Call the top of the bull market

ash_1050

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A bit of fun as it appears that this eight year bull run of stocks will come to an end in the next year or two.

My uneducated guess is 7750ish is about the top for the NASDAQ (currently 7500).

I don't think the Dow Jones will go above 27000 this year (currently 26199)

My final uneducated guess is the ASX won't get above 6150 this year at all before undergoing a correction (currently 6022).

Also expecting Melbourne and Sydney property prices to drop about 5% this year, again pulling figures out of my arse.
 
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sabre_ac

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A bit of fun as it appears that this eight year bull run of stocks will come to an end in the next year or two.

My uneducated guess is 7750ish is about the top for the NASDAQ (currently 7500).

I don't think the Dow Jones will go above 27000 this year (currently 26199)

My final uneducated guess is the ASX won't get above 6150 this year at all before undergoing a correction (currently 6022).

Also expecting Melbourne and Sydney property prices to drop about 5% this year, again pulling figures out of my arse.
Late last year I would have said 2018 would be the market top, but Trumps tax cuts are resulting in fairly substantial cash benefits which could pump more air in the tires for a little longer.

As someone who never had any money to invest prior to the start of this bull market, I've never had a big buying opportunity. It does help that I'm fairly conservative and my investing horizon is long term.
 

TheLoris

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Up by the stairs, down by the elevator. Buckle up. Down we go.
 

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Duritz

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#12
A bit of fun as it appears that this eight year bull run of stocks will come to an end in the next year or two.

My uneducated guess is 7750ish is about the top for the NASDAQ (currently 7500).

I don't think the Dow Jones will go above 27000 this year (currently 26199)

My final uneducated guess is the ASX won't get above 6150 this year at all before undergoing a correction (currently 6022).

Also expecting Melbourne and Sydney property prices to drop about 5% this year, again pulling figures out of my arse.
Spot on.

Now who's going to win the last at Sandown tomorrow?
 

evo

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#14
We've just seen the top. Trump rally is over.

It's all down hill from here. Time to buy gold/ silver and/or cryptos.
 

Lums23

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#16
Im cashed up at the moment .
Desperately waiting to hear those 3 great words.
'Housing market crisis '
I'm about 18 months away from starting to look more seriously at buying and am praying for this between now and then
 

ash_1050

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Im cashed up at the moment .
Desperately waiting to hear those 3 great words.
'Housing market crisis '
+1, got a deposit sitting there, will be looking at property at the end of the year.
 

Scotland

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#18
I first stared looking at real estate in 2007. Been hearing about people who are cashed up and waiting for a crash since then. Presumably they've been around longer than that.

Meanwhile the house I bought in 2009 went up about 30-40% in value before falling about 5-10%. Right now it's about 25% above the purchase price, but as I'm not looking to sell any time soon I don't really care. More importantly interest rates have been pretty low over the period I've owned it so I've been able to build some equity while interest repayments have been low. It's nothing fancy but I own my own place (in the traditional 'I have a mortgage' sense) and the interest repayments are lower than what the equivalent rent would be, even after rents have come down. The amount I pay in interest would get me SFA in the Perth rental market.

If the housing market didn't crash in 2008 and hasn't crashed over the following decade, why will it crash in 2018 or 2019? I've seen people lose money buying houses (residence and investment) and I've seen people make investments for returns that aren't worth the effort, but I'll be surprised to see any cap city market in Australia crash. Sydney maybe, but a $1m house dropping to $750k still isn't a good deal when the equivalent in other cities is $500k.
 

Kram

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#19
Been hanging back from putting much of my money in because the share market has been running hot for ages. When the dust settles should be some good buying opportunities.
 

Scotland

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I've got my eye on a couple of individual shares, not really phased what the market overall is doing as they're 12-24month propositions.
 

YippeeYiYeo

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A bit of fun as it appears that this eight year bull run of stocks will come to an end in the next year or two.

My uneducated guess is 7750ish is about the top for the NASDAQ (currently 7500).

I don't think the Dow Jones will go above 27000 this year (currently 26199)

My final uneducated guess is the ASX won't get above 6150 this year at all before undergoing a correction (currently 6022).

Also expecting Melbourne and Sydney property prices to drop about 5% this year, again pulling figures out of my arse.
Great call.

I was watching a Peter Schiff YouTube vid about 3 months ago and he basically went on to say that Trump was making the same mistakes that were made back in 2007, and that the next stock market crash would be soon and just as big as the GFC. That was enough for me to switch up my superannuation plan from a risky portfolio to one much safer.

Glad I got the change made when I did. I remember watching YouTube vids of Peter Schiff in 2008 accurately predicting the GFC and I became a fan. For a while I pretty much forgot about him until I stumbled upon him as a guest on Joe Rogans podcast. He didn’t come across that well tbh as he endorsed fracking and basically anything he was involved in from a business standpoint. But it got me on to his YouTube channel which I subscribed to and you can tell how switched on he is with the US economy.
 

dmc333

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#22
Great call.

I was watching a Peter Schiff YouTube vid about 3 months ago and he basically went on to say that Trump was making the same mistakes that were made back in 2007, and that the next stock market crash would be soon and just as big as the GFC. That was enough for me to switch up my superannuation plan from a risky portfolio to one much safer.

Glad I got the change made when I did. I remember watching YouTube vids of Peter Schiff in 2008 accurately predicting the GFC and I became a fan. For a while I pretty much forgot about him until I stumbled upon him as a guest on Joe Rogans podcast. He didn’t come across that well tbh as he endorsed fracking and basically anything he was involved in from a business standpoint. But it got me on to his YouTube channel which I subscribed to and you can tell how switched on he is with the US economy.
He's a good entertainer, but you need to remember with guys like Schiff they've been predicting market crashes and gold to the moon every consecutive year for the past 20.
 

ash_1050

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Thread starter #23
Bump, looks like we're in for some rough weather finance wise.

My guess was 7750ish is about the top for the NASDAQ (peaked 8914)

My guess was Dow Jones will not go above 27000 this year (peaked 26828)

My final guess was the ASX wouldn't get above 6150 this year at all before undergoing a correction (peaked 6301)
 

Kram

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#24
Another rough day for the ASX, 5600 is about the level it needs to hold.
 
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