Analysis Caleb Daniel - elite half-back or defensive liability?

wian

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I agree with many here. His role down back is done and dusted. He slows us down and is a massive liability there. This reality is evident with the way the current blokes are playing there since his injury..

He has to either re invent himself as a forward pocket, or half forward etc, or trade him for someone that fits our current needs.
 

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fpcookie

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For me it's no coincidence. Libba and Wallis out forced Bev to play fwds fwd and mids mid. Suddenly we have a settled fwd line gelling.

Same goes for Caleb. His floaty kicks lack pace and are an interceptors delight. His lack of height a god send to fwds. His constant delay with the ball a slow on our ball movement which has been lightning with him out.

We have looked far better with Libba, Wallis and Daniel out.
This proves my point exactly. If it's the restructure of the team that's resulted in better performance as you're arguing that's actually nothing to do with Caleb or Libba themselves. The same restructure could have been done with them in the side/other players changed out with the same or better results. Again, this is correlation not causation.

Caleb, floaty kicks ? Really baffling take to me. His kicks <40m are absolute lasers. Sometimes he'll miskick one or try for an impossible pass threading the needle too much and turn it over but it's not due to being floaty.
EDIT: I'll add he does execute lob type kicks sometimes in traffic however this is only usually when there's no direct line to the receiver. These are kicks not many others could even see let alone execute.

Lack of height is an issue, no arguments there. it's the reason for his bad 1v1 loss %. I think this is the only valid criticism raised so far. But this is the exact reason he's deployed in the backline in the first place, because further up the ground when he needs to be a target he becomes much more ineffectual. This is has been proven already. In the backline this deficiency can be *hopefully* covered somewhat by our defensive system/midfield pressure. However, you might be arguing he's better off out of the team full stop - which I think is a valid POV if you think he's no good down back.
 
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Mantis Toboggan

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Caleb, floaty kicks ? Really baffling take to me. His kicks <40m are absolute lasers. Sometimes he'll miskick one or try for an impossible pass threading the needle too much and turn it over but it's not due to being floaty.
Totally agree. He kicks low and flat.

His issue is that he takes massive risks in an area where they are most costly. The fact that Bevo has him taking kick-ins indicates that the tactic is driven by the coaches. They want Daniel kicking short and finding targets. I just think it’s a bad tactic. Huge risk and often not much to gain. With Daniel out we seem to have abandoned it which is a great relief.

Hopefully he comes back in a slightly different role. He’s too good a player to sit in the VFL.
 

BRWB

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This proves my point exactly. If it's the restructure of the team that's resulted in better performance as you're arguing that's actually nothing to do with Caleb or Libba themselves. The same restructure could have been done with them in the side/other players changed out with the same or better results. Again, this is correlation not causation.

Caleb, floaty kicks ? Really baffling take to me. His kicks <40m are absolute lasers. Sometimes he'll miskick one or try for an impossible pass threading the needle too much and turn it over but it's not due to being floaty.
EDIT: I'll add he does execute lob type kicks sometimes in traffic however this is only usually when there's no direct line to the receiver. These are kicks not many others could even see let alone execute.

Lack of height is an issue, no arguments there. it's the reason for his bad 1v1 loss %. I think this is the only valid criticism raised so far. But this is the exact reason he's deployed in the backline in the first place, because further up the ground when he needs to be a target he becomes much more ineffectual. This is has been proven already. In the backline this deficiency can be *hopefully* covered somewhat by our defensive system/midfield pressure. However, you might be arguing he's better off out of the team full stop - which I think is a valid POV if you think he's no good down back.
It's not about if Caleb is in the best 22 players. It's if he is in the best 22. Same for Libba. On ability both are in the top 22.

watched CD a lot and wouldn't describe his kicking as fast. Has a slow kick IMO.
 

dogwatch

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A point that hasn’t been raised much, if at all, is that you will almost NEVER see a blind kick forward from Caleb ... but you will from most other players.
The blind kick under pressure is understandable and probably has about a 30% success rate at best. At worst it results in a turnover and catches our players out if rebounded quickly, resulting in a score against us.

Our high press strategy works a lot of the time because of opponents using the blind kick out of their D50. A player like Caleb is one way to beat the high press when we’re locked in our own back half.

Because of his vision and agility Caleb is usually able to avoid just slamming it onto the boot. He can find a safe and effective disposal which often results in us scoring, a stat that has been mentioned a few times. (Highest at the club IIRC)

We know that occasionally his passes are picked off or he gets run down by an opponent but I suspect that’s infrequent enough that there is still a clear net benefit from his role. I’m also pretty sure it’s a designated role ie he’s instructed to play that way.

A few posts here have prematurely conducted the last rites on his HB role. It’s immaterial whether I agree or not. The reality is that Bevo loves him there and is likely to continue with him in that role for a good while to come.
 
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BRWB

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A point that hasn’t been raised much, if at all, is that you will almost NEVER see a blind kick forward from Caleb ... but you will from most other players.
The blind kick under pressure is understandable and probably has about a 30% success rate at best. At worst it results in a turnover and catches our players out if rebounded quickly, resulting in a score against us.

Our high press strategy works a lot of the time because of opponents using the blind kick out of their D50. A player like Caleb is one way to beat the high press when we’re locked in our own back half.

Because of his vision and agility Caleb is usually able to avoid just slamming it onto the boot. He can find a safe and effective disposal which often results in us scoring, a stat that has been mentioned a few times. (Highest at the club IIRC)

We know that occasionally his passes are picked off or he gets run down by an opponent but I suspect that’s infrequent enough that there is still a clear net benefit from his role. I’m also pretty sure it’s a designated role ie he’s instructed to play that way.

A few posts here have prematurely conducted the last rites on his HB role. It’s immaterial whether I agree or not. The reality is that Bevo loves him there and is likely to continue with him in that role for a good while to come.
Yep Bev loves him there.

Sometimes Bev changes like with Dunks bit it's rare.

Personally would love CD as a high HFF like in 16 his slowish precision kicks are a leading fwds dream.
 

fpcookie

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Totally agree. He kicks low and flat.

His issue is that he takes massive risks in an area where they are most costly. The fact that Bevo has him taking kick-ins indicates that the tactic is driven by the coaches. They want Daniel kicking short and finding targets. I just think it’s a bad tactic. Huge risk and often not much to gain. With Daniel out we seem to have abandoned it which is a great relief.

Hopefully he comes back in a slightly different role. He’s too good a player to sit in the VFL.
We commonly hear Bev talk about how he assesses game theory and strategy, almost applying a systems engineering type analysis to his coaching. He's spoken of concepts around risk analysis, mitigation and risk v reward in the past. He's identified that the big rewards come when the oppo press can be broken. Not just worked through slowly or incrementally which other teams do, but to snap it completely. More so than other coaches IMO he's targeting ways to do that to make it as easy as possible for our forwards.

When you watch games across the league, most (all) teams employ the long kick out wide to the flanks/boundary a vast majority of the time. It's an entirely valid tactic but it's very defensive. Unless you have someone that can consistently take big pack marks, it most often just ends in a stoppage. The press slides back and your forwards aren't really advantaged. By employing Daniel in the kick out, you have one of the best kicks in the league and one of the few players who are capable of piercing a setup zone/press by foot. If this kick finds it's way to a Suckling/Crozier/JJ type sitting 40m from goal you then have a prime opportunity to completely break the opponents press with the next disposal. The rewards with this are huge and opens up avenues to goal that we wouldn't otherwise have.

Risk appetite is a personal thing. It seems Bev is completely happy with it with the current results. Yep, it will result in turnovers sometimes and for me, it's probably 50/50 in terms of risk/reward on current results. However, I think if Caleb could maybe pick his spots just a little better and forego the ones where he attempts the impossible, say reduce his TO rate by 50%, it becomes a pretty powerful tactic to employ.
 

dogwatch

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We commonly hear Bev talk about how he assesses game theory and strategy, almost applying a systems engineering type analysis to his coaching. He's spoken of concepts around risk analysis, mitigation and risk v reward in the past. He's identified that the big rewards come when the oppo press can be broken. Not just worked through slowly or incrementally which other teams do, but to snap it completely. More so than other coaches IMO he's targeting ways to do that to make it as easy as possible for our forwards.

When you watch games across the league, most (all) teams employ the long kick out wide to the flanks/boundary a vast majority of the time. It's an entirely valid tactic but it's very defensive. Unless you have someone that can consistently take big pack marks, it most often just ends in a stoppage. The press slides back and your forwards aren't really advantaged. By employing Daniel in the kick out, you have one of the best kicks in the league and one of the few players who are capable of piercing a setup zone/press by foot. If this kick finds it's way to a Suckling/Crozier/JJ type sitting 40m from goal you then have a prime opportunity to completely break the opponents press with the next disposal. The rewards with this are huge and opens up avenues to goal that we wouldn't otherwise have.

Risk appetite is a personal thing. It seems Bev is completely happy with it with the current results. Yep, it will result in turnovers sometimes and for me, it's probably 50/50 in terms of risk/reward on current results. However, I think if Caleb could maybe pick his spots just a little better and forego the ones where he attempts the impossible, say reduce his TO rate by 50%, it becomes a pretty powerful tactic to employ.
Good post. I said something similar earlier in the season: he just needs to drop his horror turnovers from 1-2 per match to 1-2 per month.
 

JTCWBFC

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I like the look of our defence without him - we seem more stable, long & direct in our attacking.

With that said, I don't think we've seen the last of him down there.

Bevo said in his press conference before the Crows game AND on 360 with Woody how Caleb was on track to be AA (playing down back).

He obviously rates his work very highly & I would expect we'll see him resume his backline position in 2020.
 

stefoid

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watched CD a lot and wouldn't describe his kicking as fast. Has a slow kick IMO.
you mean he takes a lot of time to make a decision, or he gives the ball too much air time?

I mean, there is a time low flat kicks and a time and place for floaty kicks. Whatever is best for the receiver.
 

stefoid

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I like the look of our defence without him - we seem more stable, long & direct in our attacking.
have you noticed that whenever the moon is about to come out, the sun goes away? If we didnt have a moon, the sun would stay up 24 hours a day. :p
 

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BRWB

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you mean he takes a lot of time to make a decision, or he gives the ball too much air time?

I mean, there is a time low flat kicks and a time and place for floaty kicks. Whatever is best for the receiver.
Too much air time. They aren't high and floaty as such just slow.
 

JTCWBFC

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Need to find a way to get him further up the ground delivering to the likes of Naughton, Dale & Lloyd on the lead next year.
 

fpcookie

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We missed his ball use desperately on the weekend.

Without him in the side, the long kick down the line out of defence is pretty much the only option for us (Suckling excused). A large majority of the time, this results in a stoppage which is okay if you're winning contested ball but when our midfield is getting slaughtered it's just going to result in repeat entries for the opposition. The defence did well in repelling the GWS attacks for a while, but eventually weight of numbers won out.

Not only that, but in a finals game the intensity is ratcheted up to the extreme. There were so many blind kicks out of d50 against GWS, just handing them the ball back. With so many players back there that are either slow of mind or body (or both) or lacking creativity it's no wonder. We needed Daniel there with his poise, his excellent decision making and ability to pierce a zone to find a target. At least by giving a team mate a chance to actually mark a ball (even off a short kick), it allows our back line time to setup again for any repeat entries that may come. Without his ability to help get us out of tough spots by foot, we simply got locked down in our own half for extended periods of time.
 

Yojimbo

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Top Five Ranked Players (23 x Rounds a clinical dissection with subtle methodology hints)

Macrae: 19 Times for 10 x Wins and 9 x Losses.
Bontempelli: 16 Times for 10 x Wins and 6 x Losses.
Dunkley: 15 Times for 9 x Wins and 6 x Losses.
Hunter: 13 Times for 8 x Wins and 5 x Losses.
Daniel: 9 Times for 2 x Wins and 7 x Losses.

Liberatore: 6 Times for 2 x Wins and 4 x Losses.
Suckling: 5 Times for 2 x Wins and 3 x Losses.
English: 4 Times for 1 x Win and 3 x Losses.
Crozier: 4 Times for 1 x Win and 3 x Losses.
B.Smith: 4 Times for 2 x Wins and 2 x Losses.

Naughton: 3 Times for 3 x Wins.
McLean: 3 Times for 1 x Win and 2 x Losses.
Wallis: 2 Times for 1 x Win and 1 x Loss.
Johannisen: 2 Times for 1 x Win and 1 x Loss.
Lloyd: 2 Times for 1 x Win and 1 x Loss.

Trengove: 2 Times for 1 x Win and 1 x Loss.
Lipinski: 2 Times for 2 x Wins.
R.Smith: 1 Time for 1 x Win.
Duryea: 1 Time for 1 x Win.
Wood: 1 Time for 1 x Loss.
Hayes: 1 Time for 1 x Win.

So what does this have to do with Caleb Daniel ? Not much really just shows that he is not in the famed
"Bubble Of Excellence" and when he does find himself in our top ranked players it usually coincides
with a Loss and not a Win. Most teams in any sport face the conundrum of having players who by
playing well increase their chances of winning games, but sometimes when they are absent you have
to find another avenue or adjust your overall methodology. Richmond's use of Dustin Martin in their
final with Brisbane was a good case in point, but could they do that against a different opponent with
a more potent midfield ? Should we have isolated Bontempelli at full forward in the Orange is the new
black Elimination Final instead of trying him in the Ruck, maybe, but our supply was very poor. Should
we have Rucked Trengove and played English as a forward for large parts of the year, yes. I am just
frustrated because I saw the warning signs, but such is life.
 

Charlie Bucket

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We missed his ball use desperately on the weekend.

Without him in the side, the long kick down the line out of defence is pretty much the only option for us (Suckling excused). A large majority of the time, this results in a stoppage which is okay if you're winning contested ball but when our midfield is getting slaughtered it's just going to result in repeat entries for the opposition. The defence did well in repelling the GWS attacks for a while, but eventually weight of numbers won out.

Not only that, but in a finals game the intensity is ratcheted up to the extreme. There were so many blind kicks out of d50 against GWS, just handing them the ball back. With so many players back there that are either slow of mind or body (or both) or lacking creativity it's no wonder. We needed Daniel there with his poise, his excellent decision making and ability to pierce a zone to find a target. At least by giving a team mate a chance to actually mark a ball (even off a short kick), it allows our back line time to setup again for any repeat entries that may come. Without his ability to help get us out of tough spots by foot, we simply got locked down in our own half for extended periods of time.
It’s refreshing reading informed posts, FP Cookie.
You definitely aren’t a football Nuffy.
 

Unorth

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Yeah what we missed on the weekend is a 5 foot 2 bloke.

He would have really been able to change the fact the Giants “bitched” us with size and intensity 🤦🏼‍♂️
Exactly nobody is arguing that Caleb would have been out there laying anyone out.

They're correctly arguing that we had too many rushed kicks out of defense against the Giants due to both real and perceived pressure (Think the Richards and Cordy fwd 50 turnovers when they had more time than they thought), and that Caleb, our 2nd most composed player with ball in hand who's proven effective at weaving through traffic, would have helped us get something going. Of course he alone wouldn't have gotten us the win but he would have helped fix what was one of our major issues in that game.
 

Mattdougie

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Lol it all had to do with the midfield getting absolutely smashed and they pushed up on us and closed all the exits. Even when we hit targets we had no second option.

And how good would Caleb’s 30 mt kicks down the line have been coz no one had any targets to kick to so Why would Wee man have been different?

We could have had Lindsey Gilbee down there it wouldn’t have helped.

And which 6 foot 2 bloke would have Caleb lined up on ????

It’s hilarious the argument some will make just not to back down to certain people. I honestly can’t believe people still think Caleb is a backline answer
 

Mattdougie

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Exactly nobody is arguing that Caleb would have been out there laying anyone out.

They're correctly arguing that we had too many rushed kicks out of defense against the Giants due to both real and perceived pressure (Think the Richards and Cordy fwd 50 turnovers when they had more time than they thought), and that Caleb, our 2nd most composed player with ball in hand who's proven effective at weaving through traffic, would have helped us get something going. Of course he alone wouldn't have gotten us the win but he would have helped fix what was one of our major issues in that game.
Sorry that’s wrong because even if he had the footy we had no options forward of the ball to kick it too. We folded back so deep to try and stop them and close it down we had no out options.

Didn’t matter who had the footy you can’t hit a target that isn’t there
 

dogwatch

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Lol it all had to do with the midfield getting absolutely smashed and they pushed up on us and closed all the exits. Even when we hit targets we had no second option.

And how good would Caleb’s 30 mt kicks down the line have been coz no one had any targets to kick to so Why would Wee man have been different?

We could have had Lindsey Gilbee down there it wouldn’t have helped.

And which 6 foot 2 bloke would have Caleb lined up on ????

It’s hilarious the argument some will make just not to back down to certain people. I honestly can’t believe people still think Caleb is a backline answer
Bevo seems to think he's a backline answer. Hasn't given any indication that he's thinking of shifting him.

But then what would he know?
 

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