Analysis Caleb Daniel - elite half-back or defensive liability?

lachy

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Fair point. I'll say then that a lot of people had the opinion he should be dropped while playing forward in 2018. Luke Beveridge has the opinion he was playing at an AA level before his injury this year.

History represents what happened, yep and it was an instantaneous turnaround in form once he moved position. You could say he's developed and would be better now as a forward but his development as a player also applies to him playing back in the same time. We have true instance of him moving position and the immediate impact that made in his output though. You could hang hopes on his development since then but it makes no sense so think it wouldn't apply across the board.
If you read what I have said earlier in this thread I have not said he should never be played back, in fact have no issue with him taking some kickins, I just would like to see him used in a position where his positives are of more value to the team and team results and his negatives are exposed less. Sometimes there will be a role in the backline he just simply is not a key to the back 6
 

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fpcookie

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And instead of listening to footy podcasts I will just stick to talking with line coaches, strategic analysts (form a couple of clubs) and those involved in the coaching side of football to determine the best use of data in AFL which you are quite rightly saying lags quite severely in the AFL as interpretations of what stats mean is actually quite difficult to quantify in our game due to the nature of our game
Just on this, I don't think it has lagged due to interpretations. I actually think they are quite well understood by those that matter and are using them effectively. It has lagged simply due to a slow uptake and a wariness of the benefits. The same thing happened in the NBA, some teams were stuck in the old school way of thinking and got passed by. Now all teams employ data scientists and analytic specialists. AFL has started this process but it isn't there yet.
 

lachy

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Yep and as I said they're there to support what I've seen. On a forum however when 10 people say they all saw different things, the data gives an indication of what likely really happened as it's objective.
I don't disagree, but I am not one of them. I am not a proponent of using stats solely to support my opinion, nor what I see but a combination of all factors on of which includes actual win loss ratio's for the team as it is a team game
 

lachy

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Just on this, I don't think it has lagged due to interpretations. I actually think they are quite well understood by those that matter and are using them effectively. It has lagged simply due to a slow uptake and a wariness of the benefits. The same thing happened in the NBA, some teams were stuck in the old school way of thinking and got passed by. Now all teams employ data scientists and analytic specialists. AFL has started this process but it isn't there yet.
This may be true but most I have spoken to involved at AFL level and a few at VFL level would disagree. It is however an opinion too
 

immortalmike

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The issue with the use of statistics in football is not the statistics themselves. They are a tool and as such are only as useful as the person using them.
Unfortunately we have a lot of amateurs using professional tools and in the process poking out their eye.
 

BallaratBulldog

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The issue with the use of statistics in football is not the statistics themselves. They are a tool and as such are only as useful as the person using them.
Unfortunately we have a lot of amateurs using professional tools and in the process poking out their eye.
Even then, it's better than spewing random comments. At lest you have a reason and some support behind it. If another person has different interpretation or another stat then the dicussion is moving forward.
 

lachy

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The issue with the use of statistics in football is not the statistics themselves. They are a tool and as such are only as useful as the person using them.
Unfortunately we have a lot of amateurs using professional tools and in the process poking out their eye.
Very true. But in fairness it is a very hard game to get meaningful stats.

Case in point against us Essendon were smashed in contested footy and this was a reason we smashed them

Last week they were smashed (-50+) in contested footy, they won, this was a reason .....
 

fpcookie

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If you read what I have said earlier in this thread I have not said he should never be played back, in fact have no issue with him taking some kickins, I just would like to see him used in a position where his positives are of more value to the team and team results and his negatives are exposed less. Sometimes there will be a role in the backline he just simply is not a key to the back 6
Yep and stefoid (and others) have argued why the backline actually is his best role. No rebuttal to their points as yet I think.

I don't disagree, but I am not one of them. I am not a proponent of using stats solely to support my opinion, nor what I see but a combination of all factors on of which includes actual win loss ratio's for the team as it is a team game
this is a stat.
 
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fpcookie

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Very true. But in fairness it is a very hard game to get meaningful stats.

Case in point against us Essendon were smashed in contested footy and this was a reason we smashed them

Last week they were smashed (-50+) in contested footy, they won, this was a reason .....
Maybe you're trying to read things into things that aren't meant to be read into.

If the stat says we lost contested by 50, that's all it's saying. To connect it straight to the end result is never going to work.
 

mattwa

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This thread should be taken down its insanity and poor form to slag off one of the players who you know every week tries his guts out and is a star
 

Charlie Bucket

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Very true. But in fairness it is a very hard game to get meaningful stats.

Case in point against us Essendon were smashed in contested footy and this was a reason we smashed them

Last week they were smashed (-50+) in contested footy, they won, this was a reason .....
Then you look at other statistical differences. Inside 50’s, marks inside 50, tackles inside 50 , fwd line workrate. Freo dropped their bundle somewhere along the line and there will be stats to show this.
Stats cover everything you see as an observer and so much more you don’t.
 

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Dazb86

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Slightly off topic but does anyone else think HFF must be hard to play in this set up? Nearly every player we send to HF drops right off with their impact on games.
 

lachy

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Yep and stefoid (and others) have argued why the backline actually is his best role. No rebuttal to their points as yet I think.

this is a stat.
Firstly their have been may rebuttals, over various threads mine included, though I am not against him as strongly as others being in the backline for periods of time. Like all posters they are merely opinions. What makes a personal stat a stronger argument than a team stat?

One thing I would argue, and yes win loss is a stat, it is also the only stat that gives you points on the ladder to determine where you finish as well as in finals it determines how far you go. Please explain how this stat is not by far and away the most definitive, comprehensive and only stat that really matters at the end of the day?
 

lachy

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Then you look at other statistical differences. Inside 50’s, marks inside 50, tackles inside 50 , fwd line workrate. Freo dropped their bundle somewhere along the line and there will be stats to show this.
Stats cover everything you see as an observer and so much more you don’t.
CB is there a stat that measures an effective possession that actually puts the ball carrier under that much pressure that the ball is then turned over?
Is there a stat of dropped marks under pressure as opposed to dropped marks under pressure?
What is the determination of what pressure is for that stat?
What about choosing the wrong option going forward where you have kicked effectively deep into the pocket when someone was free directly in front 30 meters out?

Point is stats cannot measure decision making accurately, they cannot measure truly both direct and inferred pressure, they cannot measure structural set ups, they cannot measure genuine 2 way football they cannot measure intuition, courage and a host of other elements than can happen at anytime during a game. They cannot measure for example the difference between a good handball and an exceptional handball both of which may result in a goal but one of them created a goal from nothing.

Football as it happens is a contest by contest sport played with an oval ball that has way too many elements to actually measure statistically for statistics to be the be all an end all.
 

fpcookie

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Firstly their have been may rebuttals, over various threads mine included, though I am not against him as strongly as others being in the backline for periods of time. Like all posters they are merely opinions. What makes a personal stat a stronger argument than a team stat?

One thing I would argue, and yes win loss is a stat, it is also the only stat that gives you points on the ladder to determine where you finish as well as in finals it determines how far you go. Please explain how this stat is not by far and away the most definitive, comprehensive and only stat that really matters at the end of the day?
No stat is stronger than another. They are just stats. They say just what they say. I think you might be trying to read too much into them.

If over a longer period of time, it was shown that Caleb's selection in the back line had a direct impact on W/L it would certainly be a strong piece of evidence that would likely change my position (I think you'd need at least 25-30 games with and without him to judge accurately). At this time he's missed four games and at that sample size you can't really attribute those Ls to his inclusion/exclusion when there's about 1000 other factors at play to determine whether the side wins or loses.
 

lachy

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No stat is stronger than another. They are just stats. They say just what they say. I think you might be trying to read too much into them.

If over a longer period of time, it was shown that Caleb's selection in the back line had a direct impact on W/L it would certainly be a strong piece of evidence that would likely change my position (I think you'd need at least 25-30 games with and without him to judge accurately). At this time he's missed four games and at that sample size you can't really attribute those Ls to his inclusion/exclusion when there's about 1000 other factors at play to determine whether the side wins or loses.
I don't disagree, and haven't at anytime which is why I found your original response in the dreaded game day thread perplexing.

All I have been saying is too much is being read into statistics, so I have actually been saying the opposite to actually reading too much into them myself, to justify a posters opinion, whatever poster. An argument to say our backline is better with Caleb in there based on his personal statistics is not that strong when results show they are not that relevant to the argument. That also works the other way too though.

My opinion is having Durea, Crozier, JJ and Scukling as the 4 smalls rotating through the backline is working is extremely well and if Caleb became available I would not change that.

However, to push deep into finals we are lacking a small forward who has all of the skill set Caleb has developed over the last 12 months so if he became available again this year, which I hope he does he could be a damaging and surprising weapon.

I would also like to see him tried down there next season, like Naughton this year, to see if we can have a forward line that compliments one of the best midfields to be a series threat in the competition.
 

LondonBulldog

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This thread should be taken down its insanity and poor form to slag off one of the players who you know every week tries his guts out and is a star
No one is slagging him off. I like CD and know he belongs in our side, just prefer it to not be in the backline.

A forum is all about debate, that the point of a forum in the first place.
 

Zgope1

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i actually think this year playing him at half back is not a good option for the doggie boys. he is an incredible user and has beautifully clean hands and feet but:

we have a stack of good ball using half backs that have 85% of his strength without having his clear weaknesses. JJ, Suckling, Duryea, Williams and especially Crozier are plenty when you consider our guard wings and half forwards (the ones tasked with the defensive running to give defenders outlets) Hunter, Macrae, Lloyd and Dickson are very honest in their outputs.

i don't think ball use from the back half is an issue for the dogs at all.

i love Caleb but i'd utilise his skills upfield and keep his ability as a half back as an option in the back pocket. It's very useful when we play teams like Richmond where the precise release kick on half back is essential to cutting them open. As it stands though, we're playing strong enough to beat the doors down going more direct, and taking advantage of hard running when we're ahead in the midfield battle to get some ball movement variation.
 

Mattdougie

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In the entire history of football has there EVER been a 168cm backline GUN??

Perhaps there is a reason for that?

I like Caleb as a footy player but our backline has been far superior the last month and he has been absent. The team improvement has definitely been a factor in this and Caleb is not the reason the backline was poor but there is no spot for him now in the back 6
 

Yojimbo

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This thread should be taken down its insanity and poor form to slag off one of the players who you know every week tries his guts out and is a star
This is exactly why I did not start the thread in the first place, the Salem mentality. You were the poster
who said how will we manage without CD in the first place, just fine seems to be the answer. No one is
knocking Caleb Daniel at all it's just hard to explain the anomaly in the Points Conceded statistic I can't
and I've looked sometimes A + Y = B sometimes A + B = Y it takes two to tango, Yin and Yang,
Hamish and Andy there are things in life that can't be explained, but we can keep it civil.
 

Charlie Bucket

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CB is there a stat that measures an effective possession that actually puts the ball carrier under that much pressure that the ball is then turned over?
Is there a stat of dropped marks under pressure as opposed to dropped marks under pressure?
What is the determination of what pressure is for that stat?
What about choosing the wrong option going forward where you have kicked effectively deep into the pocket when someone was free directly in front 30 meters out?

Point is stats cannot measure decision making accurately, they cannot measure truly both direct and inferred pressure, they cannot measure structural set ups, they cannot measure genuine 2 way football they cannot measure intuition, courage and a host of other elements than can happen at anytime during a game. They cannot measure for example the difference between a good handball and an exceptional handball both of which may result in a goal but one of them created a goal from nothing.

Football as it happens is a contest by contest sport played with an oval ball that has way too many elements to actually measure statistically for statistics to be the be all an end all.
Lach, nearly everything you mentioned can be measured with stats, you just don’t realise. I’m stuck for time to discuss it but have a think about this...

Oppo player pressure acts
Oppo team pressure rating
Tackles
Turnovers
Effective/ineffective inside 50’s
Disposal efficiency
There’s more but I’ve drawn a blank.

80-90% of what you’ve mentioned can be recorded as statistical data using the stats above. The rest is clutching at straws.

Have a good think about it.
 

Lex22

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What he does do is use the ball well and make good decisions. I don’t like him kicking out from full back, as he hasn’t got the distance of Crozier, JJ or Suckling. I would like him setting up our forwards, as only Bont really feeds our forwards with silk. The likes of Smith, Hunter, Dunks, Macrae aren’t as efficient. I think Daniel forward of the wing would be great for our forward line.
Agreed, this is where I see he best fits. He can be that extra to the contests defensively between the arcs and be that attacking option from say a kick and a half from goal when we need to pull the trigger from a turnover or handball chain.

He’ll naturally accumulate a little more of it than whoever else we have in that role as well.
 

stefoid

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CB is there a stat that measures an effective possession that actually puts the ball carrier under that much pressure that the ball is then turned over?
Is there a stat of dropped marks under pressure as opposed to dropped marks under pressure?
What is the determination of what pressure is for that stat?
What about choosing the wrong option going forward where you have kicked effectively deep into the pocket when someone was free directly in front 30 meters out?

Point is stats cannot measure decision making accurately, they cannot measure truly both direct and inferred pressure, they cannot measure structural set ups, they cannot measure genuine 2 way football they cannot measure intuition, courage and a host of other elements than can happen at anytime during a game. They cannot measure for example the difference between a good handball and an exceptional handball both of which may result in a goal but one of them created a goal from nothing.

Football as it happens is a contest by contest sport played with an oval ball that has way too many elements to actually measure statistically for statistics to be the be all an end all.
FWIW, I like to look at score involvements and pressure acts, as I feel these give a pretty good indication of the quality of a players possessions and defensive output (if they arent a specialist forward or key defender)

Naturally score involvement stat diminishes from the forwards thru to the backs, so comparing them is apples and oranges, but it seems fair to compare defenders with defenders etc... And the pro stats thingy is nice enough to do this for you, colour coding red for shit thru to blue for elite for the area of the ground the play players in.
 

bresker

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As I said in the gameday thread, he's highly skilled but slows us down. He make great decisions, but takes too long. And do those dinky handballs and kicks always lead to goals or do they lead us down blind alleys?

The handball club has been back for the last few weeks but we've been more direct as well.

A combo of both. I'd like to see him take Hayes' position when he comes back
Yes I second that. When he was drafted we were told his elite long distance running made up for his lack of height. Obviously we've discovered that he has many other talents, but he should be an upgrade on Hayes.
 

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