Cam Rayner

[RonnieRaven]

cutting out the fellating of brayshaw which has nothing to do with this statement that preceded it:

drafting Rayner, Bailey, Starcevich, Payne and trading for Charlie Cameron was one hell of a trade / draft period by brisbane that year. 5 of our current best 22 in one single offseason

Great trade draft taking naughton or brayshaw instead of Rayner would give greater balance.

 

[danster168]

If they were 16 Fritsch touches and 3 Fritsch goals then nobody would care Dan. But they weren't. They were 16 Dusty touches and 3 Dusty goals. So everybody rightly takes notice.

When you start submitting match shaping 18.7 rated games in big finals against top 4 teams for judgement, you are going to be judged kindly. Fritsch and Spargo who you rated way above Rayner in your re-ranking of the 2017 draft have never done that yet. And probably never will.

I'm not denying he played a good game.

lol comparing Rayner to Fritsch.

 

[danster168]

We need to define what a breakout season is for Cam, Danny. Can you go away and spend some time thinking about what this looks like and come back to us and present what you think a breakout season in 2024 looks like for Cam, then we can discuss in more depth. Don't rush, take your time. We want it to be thorough.

he'll never break out. this is Rayner.14-15 touches a game, a few good games a year but more howlers than good games. A breakout would be AA squad. But that's never going to happen. But I think being a top 15 player in his draft in terms of total output provided from day of being drafted would be a good goal for him.

 

[danster168]

cutting out the fellating of brayshaw which has nothing to do with this statement that preceded it:

drafting Rayner, Bailey, Starcevich, Payne and trading for Charlie Cameron was one hell of a trade / draft period by brisbane that year. 5 of our current best 22 in one single offseason

Well you had pick 1 so of course. But that was a failed selection. He's been about the 30th best in the draft in terms of output provided. You could've had AA calibre players

 

[scott_the_man]

he'll never break out. this is Rayner.14-15 touches a game, a few good games a year but more howlers than good games. A breakout would be AA squad. But that's never going to happen. But I think being a top 15 player in his draft in terms of total output provided from day of being drafted would be a good goal for him.

Not sure why you keep using the 14-15 touches thing against Rayner.

He had about that many on the weekend, I guess he was no good then right?

 

[rye]

Well you had pick 1 so of course. But that was a failed selection. He's been about the 30th best in the draft in terms of output provided. You could've had AA calibre players

we traded pick 12 for a player who has gone on to be a 2x AA. im personally very happy with the players brisbane recruited in that trade and draft period.

 

[undefined]

Pointless discussion to have, but I think Brisbane would take Cam at 1st in a hindsight draft. Looking back, despite regular criticism it was a solid draft year - and obviously there are a bunch who've showed more than Cam so far in their short AFL careers.

Apart from Oscar Allen

4

Oscar Allen

Age

26

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

& Sam Taylor

15

Sam Taylor

Age

26

Ht

198cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.1

4star

MG

130.5

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.5

1star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.5

3star

MG

60.8

1star

D

8.6

3star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

2.8

5star

MG

110.8

2star

, in my opinion no one from the class of '17 has a higher ceiling.

I emphasise the custom tagline on my user profile when I say this, but only one of LDU/Brayshaw/Cerra/Naughton would be in my top 5. I'd take Allen, Taylor, and Rayner ahead of them. The other is Harrison Petty

35

Harrison Petty

Age

26

Ht

197cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

120.7

2star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

127.6

3star

. Flies under the radar like few I've seen but I sense he prefers it that way.

One more consideration is Rayner's off-field impact. He's very well liked amongst the players, coaching staff and the wider Lions administration. A terrific young man who contributes significantly to the club's excellent culture.

When you start submitting match shaping 18.7 rated games in big finals against top 4 teams for judgement, you are going to be judged kindly. Fritsch and Spargo who you rated way above Rayner in your re-ranking of the 2017 draft have never done that yet. And probably never will.

Is this going off the AFL Lab Player Impact ratings or another metric?

 

[danster168]

Not sure why you keep using the 14-15 touches thing against Rayner.

He had about that many on the weekend, I guess he was no good then right?

he converted so he was good. But if he kicked 0.3. Just an average game. But I place a big importance on finishing around goals.

 

[danster168]

Pointless discussion to have, but I think Brisbane would take Cam at 1st in a hindsight draft. Looking back, despite regular criticism it was a solid draft year - and obviously there are a bunch who've showed more than Cam so far in their short AFL careers.

Apart from Oscar Allen & Sam Taylor, in my opinion no one from the class of '17 has a higher ceiling.

I emphasise the custom tagline on my user profile when I say this, but only one of LDU/Brayshaw/Cerra/Naughton would be in my top 5. I'd take Allen, Taylor, and Rayner ahead of them. The other is Harrison Petty. Flies under the radar like few I've seen but I sense he prefers it that way.

One more consideration is Rayner's off-field impact. He's very well liked amongst the players, coaching staff and the wider Lions administration. A terrific young man who contributes significantly to the club's excellent culture.


Is this going off the AFL Lab Player Impact ratings or another metric?

He's about the 30th best in the draft. There's some guns in that draft. Tim Kelly, Fritsch, Sam Taylor, Brayshaw, LDU, Balta, Allen, Bailey, Cerra, Naughton, Dylan Moore, Baker etc. But there's a bunch of guys like Gryan Miers, who made the AA squad, Switkowski, Brent Daniels, Nathan Murphy, Petty, Richards, Worpel etc. who are all well ahead of him. You're not really looking at anything before 25th best in the draft before you even start comparing him to others that are in his tier. Guys like Ainsworth, Higgins, Coffield etc.

 

[undefined]

He's about the 30th best in the draft. There's some guns in that draft. Tim Kelly, Fritsch, Sam Taylor, Brayshaw, LDU, Balta, Allen, Bailey, Cerra, Naughton, Dylan Moore, Baker etc. But there's a bunch of guys like Gryan Miers, who made the AA squad, Switkowski, Brent Daniels, Nathan Murphy, Petty, Richards, Worpel etc. who are all well ahead of him. You're not really looking at anything before 25th best in the draft before you even start comparing him to others that are in his tier. Guys like Ainsworth, Higgins, Coffield etc.

Most clubs draft with a look to what heights a player can reach at their peak, not short-term impact. Relative to his draft year he'd be sitting on the fringe of first round or early 2nd, if we're speaking on the latter factor.

This is Cam's 5th season. Sure, he has been a slower burn but you're in denial if you don't see genuine A-grade potential in him.

As stated in my previous post, I'd consider Allen, Taylor and possibly Petty to have higher or comparable ceilings. That's all I'm considering at this stage. Not denying the capabilities of any you've listed there.

 

[danster168]

Most clubs draft with a look to what heights a player can reach at their peak, not short-term impact. Relative to his draft year he'd be sitting on the fringe of first round or early 2nd, if we're speaking on the latter factor.

This is Cam's 5th season. Sure, he has been a slower burn but you're in denial if you don't see genuine A-grade potential in him.

As stated in my previous post, I'd consider Allen, Taylor and possibly Petty to have higher or comparable ceilings. That's all I'm considering at this stage. Not denying the capabilities of any you've listed there.

I don't deny his potential. He looks great. but he's a Colin Sylvia clone. But Sylvia had done a truck load more at the same age. The ability to find the ball is hard to train. And he hasn't improved this since day 1. But he also hasn't shown any defensive ability.

 

[undefined]

I don't deny his potential. He looks great. but he's a Colin Sylvia clone. But Sylvia had done a truck load more at the same age. The ability to find the ball is hard to train. And he hasn't improved this since day 1. But he also hasn't shown any defensive ability.

I don't think his ball-finding ability is an issue. It's his tendency to drop in and out of games. Amidst a 5-10 minute burst (which is all he needs to disrupt the contest), he can accumulate like the typified modern day seagull half-back. And he only needs a dozen possessions to make a significant impact.

Having said that, and while I'm of the Belichick school of thought RE statistics, it'd be nice to see his avg. disposals bump up from 14-15 to 17-18+ if not in lieu of influence.

As mentioned quite frequently by other posters, a key attribute of Rayner's, particularly inside the f50, is his physical and vertical presence. You're getting half the picture by focusing on the stat sheet; the work he does off the ball is elite.

 

[Dazb86]

He's still a bit behind Richards

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Did well to pick a season where De Goey missed 9 games in a row and games were shortened. And De Goey earned his number 5 pick when he kicked 12 goals in the 2018 finals series, including 3 in the GF.

it is this type of cherry picking from both sides of the debate that devalues a legitimate discussion. There are understandable criticisms of Rayner. He goes missing a lot. On the plus side he is very powerful and talented and has the ability to swing a game. His reality is somewhere between the Pick 40 Dan thinks he is worth and the 4-5 time AA someone on here suggested. Lots of room between these two poles!

DeGoey is one of those players Rayner should be compared with. He plays a similar(but not exactly the same) role at the same stage of his life cycle in the AFL. They share similar size and some similar attributes.

DeGoey took until his 8th year after being drafted - 2022 - to record a higher finals player rating than Rayner has just turned in(18.7.) When DeGoey did it he played 2 brilliant finals that were right up there, 28.7 v eventual premier Geelong and 23.8 v Freo.

Rayner has plenty to prove yet. He may get stronger direct opponents in coming finals. I think there are other guys this size who can take leaping pack marks like Rayner, or who have equal or better disposal skills, or greater nous in positioning. But Rayner has the invaluable pack busting ability that others just don't possess to anywhere near the degree. He is a huge threat in all contested situations, and clubs would kill for hybrid sized forwards with that ability, especially in finals.

 

[My Tilly]

DeGoey is one of those players Rayner should be compared with. He plays a similar(but not exactly the same) role at the same stage of his life cycle in the AFL. They share similar size and some similar attributes.

DeGoey took until his 8th year after being drafted - 2022 - to record a higher finals player rating than Rayner has just turned in(18.7.) When DeGoey did it he played 2 brilliant finals that were right up there, 28.7 v eventual premier Geelong and 23.8 v Freo.

Rayner has plenty to prove yet. He may get stronger direct opponents in coming finals. I think there are other guys this size who can take leaping pack marks like Rayner, or who have equal or better disposal skills, or greater nous in positioning. But Rayner has the invaluable pack busting ability that others just don't possess to anywhere near the degree. He is a huge threat in all contested situations, and clubs would kill for hybrid sized forwards with that ability, especially in finals.

lol one good final and he's now the player every team wants.
Just watch him do his magical disappearing act in 2 weeks time. Footballers like Rayner will never be consistent.

 

[CuttlefishMcfly]

He's still a bit behind Richards

Richards is playing a great finals series so far... Oh wait.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

lol one good final and he's now the player every team wants.
Just watch him do his magical disappearing act in 2 weeks time. Footballers like Rayner will never be consistent.

If it is his best final ever then fair enough. But I doubt it will be. It is his first final as a prime aged player, so as far as that sample goes he has had a huge impact in his only prime aged final so far. So the signs are good.

 

[My Tilly]

If it is his best final ever then fair enough. But I doubt it will be. It is his first final as a prime aged player, so as far as that sample goes he has had a huge impact in his only prime aged final so far. So the signs are good.

Charlie Cameron will be the player who steps it up in the PF. He was pretty poor on the weekend but he's arguably their best finals performer and you just know he has one of those 5 goal performances up his sleeve.

 

[rye]

Charlie Cameron will be the player who steps it up in the PF. He was pretty poor on the weekend but he's arguably their best finals performer and you just know he has one of those 5 goal performances up his sleeve.

harsh on cameron

2 goals is fine for a small forward in a final but what was most pleasing was his defensive workrate. seen multiple times in brisbanes d50 to help out with team defence and at least two tackles resulting in htb iirc. he took jhf getting out of his first tackle personally because the way he attacked him in tackles after that was like a man possessed. should have received a few holding frees which would have helped boost his goal tally but for whatever reason cameron does not get the curnow treatment

 

[danster168]

I don't think his ball-finding ability is an issue. It's his tendency to drop in and out of games. Amidst a 5-10 minute burst (which is all he needs to disrupt the contest), he can accumulate like the typified modern day seagull half-back. And he only needs a dozen possessions to make a significant impact.

Having said that, and while I'm of the Belichick school of thought RE statistics, it'd be nice to see his avg. disposals bump up from 14-15 to 17-18+ if not in lieu of influence.

As mentioned quite frequently by other posters, a key attribute of Rayner's, particularly inside the f50, is his physical and vertical presence. You're getting half the picture by focusing on the stat sheet; the work he does off the ball is elite.

I agree you with you. But he was trialled at half back and he still couldn't find the ball.

 

[Elixuh]

he'll never break out. this is Rayner.14-15 touches a game, a few good games a year but more howlers than good games. A breakout would be AA squad. But that's never going to happen. But I think being a top 15 player in his draft in terms of total output provided from day of being drafted would be a good goal for him.

Can we discount his ACL year though Danny? It'd be like me assessing Oliver on this year when he spent a large portion of it out on a strike ban.

 

[danster168]

Can we discount his ACL year though Danny? It'd be like me assessing Oliver on this year when he spent a large portion of it out on a strike ban.

Oliver's been a beast this year in the games he's played.

I dont even discount Rayners season last season. But Brisbane fans wanted to discount the season because he was poor.

 

[Elixuh]

Oliver's been a beast this year in the games he's played.

I only assess based on 20+ game seasons sorry Danny. Hopefully no strikes for Oliver next year.

 

[danster168]

I only assess based on 20+ game seasons sorry Danny. Hopefully no strikes for Oliver next year.

cool. so he's the best mid in the game then according to the coaches. So what's one of the goats got to do with Rayner?

 

[Elixuh]

cool. so he's the best mid in the game then according to the coaches. So what's one of the goats got to do with Rayner?

I was just raising the issue of assessing based on substantially incomplete season, eg Cam with his ACL and Oliver with his strike bans.