Analysis Caleb Daniel - elite half-back or defensive liability?

stefoid

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well, heres the question for everyone who wants to move him to a wing or forward. Why did he struggle to have an impact in 2018 until shifted to defence? It cant have been injury because his performance improved instantly when he was shifted.

Im in total agreement that he is a good user of the ball, but thats a moot point if he cant get enough of it, or cant run enough to cover his defensive responsibilities. Bev has no time for one way players. No tap dinosaurs or downhill skiers in our team.

Im kind of inventing my own narrative here, of a player who is too slow to play those roles - but has anyone got a better answer?
 
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lachy

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Lach, nearly everything you mentioned can be measured with stats, you just don’t realise. I’m stuck for time to discuss it but have a think about this...

Oppo player pressure acts
Oppo team pressure rating
Tackles
Turnovers
Effective/ineffective inside 50’s
Disposal efficiency
There’s more but I’ve drawn a blank.

80-90% of what you’ve mentioned can be recorded as statistical data using the stats above. The rest is clutching at straws.

Have a good think about it.
I have and really they don't. And using terms like clutching at straws really does not help your argument.

Not one of the stats above measure decision making, which ultimately determines results. Which one measures decision making, the best option? Stoppage structures and set ups? best time to go third man up? Instead of just listing types of stats explain how they measure things like decision making etc

I would ask this and tell me if this is not correct. An effective disposal inside 50 is one where a disposal has gone to your player who has marked inside 50. True or False? If true does it show that there was a more effective opportunity missed by the player disposing of the ball? ie instead of deep in the pocket or 20 meters out directly in front, or are they both effective disposals?

Disposal efficiency measures effective disposals to a team mate, yes or no? Does it measure whether it was the most effective disposal eg a handpass to someone in a worse position when there was a short kick with a team mate wide open? Yes or No

Turnovers. Are they separated by skill or decision making errors?

Anything CAN be measured by stats, and again I am not arguing they are not an important tool, but alot are fundamentally floored in our game and alot are severely over rated.

I have seen stats this year where if you took them is being paramount you would believe one team would have won the game by 10 goals. The actual result was a 10 goal win the other way. I see where some coaches or experts would argue 20 tackles a quarter would be a key determinant in a game. Maybe but if tackles do not force turnovers how do they result in you being in control of the ball to actually kick a winning score

I actually find it amusing you put so much emphasis on stats, which is not saying you are wrong as you are entirely entitled to your opinion, when on most statistics available according to the experts we should never have won the 2016 flag

I do know there is not a club in the AFL not trying to improve the quality of the Stats and trying to get them to be more and more relevant. They may get there sometime, but are still a long way off, but again they are one important tool
 

lachy

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well, heres the question for everyone who wants to move him to a wing or forward. Why did he struggle to have an impact in 2018 until shifted to defence? It cant have been injury because his performance improved instantly when he was shifted.

Im in total agreement that he is a good user of the ball, but thats a moot point if he cant get enough of it, or cant run enough to cover his defensive responsibilities. Bev has no time for one way players. No tap dinosaurs or downhill skiers in our team.

Im kind of inventing my own narrative here, of a player who is too slow to play those roles - but has anyone got a better answer?
It's a fair and reasonable question.

For me it is he has developed aspects of his game substantially since being down back that would make him a different proposition up forward now where we need a gun small forward. He may not be, but I believe he now has the skills and attributes. I don't think wing is right for him, could be wrong there.
 

lachy

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FWIW, I like to look at score involvements and pressure acts, as I feel these give a pretty good indication of the quality of a players possessions and defensive output (if they arent a specialist forward or key defender)

Naturally score involvement stat diminishes from the forwards thru to the backs, so comparing them is apples and oranges, but it seems fair to compare defenders with defenders etc... And the pro stats thingy is nice enough to do this for you, colour coding red for s**t thru to blue for elite for the area of the ground the play players in.
There is no doubt the can be a point of reference, but they are not conclusive proof as they only measure what has happened not what could have happened in other words decision making. It is decision making under pressure in all its facets that coaches spend over 90% of their time on working with the players and playing group. How well the players embrace and take on that instruction goes a long way to how they perform on game day. It is the ability to engage the players and instruct the players in this way that is one of Bev's clear strengths as well as most of the coaching group
 

Mattdougie

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There is no doubt the can be a point of reference, but they are not conclusive proof as they only measure what has happened not what could have happened in other words decision making. It is decision making under pressure in all its facets that coaches spend over 90% of their time on working with the players and playing group. How well the players embrace and take on that instruction goes a long way to how they perform on game day. It is the ability to engage the players and instruct the players in this way that is one of Bev's clear strengths as well as most of the coaching group
The Lions are statistically a very average footy team
 

Yojimbo

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We’re 4-0 in finals while conceding only 71.5 points per game with Fletcher Roberts. Is her our greatest ever full-back? I have my doubts.
Fletcher Roberts (A journey through reality):

51 Games for 4,508 Points Conceded or 88.39 Points Per Game

Fletcher only played the Prelim & GF in 2016, not that I am doubting your Facts and Stats.
 

LittleG

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CD’s problem is three fold:
Lack of ability in 1v1 contests
Lack of foot speed to pressure or create options
Has to slow up to make a decision

I think trying him in M Boyd’s old role has done wonders for CD. But I think he is too slow for modern football.

I would entertain trading him but only IF we have an elite football user with pace to replace him arriving in the same trade period.

He would have value to a team like the Hawks who uses slow precise ball movement. Also to the Crows who need midfield class.
 

stefoid

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Is that last point true? Seems like a quick thinker to me, and has no problem kicking on the run. Its true he might hold onto the ball until other players make position, but thats not the same thing. It takes more than the kicker to make quick direct play work - you have to have teamnmates providing a target upfield. Theres a big difference between quick direct play and just bombing mindlessly to the boundary line.
 

TiAn_

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Fletcher Roberts (A journey through reality):

51 Games for 4,508 Points Conceded or 88.39 Points Per Game

Fletcher only played the Prelim & GF in 2016, not that I am doubting your Facts and Stats.
Honestly who cares if we’re judging individual players based on team scores and win-loss, it’s a dumb exercise.
 

Yojimbo

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Honestly who cares if we’re judging individual players based on team scores and win-loss, it’s a dumb exercise.
There is no I in team, it was an anomaly I found in the statistics I could not explain easily there was no
judgement just the simple question "Why is it so" as it troubled me somewhat. There could be
multiple reasons not just applying to us mind you.
 

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TiAn_

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There is no I in team, it was an anomaly I found in the statistics I could not explain easily there was no
judgement just the simple question "Why is it so" as it troubled me somewhat. There could be
multiple reasons not just applying to us mind you.
I enjoy curiosities of causation and correlation as much as the next man (see: Lachie Hunter thread) but I stop short of nihilism.
 

100action

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He is too big of a defensive liability.

-can't contest 50/50 aerial handballs
-constantly outbodied in the contest
-slow/lacks foot speed
-no longer sticking tackles (!)
-needs time to make a good decision (rarely available)

He is condemned to the HBF Boyd role but gets exposed to bad matchups (taller, pacey forwards).

A depth player tbh and should be traded. The positives he offer doesn't outweight the negatives against competitive sides.
 

Mattdougie

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He is too big of a defensive liability.

-can't contest 50/50 aerial handballs
-constantly outbodied in the contest
-slow/lacks foot speed
-no longer sticking tackles (!)
-needs time to make a good decision (rarely available)

He is condemned to the HBF Boyd role but gets exposed to bad matchups (taller, pacey forwards).

A depth player tbh and should be traded. The positives he offer doesn't outweight the negatives against competitive sides.
The backline marked improvement since he has been out is a sign he isn’t as important as some think.

I always worried about him in the backline and with the way it is functioning now I can’t see him being even close to pushing into our back 6.

Then the question becomes where does he fit in and IF we do get ATM there I no way you can play them both in the forward line.
 

ScragCity

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Stats can't explain everything just like science can't explain why the tide goes in and out every day. Stats can also be manipulated and cherry-picked to say whatever you want them to say much like the "science" of global warming pushed by social justice warriors to bring in a carbon tax to fund transgender childcare centres.
 

cecil

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He is too big of a defensive liability.

-can't contest 50/50 aerial handballs
-constantly outbodied in the contest
-slow/lacks foot speed
-no longer sticking tackles (!)
-needs time to make a good decision (rarely available)

He is condemned to the HBF Boyd role but gets exposed to bad matchups (taller, pacey forwards).

A depth player tbh and should be traded. The positives he offer doesn't outweight the negatives against competitive sides.
Agree with all of that apart from the needing time. He's a great decision maker. He has terrible depth for his kicking though, which makes us easier to set up against.

Trading would be a big call, but if it gave us Keath/Bruce/AMT/Martin then I'd probably do it. All bigger needs, and we can easily push Richards back and pick up another depth HBF.
 

ThirdLegUp

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Stats can't explain everything just like science can't explain why the tide goes in and out every day. Stats can also be manipulated and cherry-picked to say whatever you want them to say much like the "science" of global warming pushed by social justice warriors to bring in a carbon tax to fund transgender childcare centres.
734890
 

fpcookie

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Agree with all of that apart from the needing time. He's a great decision maker. He has terrible depth for his kicking though, which makes us easier to set up against.

Trading would be a big call, but if it gave us Keath/Bruce/AMT/Martin then I'd probably do it. All bigger needs, and we can easily push Richards back and pick up another depth HBF.
Terrible depth? :think::think: He's shown he can kick 50+ whenever he wants. Think this is somewhat overstated. He's not a Tony Libba or Scott West.

I actually agree with the premise that he's better off being traded if you take that position that he's no good in the backline. Will never happen though and daresay he's an AA back if gets a full season there next year.
 

ringa5

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No one is untradeable .But Caleb is a bulldog legend and deserves more respect.
Whether he should play in the backline is
A fair argument.Whether he should be traded... and when he's out injured..wrong IMO
 

yebiga

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Stating that Caleb can be a liability defensively is not savaging the player. All and sundry know that. He has been very effective in the role but the afl is super competitive beast and coaches have implemented plans to exploit his size defensively. As a result more of those one on one contest have been targeted by our opponents.

Now it does notrequire you to lose many one on one Contests to lose the game as these are devastating. They lift morale and demoralize defenses. There are numerous flow on effects if one player cannot hold their own in a one on one contest and the opposition are targeting that opportunity. All your defensive match ups must adjust and it kind of has to hurt your other structures.

So how Bev uses caleb also needs adjusting. It doesn’t mean he no longer plays in defense but he may well need to play there less. Each opponent will present different challenges which I’m sure Bev is very aware of. For mine, I like him in defense when we have a lead we are protecting as he is so frustrating to the opposition with his retention. But I don’t really like him there when the game is really tight and one of those one on one contests could take the game away from us.
 

fpcookie

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For those pushing the W/L argument....

With libba this year:
6-9 record with a scoring differential of -7.2

Without libba this year:
6-1 record with a scoring differential of +34.1

I'm not saying libba is the reason for this, just that there's many, many factors at play with the teams' record and you can't really pin it on one factor.

More likely, improvement in form across the whole team has simply coincided with these guys' injuries.
 

BRWB

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For those pushing the W/L argument....

With libba this year:
6-9 record with a scoring differential of -7.2

Without libba this year:
6-1 record with a scoring differential of +34.1

I'm not saying libba is the reason for this, just that there's many, many factors at play with the teams' record and you can't really pin it on one factor.

More likely, improvement in form across the whole team has simply coincided with these guys' injuries.
For me it's no coincidence. Libba and Wallis out forced Bev to play fwds fwd and mids mid. Suddenly we have a settled fwd line gelling.

Same goes for Caleb. His floaty kicks lack pace and are an interceptors delight. His lack of height a god send to fwds. His constant delay with the ball a slow on our ball movement which has been lightning with him out.

We have looked far better with Libba, Wallis and Daniel out.
 

LondonBulldog

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For me it's no coincidence. Libba and Wallis out forced Bev to play fwds fwd and mids mid. Suddenly we have a settled fwd line gelling.

Same goes for Caleb. His floaty kicks lack pace and are an interceptors delight. His lack of height a god send to fwds. His constant delay with the ball a slow on our ball movement which has been lightning with him out.

We have looked far better with Libba, Wallis and Daniel out.
Same BRWB. We were are too 1 paced with Libba, Wallis and Daniel all in the side, opposition can burst away too easy. The side has the right balance of pace, grunt, outside run, mids, forwards and backs. Reality is, each year the player make up of teams change, good coaches realise this and don't rest on past performance. Libba and Wallis are backup next year. Not to say they can't make valuable contributions yet they are borderline best 22 like a lot of other players. Daniel I think belongs in the side if fully fit, so not this year, yet as I've said before not in defence.
 

stefoid

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First thing you need to be able to move the ball quickly out of the backline with long kicking is ... someone to kick to. Dont mess up cause and effect. Bev has turned the dial on the whole team.

If caleb was still in the side he would be hitting up longer targets more quickly ... because they would be there.
 

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