Cam Rayner

[RonnieRaven]

Pick 1 vs pick 2 on the weekend
Brayshaw doubled Cam in
Possesions
Metres gained
Centre clearances
Ground ball gets
I50s
And nearly doubled him in
Score inv
Defence half pressure acts
Contested possesions
That’s the potential Rayner has if he had a mind and ticker like AB

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Pick 1 vs pick 2 on the weekend
Brayshaw doubled Cam in
Possesions
Metres gained
Centre clearances
Ground ball gets
I50s
And nearly doubled him in
Score inv
Defence half pressure acts
Contested possesions
That’s the potential Rayner has if he had a mind and ticker like AB

Rayner a lot more talented, but far lazier.

Shows hard work will always beat natural talent

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I admire your persistence meteoric. At least I conceded I got Spargo wrong

Now you just have to admit you got 5th B & F in a Grand Final team Cam Rayner wrong Danski.

 

[danster168]

Now you just have to admit you got 5th B & F in a Grand Final team Cam Rayner wrong Danski.

I want your Rayner draft order re-done. the top 20 minimum.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I want your Rayner draft order re-done. the top 20 minimum.

I think we can agree he is tracking below expectations for a successful pick one. He is comfortably better than your pick 30. 5th B & F in a GF team means his club is happy with what he is doing, not Petracca or Dusty happy, but Neal-Bullen or Liam Baker happy. That is worth more than your pick 30, less than my pick 10 at this point.

Let's see how his season unfolds as we get a bit deeper into it.

 

[danster168]

I think we can agree he is tracking below expectations for a successful pick one. He is comfortably better than your pick 30. 5th B & F in a GF team means his club is happy with what he is doing, not Petracca or Dusty happy, but Neal-Bullen or Liam Baker happy. That is worth more than your pick 30, less than my pick 10 at this point.

Let's see how his season unfolds as we get a bit deeper into it.

Let's do a refresher:
So the bottom 26 players are comfortably in front of Rayner.
Brayshaw
LDU
Cerra
Naughton
Fritsch
Zac Bailey
Tim Kelly
Noah Balta
Starcevich
Sam Taylor
Brent Daniels
Liam Ryan
Tom McCartin
Harrison Petty
Nathan Murphy
Gryan Miers
Dylan Moore
Xerri
Liam Baker
Mihocek
Switkowski
De Koning
Will Powell
Ed Richards
Oscar Allen
Amartey

So we can start the ranking debate at 27. The next tier down are: Holman, Rayner, Fogarty, Higgins, Ainsworth, Worpel.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Let's do a refresher:
So the bottom 26 players are comfortably in front of Rayner.
Brayshaw
LDU
Cerra
Naughton
Fritsch
Zac Bailey
Tim Kelly
Noah Balta
Starcevich
Sam Taylor
Brent Daniels
Liam Ryan
Tom McCartin
Harrison Petty
Nathan Murphy
Gryan Miers
Dylan Moore
Xerri
Liam Baker
Mihocek
Switkowski
De Koning
Will Powell
Ed Richards
Oscar Allen
Amartey

So we can start the ranking debate at 27. The next tier down are: Holman, Rayner, Fogarty, Higgins, Ainsworth, Worpel.

Lol. No they aren't.

I think good handful of the key position players are ahead of Rayner.

Naughton Balta Taylor McCartin Allen without hesitation. Mihocek is simply not good enough to be ahead of many of these players. His top 10 Copeland Trophy finishes are 2019 9th, 2020 8th, 2023 8th. He is a budget KPP. Amartey has only just become a first choice best 22 player. Petty needs more runs on the board, you could argue him at his best but he hasn't shown it for long enough to be elevating him too far at this stage. DeKoning looks to be on the rise but on the whole has done absolutely nothing of note so far. Xerri is an honest ruck but has barely played. Nathan Murphy please.

The guys who are entrenched quality inside mids Brayshaw, Uniacke, Cerra are more valuable than Rayner and Kelly has been. You have listed a whole lot of other players who play lesser value roles like Rayner, and to be honest some of them are doing it better than Rayner right now but overall he is a clear level below hardly any of them. All these guys including Rayner will go in and out of vogue according to form, fitness etc over time. There aren't too many award winners amongst them.

 

[danster168]

Lol. No they aren't.

I think good handful of the key position players are ahead of Rayner.

Naughton Balta Taylor McCartin Allen without hesitation. Mihocek is simply not good enough to be ahead of many of these players. His top 10 Copeland Trophy finishes are 2019 9th, 2020 8th, 2023 8th. He is a budget KPP. Amartey has only just become a first choice best 22 player. Petty needs more runs on the board, you could argue him at his best but he hasn't shown it for long enough to be elevating him too far at this stage. DeKoning looks to be on the rise but on the whole has done absolutely nothing of note so far. Xerri is an honest ruck but has barely played. Nathan Murphy please.

The guys who are entrenched quality inside mids Brayshaw, Uniacke, Cerra are more valuable than Rayner and Kelly has been. You have listed a whole lot of other players who play lesser value roles like Rayner, and to be honest some of them are doing it better than Rayner right now but overall he is a clear level below hardly any of them. All these guys including Rayner will go in and out of vogue according to form, fitness etc over time. There aren't too many award winners amongst them.

lol I know you're just too proud to put AA squad member Fritsch there so we can leave that one alone.

You know Adelaide are going to offer Petty 1m a season next year to go there. He is miles ahead of Rayner. He is literally our best forward and our best defender (outside May). No contest. The offer from Adelaide speaks for itself.

Mihocek has been a proven performer for years. Brent Daniels is turning into a star. Xerri is a solo ruck and probably a top 10 ruck in the league. Starcevic has been in an AA squad hasn't he?

You talk a lot on Rayners role? what role is that? be a poor afl player that performs once every 6 weeks? He isn't a midfielder, he isn't a defender, he isn't even a forward that hits the scoreboard or applies defensive pressure. So what is this role that you speak of? Because many Brisbane fans don't even think he is best 22 anymore.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

lol I know you're just too proud to put AA squad member Fritsch there so we can leave that one alone.

You know Adelaide are going to offer Petty 1m a season next year to go there. He is miles ahead of Rayner. He is literally our best forward and our best defender (outside May). No contest. The offer from Adelaide speaks for itself.

Mihocek has been a proven performer for years. Brent Daniels is turning into a star. Xerri is a solo ruck and probably a top 10 ruck in the league. Starcevic has been in an AA squad hasn't he?

You talk a lot on Rayners role? what role is that? be a poor afl player that performs once every 6 weeks? He isn't a midfielder, he isn't a defender, he isn't even a forward that hits the scoreboard or applies defensive pressure. So what is this role that you speak of? Because many Brisbane fans don't even think he is best 22 anymore.

Petty I agree the eye-watering offer would speak for itself. Let's see how that unfolds. Remember Adelaide have built a really tidy list and the last part they desperately require is a big bodied key position player, preferably who could play either end. So they are likely to offer overs to make that happen.

Have a look at Rayner's pressure acts, tackles, spoils and 1%ers this season. There is a huge spike. Now it is only 2 matches so could be an anomaly. Or it could be he is playing differently, in a way his team needs. I put little store in what Brisbane fans think about how he is going. I have witnessed Richmond fans bewildered as to why Maurice Rioli Jnr is more often being preferred to Noah Cumberland for example. The coaches pick players according to who makes the team work better, and those players therefore are automatically better players than the ones who don't make the team work better. Rayner's shock(to fans) 5th in the B & F last year speaks volumes about what his coaches think of how he is executing his role. At this point he is short of top class at it. But he brings plenty to the table that most players just cannot provide, so his value is more than is apparent from normal measures.

 

[danster168]

Petty I agree the eye-watering offer would speak for itself. Let's see how that unfolds. Remember Adelaide have built a really tidy list and the last part they desperately require is a big bodied key position player, preferably who could play either end. So they are likely to offer overs to make that happen.

Have a look at Rayner's pressure acts, tackles, spoils and 1%ers this season. There is a huge spike. Now it is only 2 matches so could be an anomaly. Or it could be he is playing differently, in a way his team needs. I put little store in what Brisbane fans think about how he is going. I have witnessed Richmond fans bewildered as to why Maurice Rioli Jnr is more often being preferred to Noah Cumberland for example. The coaches pick players according to who makes the team work better, and those players therefore are automatically better players than the ones who don't make the team work better. Rayner's shock(to fans) 5th in the B & F last year speaks volumes about what his coaches think of how he is executing his role. At this point he is short of top class at it. But he brings plenty to the table that most players just cannot provide, so his value is more than is apparent from normal measures.

BnF results can be totally misleading though. Especially with games missed . when Rayner finished 5th in the BnF no-one in their right mind would have him as the lions 5th best player. Maybe 12 or 13. I have him much lower. Hypothetically, if he's role is to lead up the ground and be a forward diversion to allow Daniher more space and Daniher kicks 10. Both have done their role and get votes. It's pretty flawed.
Like you said, it was a shock to fans. His career is at the crossroads. I was promised a breakout last season, it never arrived. 2 rounds in, he hasn't fired a shot.

 

[RonnieRaven]

BnF results can be totally misleading though. Especially with games missed . when Rayner finished 5th in the BnF no-one in their right mind would have him as the lions 5th best player. Maybe 12 or 13. I have him much lower. Hypothetically, if he's role is to lead up the ground and be a forward diversion to allow Daniher more space and Daniher kicks 10. Both have done their role and get votes. It's pretty flawed.
Like you said, it was a shock to fans. His career is at the crossroads. I was promised a breakout last season, it never arrived. 2 rounds in, he hasn't fired a shot.

They’ve done well to hide him from criticism by not defining his position.
If he was defined as a midfielder he’d be an utter failure likewise as a fwd.
But his sheltered with ‘hybrid’ ‘impact’ player tags so harder to cast judgement

 

[Meteoric Rise]

They’ve done well to hide him from criticism by not defining his position.
If he was defined as a midfielder he’d be an utter failure likewise as a fwd.
But his sheltered with ‘hybrid’ ‘impact’ player tags so harder to cast judgement

The role Rayner plays is a very difficult one in terms of gaining public recognition. People are too quick to define forwards by old benchmarks like how many goals they kick, or how many possessions they get. People readily accept Brad Close, or Jack Graham or Alex Neal-Bullen or McReery as crucial role players in Premiership teams, but won't accept Rayner playing anything other than a starring role in a successful team.

Rayner's best model is probably someone like Isaac Heeney, who plays a similar role for the Swans. Heeney to me has always been an under-rated player, much better than people give him credit for given the difficulty of his role. Mid-sized players who can consistently impact contests ahead of the ball or like gold, but they are rare. Players like Rayner are very difficult to rate as you have pointed out. But he is consistently being selected in a very strong team, so he cannot be going too badly.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

BnF results can be totally misleading though. Especially with games missed . when Rayner finished 5th in the BnF no-one in their right mind would have him as the lions 5th best player. Maybe 12 or 13. I have him much lower. Hypothetically, if he's role is to lead up the ground and be a forward diversion to allow Daniher more space and Daniher kicks 10. Both have done their role and get votes. It's pretty flawed.
Like you said, it was a shock to fans. His career is at the crossroads. I was promised a breakout last season, it never arrived. 2 rounds in, he hasn't fired a shot.

This statement I have bolded in your post is generally very true. The trouble is it doesn't appear to be true in this case. Lions had 9 players play all 26 games, another 3 missed just 1 game, another 3 missed just 2 games and 2 missed 3 games. So Rayner's B & F standing does not appear to have been substantially affected by other players missing games. He finished ahead of 6 players who also played every game. Starcevich, Hipwood, Wilmott, Charlie Cameron, McKenna and Daniher.

If most football followers were to be asked who were the most effective forwards for Brisbane last year they would go straight to the goal kicking "stars" Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher. It is instructive that the Brisbane coaches rated Rayner as marginally better than both of those despite the trio all playing the same amount of games. Why do you think that might be Danster?

 

[RonnieRaven]

The role Rayner plays is a very difficult one in terms of gaining public recognition. People are too quick to define forwards by old benchmarks like how many goals they kick, or how many possessions they get. People readily accept Brad Close, or Jack Graham or Alex Neal-Bullen or McReery as crucial role players in Premiership teams, but won't accept Rayner playing anything other than a starring role in a successful team.

Rayner's best model is probably someone like Isaac Heeney, who plays a similar role for the Swans. Heeney to me has always been an under-rated player, much better than people give him credit for given the difficulty of his role. Mid-sized players who can consistently impact contests ahead of the ball or like gold, but they are rare. Players like Rayner are very difficult to rate as you have pointed out. But he is consistently being selected in a very strong team, so he cannot be going too badly.

I’m only speaking as a number 1 pick
Cam can definitely play a role but you can get players like that for junk picks.
Lachie Schultz was recruited from the vfl for pick 57 the draft after cam
Averages more disposals, goals, tackles and marks so far in their careers

 

[bzparkes]

They’ve done well to hide him from criticism by not defining his position.
If he was defined as a midfielder he’d be an utter failure likewise as a fwd.
But his sheltered with ‘hybrid’ ‘impact’ player tags so harder to cast judgement

Sounds like De Goey/Stringer, without the profile/s**t tatts.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Sounds like De Goey/Stringer, without the profile/s**t tatts.

He’s not even close to their overrated level.
Cam has a career ave of 12 disposals and less than a goal a game.
he doesn’t have one area of his game that he can consistently hang his hat on.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I’m only speaking as a number 1 pick
Cam can definitely play a role but you can get players like that for junk picks.
Lachie Schultz was recruited from the vfl for pick 57 the draft after cam
Averages more disposals, goals, tackles and marks so far in their careers

A player like Schultz's career is only comparable to Rayner at best, statistically speaking. But Rayner offers something more than most that is not recorded statistically, it is the ability to crash packs and at times outmuscle multiple opponents in contests. There are hardly any players in the competition that can do that, and it is an incredibly valuable ability to have in football.

 

[danster168]

This statement I have bolded in your post is generally very true. The trouble is it doesn't appear to be true in this case. Lions had 9 players play all 26 games, another 3 missed just 1 game, another 3 missed just 2 games and 2 missed 3 games. So Rayner's B & F standing does not appear to have been substantially affected by other players missing games. He finished ahead of 6 players who also played every game. Starcevich, Hipwood, Wilmott, Charlie Cameron, McKenna and Daniher.

If most football followers were to be asked who were the most effective forwards for Brisbane last year they would go straight to the goal kicking "stars" Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher. It is instructive that the Brisbane coaches rated Rayner as marginally better than both of those despite the trio all playing the same amount of games. Why do you think that might be Danster?

I mean obviously Rayner is nowhere near those guys so I'm guessing Rayner was given his role to be a diversion forward rolling up creating space or something. No other logic behind it. Alex Neale-Bullen came 6th in our BnF last season and almost pipped one of the best fullbacks in the game in Steven May so BnF results don't really mean much unless you actually win.

 

[danster168]

A player like Schultz's career is only comparable to Rayner at best, statistically speaking. But Rayner offers something more than most that is not recorded statistically, it is the ability to crash packs and at times outmuscle multiple opponents in contests. There are hardly any players in the competition that can do that, and it is an incredibly valuable ability to have in football.

Dude, Schultz is significantly better than Rayner what are you talking about!!! Schultz was traded for First round pick plus pick 34. Rayner is getting a pick in the 20's at best and nothing more. Not to mention his pay packet would be 150-200k cheaper per season.

Schultz is basically Rayner with work ethic, goal kicking ability and all whilst playing for a much worse team.

Majak Daw could crash packs too. It means nothing.

 

[RonnieRaven]

A player like Schultz's career is only comparable to Rayner at best, statistically speaking. But Rayner offers something more than most that is not recorded statistically, it is the ability to crash packs and at times outmuscle multiple opponents in contests. There are hardly any players in the competition that can do that, and it is an incredibly valuable ability to have in football.

You’re not part of the English cricket set up are you?
Yes Josh Treacy has that ability for us and i love it great to watch, impactful and most of the time not recorded statistically.
Josh was taken pick 7 in the rookie draft.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You’re not part of the English cricket set up are you?
Yes Josh Treacy has that ability for us and i love it great to watch, impactful and most of the time not recorded statistically.
Josh was taken pick 7 in the rookie draft.

Treacy is a developing key position player. Plenty of good key position players have that ability. I was referring more to mid sized and smaller forwards, who are of course generally a lot more damaging otherwise.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Treacy is a developing key position player. Plenty of good key position players have that ability. I was referring more to mid sized and smaller forwards, who are of course generally a lot more damaging otherwise.

I think you’re reaching.
I like him as a player would love him to reach his potential but to date he’s a low disposals, low goalkicking, average pressure player that can hit a contest like a rookie pick key forward

 

[AFDogs]

Middle of the road player who was unfortunately taken at pick 1. Had he been a late first rounder or 2nd rounder he wouldn't be scrutinised.

Not what you would want out of a pick 1.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Dude, Schultz is significantly better than Rayner what are you talking about!!! Schultz was traded for First round pick plus pick 34. Rayner is getting a pick in the 20's at best and nothing more. Not to mention his pay packet would be 150-200k cheaper per season.

Schultz is basically Rayner with work ethic, goal kicking ability and all whilst playing for a much worse team.

Majak Daw could crash packs too. It means nothing.

Schultz was traded for a pick that ended up at 38 in the 2023 draft + Collingwood's first round pick in the 2024 draft, which given they are the Premiers and there are again loads of high end father-sons etc, will be expected to land in the early 20's. So you are probably talking about pick 38 and pick 22 or something like that. If traded for a single pick those picks would have a marketable value of around pick 18, and Collingwood paid a premium because they think they are in the window and they really needed that type of player. Teams would offer that or more for Rayner if they needed a player with his profile.

If Rayner had no work ethic, how does he finish genuine 5th in the B & F for a Grand Final team? That point does not make any sense at all. No way the coaches would be recognising him like that if he had no work ethic.

In terms of goal impact there is barely any difference between Schultz and Rayner so I don't know why that should be such a focus.

Saying crashing packs means nothing is just displaying a lack of understanding about how football works Danster.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think you’re reaching.
I like him as a player would love him to reach his potential but to date he’s a low disposals, low goalkicking, average pressure player that can hit a contest like a rookie pick key forward

Rayner is much stronger than Treacy in a contest at this point at least. This is probably why Treacy runs at about 4 contested possessions per game and Rayner has spent the last 2 whole season and this season going at 6-7 contested possessions per game.