Cam Rayner

[danster168]

“The ironic thing is Fritsch has kicked more goals than any other Brisbane player over a 4 year period.”

Again, Charlie has kicked more goals in this time.

That’s remarkably simplistic - do you think all forwards in the AFL are just instructed to “kick goals”? Or do you think that perhaps there is some nuance, and there’s more to it than just “kick goals”…? If not, I suppose the AA team would be easier to select - just pick the top 6 in the Coleman leaderboard.

So stats don’t tell the full story, but they do when it’s convenient to your crusade? Okay.

Rayner has the tools to be a weapon in a few places - but not the tank, and thus consistency. He was certainly the midfield answer when he skittled the Dees at the G, though.

I think the last 5 weeks is reasonably relevant as it provides some recent evidence of how a player is performing. If we want to talk about the season, Rayner is averaging 40 (FORTY) times as many clearances as Fritsch. Far superior!

Averages 5.2 CBA’s in the last 5 weeks. Compared to Neale at 26.8, it’s really not a whole lot?

A little outrageous of me to suggest a 24 year-old who sat out a year with an ACL might not have reached his peak, I know, but I said it and I can’t take it back.

Clearly, it's more reflective to use more goals per game. Unless you're saying that playing more games is a skill. Fritsch has kicked more goals (per game) than any other Brisbane forward.

Kicking goals is the main role of a forward. Regarding the AA team, they basically do just pick the top couple of key forwards that kick the most goals, the top small forwards that kick the most goals.

Rayner playing 1 good game a season doesn't warrant a player being good in that position. After 6 years, Rayner is still a C grader and as you point out, he doesn't have the tank or the ball finding ability. He just has no idea how to find the footy. That's why they played him at half back where you have first year players like Mckercher getting the ball 37 times and he still couldn't find the footy.

Dude, don't ever compare a spud like Rayner to a guy that has kicked 6 in a granny, made an AA squad and has averaged more goals than almost every other forward over a 4 year period.. Rayner had his chance and he blew it . One of, if not the worst player on the entire ground. Compare Fritsch to Charlie Cameron, not to Rayner. Compare Rayner to Daniel Turner, or Tom Sparrow. You're talking in the wrong league.

A '24 year old who did his acl' 3 years ago. Why did you purposely leave out the '3 years ago' bit? An acl doesn't take 3 years to recover from. He's played 3 FULL seasons since then. Absolutely no excuse.

So tell me, what does Rayner actually do? The floor is yours. He doesn't find the ball, he doesn't kick goals, he doesn't apply defensive pressure. He doesn't stand up in big games.

What weapons does he have? He can jump and kick the football a long way? Cool.

 

[paulige]

Eugh - if someone else can take this one, I’d be grateful.

Otherwise, I’ll get to it tomorrow.

Off to dream about Cam becoming elite and making the AA squad one day… maybe Danny will have nightmares about the 10 coaches votes Cam got for his demolition job on the dees this year… sweet dreams!

 

[janty]

How has such a shit irrelevant player got a thread 135 pages long.

Welcome to Big Footy.

 

[Happy_Neale]

He was elite though for 6 years. That's why he demanded 2 first rounders when traded from gws. 6 years of elite service is a great draft selection. You're getting sucked in by recency bias again.

Fritsch is still top 10 in the entire league for goals. Damn elite for a guy that is 188cm. If Rayner was top 10, you'd be frothing. Not many have fritta's skillset. His kicking accuracy, his ability to kick goals on his opposite foot are unmatched.

P.s. you tell me your redrafted 2017 draft. Go up to pick 35 and post it.

Let’s look at some AA squad members next

Garrick Ibbotson - forever elite

Illustrious company for Bailey Fritsch

 

[danster168]

Let’s look at some AA squad members next

Garrick Ibbotson - forever elite

Illustrious company for Bailey Fritsch

haha. top 10 in this year's goal kicking. What a drop off!

Ibbotson > Rayner.

I'm still waiting for your top 35...

 

[royboys4eva]

Think you can put the description of Rayner as a spud to the side. Not one club would consider him a spud. I'm sure Goodwin says in his pre match discussions - don't worry about Rayner he is a spud!! You know the guy who tore us apart at the G early in the season with half a dozen clearances in one qtr! What a spud.

Most Lions fans would agree he needs to work a bit harder and get the ball a bit more but when he does get it - you have a player who is high impact - breaks tackles - bursts out of stoppages - kicks goals or takes a pack mark. The same things Pickett does for the Dees. I guess he must be a spud as well?

 

[Happy_Neale]

haha. top 10 in this year's goal kicking. What a drop off!

Ibbotson > Rayner.

I'm still waiting for your top 35...

Matt Taberner - forever elite

 

[Happy_Neale]

“The ironic thing is Fritsch has kicked more goals than any other Brisbane player over a 4 year period.”

Again, Charlie has kicked more goals in this time.

Dan will continue to use his flawed 'average goals' logic for this point

In his mind Cody Weightman is worth more in 2024 than Joe Daniher, Aaron Naughton, Bailey Fritsch (ironically) and Nick Larkey. Bizarre

 

[Miller1971]

Rayner is a let down from being a #1 pick, lets be honest

Is he a better player than Fritsch? Debateable. Despite the numbers suggesting otherwise, I'd take Rayner over Fritsch in a heartbeat.

There are teams Fritsch wouldn't even get a game for.

I reckon if Rayner was on the list of any AFL club, he is playing most weekends - other than at the Swans right now - not sure thats the same for Fritsch

All of this doen't change the fact that if you re-did the draft, Rayner would struggle to make the Top 15 from his year. Not the first #1 pick you can say that for, and possibly not the last.

 

[danster168]

Dan will continue to use his flawed 'average goals' logic for this point

In his mind Cody Weightman is worth more in 2024 than Joe Daniher, Aaron Naughton, Bailey Fritsch (ironically) and Nick Larkey. Bizarre

flawed average goals? hahahaha. you're hilarious. yeah imagine using average goals per game as a measure. Oh Happy.

firstly, Weightman is a very good player.

Secondly, Fritsch has played 81 games for 184 goals at 2.27 goals per game. Charlie Cameron has played 92 games for 193 goals at 2.09 goals per game. A large sample size has shown that Fritsch kicks more goals than Cameron. The stats show that clearly. Put that in your pipe You want a bet that in 11 games (when he hits 92 games) that he won't kick 9 goals?

Keep dodging making your top 35 list from the 2017 draft. Duly noted.

 

[Happy_Neale]

flawed average goals? hahahaha. you're hilarious. yeah imagine using average goals per game as a measure. Oh Happy.

firstly, Weightman is a very good player.

Secondly, Fritsch has played 81 games for 184 goals at 2.27 goals per game. Charlie Cameron has played 92 games for 193 goals at 2.09 goals per game. A large sample size has shown that Fritsch kicks more goals than Cameron. The stats show that clearly. Put that in your pipe You want a bet that in 11 games (when he hits 92 games) that he won't kick 9 goals?

Keep dodging making your top 35 list from the 2017 draft. Duly noted.

You seem upset. Unfortunately a basic understanding of maths will tell you it is easier to increase your average by playing less games. Fritsch missing games for injury is bad luck for him, Charlie being more durable and not having glass ankles or whatever is to his advantage, not disadvantage. But go off.

P.S. Devon Smith - forever elite

 

[CarterS]

What did Rayner do to danster to cause such passionate hatred?

 

[Happy_Neale]

What did Rayner do to danster to cause such passionate hatred?

Hasn’t been the same since this. Much more vitriol than usual. I am concerned honestly

 

[danster168]

You seem upset. Unfortunately a basic understanding of maths will tell you it is easier to increase your average by playing less games. Fritsch missing games for injury is bad luck for him, Charlie being more durable and not having glass ankles or whatever is to his advantage, not disadvantage. But go off.

P.S. Devon Smith - forever elite

so over 80 games isn't a big enough sample size? essentially 4 full years of footy. spare me. you're talking nonsense.

huh? fritsch has played 80/89 games and you're calling that injury prone.

I'm going back to Elixuh, he talks sense. your arguments are like a 10 year olds.

 

[Happy_Neale]

so over 80 games isn't a big enough sample size? essentially 4 full years of footy. spare me. you're talking nonsense.

huh? fritsch has played 80/89 games and you're calling that injury prone.

I'm going back to Elixuh, he talks sense. your arguments are like a 10 year olds.

Haha okay mate. You might be right, 10 year olds probably understand averages better than you appear to.

Good luck with your arbitrary rankings, flawed stats and ad nauseam’s

 

[Elixuh]

Will Tom ‘full cream’ Fullarton get a run this week Danny with Gawn out?

 

[danster168]

2020-2023, Cameron kicked 25 more goals than Frittata. Given Frittata offers literally zero other than goals kicked, this is a shellacking. Daniher and Hipwood also have roles that extend far beyond just finishing off the good work of others - any comparison there is irrelevant.

Rayner offers far more than the stats sheet will tell you. Which is why this fixation with disposals and goals is a little baffling. One example; Cyril Rioli, a truly remarkable player, who averaged 15 disposals and 1.5 goals per game, for his career.

To be clear, I’m not comparing the two - just illustrating the point that numbers are not everything. Sometimes you need to watch players play. There’s no column in the stat sheet for breaking tackles, for example, but it was one of Dusty’s greatest weapons at his peak (and more recently, Harley Reid). A broken tackle and sudden surge forward is one of the best ways to blow open an opposition defence.

Over the last 5 weeks, where Rayner has been able to settle into a role he’s suited to (predominantly forward with bursts through the middle) he’s averaged 1.6 goals, 13.6 disposals, 2.6 clearances, and 3.2 inside 50’s.

By comparison, over his last 5 games, Frittata is going at 1.0, 11.0, 0.2, and 2.2. Of course, I wouldn’t judge him for his low clearance numbers - that would be akin to criticising Rayner for his low disposals numbers - just completely irrelevant to the role he plays.

All in all Rayner seems to be finding his groove - I’d be happy if he continued showing the form he has over the last month. And who knows, the 24 year-old who did an ACL and missed a year at 21 might even still have some improvement left in him..

2024: Fritsch has more goals than Cameron not surprising considering he's averages are higher per game the last 4 years.

 

[Elixuh]

2024: Fritsch has more goals than Cameron not surprising considering he's averages are higher per game the last 4 years.

But Danny don’t you really only have 2 genuine forwards - banana fritter and the human missile Pickett?

 

[CarterS]

To be clear, I’m not comparing the two - just illustrating the point that numbers are not everything. Sometimes you need to watch players play.

the other day Rayner spoiled a kickout which directly resulted in a goal after Hipwood picked up the loose ball- barely a blip on the stats sheet but you may as well mark it down as a goal for Rayner.

 

[CarterS]

Think you can put the description of Rayner as a spud to the side. Not one club would consider him a spud

It is about exaggerating for effect... he's not merely a bit inconsistent... but he plays one good game a year and he is a spud and about to be delisted... etc.

 

[danster168]

But Danny don’t you really only have 2 genuine forwards - banana fritter and the human missile Pickett?

correct. Fritsch gets the best defender.

 

[Elixuh]

correct. Fritsch gets the best defender.

He was tagging Harris andrews in the Brisbane game. Was sad to see

 

[danster168]

He was tagging Harris andrews in the Brisbane game. Was sad to see

haha, and still kicked more goals than Cameron.

 

[jasonrampage2010]

haha, and still kicked more goals than Cameron.

Both Rayner and Cameron kicked more goals than barely avfritch that game

 

[paulige]

Both Rayner and Cameron kicked more goals than barely avfritch that game

Danster acknowledges and appreciates facts.

… not those facts.