Cam Rayner

[danster168]

Petracca is probably the best player in the sport at the peak of his powers dumpster168. You had Rayner rated way below Charlie Spargoalless in the 2017 draft. That looks incredibly wrong now. Not just above him, 11 places above him.

why? because rayner had a whopping 12 possessions with more midfield time than Spargo who got 10?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

why? because rayner had a whopping 12 possessions with more midfield time than Spargo who got 10?

You don’t seem to measure impact the same way the rest of us do dumpster168. Did you actually watch the game? Why do you think the comms are constantly making favourable mentions of Rayner?

 

[danster168]

You don’t seem to measure impact the same way the rest of us do dumpster168. Did you actually watch the game? Why do you think the comms are constantly making favourable mentions of Rayner?

yeah, both spargo and rayner were useless in that game. You set the bar super low. The missed goal by Rayner was a massive miss.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

yeah, both spargo and rayner were useless in that game. You set the bar super low. The missed goal by Rayner was a massive miss.

How about the miss by Charlie Spraygo from about the same position? Big difference is one has massive presence in contests, the other waits for the ball to be popped over the top to him on a platter.

 

[bungalow_bill]

he applies defensive pressure, something Rayner can't do.

 

[augie]

Fox just dedicated a bit of discussion to how crucial Cam Rayner was in the final result.

His desperate fist to stop what looked like a Melbourne procession to goal. Then his brilliant knock on to Hipwood.

Gun.

Gun? FMD. He was largely invisible, as he has been for most of his games to date.

He is someone who looks like he could be a gun, but at this stage doesn't do anywhere near enough to be one.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Gun? FMD. He was largely invisible, as he has been for most of his games to date.

He is someone who looks like he could be a gun, but at this stage doesn't do anywhere near enough to be one.

What pick is he worth in a trade right now that in your opinion is reflective of his future value?

 

[augie]

What pick is he worth in a trade right now that in your opinion is reflective of his future value?

Really tough question. An optimistic view of his future would have him a late first round. A more realistic is probably mid second.

 

[E Shed]

Not in the same universe as Naughton or Brayshaw. Doubt you’d take him before Cerra or LDU.
Still, has shown consistent improvement & looks capable of being a better than average AFL level player. Could be one of those types who really blooms in his middle to late 20’s.
Plenty worse in that top 20 of 2017.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Really tough question. An optimistic view of his future would have him a late first round. A more realistic is probably mid second.

Let’s bookmark that then and we can come back and revisit. danster168 said pick 30. I said pick 9. You say approx pick 16-28 range.

Do you think his value has increased or decreased this season, or stayed around a similar level?

 

[Checkered]

Oh boy Spargo with absolutely no impact apart from the 4 frees against. Say what you want about Rayner but I don’t think he’s ever played that badly.

Maybe factor that one in to the redraft list next time Dan the man

 

[danster168]

Let’s bookmark that then and we can come back and revisit. danster168 said pick 30. I said pick 9. You say approx pick 16-28 range.

Do you think his value has increased or decreased this season, or stayed around a similar level?

seems like other people are closer to me than you. I'm happy to continually revisit but you realise that as each season goes by it's Rayner's total value from the day he was drafted that we are looking at, not what he is worth at any current time. So if he does nothing for the next 5 years and then has a great season at age 27/28, we are judging his total value from when he is 18 years old.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

seems like other people are closer to me than you. I'm happy to continually revisit but you realise that as each season goes by it's Rayner's total value from the day he was drafted that we are looking at, not what he is worth at any current time. So if he does nothing for the next 5 years and then has a great season at age 27/28, we are judging his total value from when he is 18 years old.

Drafting does not work like that Dan. Otherwise we would just ask for a list of who had played best from 2018 to rd 4 2022.

So you need to live or die according to how your ratings stand up from the moment you make them onwards. I already have one horrendously wrong, Darcy Fogarty I said wasn’t worth a pick inside 50 has already clearly proven that wrong. You have about 10 shocking errors and omissions from what I can see.

 

[danster168]

Drafting does not work like that Dan. Otherwise we would just ask for a list of who had played best from 2018 to rd 4 2022.

So you need to live or die according to how your ratings stand up from the moment you make them onwards. I already have one horrendously wrong, Darcy Fogarty I said wasn’t worth a pick inside 50 has already clearly proven that wrong. You have about 10 shocking errors and omissions from what I can see.

what are you talking about? that's always what we agreed upon... Otherwise you're just saying 'who has the highest ceiling in the draft'. Because a player who is a good average afl player for 10 years is much better than a player who is terrible for 9 years and has 1 breakout season. That's literally been what I've been saying since day 1. The longer it takes for Rayner to break out the better he needs to play when/if he breaks out to justify going higher in his draft year.

 

[iBeng]

seems like other people are closer to me than you. I'm happy to continually revisit but you realise that as each season goes by it's Rayner's total value from the day he was drafted that we are looking at, not what he is worth at any current time. So if he does nothing for the next 5 years and then has a great season at age 27/28, we are judging his total value from when he is 18 years old.

Man, Dane Swan must have been right shit then.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

what are you talking about? that's always what we agreed upon... Otherwise you're just saying 'who has the highest ceiling in the draft'. Because a player who is a good average afl player for 10 years is much better than a player who is terrible for 9 years and has 1 breakout season. That's literally been what I've been saying since day 1. The longer it takes for Rayner to break out the better he needs to play when/if he breaks out to justify going higher in his draft year.

Where did I ever even hint on agreeing to that? I gave my criteria clearly. Current trade value as at close of business 2022.

All these players will ultimately be judged 90% on what they achieve between the ages of about 23 and 30, in their prime. Given most have only just started getting past 23, for the majority of the draft class we are judging them on what they achieve from 2023 onwards. Just because you were fooled by several of the mature age 2017 draftees because they were more developed than the ones drafted at 18yo, it doesn’t mean the rest of us were.

You had mature guys as 5 of your 17 top picks. This is going to be shown to be very very wrong once all is said and done dan.

 

[Elixuh]

Lol Melbourne board posters have ejected Danster tonight, tells you all you need to know.

Onya Cam!

 

[danster168]

Where did I ever even hint on agreeing to that? I gave my criteria clearly. Current trade value as at close of business 2022.

All these players will ultimately be judged 90% on what they achieve between the ages of about 23 and 30, in their prime. Given most have only just started getting past 23, for the majority of the draft class we are judging them on what they achieve from 2023 onwards. Just because you were fooled by several of the mature age 2017 draftees because they were more developed than the ones drafted at 18yo, it doesn’t mean the rest of us were.

You had mature guys as 5 of your 17 top picks. This is going to be shown to be very very wrong once all is said and done dan.

That's ridiculous. the argument was always, where should Rayner have gone in the draft. Not, current value. That's beyond silly. So what you're saying is, that Rayner potentially could've been the 40th best player in his draft but be worth the most at any given point in time. Wow! doesn't that just suit a narrative. Well that means Fritsch has already beaten Rayner because he made the AA squad.

 

[danster168]

Lol Melbourne board posters have ejected Danster tonight, tells you all you need to know.

Onya Cam!

what are you talking about? If anything, they're acknowledging that I forecasted everything how it fell...?

 

[Elixuh]

what are you talking about? If anything, they're acknowledging that I forecasted everything how it fell...?

Yeah bro they all love you

 

[royboy2]

That's ridiculous. the argument was always, where should Rayner have gone in the draft. Not, current value. That's beyond silly. So what you're saying is, that Rayner potentially could've been the 40th best player in his draft but be worth the most at any given point in time. Wow! doesn't that just suit a narrative. Well that means Fritsch has already beaten Rayner because he made the AA squad.

Good old Av-Fritsch biggest downhill skier in the comp

 

[danster168]

Good old Av-Fritsch biggest downhill skier in the comp

lol. yeah because 6 goals in a granny, with many of them when we needed them, is downhill? laughable.

look, Brisbane had a good win tonight and they delayed their season 1 more week but to suggest Fritsch is a downhill skier is literally the opposite of what he is.

 

[Elixuh]

lol. yeah because 6 goals in a granny, with many of them when we needed them, is downhill? laughable.

look, Brisbane had a good win tonight and they delayed their season 1 more week but to suggest Fritsch is a downhill skier is literally the opposite of what he is.

 

[danster168]

View attachment 1504384

had to go pretty far back in the archives to find this one. definitely not from tonight.

Cool you beat us with some questionable umpiring decisions and half our list injured. Nice one. I don't even get the Lever decision at the end. What was the decision called for?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That's ridiculous. the argument was always, where should Rayner have gone in the draft. Not, current value. That's beyond silly. So what you're saying is, that Rayner potentially could've been the 40th best player in his draft but be worth the most at any given point in time. Wow! doesn't that just suit a narrative. Well that means Fritsch has already beaten Rayner because he made the AA squad.

If all these players went on the open market right now, Cam Rayner would be valued a lot higher than 28th. More like about 10th I would think, at worst. If you put Cam Rayner in some of the roles those other players you listed play, half back for example, he would look a lot better than he does at present.

From that list, 22yo Rayner would have a higher trade value than:

25yo 188cm hybrid forward Bailey Fritsch.

192cm Key Forward Oscar Allen.

Rising 28yo Tim Kelly.

IMO. And it is yet to be determined where Rayner’s value ultimately sits in relation to the rest of that list, but I accept that right now probably all of those others would fetch a higher price on the market.

These are from my first two posts on the thread. It would have been clear from the outset I was talking about rating current trade value, and I even later took you to task for rating the players’ value based on what they had achieved so far.

You were invited to rate the players based on current value. If you didn’t understand that then it wasn’t because it wasn’t made clear to you. Regardless, there is nothing Rayner has done or failed to do so far that will have a big bearing on who is seen to have had the better career overall once all their careers have ended. He is tracking well, especially for a player who did an ACL wiping out his 4th year and no doubt affecting his 5th year.