Cam Rayner

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gungho

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I’m scratching my head here, due to this pumping of Rayners tyres.

The way I look at him, he is a player who was in the middle lane of a 100 metres race ( favourite ), doesn’t get in the qualifying positions, so is sent to the repercharge heats. Runs in the repercharge heats, and qualifies to come back into the semi finals. Does well and qualifies for the final in lane 8.

Put simply, he was a number 1 pick, showed so so form and then had a major injury. Before injury he was playing like a pick 20+ player. He has now resurrected his career, and is now back to being rated in the top 15 of his draft.

If he’d been drafted at pick 19, people would be saying that he was a good pick and had some more upside. Being drafted at pick 1, people have expected a lot more from him.

Great that he is playing well, but still a long way to go before he should be in the discussion of top 10 midfielders.
Think that is a bit of a harsh assessment in my opinion. Watching him on the weekend - he has many traits that many other players just don't have. Is a very exciting prospect - regardless of draft position.
 

scoman

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One of the things I remember about Rayner's draft year was just how terrible his 3km time trial was. I think it was 13 minutes or more. At the time that was a massive red flag for me. Its understandable that it has taken him so long to get into the physical condition required to have high impact 20+ possession games.
 

Nunez

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One of the things I remember about Rayner's draft year was just how terrible his 3km time trial was. I think it was 13 minutes or more. At the time that was a massive red flag for me. Its understandable that it has taken him so long to get into the physical condition required to have high impact 20+ possession games.

And now he's had at least 20 in every game he's spent proper midfield time. Given we're a low posession team, that is a really good indication he's finding the ball consistently when given the opportunity. Who knows how good this year will end up, but if he can stay injury free and have a full pre season in 2023 he will take another big step forward.
 

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Lionheart182

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I’m scratching my head here, due to this pumping of Rayners tyres.

The way I look at him, he is a player who was in the middle lane of a 100 metres race ( favourite ), doesn’t get in the qualifying positions, so is sent to the repercharge heats. Runs in the repercharge heats, and qualifies to come back into the semi finals. Does well and qualifies for the final in lane 8.

Put simply, he was a number 1 pick, showed so so form and then had a major injury. Before injury he was playing like a pick 20+ player. He has now resurrected his career, and is now back to being rated in the top 15 of his draft.

If he’d been drafted at pick 19, people would be saying that he was a good pick and had some more upside. Being drafted at pick 1, people have expected a lot more from him.

Great that he is playing well, but still a long way to go before he should be in the discussion of top 10 midfielders.
That's really more of a you thing if you always expect the number one pick to be the best player in the draft or to be dominating games from day one. It actually hardly ever happens.
 

Kapow!!!

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That's really more of a you thing if you always expect the number one pick to be the best player in the draft or to be dominating games from day one. It actually hardly ever happens.
In fairness, Rayner when he impacts the game he genuinely swings the momentum of it. Breaks tackles, creates space, hits targets (mostly). Given his layoff and history his fitness level is quite understandable but it's now the only thing keeping from moving into the elite tier as he is starting to play to his potential. Exciting to watch
 

Lionheart182

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In fairness, Rayner when he impacts the game he genuinely swings the momentum of it. Breaks tackles, creates space, hits targets (mostly). Given his layoff and history his fitness level is quite understandable but it's now the only thing keeping from moving into the elite tier as he is starting to play to his potential. Exciting to watch
Absolutely. Plenty of time to move into the elite category yet.
 

00Stinger

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Fritsch at 4 and Spargo ahead of Rayner?

The fella has clearly lost the plot, no point arguing with him 😂
Fritsch is on track to have back to back 50 goal seasons (something none of your forwards has accomplished), was in the AA squad last year and booted 6 goals in the GF (most by a player since 1997). Having him at 4 on current exposed form is far from absurd, probably spot on

Spargo ahead of Rayner is pretty laughable though
 

Nunez

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Fritsch is on track to have back to back 50 goal seasons (something none of your forwards has accomplished), was in the AA squad last year and booted 6 goals in the GF (most by a player since 1997). Having him at 4 on current exposed form is far from absurd, probably spot on

Spargo ahead of Rayner is pretty laughable though

Agreed. Fritsch is absolutely ahead of Rayner at this stage. Spargo tho lol
 

Lionheart182

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Fritsch is on track to have back to back 50 goal seasons (something none of your forwards has accomplished), was in the AA squad last year and booted 6 goals in the GF (most by a player since 1997). Having him at 4 on current exposed form is far from absurd, probably spot on

Spargo ahead of Rayner is pretty laughable though
Charlie Cameron kicked 55 last year and has 30 so far this year. So will also likely have back to back 50 goal seasons, injury permitting.
 

scott_the_man

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Fritsch is on track to have back to back 50 goal seasons (something none of your forwards has accomplished), was in the AA squad last year and booted 6 goals in the GF (most by a player since 1997). Having him at 4 on current exposed form is far from absurd, probably spot on

Spargo ahead of Rayner is pretty laughable though
If the draft was redone I doubt any club would take Fritsch at 4. There's a hand full of players who are better than him.
Fritsch is 3 years older than his draft class and has the benefit of being on the receiving end of a great midfield. His goal tally is not a true reflection on his value.
 

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00Stinger

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Charlie Cameron kicked 55 last year and has 30 so far this year. So will also likely have back to back 50 goal seasons, injury permitting.
Yep missed that one

My point still stands though that players who can kick back to bag 50 goals a year are far and few in between
 

Meteoric Rise

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Fritsch is on track to have back to back 50 goal seasons (something none of your forwards has accomplished), was in the AA squad last year and booted 6 goals in the GF (most by a player since 1997). Having him at 4 on current exposed form is far from absurd, probably spot on

Spargo ahead of Rayner is pretty laughable though

I think people are making the error with Fritsch of just looking at his goal tally and from that inferring he is as valuable as other players scoring similar amounts of goals. But he isn’t. Compared to the others he is winning less possessions, less contests, and he basically does none of the work key forwards do in bringing aerial balls to ground, which goes to make up a significant part of the key forward’s value.

Fritsch has a specific role which he plays very well. He gets on the end of his team’s good work up field and turns it into goals. But that is it for him, you get nothing else of significance.

He is also 3 years older than most of his draft class. So rating him at pick 4 in the 2017 draft class is way wrong imo. There is no way if they spilled that draft now that he would be in the top 4 picked. His 12th in the Demons 2021 B & F gives a much better indication of where his value sits. He is a 7-12 ranked player for a strong club. I think this would equate to about the value of pick 10 to capture all of his prime years. But as of this year he will have spent two of his prime years, while the bulk of his draft class haven’t even entered their prime yet and are a year or two off it.

Fritsch actually belongs to the 2014 draft class. From that draft Petracca, DeGoey, Darcy Moore, Lever, Heeney, Steele, Touk Miller, Bailey Dale, Harris Andrews, Jayden Short, would be considered greater or equal value players compared to Fritsch right now. His own club rated him behind Neal-Bullen and Ed Langdon in the B & F in 2021. And players like Angus Brayshaw, Paddy McCartin, Peter Wright, Brayden Maynard, Caleb Daniel, you could debate against Fritsch for current value. So if you were kind to Fritsch you might say he was worth pick 10 in that draft, a less kind reading has him around pick 15. And that is where I think he will be shown to sit in the 2017 draft class once the whole group has entered its prime in 2 years time. Excellent for a pick 31 as Fritsch was. Poor value for a pick 4 as danster has him.

From the 2017 draft class players like Naughton and Andrew Brayshaw are already clearly more valuable than Fritsch. Within 2 years you would expect a host of other players to overtake Fritsch. Rayner, Bailey, Cerra, Hunter Clark, Uniacke, Balta, Allen, Taylor, Tom McCartin, Richards, Tom de Koning and probably some others should become the equal or better than Fritsch in that time. There is no realistic chance he was worth pick 4 in that 2017 draft. He is like a clubhouse leader in golf where 15 players left on the course are tracking to finish on a lower score.
 

Toffee Lion

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Fritsch has a specific role which he plays very well. He gets on the end of his team’s good work up field and turns it into goals. But that is it for him, you get nothing else of significance.
This is modern footy though. You hear it all the time, playing your role etc.

Rayner's role is to impact the congestion, throw his body around, crash packs etc. Which I genuinely believe he has done an amazing job at doing the last few weeks and is starting to find form in that role.

As he gets a bit older and more mature, he'll be in a position to expand on that role. That may include pushing forward more to get more score involvements (Which is sort of what he is trying to do at the moment) or turn his congestion aggression into possession accumulating stats. Which with Lachie Neale, we don't need that right now.

I don't know why Fritsch is even in this thread. He plays an entirely different role to Rayner and Fritsch does that role really well. I rate him but there's zero comparison to Rayner. I guess you could argue would you rather Fritsch in his role or Rayner in his role and I think the answer is Fritsch, but the Lions already have our Fritsch in Charlie Cameron.

FWIW this post was not directed at you Meteoric, just using your post as an add-on.
 

Meteoric Rise

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This is modern footy though. You hear it all the time, playing your role etc.

Rayner's role is to impact the congestion, throw his body around, crash packs etc. Which I genuinely believe he has done an amazing job at doing the last few weeks and is starting to find form in that role.

As he gets a bit older and more mature, he'll be in a position to expand on that role. That may include pushing forward more to get more score involvements (Which is sort of what he is trying to do at the moment) or turn his congestion aggression into possession accumulating stats. Which with Lachie Neale, we don't need that right now.

I don't know why Fritsch is even in this thread. He plays an entirely different role to Rayner and Fritsch does that role really well. I rate him but there's zero comparison to Rayner. I guess you could argue would you rather Fritsch in his role or Rayner in his role and I think the answer is Fritsch, but the Lions already have our Fritsch in Charlie Cameron.

FWIW this post was not directed at you Meteoric, just using your post as an add-on.

Agree, there is nothing wrong at all with what Fritsch is doing. It doesn’t make him worth pick 4 though, which is what I was responding to.
 

a mayes ing

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I have brought up Petracca's stats here, this is the role that Rayner would hope to emulate in starting from the forward line and moving to the middle, however l doubt he would get to Petracca's level.
Christian Petracca: disposals average Cam Rayner
2016: 17.41 -
2017: 18.82 -
2018: 20.25 13.50
2019: 18.68 9.54
2020: 23.53 9.82
2021: 29.20 ACL
2022: 28.17 15.67

Petracca has definitly been able to find the ball more but he really seemed to break out into the top echelon on players after 5/6 seasons. Clear to see that Rayner's endurance levels were shocking in his first 3 seasons. This is Rayner's 4th season, and one that is coming after an ACL which normally takes a season to get full confidence back into the knee. I would say to wait until his 6th season before seeing if he is going to be a really good player. He doesn't need to get to Petracca's level, but if he can average low to mid 20's and 1-2 goals per game, while having that big bodies impact, then that will be a fantastic get.
 
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scott_the_man

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This is modern footy though. You hear it all the time, playing your role etc.

Rayner's role is to impact the congestion, throw his body around, crash packs etc. Which I genuinely believe he has done an amazing job at doing the last few weeks and is starting to find form in that role.

As he gets a bit older and more mature, he'll be in a position to expand on that role. That may include pushing forward more to get more score involvements (Which is sort of what he is trying to do at the moment) or turn his congestion aggression into possession accumulating stats. Which with Lachie Neale, we don't need that right now.

I don't know why Fritsch is even in this thread. He plays an entirely different role to Rayner and Fritsch does that role really well. I rate him but there's zero comparison to Rayner. I guess you could argue would you rather Fritsch in his role or Rayner in his role and I think the answer is Fritsch, but the Lions already have our Fritsch in Charlie Cameron.

FWIW this post was not directed at you Meteoric, just using your post as an add-on.

Agreed. Fritsch is absolutely ahead of Rayner at this stage. Spargo tho lol
No one was comparing Fritsch to Rayner guys.
 

00Stinger

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I have brought up Petracca's stats here, this is the role that Rayner would hope to emulate in starting from the forward line and moving to the middle, however l doubt he would get to Petracca's level.
Christian Petracca: disposals average Cam Rayner
2016: 17.41 -
2017: 18.82 -
2018: 20.25 13.50
2019: 18.68 9.54
2020: 23.53 9.82
2021: 29.20 ACL
2022: 28.17 15.67

Petracca has definitly been able to find the ball more but he really seemed to break out into the top echelon on players after 5/6 seasons. This is Rayner's 4th season, and one that is coming after an ACL which normally takes a season to get full confidence back into the knee. I would say to wait until his 6th season before seeing if he is going to be a really good player. He doesn't need to get to Petracca's level, but if he can average low to mid 20's and 1-2 goals per game, while having that big bodies impact, then that will be a fantastic get.
Petracca missed a year with an ACL too
 

Nunez

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Did some great things offensively which his teammates couldn't finish off, but most impressive was his tackling pressure. Finished with 8 tackles. Didn't attend many bounces which was a shame, but had a strong HFF game.
 

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