Cam Rayner

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Hollow Knight

Imperfect vessel
May 3, 2005
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People I come on BigFooty to laugh at:
That Falcon guy
This Danster guy

Unadulterated word vomit

You know it's bad when some of his fellow Melbourne supporters are sending PMs to people saying "ignore him, everyone on our board thinks he is an idiot".
 

Meteoric Rise

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I see what you're saying but picture this: Oliver and Petracca. Let's say they were in the same draft. Petracca spent the first 5 years of his career playing half forward because he wasn't fit enough/good enough. He then flicked the switch in 2020. Compare him to Oliver who won our best and fairest in his 2nd season with 30 touches a game. Let's say we re-draft them now. Many people would take petracca due to his damage forward of centre. But Oliver is miles ahead in total value because he's produced 4 more years of elite football, even if Petracca has the slightly higher upside (in some peoples eyes). For Petracca to eclipse Oliver in total career value he would have to produce 4 years of elite football to Oliver's 4 years of serviceable football. And that's simply not going to happen unless Petracca plays elite football from 32-36 and Oliver retires early.

This is a perfect example of total value vs re-drafted value. I would take Oliver every single time if I had to re-draft those guys as 18 year olds as he's played 4 more elite years.But I would understand why some people would draft Petracca ahead of Oliver going forward.

In my eyes the greatest signifier of a player’s value isn’t what he does when it barely matters.

It is what he does in his prime and in big games that matters most in terms of the value of his career overall. Oliver is a tremendous player well worthy of his standing in the game. Petracca is a more valuable player because he can tear teams to shreds in big games with passages of play other players cannot replicate. There are a few players that can do the sort of thing Oliver does, Cripps, Green are two that spring to mind. I don’t think anyone in the competition can replicate Petracca’s best plays at the moment.

It barely matters what they did when they were developing AFL players. Any club would recruit a player who can win them half a dozen finals over a player who can play at a consistently high level over their whole career, but is perhaps not as likely to tear a final apart. In terms of what is most valuable in the game, the difference between finishing 1st and 2nd on the ladder is much greater than the difference between finishing say 8th and 14th.
 

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danster168

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In my eyes the greatest signifier of a player’s value isn’t what he does when it barely matters.

It is what he does in his prime and in big games that matters most in terms of the value of his career overall. Oliver is a tremendous player well worthy of his standing in the game. Petracca is a more valuable player because he can tear teams to shreds in big games with passages of play other players cannot replicate. There are a few players that can do the sort of thing Oliver does, Cripps, Green are two that spring to mind. I don’t think anyone in the competition can replicate Petracca’s best plays at the moment.

It barely matters what they did when they were developing AFL players. Any club would recruit a player who can win them half a dozen finals over a player who can play at a consistently high level over their whole career, but is perhaps not as likely to tear a final apart. In terms of what is most valuable in the game, the difference between finishing 1st and 2nd on the ladder is much greater than the difference between finishing say 8th and 14th.
Okay, I guess this is where we disagree. I'd say 90% of dees fans rate Oliver higher than Gawn and Petracca. He has been consistent from day 1. Oliver didn't develop like you say, he was basically elite from day 1. He won a best and fairest in his 2nd season. But even on the big stage he won our best and fairest in our premiership year last year also. But alas, this is getting off topic. Oliver v petracca wasn't really my point. My point is more about total value.

I guess we're talking match winners. People talk about match winners. But match winners by definition seems to only people that kick goals. i.e. Sam Walsh isn't, Oliver isn't, Petracca is, Bont is, etc. I don't agree with the notion of match winners.

I agree with you in Petracca's skillset but in my opinion, there's too much ground to make up. And what about players for teams that don't make finals? Like is Patrick Cripps good work glossed over because he's been in a bad team or taken them from say 18th to 14th to 12th to 7th sort of thing?
 

Meteoric Rise

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Okay, I guess this is where we disagree. I'd say 90% of dees fans rate Oliver higher than Gawn and Petracca. He has been consistent from day 1. Oliver didn't develop like you say, he was basically elite from day 1. He won a best and fairest in his 2nd season. But even on the big stage he won our best and fairest in our premiership year last year also. But alas, this is getting off topic. Oliver v petracca wasn't really my point. My point is more about total value.

I guess we're talking match winners. People talk about match winners. But match winners by definition seems to only people that kick goals. i.e. Sam Walsh isn't, Oliver isn't, Petracca is, Bont is, etc. I don't agree with the notion of match winners.

I agree with you in Petracca's skillset but in my opinion, there's too much ground to make up. And what about players for teams that don't make finals? Like is Patrick Cripps good work glossed over because he's been in a bad team or taken them from say 18th to 14th to 12th to 7th sort of thing?

Any player who improves any team is worthy of merit commensurate to the impact he has.

But the big finals come and go rapidly. You only get so many cracks at it and these guys are largely going to be judged on what happens next when they break clear in the middle of the ground, and deliver into the forward line in the biggest games. Some players like Dangerfield and Fyfe for two examples have had that gun pointed at their heads and been found wanting. Others like Petracca and Martin have delivered the goods, on cue, on time, and as promised. And loads of others lie somewhere in between. But the ones who can get it done in that theatre of war, they will always be the ones most sought after by the clubs, and rightly so.

A Robert Flower or Bob Skilton who barely got to play in finals, well we cannot fairly judge their value based on lack of match winning efforts in big games. So you need to project how they might have gone if given the opportunity. I think both would have been superstar big game players, based on things they achieved in their careers, and having watched Flower play live and footage of Skilton. Cripps is another who has not yet had the opportunity but he probably will get it. We can see then how he navigates that trial. Imo projecting from his past performances, in the big clutch moments, he will break clear, look up into f50, and hit an interceptor lace out. Hopefully I am wrong.

Dangerfield has played more higher rated seasons than Dustin Martin. On the thread comparing the two, in the end there was not one poster left who wasn’t prepared to admit that Martin had been the more valuable player across his career. I am pretty certain if you asked all 18 clubs if they would prefer to use a high draft pick to draft a Dangerfield over a Martin they would decline. Yet up until even past 2017 the vast majority of posters were rating Dangerfield higher.

The way I rate footballers, I never rated Dangerfield anywhere near the absolute top level of players because of the poor kicking under pressure and often under no pressure. Fyfe the same. Kicking is half the game, always has been, always will be. Therefore it follows that the very best players are brilliant kicks. Petracca is a superb kick. I don’t think Oliver is.
 

Elixuh

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lol what is this thread.

Anyone arguing with the Melbourne supporter, you're doing so at an immediate disadvantage - he clearly has much more spare time than any of you do. Actually pretty impressive to sit there on a Monday typing away paragraph after paragraph about nothing when his team sits undefeated and are reigning premiers. I suppose every team on Bigfooty has a few posters like him.
 

Meteoric Rise

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lol what is this thread.

Anyone arguing with the Melbourne supporter, you're doing so at an immediate disadvantage - he clearly has much more spare time than any of you do. Actually pretty impressive to sit there on a Monday typing away paragraph after paragraph about nothing when his team sits undefeated and are reigning premiers. I suppose every team on Bigfooty has a few posters like him.

Danster might have as much spare time as me during weekdays, but he couldn’t possibly have more. All my time is spare midweek. 😁
 

danster168

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Any player who improves any team is worthy of merit commensurate to the impact he has.

But the big finals come and go rapidly. You only get so many cracks at it and these guys are largely going to be judged on what happens next when they break clear in the middle of the ground, and deliver into the forward line in the biggest games. Some players like Dangerfield and Fyfe for two examples have had that gun pointed at their heads and been found wanting. Others like Petracca and Martin have delivered the goods, on cue, on time, and as promised. And loads of others lie somewhere in between. But the ones who can get it done in that theatre of war, they will always be the ones most sought after by the clubs, and rightly so.

A Robert Flower or Bob Skilton who barely got to play in finals, well we cannot fairly judge their value based on lack of match winning efforts in big games. So you need to project how they might have gone if given the opportunity. I think both would have been superstar big game players, based on things they achieved in their careers, and having watched Flower play live and footage of Skilton. Cripps is another who has not yet had the opportunity but he probably will get it. We can see then how he navigates that trial. Imo projecting from his past performances, in the big clutch moments, he will break clear, look up into f50, and hit an interceptor lace out. Hopefully I am wrong.

Dangerfield has played more higher rated seasons than Dustin Martin. On the thread comparing the two, in the end there was not one poster left who wasn’t prepared to admit that Martin had been the more valuable player across his career. I am pretty certain if you asked all 18 clubs if they would prefer to use a high draft pick to draft a Dangerfield over a Martin they would decline. Yet up until even past 2017 the vast majority of posters were rating Dangerfield higher.

The way I rate footballers, I never rated Dangerfield anywhere near the absolute top level of players because of the poor kicking under pressure and often under no pressure. Fyfe the same. Kicking is half the game, always has been, always will be. Therefore it follows that the very best players are brilliant kicks. Petracca is a superb kick. I don’t think Oliver is.
Yeah, I see what you're saying. The big stage matters. but only if you get there. Petracca is actually one of the worst kicks for goal in the melbourne team. Oliver isn't a superb kick. But he's decent enough and for an inside mid he is pretty good I reckon.

Lol on your hypothetical of Cripps. I guess we're talking about the best of the best so it makes it harder to judge. When it all comes down to one game, i.e. finals I think it's too simplistic. Xavier Ellis almost won a norm smith medal. I think on any given day anyone can play well which is why guys like Martin and to a lesser degree Petracca get the kudos. But Oliver himself was a beast on the big stage. 33 touches, the match sealing goal on 3/4 time, and the most tackles on the ground.

But I think Xavier Ellis is a good example. I don't think 1 good game in a granny means that he trumps Marc Murphy who played consistently well for 300 games in a team fixed at the bottom of the ladder.
 

Meteoric Rise

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Yeah, I see what you're saying. The big stage matters. but only if you get there. Petracca is actually one of the worst kicks for goal in the melbourne team. Oliver isn't a superb kick. But he's decent enough and for an inside mid he is pretty good I reckon.

Lol on your hypothetical of Cripps. I guess we're talking about the best of the best so it makes it harder to judge. When it all comes down to one game, i.e. finals I think it's too simplistic. Xavier Ellis almost won a norm smith medal. I think on any given day anyone can play well which is why guys like Martin and to a lesser degree Petracca get the kudos. But Oliver himself was a beast on the big stage. 33 touches, the match sealing goal on 3/4 time, and the most tackles on the ground.

But I think Xavier Ellis is a good example. I don't think 1 good game in a granny means that he trumps Marc Murphy who played consistently well for 300 games in a team fixed at the bottom of the ladder.

Petracca’s field kicking is nothing short of brilliant from what I have been watching. There is nothing wrong with Oliver he is a terrific player, just not a super damaging kick.

Players like Ellis have performed well in some big games and good on them. But there are massive orders of magnitude between X Ellis’s 6 contested possession, 28 disposal, 1 goal + 1 goal assist Grand Final display and say Petracca’s 24 contested possession, 39 disposal, 2 goals + 2 goal assist Norm Smith winning display last year.

Ellis didn’t have a great finals record overall, the ball just found him a lot and he had one really nice final. So he is a poor example. In fact he is not even an example of what I was talking about. He is a Fritsch.

Let’s see where Rayner gets to, but he can win big contests that a hell of a lot of AFL players cannot win, and in finals, I want as many players like that as possible.
 

danster168

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Petracca’s field kicking is nothing short of brilliant from what I have been watching. There is nothing wrong with Oliver he is a terrific player, just not a super damaging kick.

Players like Ellis have performed well in some big games and good on them. But there are massive orders of magnitude between X Ellis’s 6 contested possession, 28 disposal, 1 goal + 1 goal assist Grand Final display and say Petracca’s 24 contested possession, 39 disposal, 2 goals + 2 goal assist Norm Smith winning display last year.

Ellis didn’t have a great finals record overall, the ball just found him a lot and he had one really nice final. So he is a poor example. In fact he is not even an example of what I was talking about. He is a Fritsch.

Let’s see where Rayner gets to, but he can win big contests that a hell of a lot of AFL players cannot win, and in finals, I want as many players like that as possible.
So Fritsch kicked bags of 6 & 7 during the year and 59 of the year and was in the AA squad so 6 wasn't that unexpected. And you can't compare him to Xavier Ellis.

But if you don't rate Fritsch for kicking the most goals in a granny for 20 years as well as 59 for the year then how am I supposed to rate Rayner who'll kick probably 25 goals for the year and quite likely not do much in finals? You are asking a lot of me. I think a guy with talent who doesn't apply defensive pressure should be kicking at least 35 in a season before getting respect.
 

masai tu

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Switkowski is a great player.

Champion Data have at least one thing right.

As for Rayner, he will turn out to be a good player, Top 20 worth, but not live up to the No. 1 draft position.

Interesting to look at the Top 5 from that draft, some taken for what they are, some taken on probability of top ability.
 

Checkered

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How fickle can you be? Does it mean Spargo was an AA candidate after he had 22 touches and a goal? Does Toby Bedford become a gun forward pocket after kicking 2 and some electrifying play? Wow, I'd love to be a supporter like you riding the bumps of a weekly competition and hopping on and off players on a weekly basis. Whose next? maybe Maurice Rioli is better than Cyril now. lol

This is incredible. He’s actually in that much of a tizzy that he’s quoting his own posts to go and argue with hahaha
 

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Dazb86

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Ed Richards is quietly putting together a good year playing in his natural position.
 

Dazb86

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Save it for the Ed Richards thread pal

No. I don't think I will.

The red flash deserves more props in this thread.

It's a real shame people can't see he is a decent player other than Danster.

I'm backing Dansters astute assessment that Spargo and Richards are on level pegging with Rayner.
 
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Dazb86

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But I can understand some Brisbane fans not rating him due to AFL being the 2nd sport up there. I also barely understand rugby but rate a fair few Storm players when I catch them on tv
 

Elixuh

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No. I don't think I will.

The red flash deserves more props in this thread.

It's a real shame people can't see he is a decent player other than Danster.

I'm backing Dansters astute assessment that Spargo and Richards are on level pegging with Rayner.

I don’t rate Ed’s ability to use his non dominant when kicking. He uses it 8% of the time compared to the AFL average of 17% and is also less effective with it then the AFL average. I think it is an area of improvement for him.
 

danster168

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No. I don't think I will.

The red flash deserves more props in this thread.

It's a real shame people can't see he is a decent player other than Danster.

I'm backing Dansters astute assessment that Spargo and Richards are on level pegging with Rayner.
Geez, I hope not. if Rayner was on the dees list he'd be playing for Casey Scorpions each week.
 

Dazb86

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I don’t rate Ed’s ability to use his non dominant when kicking. He uses it 8% of the time compared to the AFL average of 17% and is also less effective with it then the AFL average. I think it is an area of improvement for him.

Blokes going at 80+% for the year. No need for a right foot.
 

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