out??

Tuohy is the only in you listed who is ahead of Menegola and Guthrie. Bews Fogarty Selwood arent ahead of them yet and im not convinced Cockatoo is and he is perenially injured anyway.

 

[Larry Donohue]

Tuohy is the only in you listed who is ahead of Menegola and Guthrie. Bews Fogarty Selwood arent ahead of them yet and im not convinced Cockatoo is and he is perenially injured anyway.

True, but you need to take 7 out of that list, not just 4. hard calls to be made. i hope he stays with the four kids

 

[FredLeDeux]

True, but you need to take 7 out of that list, not just 4. hard calls to be made. i hope he stays with the four kids

8 if you add Miers to your list.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

That's one of the most absurd criticisms I've seen of Guthrie. He had his break our period over the 2013 finals when he was probably our best player, was probably bog in the 2016 QF, was arguably our best in the 2014 QF, kept Martin under wraps until injured in 2017 and was far from our worst last year. He's one of our only players whose finals form is clearly a step up on his home and away form.

No way. That was Selwood by a considerable margin. No Geelong player was close to his level that night.

 

[CatRiot]

Is it just me, or has Menegola's output dropped this season? Or does he have a different role? (the role seems the same to me)

Maybe its because of his injury interrupted preseason.

 

[Footy Smarts]

No way. That was Selwood by a considerable margin. No Geelong player was close to his level that night.

True. Not sure how I missed that. Guthrie was still good that night and the point so stands that his finals performances have been on average better than his h&a performances.

 

[Vdubs]

Both useless in finals

Not true about Guthrie, unless you're a recent supporter

 

[catempire]

Is it just me, or has Menegola's output dropped this season? Or does he have a different role? (the role seems the same to me)

Maybe its because of his injury interrupted preseason.

Not just you. He has gone from 20th in 2018 AFL player ratings to 252 in 2019:

 

[FredLeDeux]

No just you. He has gone from 20th in 2018 AFL player ratings to 252 in 2019:

That 20th ranking was always pretty dodgy, and owed a good deal to a couple of quirks in CD definitions of DE% and individual clearance attributions.

 

[catempire]

That 20th ranking was always pretty dodgy, and owed a good deal to a couple of quirks in CD definitions of DE% and individual clearance attributions.

Hard for quirks to drive a season result. Individual games maybe.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Hard for quirks to drive a season result. Individual games maybe.

No, it's down to 3 consistent features of his play
- "pass the buck" 1-2 metre handpasses in traffic load his DE% with 100%ers
- ditto his regular 40m+ kicks to a contest in the forward line
- if the lucky recipient of the indecisive super-short handpasses (Dangerfield, Selwood, etc) manages to get the ball out, Menegola gets the credit for the clearance.

He's a handy player. He gets the ball and that's the most important element for any attacking on-baller. But the 20th ranking did not reflect his true value either at Geelong or in the comp generally.

 

[catempire]

No, it's down to 3 consistent features of his play
- "pass the buck" 1-2 metre handpasses in traffic load his DE% with 100%ers
- ditto his regular 40m+ kicks to a contest in the forward line
- if the lucky recipient of the indecisive super-short handpasses (Dangerfield, Selwood, etc) manages to get the ball out, Menegola gets the credit for the clearance.

He's a handy player. He gets the ball and that's the most important element for any attacking on-baller. But the 20th ranking did not reflect his true value either at Geelong or in the comp generally.

Amazing effort to keep up the charade for three seasons while the objective criteria seemingly evade other “handy” players. Also impressive that the top of the rankings is otherwise a who’s who of the AFL.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I

Amazing effort to keep up the charade for three seasons while the objective criteria seemingly evade other “handy” players. Also impressive that the top of the rankings is otherwise a who’s who of the AFL.

"Charade"
I don't think he, or any other player, aims to take advantage of these quirks in the rating system in order to enhance his rankings, it's just the way he plays.

 

[catempire]

I

"Charade"
I don't think he, or any other player, aims to take advantage of these quirks in the rating system in order to enhance his rankings, it's just the way he plays.

Cool. Couple of points:

1. Menegola is not impressive in either his clearance or DE stats which says they don't have explanatory power in the rankings.

2. AFL Player Ratings are not Champion Data ranking points. You don't get points for merely getting a clearance or an effective disposal (as you do under CD rankings). Under the AFL Player Ratings points are accrued as follows:

...we are assessing every single action of every player, determining the impact of that action, and providing points – either positive or negative – toward that player's rating compared to his peers.

Along with the obvious acts such as goals, marks and disposals, we've included intercepts, spoils, kicking to a contest, smothers, chasing, corralling and many other 'one-percenters' - along with where and when they occurred - to paint a complete picture of ever player's impact on a game.
...

How is each player's rating worked out?
Players accrue or lose points every time they are involved in a passage of play. The score awarded to them each time they are in the play is determined by a complex algorithm formulated and refined over a number of years by Champion Data. Players accrue or lose points depending on whether they have a positive or negative impact on a passage of play.

While we don't get to see inside the black box of this 'algorithm' to see how they weight various actions by players and how they assign points to each, it is clear that a player who rates highly for a number of seasons is there because he rates well under their system as described above (i.e. he must consistently and heavily contribute a 'positive' impact). It doesn't fit with a narrative that he is the beneficiary of quirks of clearance and DE measurement.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Cool. Couple of points:

1. Menegola is not impressive in either his clearance or DE stats which says they don't have explanatory power in the rankings.

2. AFL Player Ratings are not Champion Data ranking points. You don't get points for merely getting a clearance or an effective disposal (as you do under CD rankings). Under the AFL Player Ratings points are accrued as follows:



While we don't get to see inside the black box of this 'algorithm' to see how they weight various actions by players and how they assign points to each, it is clear that a player who rates highly for a number of seasons is there because he rates well under their system as described above (i.e. he must consistently and heavily contribute a 'positive' impact). It doesn't fit with a narrative that he is the beneficiary of quirks of clearance and DE measurement.

It seems to me to be remote to the point of invisibility that when CD designed their new secret "algorithm" they either ditched or downgraded the importance of any of their beloved bastard children, especially ones they have always blessed as highly important in their "positive" effect on team performance.

 

[year of the cat]

I agree with this. Both are good players down in form off interrupted pre seasons but Menegola is a good goalkicker whereas Guthrie is more a tagger when we need it/small defender they are not competing for the same spot. I love what Atkins does and he is needed depth as we have some kids at the bottom end of the list who arent ready but i think he is a solid 22-28 depth player when we have a fit list whereas Menegola and Guthrie offer more.

Just on Atkins, I was quite impressed on Monday when they threw him into a couple of centre bounces his ability to win first hands. Was better than some of the bigger names in our team.

 

[catempire]

It seems to me to be remote to the point of invisibility that when CD designed their new secret "algorithm" they either ditched or downgraded the importance of any of their beloved bastard children, especially ones they have always blessed as highly important in their "positive" effect on team performance.

I'll make it visible for you. CD and AFL Player Ratings for Easter Monday for Geelong players:

Kelly 129/18
Dangerfield 127/23
Stanley 119/25
Rohan 105/23
Ablett 103/18
Selwood 97/12
Taylor 97/18
Blicavs 94/13
Guthrie 87/9
Dahlhaus 86/5
O'Connor 85/15
Duncan 82/13
Stewart 78/7
Miers 78/12
Hawkins 73/2
Atkins 63/8
Kolodjashnij 53/9
Henry 52/9
Menegola 50/3
Clark 44/4
Parfitt 35/5
Ratugolea 25/-4

There is some correlation but they are not the same thing. They are not the same thing because the inputs to each are different. One of the biggest differences is that under CD you can't earn negative points. A clearance will always be positive under CD whereas a clearance that ends up with the opposition kicking a goal will be negative under APR.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I'll make it visible for you. CD and AFL Player Ratings for Easter Monday for Geelong players:

Kelly 129/18
Dangerfield 127/23
Stanley 119/25
Rohan 105/23
Ablett 103/18
Selwood 97/12
Taylor 97/18
Blicavs 94/13
Guthrie 87/9
Dahlhaus 86/5
O'Connor 85/15
Duncan 82/13
Stewart 78/7
Miers 78/12
Hawkins 73/2
Atkins 63/8
Kolodjashnij 53/9
Henry 52/9
Menegola 50/3
Clark 44/4
Parfitt 35/5
Ratugolea 25/-4

There is some correlation but they are not the same thing. They are not the same thing because the inputs to each are different. One of the biggest differences is that under CD you can't earn negative points. A clearance will always be positive whereas a clearance that ends up with the opposition kicking a goal will be negative under APR.

Just as a matter of interest, if it's not down to defects in the ranking system, to what do you attribute the massive disconnect between his relative "Player Ranking", and his ratings by (a) Geelong and other football followers and (b) the Geelong MC as reflected in the B&F voting?

 

[catempire]

Just as a matter of interest, if it's not down to defects in the ranking system, to what do you attribute the massive disconnect between his relative "Player Ranking", and his ratings by (a) Geelong and other football followers and (b) the Geelong MC as reflected in the B&F voting?

His underrating on this board is easily the most confounding phenomena I have encountered in 15 years here. I have no explanation for that.

He finished 9th in the 2018 Carji (6th in 2017) which reflects the nature of B&F awards which reward "doing your job" above just about everything else except sheer brilliance (e.g. Dangerfield/Kelly). That's why a lot of defenders make it into the top part of the B&F results (four of the 2018 top 10 were defenders and five of the top 10 in 2017 were) whereas they feature nowhere near the top in objective rankings.

 

[FredLeDeux]

His underrating on this board is easily the most confounding phenomena I have encountered in 15 years here. I have no explanation for that.

He finished 9th in the 2018 Carji (6th in 2017) which reflects the nature of B&F awards which reward "doing your job" above just about everything else except sheer brilliance (e.g. Dangerfield/Kelly). That's why a lot of defenders make it into the top part of the B&F results (four of the 2018 top 10 were defenders and five of the top 10 in 2017 were) whereas they feature nowhere near the top in objective rankings.

Are you saying you think he's the 20th best player in the League?

 

[catempire]

Are you saying you think he's the 20th best player in the League?

Nope.

 

[PatrickBateman]

Menegola is clearly the superior player. Treated unfairly on this board by too many.

It's an opportune time to raise this question as Menegola's last 2 games have been well below his standard, his first 3 games were good though (2 of them very good). Guthrie was OK on the weekend, yet people (as usual) are pumping him up for being his average best.

Menegola is a player who has had to earn every bit of respect afforded to him - who got dropped at the start of 2017 when his form was actually good, Guthrie is one who was handed respect without it being earned - due to assumed potential star value. This I believe has impacted Guthrie's progression career wise. He's not progressed at all in 3 years.

Guthrie may be more talented but those saying he has more 'upside' are incorrect in reality.

Look at both players Brownlow vote totals as an example, which is a great measure of ability to impact a game (only 3 players out of 44 in a given game get votes!) by most measures, especially considering 'upside':

Guthrie - Games 142, Brownlow votes 9
Menegola - Games 58, Brownlow votes 15

This is a very, very poor statistic for Guthrie. Telling. A player with the opportunity he's had - the positions he's played, the amount of wins the team has had, this stat is horrendous.

Champion data rates Menegola a lot higher than Guthrie too - effectiveness. Anyone with even an average ability to read the game would know this without needing stats.

 

[Drunkcat]

Menegola had no pre-season with his injurie so will take him a few rds to catch up if you can with no pre-season