Opinion Cam Guthrie - out of form? (and tangential Supercoach as guide to form discussion)

[Partridge]

Sense of humour... anyone??

Absolutely no one.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Guthrie being out of form is simply a fallacy.

Nope. He's going very ordinary.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Guthrie is not playing at his best but he is nowhere near being dropped.

1- there is no suitable replacement for him in the seconds.
2 - even his below par games are better than our fringe players
3 - he gives side flexibility

No doubt he needs to find form if we are going anywhere this year. But the only way he finds that form is in the firsts. Same as Motlop a month ago (who was playing much worse).

Suitable replacements are Caddy and or Selwood. Menegola has already come straight in and had more impact. He gives us a decent option of small defender which is at least something but is not flexibility.

 

[The Casey Cat]

I asked a simple question and instead received a long-winded rant.

You think he's playing 'poorly,' you're wrong.

Whilst I agree I think his best position is playing as a defender, the notion that he's out of form or playing poorly is a fallacy.

And you tried to say he played half way decently against Freo. Nothing could be more wrong than that. If you couldn't see he was horrible when he was anywhere near it and wandering around like a goose with its head chopped off when he didn't have it you're a waste of time even discussing it with. Go watch the replay.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Like I said in the "Is Harry Our Most Important Player" thread, I reckon you can put your house on Harry being "managed" this week. Surprised no one else has really noticed how much he is limping around lately.

Yep, I agree with this. He definitely didn't look right last week.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Absolutely no one.

Except when people want to have one. Probably not the best path PB went down with Guth far as the 'girly' comment but if that's his opinion he's entitled to it. I bet I could find far worse things said by those having a sook in the non Geelong thread.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Suitable replacements are Caddy and or Selwood. Menegola has already come straight in and had more impact. He gives us a decent option of small defender. Bugger all else.

He does not deserve and will not be dropped. If Mots didn't get dropped Guthrie sure isn't because his dip in form is nowhere near that of Steven's.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

And you tried to say he played half way decently against Freo. Nothing could be more wrong than that. If you couldn't see he was horrible when he was anywhere near it and wandering around like a goose with its head chopped off when he didn't have it you're a waste of time even discussing it with. Go watch the replay.

Wow!

I'm speechless.

 

[poeyonline]

Its very easy to dismiss supercoach scoring as irrelevant or silly when discussing a players performance, however the use of champion data statistics to produce an overall "score" (ie in the official afl player ranking system) can provide insight into a players influence in a game. Its just another tool to be used alongside analysing individual statistics such as possession counts, metres gained etc. Watching the game live and focusing on one player all game is probably the best way to assess a players performance, but this isnt how most people watch footy.

 

[PatrickBateman]

Wow!

I'm speechless.

As per usual...

He's right, you're demanding explanations, yet not able to discuss the topic - short of posts like the above, or "he won't be dropped, I know that" is about the limit of your ability here. Head in sand supporter.

I gave you clear reasons why I think Guthrie is failing as a mid, yet you can't respond to any of the questions asked of you, nor address my points.

 

[PatrickBateman]

Its very easy to dismiss supercoach scoring as irrelevant or silly when discussing a players performance, however the use of champion data statistics to produce an overall "score" (ie in the official afl player ranking system) can provide insight into a players influence in a game. Its just another tool to be used alongside analysing individual statistics such as possession counts, metres gained etc. Watching the game live and focusing on one player all game is probably the best way to assess a players performance, but this isnt how most people watch footy.

If it doesn't help Guthrie's cause, it's bad, a waste of time, incorrect, etc. If it does, the faithful on here will all agree with you.

Just so you know.

 

[CatFan79]

Its very easy to dismiss supercoach scoring as irrelevant or silly when discussing a players performance, however the use of champion data statistics to produce an overall "score" (ie in the official afl player ranking system) can provide insight into a players influence in a game. Its just another tool to be used alongside analysing individual statistics such as possession counts, metres gained etc. Watching the game live and focusing on one player all game is probably the best way to assess a players performance, but this isnt how most people watch footy.

Yes, but you have to understand some of these clowns like Nakia only count kicks and handballs and probably wouldn't even have mental capacity to understand anything beyond that.

 

[PatrickBateman]

FWIW I thought it was pissweak. You are a better poster than that. That's the reaction you are getting.

Well, you'd know that I don't come on here for acceptance. In other words, I really couldn't care less. Any player who puts more than a reasonable amount of time into his looks but doesn't perform gets ridiculed. It's always been this way, the AFL media join in all the time.

Most people know that Guthrie is out of form and playing poorly (including Chris Scott - singled Guthrie out on AFL360), Dunstal had Guthrie in the worst 3 on the ground on the weekend, in a win! It's only the blind faithful on here who take it personally that can't see the wood for the trees.

Amusing.

 

[vinum coupe]

Yes, but you have to understand some of these clowns like Nakia only count kicks and handballs and probably wouldn't even have mental capacity to understand anything beyond that.

You understand that SuperCoach scores are scaled correct?

What is there? 3300 points allocated per match?

You should go to the effort of looking up each game and seeing where Guthrie has rated in geelongs best for each game.
I.e. Did he get the 5th most points for us. Not "he only got 88"

If you value the points that much you should go do it.


Because you can play the exact same game two weeks in a row and the points will be different.

 

[poeyonline]

Well i guess in Guthries case i'd make a comparison of 2015 and 2016 for a number of games to assess output and that would include a SC score.
As one example only, the last six games of 2015 result in an average SC score of 123 (avg 28 possessions, 8 tackles, 1.2 goal per game)
The last six games of 2016 have resulted in an average SC score of 66 (avg 20 possessions, 4 tackles, 0.2 goals per game).

Anyway, I don't think people should be made to feel stupid by including SC scores (or any other champion data statistical summary) in their analysis of a players performance, and i have noticed a a bit of ignorant contempt for it in general on this board.

 

[poeyonline]

You understand that SuperCoach scores are scaled correct?

What is there? 3300 points allocated per match?

You should go to the effort of looking up each game and seeing where Guthrie has rated in geelongs best for each game.
I.e. Did he get the 5th most points for us. Not "he only got 88"

If you value the points that much you should go do it.


Because you can play the exact same game two weeks in a row and the points will be different.

It is just another analytical tool to be used alongside data like best players. If Guthrie was our fifth best but we got defeated by 100 points he probably had less influence on the game overall than if we had won and his SC score would reflect this. Scaling actually helps in this case as the relative impact of every player on the ground is considered in the score.

In this case 'best players data' + SC score is more elucidating than either data alone.

 

[PatrickBateman]

You understand that SuperCoach scores are scaled correct?

What is there? 3300 points allocated per match?

You should go to the effort of looking up each game and seeing where Guthrie has rated in geelongs best for each game.
I.e. Did he get the 5th most points for us. Not "he only got 88"

If you value the points that much you should go do it.


Because you can play the exact same game two weeks in a row and the points will be different.

Guthrie's last 6 games:

Round 13 - Ranked 15th amongst the Geelong list
Round 14 - 11th
Round 16 - 18th
Round 17 - 16th
Round 18 - 8th
Round 19 - 15th

For a midfielder (they obviously score the most) this is nothing short of pathetic. Just another supporting indicator that the guy is horribly out of form. Thanks for bringing up the suggestion. Anything to offer here Nakia ? Still waiting for something from you that suggests he's NOT out of form. Anything?

No surprise that Dangerfield is number 1 in all but 1 of those games from memory. No correlation to scores and performance? Nah...

 

[CatFan79]

You understand that SuperCoach scores are scaled correct?

What is there? 3300 points allocated per match?

You should go to the effort of looking up each game and seeing where Guthrie has rated in geelongs best for each game.
I.e. Did he get the 5th most points for us. Not "he only got 88"

If you value the points that much you should go do it.


Because you can play the exact same game two weeks in a row and the points will be different.

Yes the points will be different because the influence of others in that game as a comparison will be different.

If I'm not mistaken the ranking score is based on a players influence on the outcome of the game. That's why if you kick the winning goal in a close game it's worth a lot more than if you kick the first goal in the game.

It makes sense the same amount of points are allocated per game given weather conditions effecting efficiency etc..

The few good games Guthrie played well he scored very well.. I think anyone looking this up will agree.

Given midfielders play mostly on the ball and are involved in more of the play it makes sense they would score higher than other positions because generally they have the biggest influence on the outcome of a game.

But like I said before, it's the best way to rate players statistically but I don't worship these stats.

 

[vinum coupe]

Guthrie's last 6 games:

Round 13 - Ranked 15th amongst the Geelong list
Round 14 - 11th
Round 16 - 18th
Round 17 - 16th
Round 18 - 8th
Round 19 - 15th

For a midfielder (they obviously score the most) this is nothing short of pathetic. Just another supporting indicator that the guy is horribly out of form. Thanks for bringing up the suggestion. Anything to offer here Nakia ?

No surprise that Dangerfield is number 1 in all but 1 of those games from memory. No correlation to scores and performance? Nah...

See, now I find that relevant.

I've thought he's been down in form. But I wouldn't have thought he'd been that low in influence on the game.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Well, you'd know that I don't come on here for acceptance. In other words, I really couldn't care less. Any player who puts more than a reasonable amount of time into his looks but doesn't perform gets ridiculed. It's always been this way, the AFL media join in all the time.

Most people know that Guthrie is out of form and playing poorly (including Chris Scott - singled Guthrie out on AFL360), Dunstal had Guthrie in the worst 3 on the ground on the weekend, in a win! It's only the blind faithful on here who take it personally that can't see the wood for the trees.

Amusing.

He's been poor since that blinder he played in Adelaide.
Blicavs, Duncan, Motlop are in the same boat although Motlop is slowly improving.

I'm not sure if it's because sometimes Guthrie and blitz do tagging roles. That's why I think it's important for Scott Selwood to come in ASAP. It will free them both up.

 

[vinum coupe]

And Patrick, seeing as how you did that so quick, and I have no idea how to do it. Can you do another?

Duncan.

Because I think we'd all agree we'd expect similar output from Duncan and Guthrie each game. And I think Duncan has been down too.

Would be interesting.

 

[Seeds]

Guthrie's last 6 games:

Round 13 - Ranked 15th amongst the Geelong list
Round 14 - 11th
Round 16 - 18th
Round 17 - 16th
Round 18 - 8th
Round 19 - 15th

For a midfielder (they obviously score the most) this is nothing short of pathetic. Just another supporting indicator that the guy is horribly out of form. Thanks for bringing up the suggestion. Anything to offer here Nakia ? Still waiting for something from you that suggests he's NOT out of form. Anything?

No surprise that Dangerfield is number 1 in all but 1 of those games from memory. No correlation to scores and performance? Nah...

So not once was he in the bottom four. How about we drop those players first.

 

[Seeds]

And Patrick, seeing as how you did that so quick, and I have no idea how to do it. Can you do another?

Duncan.

Because I think we'd all agree we'd expect similar output from Duncan and Guthrie each game. And I think Duncan has been down too.

Would be interesting.

Would be more interesting to do it over the whole season to see if there was a change in performance.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

As per usual...

He's right, you're demanding explanations, yet not able to discuss the topic - short of posts like the above, or "he won't be dropped, I know that" is about the limit of your ability here. Head in sand supporter.

I gave you clear reasons why I think Guthrie is failing as a mid, yet you can't respond to any of the questions asked of you, nor address my points.

All I read was some mumbo jumbo to suit a narrative, not an answer to a question.

I also never said he won't be dropped or is above getting dropped... he isn't in 'poor form' like your imagination seems to think.

Yes, but you have to understand some of these clowns like Nakia only count kicks and handballs and probably wouldn't even have mental capacity to understand anything beyond that.

 

[cats_09]

He's been poor since that blinder he played in Adelaide.
Blicavs, Duncan, Motlop are in the same boat although Motlop is slowly improving.

I'm not sure if it's because sometimes Guthrie and blitz do tagging roles. That's why I think it's important for Scott Selwood to come in ASAP. It will free them both up.

I think Caddy coming back in will help those guys also - people were questioning Caddy's form prior to his injury but I think we have seen his value to the team during his absence.