Cam Rayner

[Meteoric Rise]

God I hope I never go to planet Dan what a horrible place that would be.

Nice enough place to be for anyone who is wrong all the time.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Nah I'm acknowledging that he played well. How could I not. But playing well in a finals game doesn't supersede a pretty horrific season. The measure is a very high measure but that's a measure that I believe is a true measure to cater for the poor career he's had to date. The guy is almost 24 years old. He's at the peak of his career and here we are celebrating 1 good game since round 4. This year he had 0 injury excuses. Zero. Last season was the last season where people could run with the injury excuse.

He needs to play like this every 2nd week if he's going to turn his career around. If Brisbane fans can't acknowledge the games where he has 0 influence on the game and can't find the ball then why would their opinion carry weight now. I challenge anyone to crunch through Rayner's season round by round and divide it into 'Very Poor, Poor, Average, Good, Very Good' and then talk to me. Otherwise, it's all just recency bias and Ollie Lord is better than Warren Tredrea.

Time to admit defeat danster. Rayner has just torn a big final apart, and your avatar Van Rooyen just got a negative player rating, no scores and no score involvements in another big final. Spargo can't even get a game and Rayner has just played a higher rated final than any Fritsch has ever played.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Rohan has never played a game like that in his career

The original comment was he is closer to Rohan than he is a 5x AA type player.

it is really not that deep, I never said Rohan was better or he is exactly like Rohan. Just trying to bring the thread back to earth a little because comments like the one I was replying to were way over the top.

 

[danster168]

Time to admit defeat danster. Rayner has just torn a big final apart, and your avatar Van Rooyen just got a negative player rating, no scores and no score involvements in another big final. Spargo can't even get a game and Rayner has just played a higher rated final than any Fritsch has ever played.

lol, funny how low the bar is for Rayner. 16 touches and 3 goals in a landslide victory is 'tearing a big final apart'. A shame we had to wait since round 4 for him to actually do something. When will be the next time Rayner does something? Round 13, 2024?

 

[danster168]

I’m just giving a little perspective for a few getting high on the weekend.
Cam averages in 7 finals
10d 1g 1cl 2t

Nah nah, that's not how it works. What happens is, we sit quiet on Rayner, disregard months and months of poor performances and eventually when he does play a decent game we'll come out and pretend that the last game is the norm.

 

[bzparkes]

Rohan had 14 disposals and 3 goals in last years QF.
He was sensational and the mark and goal he took at the 24th minute mark of the final quarter was epic.

Better performance than Rayner's on the weekend.

How old is Rohan?

 

[Elixuh]

Time to admit defeat danster. Rayner has just torn a big final apart, and your avatar Van Rooyen just got a negative player rating, no scores and no score involvements in another big final. Spargo can't even get a game and Rayner has just played a higher rated final than any Fritsch has ever played.

Spargo can't get a game in a team with no forward line, really concerning.

 

[Miller1971]

new to this thread.

Rayner has enormous upside, his influence on the game on the weekend can't be measured on the stat sheet, he was Top 2-3 on the ground, probably best for me.

However, now readin through all the waffle - this Dan guy is 100% correct that he plays games like that far too infrequently given the talent he has at his disposal and it should be a more regular occurence, not an outlier.

If Jordan De Goey

2

Jordan De Goey

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.7

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

3.1

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

15.8

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

2.3

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

for example was as poor as Rayner for as long, he would be getting ripped to shreds. Both of them are guys built for finals, but De Goey has much better consistency during the H&A season, and did far more at the same age also. (no ACL trouble though)

Long story short.

Rayner is a gun who is capable of far more than he currently gives on a week to week basis.

 

[Happy_Neale]

new to this thread.

Rayner has enormous upside, his influence on the game on the weekend can't be measured on the stat sheet, he was Top 2-3 on the ground, probably best for me.

However, now readin through all the waffle - this Dan guy is 100% correct that he plays games like that far too infrequently given the talent he has at his disposal and it should be a more regular occurence, not an outlier.

If Jordan De Goey for example was as poor as Rayner for as long, he would be getting ripped to shreds. Both of them are guys built for finals, but De Goey has much better consistency during the H&A season, and did far more at the same age also. (no ACL trouble though)

Long story short.

Rayner is a gun who is capable of far more than he currently gives on a week to week basis.

Same age comparison for Rayner and De Goey:



Better across the board at the same age basically. I don’t remember De Goey being ‘ripped to shreds’ either.

Would love to hear Dansters thoughts on how many goals De Goey would have to kick in a final to make up for his number 5 draft pick tag back in 2020. I’m guessing 7 a game or so.

 

[Miller1971]

Same age comparison for Rayner and De Goey:

View attachment 1800702

Better across the board at the same age basically. I don’t remember De Goey being ‘ripped to shreds’ either.

Would love to hear Dansters thoughts on how many goals De Goey would have to kick in a final to make up for his number 5 draft pick tag back in 2020. I’m guessing 7 a game or so.

you realise 2020 had games that were 25% shorter, less games and people were in bubbles (except Rayner, who got to live at home and play all his games at home) - thats a pretty dumb comparison, pretty sure De Goey also tore a tendon or something in 2020 which kept him out for half the year.

I am just using De Goey as an example - I got no dog in the fight, just decided to compare to De Goey given early draft pick and inability to play to their expected level for long periods.

De Goey kicked 48 goals in his 4th season, including 3 in a Grand Final and 12 in a finals series. His issues were largely self inflicted dumb shit.

 

[Hoops]

Is Stringer a better comparison?

 

[Elixuh]

Is Stringer a better comparison?

Don't do it bro. No one wants to be compared to the package. I'd prefer Danster's spargo comparison.

 

[Milux]

Where were Brisbane fans from Rounds 4 til round 24? He's had a shocking season. Yet another season of wasted potential. Brisbane fans had a chance to stick up for their boy from rounds 4-24 but were nowhere to be seen. He finally plays a decent game but it's a bit late to be trying to jump on him now. The damage has been done.

To be fair. I have been here a fair bit. Agreed with some of the points you made. But you seem to lack understanding. He is 23. Done a knee early. This is his second?? Year back after. Hasn't played horribly without being amazing.

Rayner seems primed to take on this finals series. Even if he doesn't. It won't be the end of him. He has a bright future ahead.

 

[Elixuh]

To be fair. I have been here a fair bit. Agreed with some of the points you made. But you seem to lack understanding. He is 23. Done a knee early. This is his second?? Year back after. Hasn't played horribly without being amazing.

Rayner seems primed to take on this finals series. Even if he doesn't. It won't be the end of him. He has a bright future ahead.

You haven't been here long enough if you're trying to reason with Danny

 

[Tom14]

new to this thread.

Rayner has enormous upside, his influence on the game on the weekend can't be measured on the stat sheet, he was Top 2-3 on the ground, probably best for me.

However, now readin through all the waffle - this Dan guy is 100% correct that he plays games like that far too infrequently given the talent he has at his disposal and it should be a more regular occurence, not an outlier.

If Jordan De Goey for example was as poor as Rayner for as long, he would be getting ripped to shreds. Both of them are guys built for finals, but De Goey has much better consistency during the H&A season, and did far more at the same age also. (no ACL trouble though)

Long story short.

Rayner is a gun who is capable of far more than he currently gives on a week to week basis.

Fair few other troubles for ‘Jordy’ instead of an ACL I guess.

 

[augie]

Same age comparison for Rayner and De Goey:

View attachment 1800702

Better across the board at the same age basically. I don’t remember De Goey being ‘ripped to shreds’ either.

Would love to hear Dansters thoughts on how many goals De Goey would have to kick in a final to make up for his number 5 draft pick tag back in 2020. I’m guessing 7 a game or so.

Did well to pick a season where De Goey missed 9 games in a row and games were shortened. And De Goey earned his number 5 pick when he kicked 12 goals in the 2018 finals series, including 3 in the GF.

it is this type of cherry picking from both sides of the debate that devalues a legitimate discussion. There are understandable criticisms of Rayner. He goes missing a lot. On the plus side he is very powerful and talented and has the ability to swing a game. His reality is somewhere between the Pick 40 Dan thinks he is worth and the 4-5 time AA someone on here suggested. Lots of room between these two poles!

 

[danster168]

To be fair. I have been here a fair bit. Agreed with some of the points you made. But you seem to lack understanding. He is 23. Done a knee early. This is his second?? Year back after. Hasn't played horribly without being amazing.

Rayner seems primed to take on this finals series. Even if he doesn't. It won't be the end of him. He has a bright future ahead.

yeah he's 23, almost 24. I was promised a breakout season this season. Will anyone actually put their neck on the line and tell me what they think he will do next season? I will say 14-15 touches and 1 goal a game next season.

 

[Elixuh]

yeah he's 23, almost 24. I was promised a breakout season this season. Will anyone actually put their neck on the line and tell me what they think he will do next season? I will say 14-15 touches and 1 goal a game next season.

We need to define what a breakout season is for Cam, Danny. Can you go away and spend some time thinking about what this looks like and come back to us and present what you think a breakout season in 2024 looks like for Cam, then we can discuss in more depth. Don't rush, take your time. We want it to be thorough.

 

[scott_the_man]

Danster is one of those blokes that would argue the sky is red if you told him it's blue.

There's zero chance he will ever admit that he was wrong.

Makes good reading though

 

[Miller1971]

A breakout year would be to finish Top 5 in the Lions B&F next year, which he should be doing at 25 given his talent.

He will be lucky to be Top 10 this year, though his Qualifying final effort will see him poll bloody well!

 

[Milux]

yeah he's 23, almost 24. I was promised a breakout season this season. Will anyone actually put their neck on the line and tell me what they think he will do next season? I will say 14-15 touches and 1 goal a game next season.

I've always said I've wanted/expect more. Which is why in previous posts of mine in this thread I have agreed with you somewhat.

But right now at this stage the kid had 12 score involvements in a final. Kicked some massive goals of his own in crucial times. Who knows what he brings next year. But if he were to produce 2 more games like his last this season there is a fair chance he will be going into next year as a premiership player.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

lol, funny how low the bar is for Rayner. 16 touches and 3 goals in a landslide victory is 'tearing a big final apart'. A shame we had to wait since round 4 for him to actually do something. When will be the next time Rayner does something? Round 13, 2024?

If they were 16 Fritsch touches and 3 Fritsch goals then nobody would care Dan. But they weren't. They were 16 Dusty touches and 3 Dusty goals. So everybody rightly takes notice.

When you start submitting match shaping 18.7 rated games in big finals against top 4 teams for judgement, you are going to be judged kindly. Fritsch and Spargo who you rated way above Rayner in your re-ranking of the 2017 draft have never done that yet. And probably never will.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Rayner is great to watch but I’d rather Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

.
Taken by lions 14 picks later has had a better season and career.
AB taken 2nd got his jaw wired after a knock that sometimes change the path of a players career.
Came back bnf AA MVP 22u22 captain
AB had a down year this year playing injured early in a bottom 6 team yet still was better than Rayner @
Score inv
x3 tackles
X2 disposals
X3 clearance
+120mg
Same efficiency
Rayner is a good player but you wouldn’t take him with a top 3 pick

 

[rye]

Rayner is great to watch but I’d rather Zac Bailey.
Taken by lions 14 picks later has had a better season and career.

cutting out the fellating of brayshaw which has nothing to do with this statement that preceded it:

drafting Rayner, Bailey, Starcevich, Payne and trading for Charlie Cameron was one hell of a trade / draft period by brisbane that year. 5 of our current best 22 in one single offseason

 

[scott_the_man]

cutting out the fellating of brayshaw which has nothing to do with this statement that preceded it:

drafting Rayner, Bailey, Starcevich, Payne and trading for Charlie Cameron was one hell of a trade / draft period by brisbane that year. 5 of our current best 22 in one single offseason

All 5 are firmly entrenched in the 22 and very important players too. Exceptional recruiting.