Cam Rayner

[Meteoric Rise]

At the end of the day Rayner needs to improve. There is no doubting that. I think most lions fans had this year written off anyways so he can get back into the swing of it. Do we want to see a bull at the stopages and some good goals. For sure. The talent is there. But the slow burn is on. Hope he can reach his ceiling before his time is up.

I don't think its a dire as Dan does. But he's entitled to his opinion. Not sure why he keeps banging on about it though. Maybe he loves him deep down.

Dan is entitled to his opinion. But if he posts it here, we are entitled to scrutinise it. And it is not standing up too well.

The Dees spent all their cash and/or draft capital on Lever, May, Brayshaw, Petracca, Oliver, Gawn, Viney, Pickett, Salem, Jackson, Langdon, Tomlinson, Weideman and B Brown.

Most of those have worked out well and the first 7 listed(bolded) are consistently playing to a very high standard, which is making a lot of the rest of the team look good, and is making their jobs easier.

They also have a good selection of mainly young players who were acquired for late 1st to late 2nd round picks. Neal-Bullen, Spargo, Rivers, Petty, Fritsch, Bowey, Jordon and Sparrow. And a few of these we haven’t seen yet, Rosman, Van Rooyen, Laurie, and Howes.

This second bolded list Dan has been fooled into thinking they are top shelf players. One or two of them may become that, and they are all more or less good in their assigned roles, but most of them remain very young so we expect they have plenty to prove yet as other teams start to learn about how to deal with them. We see Rivers for eg is having a prolonged run in the VFL team. Spargo is seriously struggling for impact. Fritsch is being shown up as a second tier receiver. Bowey is starting to realise how tough it can be. But Dan seems to have a deluded opinion as to how valuable some of these players are right now. Of that second bolded list I know Neal-Bullen is very highly rated internally for his pressure and tackling. And I rate Petty because he has shown he can hold his own against top class key forwards. But the rest remain peripheral non-key players in peripheral roles. And Dan doesn’t seem to understand they are kept to the periphery because that is all they can handle at present. And Rayner being used at times as a centre bounce mid in a similarly strong team, and winning some massive contests, means he is in reality tracking ahead of these guys. As will become clear soon enough. But maybe not to Dan.

 

[Milux]

Dan is entitled to his opinion. But if he posts it here, we are entitled to scrutinise it. And it is not standing up too well.

The Dees spent all their cash and/or draft capital on Lever, May, Brayshaw, Petracca, Oliver, Gawn, Viney, Pickett, Salem, Jackson, Langdon, Tomlinson, Weideman and B Brown.

Most of those have worked out well and the first 7 listed(bolded) are consistently playing to a very high standard, which is making a lot of the rest of the team look good, and is making their jobs easier.

They also have a good selection of mainly young players who were acquired for late 1st to late 2nd round picks. Neal-Bullen, Spargo, Rivers, Petty, Fritsch, Bowey, Jordon and Sparrow. And a few of these we haven’t seen yet, Rosman, Van Rooyen, Laurie, and Howes.

This second bolded list Dan has been fooled into thinking they are top shelf players. One or two of them may become that, and they are all more or less good in their assigned roles, but most of them remain very young so we expect they have plenty to prove yet as other teams start to learn about how to deal with them. We see Rivers for eg is having a prolonged run in the VFL team. Spargo is seriously struggling for impact. Fritsch is being shown up as a second tier receiver. Bowey is starting to realise how tough it can be. But Dan seems to have a deluded opinion as to how valuable some of these players are right now. Of that second bolded list I know Neal-Bullen is very highly rated internally for his pressure and tackling. And I rate Petty because he has shown he can hold his own against top class key forwards. But the rest remain peripheral non-key players in peripheral roles. And Dan doesn’t seem to understand they are kept to the periphery because that is all they can handle at present. And Rayner being used at times as a centre bounce mid in a similarly strong team, and winning some massive contests, means he is in reality tracking ahead of these guys. As will become clear soon enough. But maybe not to Dan.

Alot of those Melbourne players would look ordinary in a bad team. They aren't game winners (not that cam is right now) or players that could turn a game.

Melbourne's top players are better then any in the comp. But if you put a player like Fritch into say a North line up where there is no easy forward footy and he wouldn't get a touch.

 

[scott_the_man]

Alot of those Melbourne players would look ordinary in a bad team. They aren't game winners (not that cam is right now) or players that could turn a game.

Melbourne's top players are better then any in the comp. But if you put a player like Fritch into say a North line up where there is no easy forward footy and he wouldn't get a touch.

Totally agree there. Fritsch is a product of an elite midfield and a high functioning forward line. He gets on the end of the hard work of his teammates. He contributes sweet f all else. If he were playing for a bottom 8 side he would be bog average.

 

[Cdog71]

Totally agree there. Fritsch is a product of an elite midfield and a high functioning forward line. He gets on the end of the hard work of his teammates. He contributes sweet f all else. If he were playing for a bottom 8 side he would be bog

There’s a pretty good argument it’s a high functioning fwd line because he’s part of it.
6 goals in a Granny and 33 goals 14 in 15 games this year.
It’s not because he’s lucky.

 

[scott_the_man]

There’s a pretty good argument it’s a high functioning fwd line because he’s part of it.
6 goals in a Granny and 33 goals 14 in 15 games this year.
It’s not because he’s lucky.

Disagree. It's high functioning because of how they work as a unit and how dominant the midfield is. There's absolutely no doubt that it is a factor in his output.

Removing Fritsch from that forward line isn't going to change much.

 

[Cdog71]

Disagree. It's high functioning because of how they work as a unit and how dominant the midfield is. There's absolutely no doubt that it is a factor in his output.

Removing Fritsch from that forward line isn't going to change much.

Last year and this year both his goal kicking is over 70% as successful.
I bet you can’t find higher

39 games
92 goals
Better than 70% success rate.
That’s elite 7 days a week

 

[scott_the_man]

Last year and this year both his goal kicking is over 70% as successful.
I bet you can’t find higher

39 games
92 goals
Better than 70% success rate.
That’s elite 7 days a week

I'm not arguing that he can't kick straight. I agree he can. Doesn't mean he's elite by any stretch.

 

[Cdog71]

I'm not arguing that he can't kick straight. I agree he can. Doesn't mean he's elite by any stretch.

Yes it does

 

[Cdog71]

I'm not arguing that he can't kick straight. I agree he can. Doesn't mean he's elite by any stretch.

This is the last thing I’m gonna say on it.
Accuracy is the best weapon against the improved team defence.
Last year there where 32 games where the winning team had fewer or equal shots and 52 games where won by two goals or less.
25% of all games.
The only time Melb have scored more points than goals this year is when they smashed Brisbane.
Accuracy has become more important and Fritsch is elite at maximising his opportunities.

 

[scott_the_man]

This is the last thing I’m gonna say on it.
Accuracy is the best weapon against the improved team defence.
Last year there where 32 games where the winning team had fewer or equal shots and 52 games where won by two goals or less.
25% of all games.
The only time Melb have scored more points than goals this year is when they smashed Brisbane.
Accuracy has become more important and Fritsch is elite at maximising his opportunities.

Again I agree he is elite at maximising his opportunities. The problem is he offers absolutely nothing else. Very one dimensional and a liability defensively.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

This is the last thing I’m gonna say on it.
Accuracy is the best weapon against the improved team defence.
Last year there where 32 games where the winning team had fewer or equal shots and 52 games where won by two goals or less.
25% of all games.
The only time Melb have scored more points than goals this year is when they smashed Brisbane.
Accuracy has become more important and Fritsch is elite at maximising his opportunities.

Melbourne have scored 198 goals 197 behinds this season. Only three teams in the AFL have worse conversion than that.

Fritsch is a good shot at goal, but he would get a fairly easy array of shots, given the way Melbourne use him. 34.17 does not look extraordinary given the amount of joe the goose goals and set shots from chest marks within 30m of goal Fritsch takes. Heeney for example has 34.13. Stringer 14.6. Martin 11.6. Ziebell 10.6. Toby Greene 24.13. So when teams use these medium sized players as leading targets from deep forward you can see the 2:1 goal:behind ratio is not exceptional.

Regarding Fritsch being elite, he is clearly not elite in his overall game, a long way from it. On a load of measures he is average and below average. He is elite for goals if you don’t count him as a key forward. But if you do it properly and isolate the 18 small/general forwards who regularly play closest to goal for their teams, Fritsch is =3rd for goals per game behind Greene and Charles Cameron and level with Heeney. But he would be 4th on this list behind Heeney on a minutes deep forward per goal basis. 4th of 18 players is not elite in the AFL. If you take a better approach and introduce goals + goal assists as a better measure, Fritsch sinks to 6th amongst general forwards in the AFL on this measure as Bolton Breust and Rankine go ahead of him and Heeney falls below him. But again on a goals + goal assists per minute spent deep forward all these guys are ahead of Fritsch and possibly others as well. 7th of 18 general forwards who play deepest for their team is definitely not elite.

If you further adjusted Fritsch by placing him in an average team, he falls further behind other general forwards. And that is just based on goal and goal assists, basically Fritsch’s strongest area. You will struggle to find deep forwards with a weaker set of contested possession/contested marking/disposal statistics than Fritsch has accumulated in 2022. Fritsch is definitely not an elite AFL footballer on any proper analysis of his role and output. He would be on the average side of above average at best.

 

[Cdog71]

Melbourne have scored 198 goals 197 behinds this season. Only three teams in the AFL have worse conversion than that.

Fritsch is a good shot at goal, but he would get a fairly easy array of shots, given the way Melbourne use him. 34.17 does not look extraordinary given the amount of joe the goose goals and set shots from chest marks within 30m of goal Fritsch takes. Heeney for example has 34.13. Stringer 14.6. Martin 11.6. Ziebell 10.6. Toby Greene 24.13. So when teams use these medium sized players as leading targets from deep forward you can see the 2:1 goal:behind ratio is not exceptional.

Regarding Fritsch being elite, he is clearly not elite in his overall game, a long way from it. On a load of measures he is average and below average. He is elite for goals if you don’t count him as a key forward. But if you do it properly and isolate the 18 small/general forwards who regularly play closest to goal for their teams, Fritsch is =3rd for goals per game behind Greene and Charles Cameron and level with Heeney. But he would be 4th on this list behind Heeney on a minutes deep forward per goal basis. 4th of 18 players is not elite in the AFL. If you take a better approach and introduce goals + goal assists as a better measure, Fritsch sinks to 6th amongst general forwards in the AFL on this measure as Bolton Breust and Rankine go ahead of him and Heeney falls below him. But again on a goals + goal assists per minute spent deep forward all these guys are ahead of Fritsch and possibly others as well. 7th of 18 general forwards who play deepest for their team is definitely not elite.

If you further adjusted Fritsch by placing him in an average team, he falls further behind other general forwards. And that is just based on goal and goal assists, basically Fritsch’s strongest area. You will struggle to find deep forwards with a weaker set of contested possession/contested marking/disposal statistics than Fritsch has accumulated in 2022. Fritsch is definitely not an elite AFL footballer on any proper analysis of his role and output. He would be on the average side of above average at best.

Yep
Though it’s last year as well over 70% conversions. 92 goals in 39 games.
He is an elite shot at goal

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yep
Though it’s last year as well over 70% conversions. 92 goals in 39 games.
He is an elite shot at goal

Fritsch has kicked 93.41 since the start of 2021 in 40 matches. His conversion rate is not well over 70% at all, it is 69%. His goal rate of 2.3 per game is healthy but not exceptional. It equates to a player kicking 50 goals in a 22 game season. His goal + goal assist rate of 2.7 in that time again is healthy but not exceptional, and much less so for a player who offers absolutely nothing else at all. Fritsch is a mirage. Good role player and nothing more.

 

[danster168]

Davies-Uniacke. 33 possessions, 12 clearances, 791 metres gained whilst getting attention from Pendlebury. And Brisbane fans are putting Rayner ahead of him.

 

[Jeremiah001]

An Indecent Obsession.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Davies-Uniacke. 33 possessions, 12 clearances, 791 metres gained whilst getting attention from Pendlebury. And Brisbane fans are putting Rayner ahead of him.

Same Davies-Uniacke you rated 4 picks below Joe The Goose scab Bayley Fritsch danster?

 

[danster168]

Same Davies-Uniacke you rated 4 picks below Joe The Goose scab Bayley Fritsch danster?

Yeah, of course. 59 goals in a season mate.That's a lot of goals lol. To think that you had Rayner ahead of Davies-Uniacke and about 20 other blokes that are out performing him, significantly. every...single...week.

Sam Taylor also played a great game today.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yeah, of course. 59 goals in a season mate.That's a lot of goals lol. To think that you had Rayner ahead of Davies-Uniacke and about 20 other blokes that are out performing him, significantly. every...single...week.

Sam Taylor also played a great game today.

Errr…..did I?

The evidence is there for you to check dan, not like that is your speciality though.

And you might also like to check where I had Sam Taylor rated while you are at it…

You are having a dead set shocker on this thread Dan, covering yourself in shame.

To help you along….my top 10:

1 Brayshaw - looks a fairly complete mid. Pick 2
2 Naughton - brilliant KPP, best of this group. Like to see improve set shots. Pick 2

3 Balta - adaptable KPP and second ruck, has huge weapons. Pick 3

4 Sam Taylor - class Key defender already. Pick 5
5 Cerra - always tracked a bit below Brayshaw but looks a strong mid Pick 5

After that there is a bit of a gap from what I have seen so far.

6 Bailey - Lions were right onto this bloke. Wing, mid, half back, small forward all look within his capabilities. Pick 8
7 Clark - in between getting hurt has shown good ability at half back and mid. Pick 8
8 Uniacke - shown just enough to suggest he can be a strong mid, good weapons. Pick 8

9. Rayner - his potential is strong enough that I couldn’t place him lower in this field. Pick 10

10. Allen - Really tidy undersized KPP. I feel he is over-rated a bit but I still rate him highly, loved his work in defence. Pick 12

 

[Meteoric Rise]

danster168

If danster saw that last mark and goal from Rayner that Fritsch or Spargo couldn’t dream of replicating, we need to find a way of checking danster is ok.

 

[danster168]

HAHAHAHA. Rayner, yet another MEDIOCRE GAME. 12 touches, 3 of which were clangers (LOL) with plenty of midfield time and centre bounces.

That brings his monthly average to 12 touches. What an elite talent! Not only is his floor low, his ceiling is also low.

I'll be dropping him much lower in my rankings now. Mediocre Rise, over to you. This is where you try and justify it by finding one of the very rare stats where he showed that he wasn't just a corpse out there.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

HAHAHAHA. Rayner, yet another MEDIOCRE GAME. 12 touches, 3 of which were clangers (LOL) with plenty of midfield time and centre bounces.

That brings his monthly average to 12 touches. What an elite talent! Not only is his floor low, his ceiling is also low.

I'll be dropping him much lower in my rankings now. Mediocre Rise, over to you. This is where you try and justify it by finding one of the very rare stats where he showed that he wasn't just a corpse out there.


View attachment 1443859

Phew, what a relief. It seems dan didn’t see the monster pack mark and goal to put the Lions within a kick with minutes left. I would have been a bit worried for dan if he had seen Rayner’s monster grab, his 12 contested mark for the season….exactly double what kick-it-to-me receiver Fritsch has taken, and 6 times the amount uncontested brute Chuck Spargo has taken.

There is no doubt however Fritsch is one of the best chest marks we have seen when no opponent is within 20 metres of him. And Spargo is world class at calling for a handball over the top.

 

[danster168]

Phew, what a relief. It seems dan didn’t see the monster pack mark and goal to put the Lions within a kick with minutes left. I would have been a bit worried for dan if he had seen Rayner’s monster grab, his 12 contested mark for the season….exactly double what kick-it-to-me receiver Fritsch has taken.

There is no doubt however Fritsch is one of the best chest marks we have seen when no opponent is within 20 metres of him.

haha, are you saying that Rayner played well? because in 2 hours of football, 1 good play trumps 2 hours of trash football? I watched him like a hawk and he was horrendous. Even worse that I thought.

I know I've won the debate when you run the old 'he could be injured' line. When you speculate that no healthy person can play at such a trash level without there being a reason, you know you've lost. Now you've resorted to individual pieces of play. hahahahahaha.


Meanwhile Dylan Moore has 29 touches, 7 marks and 7 tackles.
Ainsworth 26, 2 goals, 14 marks.

Are you at least going to put him closer to 20 in the draft now after he has failed to live up to anything this season or will you wait until he's 27 years old

 

[Meteoric Rise]

haha, are you saying that Rayner played well? because in 2 hours of football, 1 good play trumps 2 hours of trash football? I watched him like a hawk and he was horrendous. Even worse that I thought.

I know I've won the debate when you run the old 'he could be injured' line. When you speculate that no healthy person can play at such a trash level without there being a reason, you know you've lost. Now you've resorted to individual pieces of play. hahahahahaha.


Meanwhile Dylan Moore has 29 touches, 7 marks and 7 tackles.
Ainsworth 26, 2 goals, 14 marks.

Are you at least going to put him closer to 20 in the draft now after he has failed to live up to anything this season or will you wait until he's 27 years old

I admire you Dan. Nobody could stick to their pop guns better than you.

Rayner plays this game and according to you it is horrendous, so you are downgrading him:

12 disposals, 9 effective disposals, 7 contested possessionss including 2 contested marks, 1 goal 2 behinds, highlighted by a massive clutch pack hanger and conversion to put his team within a kick with 3 minutes left. 240 metres gained.



Your two bruise evading circus clowns Fritsch and Spargo play this game - BETWEEN THEM - aaaaaaaannnnnd, no downgrade.

13 disposals, 1 goal, zero goal assists, 3 goal assist burns , 4 contested possessions, 0 contested marks, 5 effective disposals, 0 contested marks, 291 metres gained.

But according to you, Fritsch is worth pick 4, Spudgo is worth pick 18 and Rayner is worth pick 30 due to this so called bad game he played…..


You are a very fair and unbiased judge dan.

 

[danster168]

I admire you Dan. Nobody could stick to their pop guns better than you.

Rayner plays this game and according to you it is horrendous, so you are downgrading him:

12 disposals, 9 effective disposals, 7 contested possessionss including 2 contested marks, 1 goal 2 behinds, highlighted by a massive clutch pack hanger and conversion to put his team within a kick with 3 minutes left. 240 metres gained.



Your two bruise evading circus clowns Fritsch and Spargo play this game - BETWEEN THEM - aaaaaaaannnnnd, no downgrade.

13 disposals, 1 goal, zero goal assists, 3 goal assist burns , 4 contested possessions, 0 contested marks, 5 effective disposals, 0 contested marks, 291 metres gained.

But according to you, Fritsch is worth pick 4, Spudgo is worth pick 18 and Rayner is worth pick 30 due to this so called bad game he played…..


You are a very fair and unbiased judge dan.

hahahahahaha you're calling his game good? LAUGHABLE!!!!

Fritsch can have 3 years of bad footy. It's called having credits in the bank. When you kick 6 in a granny and 59 for the season you can afford these luxuries.

Cam Rayner on the other hand who had 9 effective disposals in 2 hours of footy, in the MIDFIELD, yet again! He would need 4-5 consecutive All-Australians to justify pick 1. And on his current trajectory, he'll be even lower down than pick 30.

Can you tell me how on earth you've got him higher than Dylan Moore? Or even Ainsworth. You conveniently didn't address that.

Also if 9 effective disposals is your measurement of good then can you make a case that Rayner is better than Sparrow? Sparrow averages more disposals, in the same role and has produced on the big stage, including a clutch GF goal.

 

[SSSSSS]

Errr…..did I?

The evidence is there for you to check dan, not like that is your speciality though.

And you might also like to check where I had Sam Taylor rated while you are at it…

You are having a dead set shocker on this thread Dan, covering yourself in shame.

To help you along….my top 10:

1 Brayshaw - looks a fairly complete mid. Pick 2
2 Naughton - brilliant KPP, best of this group. Like to see improve set shots. Pick 2

3 Balta - adaptable KPP and second ruck, has huge weapons. Pick 3

4 Sam Taylor - class Key defender already. Pick 5
5 Cerra - always tracked a bit below Brayshaw but looks a strong mid Pick 5

After that there is a bit of a gap from what I have seen so far.

6 Bailey - Lions were right onto this bloke. Wing, mid, half back, small forward all look within his capabilities. Pick 8
7 Clark - in between getting hurt has shown good ability at half back and mid. Pick 8
8 Uniacke - shown just enough to suggest he can be a strong mid, good weapons. Pick 8

9. Rayner - his potential is strong enough that I couldn’t place him lower in this field. Pick 10

10. Allen - Really tidy undersized KPP. I feel he is over-rated a bit but I still rate him highly, loved his work in defence. Pick 12

Lacks Dylan Moore. Easily top 10.