Cam Rayner

Remove this Banner Ad

Wizard

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 6, 2005
19,814
8,329
Adelaide
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
OKC, Sturt, Cardinals
Jeez, starting to show some super exciting signs. Wasn't the only one who fell away in the second half but was one of the best players on the ground in the first. His strength bursting out of packs is what I'd always hoped he'd develop. I think I'll cope if he doesn't get coaches votes.

Was brilliant in patches last night. By the start of the 2024 season he will be a top 10 player in the game.

Will get more midfield oppurtunity and excel when Neale leaves in 2023.
 

Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 4, 2008
5,078
13,643
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
While probably no where near accurate I looked at the Brisbane board player of year voting (top 5 polled players get votes each week) to get a guide. He started slow but last few weeks has been in the votes a fair bit (often picking up 3rd best or there abouts). No real shame in being behind someone like Neale most weeks when he is in Brownlow contention form.

At the moment I'd say Rayner would be somewhere top 5-10. If he keeps going like he has last few weeks I think he could challenge top 5. Playing consistent games is I think important for our BnF but he is probably not going to push out Neale and McCluggage

A 5-10 B & F finish in a top 4 team would be a superb effort for a 22yo off a knee reco. The Demon players danster is rating above Rayner from the same draft - Petty, Fritsch and Spargo - have not got near achieving that.

As a guide, Zac Bailey was 8th in the Lions B & F in 2021, Starcevich 4th.

Other players from the 2017 draft to finish top 10 in their club’s B & F in 2021 where the club made finals were:

Sam Taylor 5th GWS

Aaron Naughton 8th Western Bulldogs



Others to figure in the top 10 for non finalists:

Andrew Brayshaw 3rd Fremantle

Adam Cerra 5th Fremantle

Sam Switkowski 10th Fremantle

Will Powell 2nd Gold Coast

Charlie Ballard 5th Gold Coast

Nick Holman 9th Gold Coast

Dylan Moore 4th Hawthorn

James Worpel =9th Hawthorn

Luke Uniacke 5th Kangaroos

Liam Baker +2nd Tigey Wigez

Tim Kelly 6th West Coast

Oscar Allen 10th West Coast


No player from the 2017 draft had a top 5 finish for a top 4 club in 2021.

Aaron Naughton was the only player from the 2017 draft to finish top 10 for a top 4 club in the 2021 Toyota AfL Premiership season.


As can be seen from the list above there were 7 players from that draft to record top 5 finishes for their respective clubs where those clubs missed the finals.
 
Last edited:

Log in to remove this ad.

augie

Club Legend
Feb 15, 2006
1,006
1,357
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Was brilliant in patches last night. By the start of the 2024 season he will be a top 10 player in the game.

Will get more midfield oppurtunity and excel when Neale leaves in 2023.
That is a very big call to make about someone who is showing signs, but has really done nothing.

He would need to get above all but 9 of the below. Good luck with that.

Bontempelli
Oliver
Petracca
King
King
De Goey
Daicos
Walsh
Curnow
McKay
McLuggage
Weitering
Stewart
Cameron
Mills
Macrae
Moore
Lewis
Miller
Steele
Parker
Sicily
Greene
Green
J Kelly
Cripps
Jackson
Grundy
Darcy
Brayshaw
Serong
Cerra
Crisp
Smith
Bolton
and however many more there are that I've missed
 

JasRulz63

Brownlow Medallist
May 26, 2007
10,249
10,849
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Yeah, statistic wise. Spargo is a pressure forward in a premiership team. Rayner is an unfit plodder. This is what happens when you get caught up in stats.

He had 16 cba's. 20 touches is underwhelming. it's not terrible, but its definitely not good. Rayner had 5 clearances.

You don't make that up ground with 12 games of 15.7 touches a game.lol.

9 disposals in the 2nd half with PLENTY of CBA's. that's what you call average.
 

danster168

Premiership Player
Apr 29, 2016
3,391
3,204
AFL Club
Melbourne
just speaking your language. i'm more than happy to let it lie with the afl coaches and maybe one day Rayner may squeeze into the votes. Lets stay tuned 😉
 

Jeremiah001

Debutant
Mar 18, 2021
111
198
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Time for a poll. Neutrals only. Pick a player to slot into your team today. Rayner or Spargo?
 

danster168

Premiership Player
Apr 29, 2016
3,391
3,204
AFL Club
Melbourne
Time for a poll. Neutrals only. Pick a player to slot into your team today. Rayner or Spargo?
You've missed the point. You're disregarding total value produced thus far.

Very similar to the Cripps vs Oliver debate. all the Carlton fans hyping up Cripps after5 or 6 games. We all know how that went.
 

JasRulz63

Brownlow Medallist
May 26, 2007
10,249
10,849
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
just speaking your language. i'm more than happy to let it lie with the afl coaches and maybe one day Rayner may squeeze into the votes. Lets stay tuned 😉

How many times as Luke Jackson featured in the coaches votes this year? If it's only once I assume that's how we should judge his value. Second round pick?
 

Cubs2Lions

Club Legend
Jan 12, 2021
1,508
3,306
Adelaide
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
South Adelaide
Time for a poll. Neutrals only.
homer simpson GIF
 

danster168

Premiership Player
Apr 29, 2016
3,391
3,204
AFL Club
Melbourne
How many times as Luke Jackson featured in the coaches votes this year? If it's only once I assume that's how we should judge his value. Second round pick?
no idea how many times he's polled. but luke jackson isn't playing good footy at the moment but trade value is based on 3 things: age, what they've shown so far, what they may show in the future.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Lionheart182

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 29, 2008
10,086
7,933
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Blazers/Heat, ORST beavers
no idea how many times he's polled. but luke jackson isn't playing good footy at the moment but trade value is based on 3 things: age, what they've shown so far, what they may show in the future.
because you're doing the poll from now on. Conveniently skipping over the 4-5 years of irrelevancy of Rayner while spargo was playing in prelims in 2018 and grannys 😀
Are you arguing against yourself? You just admitted a players value is at least partly based on potential. Spargo may have done more than Rayner to this point (debatable) but by what measure is he a better option for what will be produced in the future?

Unless of course your rankings are completely arbitrary (read: clueless).
 

TheBigHorne

Team Captain
Feb 19, 2022
548
1,175
Inside your house
AFL Club
North Melbourne
because you're doing the poll from now on. Conveniently skipping over the 4-5 years of irrelevancy of Rayner while spargo was playing in prelims in 2018 and grannys 😀
If you actually compare the two numbers wise Rayner has outperformed Spargo every year besides 2021 where Rayner was injured the whole year.
 

danster168

Premiership Player
Apr 29, 2016
3,391
3,204
AFL Club
Melbourne
If you actually compare the two numbers wise Rayner has outperformed Spargo every year besides 2021 where Rayner was injured the whole year.
yeah lets compare a pressure forward whose sole role is to chase and apply defensive pressure with a number 1 pick who is given every chance to justify his selection. raynor is a failed pick. Now its just a matter of limiting the damage.

Coaches votes are out. So apparently, despite playing so well, he missed out on Coaches votes again. the streak continues. Thats okay, he's a 14-18th best player in the team. But with so many CBA's, he should've got a coaches vote by now.
 

Lionheart182

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 29, 2008
10,086
7,933
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Blazers/Heat, ORST beavers
yeah lets compare a pressure forward whose sole role is to chase and apply defensive pressure with a number 1 pick who is given every chance to justify his selection. raynor is a failed pick. Now its just a matter of limiting the damage.

Coaches votes are out. So apparently, despite playing so well, he missed out on Coaches votes again. the streak continues. Thats okay, he's a 14-18th best player in the team. But with so many CBA's, he should've got a coaches vote by now.
One of your first posts in this thread:

How could you be? He was pick 1 in the 2017 draft and he went before: Andrew Brayshaw, Davies-Uniacke, Cerra, Naughton, Zac Bailey, Balta, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor, Fritsch, Tom McCartin, Liam Baker (rookie draft), Mihocek (rookie draft), Starcevich, Wil Powell and Worpel who are all significantly better players. That's 17 players better without even blinking. But I also think Rayner is worse than Hunter Clark, Spargo, Switkowski, Miers, Petty, Ainsworth, Brent Daniels, Roarke Smith, Amartey, and Jack Higgins. So that's 27 players that are better.

So you took Rayner at 1, when if done now you could argue he'd be ranked around 28. Obviously this is as of right now.

You were fine comparing different types of players when it suited your argument. Now your own metrics which you made up are ruining your argumemt you're shifting the goal posts.
 

masai tu

All Australian
Oct 17, 2021
634
981
AFL Club
Fremantle
I’m scratching my head here, due to this pumping of Rayners tyres.

The way I look at him, he is a player who was in the middle lane of a 100 metres race ( favourite ), doesn’t get in the qualifying positions, so is sent to the repercharge heats. Runs in the repercharge heats, and qualifies to come back into the semi finals. Does well and qualifies for the final in lane 8.

Put simply, he was a number 1 pick, showed so so form and then had a major injury. Before injury he was playing like a pick 20+ player. He has now resurrected his career, and is now back to being rated in the top 15 of his draft.

If he’d been drafted at pick 19, people would be saying that he was a good pick and had some more upside. Being drafted at pick 1, people have expected a lot more from him.

Great that he is playing well, but still a long way to go before he should be in the discussion of top 10 midfielders.
 

danster168

Premiership Player
Apr 29, 2016
3,391
3,204
AFL Club
Melbourne
I’m scratching my head here, due to this pumping of Rayners tyres.

The way I look at him, he is a player who was in the middle lane of a 100 metres race ( favourite ), doesn’t get in the qualifying positions, so is sent to the repercharge heats. Runs in the repercharge heats, and qualifies to come back into the semi finals. Does well and qualifies for the final in lane 8.

Put simply, he was a number 1 pick, showed so so form and then had a major injury. Before injury he was playing like a pick 20+ player. He has now resurrected his career, and is now back to being rated in the top 15 of his draft.

If he’d been drafted at pick 19, people would be saying that he was a good pick and had some more upside. Being drafted at pick 1, people have expected a lot more from him.

Great that he is playing well, but still a long way to go before he should be in the discussion of top 10 midfielders.
i agree with everything you said. i personally rate him a little lower than 15 in his draft but alas i agree with the sentiment.
 

Meteoric Rise

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 4, 2008
5,078
13,643
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
For reference, he knocks out Worpel, but solely based on recency bias. He's still miles behind on total value.
He knocks out Miers, Roarke Smith and arguably Will Powell. So that brings him up to 27.

You're kidding yourself if you think Rayner, a guy who has 'broken out' for a career high avg of 15.7 possessions belongs anywhere near that top 21.

But like I said in previous posts, he's coming from a long way back, so he needs to produced for 1 or 2 seasons before making any great strides.


1. Naughton
2. Brayshaw
3. Tim Kelly
4. Fritsch
5. Zac Bailey
6. Oscar Allen
7. Cerra
8. Davies-Uniacke
9. Liam Ryan
10. Balta
11. Wil Powell
12. Starcevich
13. Sam Taylor
14. Dylan Moore
15. Liam Baker
16. Tom McCartin
17. Mihocek
18. Spargo
19. Worpel
20. Brent Daniels
21. Petty
-------------------------------------
22. Miers
23. Switkowski
24. Ben Paton
25. Xerrie
26. Ainsworth
27. Paton
28. Jack Higgins
29. Roarke Smith
30. Rayner
31. Nick Holman


This is your original list Dan. You listed Ainsworth ahead of him but the Ainsworth you listed is not from the 2017 draft. The Ainsworth from the 2017 draft has already been delisted by Eagles.

At 24 you have Ben Paton, and at 28 you have “Paton” because you were desperately trying to find ways to relegate Rayner.

Now you seem to have Rayner ahead of Smith Worpel Miers and Powell. So presumably all this means you now have Rayner in position 24, not 27.

It is not feasible to have him below Spargo on any sensible measure, you are being foolish over that. So that moves Rayner to 23 on your list, on the back of a few improved games. Your list is not standing up too well is it? You also have him sitting below long term injured players Allen, Daniels, who have not objectively achieved more than Rayner. And you have him below a few low ceiling types in Xerrie, Switkowski, Mihocek.

Would you give up a late first round pick, say pick 17, for Rayner right now?
 
Last edited:

masai tu

All Australian
Oct 17, 2021
634
981
AFL Club
Fremantle
i agree with everything you said. i personally rate him a little lower than 15 in his draft but alas i agree with the sentiment.

Yep, maybe I was being over generous about him being in the top 15 of the draft. His body of work is underwhelming.

I just don’t see this raving about him, puts in patches of work, .... now and then.
 

a mayes ing

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 1, 2013
9,383
7,493
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
It was clear and said prior to him being drafted that his body shape wasn't right and that he would need several years to build up a tank, big enough to play a whole game of AFL. His first few years should be taken with a grain of salt because he just didn't have the endurance to do any repeat efforts and do major plays. He was ready to break out last season but did his ACL. Finally his body shape is right now and showing what he is capable off, however, this is still coming off an ACL, so he is building up. Also, stats are completly misleading. Tom Rockliff, when he played for the Lions was averaging 30+ disposals and had wasn't particularly effective or had much hurt factor. Players like Petracca and Rayner have maximum hurt factor with every disposal. Usually these players average few possessions but that is okay because of the damage they possess. Petracca is a freak who gets lots of possessions and is very damaging. Rayner is still getting that midfield synergy right and is showing with increased possessions. Not expecting him to be the best player in the draft, but to be a very damaging player forward of centre, if that happens then the Lions would be very happy with that.
 

bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
8,730
9,471
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
It was clear and said prior to him being drafted that his body shape wasn't right and that he would need several years to build up a tank, big enough to play a whole game of AFL. His first few years should be taken with a grain of salt because he just didn't have the endurance to do any repeat efforts and do major plays. He was ready to break out last season but did his ACL. Finally his body shape is right now and showing what he is capable off, however, this is still coming off an ACL, so he is building up. Also, stats are completly misleading. Tom Rockliff, when he played for the Lions was averaging 30+ disposals and had wasn't particularly effective or had much hurt factor. Players like Petracca and Rayner have maximum hurt factor with every disposal. Usually these players average few possessions but that is okay because of the damage they possess. Petracca is a freak who gets lots of possessions and is very damaging. Rayner is still getting that midfield synergy right and is showing with increased possessions. Not expecting him to be the best player in the draft, but to be a very damaging player forward of centre, if that happens then the Lions would be very happy with that.

Still had some puppy fat when he first came to us. So much natural talent that he coasted through the juniors

Rayner 2018

Cameron_Rayner_2018.2.jpg


and 2022

PMBrAd22RF-17.jpg
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad