Traded Caleb Marchbank [traded to Carlton w/ Pickett, 2017 Rd 2 pk for Picks 45, 58 and Geelong's 2017 1st]

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No I think it takes the edge of his value ... but he still gets traded. GWS are becoming astute in Oct.. and I think they will learn from the Non Freo deal last year.I think its all about managing the downside.

The Freo non-deal worked.

GWS is essentially about our 2012 class. If they stay solid, everyone else is irrelevant.

Note how none of the flogs are talking about Cameron, Cogs, Shiel etc - it's all about minor, marginal players like Marchbank, Tomlinson, etc.
 
Yeah right.
Exactly.

Add to that the Ebert, Gibson, Crameri, Gunstan, Ryder and a plethora of other deals. The idea that clubs don't try and win trades and always offer a fair price is ridiculous. Hell, GWS would presumably argue that with respect to Freo and McCarthy last year, they obviously didn't like the price they offered.

Virtually all trades recently are "fair" relative to each players/Clubs circumstances. The exception being the Brisbane Go Home 5 who left Brisbane extraordinarily vulnerable.

The only people who don't think trades are "fair" are nutbag supporters of Clubs involved who overrate/underrate players.

The industry is pretty small, insular and pretty professional with little intent/ability to rip Clubs off these days.

All those deals you mentioned above were "fair". The fact that they all went through and are pretty similar tells you that.

Rabid supporters need to get it through their head that when a player wants to leave the "fair" price is nearly always not the optimal price.
 

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The Freo non-deal worked.

GWS is essentially about our 2012 class. If they stay solid, everyone else is irrelevant.

Note how none of the flogs are talking about Cameron, Cogs, Shiel etc - it's all about minor, marginal players like Marchbank, Tomlinson, etc.

Work or not worked... they will learn from it.. They will see how being hard in a deal can have benefits and negatives , how future picks in deals can fluctuate etc. Im certain all the other clubs have learned that its a dangerous campaign to talk to a contracted player.
 
If I was GWS I would take this. They don't need any more picks this year and next years draft looks likely to be a good one. GWS will be trying to get at least 2 first round draft picks for as long as they can.

Steele looks like he belongs in the GWS midfield, and Marchbank is a decent defender.

If we can, I'd go 'pass' on that trade, and offer those players their money.
 
Steele looks like he belongs in the GWS midfield, and Marchbank is a decent defender.

If we can, I'd go 'pass' on that trade, and offer those players their money.

I'd pass on it as well, but if the players want to leave I would except it. The best thing for GWS in the next few years is to keep all required players. This will stop clubs raiding your list in the future and for players to think twice before deciding to leave. At the moment it's too easy for your players to say I want to go home, because 3-4 players did the year before.
 
How has Jake Barrett's progress been?
Also maybe not the right thread but what is Jarrod Pickett's List/Form/Contract situation?

Barrett reguarly gets 30+ in the NEAFL but the comp is rubbish, out of contract and if he wants to go elsewhere the club would get him there.
Pickett has been injured for most of the year with a foot injury and is contracted for next year.
 
Virtually all trades recently are "fair" relative to each players/Clubs circumstances. The exception being the Brisbane Go Home 5 who left Brisbane extraordinarily vulnerable.

The only people who don't think trades are "fair" are nutbag supporters of Clubs involved who overrate/underrate players.

The industry is pretty small, insular and pretty professional with little intent/ability to rip Clubs off these days.

All those deals you mentioned above were "fair". The fact that they all went through and are pretty similar tells you that.

Rabid supporters need to get it through their head that when a player wants to leave the "fair" price is nearly always not the optimal price.
If you're using the definition of fair that its market value allowing for clubs to push others around, of course. If you mean fair in the sense of what a non-biased expert would say, no it doesn't. The prices in a market are impacted by distortions in that market - so if there is a consistent bias such as a monopoly, then the prices may be consistent but not fair.

I believe most (ok, this is bigfooty. many) on big footy would agree that Brisbane's go home 5 plus the trades I mentioned above were not fair trades. In all cases a club or clubs held the other to ransom - give him to us cheap or he leaves for nothing. And every time the clubs have caved because the impact of the player leaving for nothing is too high. Just because that consistently happens doesn't mean the price is fair, it means that there is a systemic problem with the market. You have already conceded this happens, with the Brisbane 5. What made that unique that you think it happened there, but nowhere else?

Do you really believe Ebert going to Port for #28 was fair?
Do you really believe Gunston going to Hawthorn for #24 plus steak knives was fair?
How about Ryder for #17 and #37 when Essendon had another offer from GWS for more?
Was Gibson to Hawthorn for #25 and steak knives fair?
Was Crameri to Bulldogs for #26 fair?

You said "The industry is pretty small, insular and pretty professional with little intent/ability to rip Clubs off these days". Aren't you contradicting yourself there? A professional would try and get the best deal for their club. You're saying they're all chummy and just mutually agree. That contradicts itself, and also seems to ignore how many deals take a long time to be resolved.

With the Brisbane 5 and the trades above, Port (x3), Hawthorn (x2), Collingwood, WCE, St Kilda, Bulldogs and Carlton all performed these unfair trades just from the ones I can think of off the top of my head (and ignoring older ones like Thompson to Adelaide). That is over a third of AFL clubs. So when over a third of the competition is doing it, that isn't a simple one off. Its not just random. Clubs do get smashed at the trade table. Not all trades are fair.

On your last sentence, the fact the price isn't optimal isn't the point. Its that its sometimes well below what a reasonable valuation would be.
 
Do you really believe Ebert going to Port for #28 was fair?
Do you really believe Gunston going to Hawthorn for #24 plus steak knives was fair?
How about Ryder for #17 and #37 when Essendon had another offer from GWS for more?
Was Gibson to Hawthorn for #25 and steak knives fair?
Was Crameri to Bulldogs for #26 fair?

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

If that is not the definition of the market consistently telling you what is about fair value, then i don't know what is.

If a player elects to leave your Club, you are most likely to get a fair industry price and not an optimal price. It really is irrelevant how fans rate them, other than to argue amongst themselves.
 

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Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

If that is not the definition of the market consistently telling you what is about fair value, then i don't know what is.

If a player elects to leave your Club, you are most likely to get a fair industry price and not an optimal price. It really is irrelevant how fans rate them, other than to argue amongst themselves.
There's no such thing as a "fair industry price" or "market value" in the AFL.

Because players can veto trades to teams they don't want to go to there's rarely an open market for a player's services and as such no way to evaluate what a player would be worth. Instead it's a negotiated settlement between two parties forced to deal.

Sometimes a trade gets close to what would be accepted as a player's value and sometimes it doesn't, but there's no magic element that means because a trade has occurred it's fair value.
 
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

If that is not the definition of the market consistently telling you what is about fair value, then i don't know what is.

If a player elects to leave your Club, you are most likely to get a fair industry price and not an optimal price. It really is irrelevant how fans rate them, other than to argue amongst themselves.
Well then, just be clear - your definition of "fair" isn't the definition that everyone else uses. A market price isn't necessarily fair - any market which has systemic issues such as monopolies, skewed laws, illiquid assets, parties with significant power will still create a market price. But nobody would define them as fair.

So please, when we're having discussions on fair prices don't bring in your definition, as you'll just confuse everyone and start a pointless debate.

Although I must admit it is a neat argument to win the original discussion that clubs don't try and do over other clubs and get unfair wins. Since, if by definition every agreed trade is fair then that can't happen unless a club pulls a Port/Stevens or GWS/McCarthy.
 
Well then, just be clear - your definition of "fair" isn't the definition that everyone else uses. A market price isn't necessarily fair - any market which has systemic issues such as monopolies, skewed laws, illiquid assets, parties with significant power will still create a market price. But nobody would define them as fair.

So please, when we're having discussions on fair prices don't bring in your definition, as you'll just confuse everyone and start a pointless debate.

Although I must admit it is a neat argument to win the original discussion that clubs don't try and do over other clubs and get unfair wins. Since, if by definition every agreed trade is fair then that can't happen unless a club pulls a Port/Stevens or GWS/McCarthy.

Well, if fans want to continue to argue that the price they want is fairer than the price they continually get, then i guess i can't add any more.

If a player decides to leave a Club there is no point in trying to demand an optimal price in this current system where the player selects his new Club and a fair deal is reached that will fall against the Club(and fans) that couldn't retain the player.

Again, fair is not optimal...but it is reality.
 
When teams enter into trade discussions on roughly equal footing then it is more likely that the result of the exchange between the teams will subsequently be roughly equal also. But as is often the case, one team will often enter into trade discussions in a position of relative strength as compared to their proposed trade partner (due to many possible factors including; threat of entering the draft, player having chosen preferred destination, controversy [drug ban, behaviour concerns etc.], injury history, contract ending/desire to return home). You can't eliminate all of such inequities, but it is the job of those that administer the game to ensure that they limit them as much as possible by way of the mechanics of the player movement system and the rules that govern it. There are plenty of things that can be done still on this front.
* Set contract terms for all drafted players (set amount of years and possibly money based on where drafted).
* Maximum raises based off % of previous contract
* Current team able to offer higher % increases when negotiating a new contract
* All players eligible for FA after rookie contract, meaning threat of PSD and National Draft is removed

With the AFLPA looking to lock in a percentage of revenue at the next CBA negotiation, perhaps the AFL and clubs can push for changes that address some of the inadequacies that exist in the player movement system a trade off.
 
Do you really believe Ebert going to Port for #28 was fair?
Do you really believe Gunston going to Hawthorn for #24 plus steak knives was fair?
How about Ryder for #17 and #37 when Essendon had another offer from GWS for more?
Was Gibson to Hawthorn for #25 and steak knives fair?
Was Crameri to Bulldogs for #26 fair?
Some of these examples are pretty ridiculous. They may seem quite lop-sided in hindsight, but at the time were viewed quite differently.

Ebert was just an average footballer at WCE. He was dropped in his last season there from memory. He couldn't hit the side of barn door by foot. He has been a much better footballer at Port than he ever displayed at WCE. At the time the trade was made, it wasn't a horrendous value.
Gunston was a very unproven footballer at the time, a talent, but he hadn't done a lot. Very few would have predicted he would become the player he has. I dare say even Hawthorn would not have banked on the production they have gotten. bad in hindsight, but not horrendous at the time.
Ryder and Crameri were hugely affected by obvious factors. Essendon were in a very weak bargaining position and did well to return whatever they could.
Gibson was a fringe footballer at North. He was in and out of the side at times, and was even trialled as a tagger in the middle during his final season there. Some were questioning, at the time, whether Hawthorn overpaid. Very few people would have predicted Gibson to become the footballer he has. Not a bad trade at the time.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but many of the deals you mentioned weren't that bad at the time they happened
 
Some of these examples are pretty ridiculous. They may seem quite lop-sided in hindsight, but at the time were viewed quite differently.

Ebert was just an average footballer at WCE. He was dropped in his last season there from memory. He couldn't hit the side of barn door by foot. He has been a much better footballer at Port than he ever displayed at WCE. At the time the trade was made, it wasn't a horrendous value.
Gunston was a very unproven footballer at the time, a talent, but he hadn't done a lot. Very few would have predicted he would become the player he has. I dare say even Hawthorn would not have banked on the production they have gotten. bad in hindsight, but not horrendous at the time.
Ryder and Crameri were hugely affected by obvious factors. Essendon were in a very weak bargaining position and did well to return whatever they could.
Gibson was a fringe footballer at North. He was in and out of the side at times, and was even trialled as a tagger in the middle during his final season there. Some were questioning, at the time, whether Hawthorn overpaid. Very few people would have predicted Gibson to become the footballer he has. Not a bad trade at the time.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but many of the deals you mentioned weren't that bad at the time they happened
Sorry, but that isn't hindsight. Plenty called that Ebert was way unders. Gunston in his second year had just won the best young player award, and was performing really well for a second year player. The fact Ryder and Crameri were effected by other factors doesn't change the fact we got way unders. Gibson wasn't "in and out" of the side - he played 22 games in his 4th season after 20 the year before. In his last year he averaged only 3 less disposals than he has this year (although many less marks). He wasn't hyped by the media, but those paying attention knew what Hawthorn had done. Which is why North fans were screaming bloody murder.

Hindsight wasn't necessary for any of those. That players like Gibson/Gunston became quite as good as they have is hindsight, but they were highly rated players at the time. Hence why their clubs wanted to keep them.
 
Jeebus, may as well just get rid of the draft completely.
What if all first rd picks were locked into 4 year deals initially? Would it be so bad?
What if the side that drafted them could then offer 5% more than any other side trying to poach them? Still so bad?
 

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