Cam Rayner

[Nunez]

Rayner was actually playing a decent game before he got injured. One of the few Lions players crashing in. Won a couple 50/50 contests. He's never going to be a 25+ disposal player. Hoping his injury isn't serious ? If he can have a good pre season I hope he takes his game to the level we know can achieve and showed against St Kilda this year.

Not when playing half forward. I think he's one good preseason away from being a mid who can get 20-30 touches a game when needed or drift forward for a few goals or goal assists.

He showed some genuine growth late in the season and in particular last night. He is primed for a big 2023.

 

[La Dispute]

Next evolution for Rayner is to have him starting at the stoppages and playing 70% mid, 30% forward.

Seems to actually have reasonable ability in contested situations. He’s not the most natural extractor but he uses his body to move players off the line and gets access to the ball this way.

Knows how to adjust his kicks to suit the situation/opposition structure behind the ball.

Can seeing him having a big year next year if he improves his fitness again and Fagan plays him as a true mid.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Rayner would be entitled to be very happy with his season off and ACL. He is entering his prime next season and we should start to get a look at where he can get to. I thought he was excellent last night in his time on ground, probably Brisbane’s best, admittedly from a sorry bunch. His ability to win contests has never been in doubt but also showed excellent composure ball in hand last night.

I expect Rayner to be one of Brisbane’s best 5-6 players in 2023, injuries allowing. I expect his ankle should be fine after a short rehab. He was very close to really breaking out in 2022, with commentators constantly giving him favourable mentions. But I am confident he will take a good step forward next year and put the lie to any suggestion he is a failure or even a poor selection at the draft. I am excited about what Rayner can do, very bullish about him.

His team needs to go back to the drawing board to some extent. The backline needs improving, as does the inside mid mix, which at times last night saw Mathieson, Robertson and Bailey at centre bounces together. None of those are AFL finals level inside mids, though Robertson will only get better. The addition of Dunkley would be ideal for the Lions if they can pull that off. Neale-Dunkley-McLuggage-Berry with some Rayner in centre bounces would look a lot better and very well balanced, with Robertson and the big name draftees expected to feature as well.

 

[Nunez]

Rayner would be entitled to be very happy with his season off and ACL. He is entering his prime next season and we should start to get a look at where he can get to. I thought he was excellent last night in his time on ground, probably Brisbane’s best, admittedly from a sorry bunch. His ability to win contests has never been in doubt but also showed excellent composure ball in hand last night.

I expect Rayner to be one of Brisbane’s best 5-6 players in 2023, injuries allowing. I expect his ankle should be fine after a short rehab. He was very close to really breaking out in 2022, with commentators constantly giving him favourable mentions. But I am confident he will take a good step forward next year and put the lie to any suggestion he is a failure or even a poor selection at the draft. I am excited about what Rayner can do, very bullish about him.

His team needs to go back to the drawing board to some extent. The backline needs improving, as does the inside mid mix, which at times last night saw Mathieson, Robertson and Bailey at centre bounces together. None of those are AFL finals level inside mids, though Robertson will only get better. The addition of Dunkley would be ideal for the Lions if they can pull that off. Neale-Dunkley-McLuggage-Berry with some Rayner in centre bounces would look a lot better and very well balanced, with Robertson and the big name draftees expected to feature as well.

Neale Dunkley McCluggage
Rayner Berry Ashcroft
Robertson Bailey

^ I think a premiership calibre midfield is in that group of rotations.

 

[Roobs321]

Agree he is one of the most intriguing players going into 2023, he looks mature enough for it. If they can get a full preseason into him and Hipwood they’ll have a different look. He made several impactful plays last night when the Lions usual suspects were constrained and the team really needed something special.

 

[scott_the_man]

Cam Rayner not doing much. 7 touches, 90 metres gained. Semi decent first quarter by Rayners standards, invisible in the 2nd quarter.

This proves how little you pay attention. Rayner was the Lions most composed player before he went off injured. The rest of the team shat the bed when they got possession but Rayner composed himself and impacted every time he went near it.

 

[Elixuh]

Fantasy football and easy access to stats has turned a lot of football watchers into simpletons.

I don't think the advent of fantasy football had any impact on Danster though

 

[Nunez]

Rayner 4 votes.
Spargo & Fritsch combined votes: 0

Weird.

 

[Elixuh]

danster168 were Spargo and Fritsch robbed?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

danster168 were Spargo and Fritsch robbed?

But, but, but Fritsch was in the AA squad of 145.

 

[The Passenger]

It's pretty self-evident the quality he does have with the ball in hand. He just needs to start getting more of it, which he was in parts during 2022.

He'll never be a consistent ball winner like Clayton Oliver

10

Clayton Oliver

Age

28

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

, Touk Miller

11

Touk Miller

Age

29

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

12.3

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

5.4

5star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.8

5star

K

5.8

3star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.0

5star

or teammate Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

32

Ht

177cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

but if he can get his average disposals up to 20 or a bit beyond, whilst maintaining a goal a game (or near to) that will make him a really damaging footballer for Brisbane.

For a player to have such a high impact with each possession is a handy thing for the coach to have in his back pocket. Just gotta keep working on ways to get the ball in his hand more often.

 

[Ginnieboy]

Will be a very good player.

 

[danster168]

Dunkley on the way to the Lions. I guess another year of 13 possessions, 1 goal per game in the half forward line for Rayner next year.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Dunkley on the way to the Lions. I guess another year of 13 possessions, 1 goal per game in the half forward line for Rayner next year.

Mate, your pick 18 Chuck Spargo could only dream of getting 1 goal per game, or 1.8 goals + goal assists, or 15 possessions like Rayner got in 2022. But Rayner is not worth a pick in the 20’s according to you.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Dunkley on the way to the Lions. I guess another year of 13 possessions, 1 goal per game in the half forward line for Rayner next year.

Rayner is just playing his role after all, just worry about your Spargo for now mate

 

[danster168]

Mate, your pick 18 Chuck Spargo could only dream of getting 1 goal per game, or 1.8 goals + goal assists, or 15 possessions like Rayner got in 2022. But Rayner is not worth a pick in the 20’s according to you.

Totally fine for Spargo to be a role player or even a bust, we spent pick 29 on him. Rayner was a pick 1

And now with Dunkley on his way, it's going to be another year of potential nothingness in the hybrid role and you messaging me once every 6 weeks when he has 17 touches and 2 goals lol.

So the midfield is Neale, Dunkley, Lyons, Berry, Mccluggage, Zorko. Rayner will be 7th cab off the rank in the midfield.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Totally fine for Spargo to be a role player or even a bust, we spent pick 29 on him. Rayner was a pick 1

And now with Dunkley on his way, it's going to be another year of potential nothingness in the hybrid role and you messaging me once every 6 weeks when he has 17 touches and 2 goals lol.

So the midfield is Neale, Dunkley, Lyons, Berry, Mccluggage, Zorko. Rayner will be 7th cab off the rank in the midfield.

But didn’t you rate Spargo pick 18 and Rayner pick 30? You now look 40 picks out with that - 20 each player - which is miles worse that Brisbane who you lampooned for taking Rayner pick 1 which now looks at absolute worst about 12 picks wrong.

 

[danster168]

But didn’t you rate Spargo pick 18 and Rayner pick 30? You now look 40 picks out with that - 20 each player - which is miles worse that Brisbane who you lampooned for taking Rayner pick 1 which now looks at absolute worst about 12 picks wrong.

How have I been wrong? you conveniently changed the definition halfway through our debate. I was referring to Total value since draft date and Rayner I had at about 30. Nothing has changed.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How have I been wrong? you conveniently changed the definition halfway through our debate. I was referring to Total value since draft date and Rayner I had at about 30. Nothing has changed.

Your weirdly chosen method of rating players is wrong, and your way of rating players even by your own criteria is wrong. Rayner was never behind Spargo at any stage of their respective careers but you would have to be seriously deluded to say Spargo is worth a higher draft pick than Rayner now. Clubs would fall over themselves to offer a mid first round pick for Rayner this coming trade period, but Spargo would be scraping to fetch a pick under 30.

Even by your pointless criteria danster, Rayner is comfortably ahead:



But if we take a more meaningful snapshot of where they are in 2022, remembering Rayner was off an ACL injury:

 

[Nunez]

Dunkley on the way to the Lions. I guess another year of 13 possessions, 1 goal per game in the half forward line for Rayner next year.

Dunkley & Rayner: 18 votes
Spargo & Fritsch: zero votes

 

[danster168]

Your weirdly chosen method of rating players is wrong, and your way of rating players even by your own criteria is wrong. Rayner was never behind Spargo at any stage of their respective careers but you would have to be seriously deluded to say Spargo is worth a higher draft pick than Rayner now. Clubs would fall over themselves to offer a mid first round pick for Rayner this coming trade period, but Spargo would be scraping to fetch a pick under 30.

Even by your pointless criteria danster, Rayner is comfortably ahead:

View attachment 1512828

But if we take a more meaningful snapshot of where they are in 2022, remembering Rayner was off an ACL injury:

View attachment 1512833

lol. I can't believe I've had to go over this, again. You're clearly not understanding what is a very simple principle. Talking about current trade value is the most irrational and senseless hypothetical. I'm referring to total draft value since being drafted. i.e. what return on their investment have Brisbane received from their pick 1, thus far. Right now he is comfortably, without question, significantly behind these players.

In no order:
1. Brayshaw AA
2. Davies Uniacke
3. Cerra
4. Liam Ryan AA
5. Fritsch AA squad
6. Dylan Moore
7. Liam Baker
8. Naughton AA Squad
9. Zac Bailey
10. Starcevich
11. Tim Kelly AA
12. Noah Balta
13. Sam Taylor AA
14. Petty
15. Tom De Koning
16. Mihocek
17. Tom McCartin

Now guys who I have ahead of Rayner on what they've already done to date:
18. Ed Richards
19. Jack Higgins
20. Oscar Allen
21. Brent Daniels
22. Spargo
23. Ainsworth
24. Worpel
25. Grien Miers
26. Spargo
27. Switkowski
28. Xerri
29. Nick Holman
30. Nathan Murphy

Rayner probably sits anywhere in the 2nd half of this 2nd list, 25-30.

Sure Rayner may go up the ranks but there's already been players who have made the AA or the AA squad in his draft year so for him to surpass them he would need to turn things around in a big, big way to make up for lost time.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

lol. I can't believe I've had to go over this, again. You're clearly not understanding what is a very simple principle. Talking about current trade value is the most irrational and senseless hypothetical. I'm referring to total draft value since being drafted. i.e. what return on their investment have Brisbane received from their pick 1, thus far. Right now he is comfortably, without question, significantly behind these players.

In no order:
1. Brayshaw AA
2. Davies Uniacke
3. Cerra
4. Liam Ryan AA
5. Fritsch AA squad
6. Dylan Moore
7. Liam Baker
8. Naughton AA Squad
9. Zac Bailey
10. Starcevich
11. Tim Kelly AA
12. Noah Balta
13. Sam Taylor AA
14. Petty
15. Tom De Koning
16. Mihocek
17. Tom McCartin

Now guys who I have ahead of Rayner on what they've already done to date:
18. Ed Richards
19. Jack Higgins
20. Oscar Allen
21. Brent Daniels
22. Spargo
23. Ainsworth
24. Worpel
25. Grien Miers
26. Spargo
27. Switkowski
28. Xerri
29. Nick Holman
30. Nathan Murphy

Rayner probably sits anywhere in the 2nd half of this 2nd list, 25-30.

Sure Rayner may go up the ranks but there's already been players who have made the AA or the AA squad in his draft year so for him to surpass them he would need to turn things around in a big, big way to make up for lost time.

Liam Baker will be shattered you included Spargo twice but excluded him.

You don’t draft 18yo players for what they are going to do in their first 4 or even 5 years. You are drafting them for what they are going to do from 23yo onwards. I don’t rate AA selections much and I note you seem to have switched from Coaches Votes to AA selection as the biggest measure of how good someone is since your boys were a bit devoid of Coaches votes. But nevertheless, Rayn, Fritsch and Kelly all won their AA accolades for what they are worth(Fritsch has not even been picked int he team) after turning 23. Rayner hasn’t even reached that age yet. It leaves you Brayshaw, Naughton and Taylor who were genuine 2017 draftees to have made the squad or the team. Brayshaw has just won the AFL Player’s voted award, and finished high in the Brownlow and Coaches awards. So he is stamping himself as one of the best 5, 10, or at worst 20 footballers in the AFL. Taylor and Naughton are top class 22 yo key position players. Failing to match them is no blight on Rayner no matter where he was taken in the draft. If you offered them up for trade, Naughton and Brayshaw likely fetch higher than pick 1 value and Taylor maybe more like a top 5 pick after their seasons.

But Dan let’s see if we can shift your head out of what the players have done to date which we can all see and judge. Right here, right now in the 2022 trade period, what is Rayner’s trade value? What is Fritsch’s? What is Spargo’s? Exactly how many of those players you have listed have a higher current trade value than Rayner? And name them...

 

[danster168]

Liam Baker will be shattered you included Spargo twice but excluded him.

You don’t draft 18yo players for what they are going to do in their first 4 or even 5 years. You are drafting them for what they are going to do from 23yo onwards. I don’t rate AA selections much and I note you seem to have switched from Coaches Votes to AA selection as the biggest measure of how good someone is since your boys were a bit devoid of Coaches votes. But nevertheless, Rayn, Fritsch and Kelly all won their AA accolades for what they are worth(Fritsch has not even been picked int he team) after turning 23. Rayner hasn’t even reached that age yet. It leaves you Brayshaw, Naughton and Taylor who were genuine 2017 draftees to have made the squad or the team. Brayshaw has just won the AFL Player’s voted award, and finished high in the Brownlow and Coaches awards. So he is stamping himself as one of the best 5, 10, or at worst 20 footballers in the AFL. Taylor and Naughton are top class 22 yo key position players. Failing to match them is no blight on Rayner no matter where he was taken in the draft. If you offered them up for trade, Naughton and Brayshaw likely fetch higher than pick 1 value and Taylor maybe more like a top 5 pick after their seasons.

But Dan let’s see if we can shift your head out of what the players have done to date which we can all see and judge. Right here, right now in the 2022 trade period, what is Rayner’s trade value? What is Fritsch’s? What is Spargo’s? Exactly how many of those players you have listed have a higher current trade value than Rayner? And name them...

At pick 1, you can pick anyone in the whole draft. You could've taken Fritsch or Tom Kelly or any mature aged pick for that matter. Anyone taken in the draft regardless of their age is a legit draftee. You can't disregard them just because they're older.

It's like the 2016 Draft, Essendon took McGrath at Pick 1. Tom Stewart was taken #40 as a 23 year old. You don't hear Essendon fans saying 'oh McGrath is only young, he's getting better. If he was traded he'd get a first round pick. He's top 5 in his draft.' etc. Yeah no. The reality is Tom Stewart should've gone Number 1 and Essendon stuffed the pick up.

Smart by you to say that you don't rate All-Australian, Coaches votes, or statistics in general knowing that Rayner will never achieve any of award of note.

Rayner reminds me of a young Col Sylvia (R.I.P). High draft pick, impressive physique, had all the traits. But never cut it. He was too inconsistent, couldn't find enough of the ball regularly and had just a so so career. He had very similar stats to Rayner in the first 4 years. Sylvia 2009-2011 is Rayner's ceiling.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

At pick 1, you can pick anyone in the whole draft. You could've taken Fritsch or Tom Kelly or any mature aged pick for that matter. Anyone taken in the draft regardless of their age is a legit draftee. You can't disregard them just because they're older.

It's like the 2016 Draft, Essendon took McGrath at Pick 1. Tom Stewart was taken #40 as a 23 year old. You don't hear Essendon fans saying 'oh McGrath is only young, he's getting better. If he was traded he'd get a first round pick. He's top 5 in his draft.' etc. Yeah no. The reality is Tom Stewart should've gone Number 1 and Essendon stuffed the pick up.

Smart by you to say that you don't rate All-Australian, Coaches votes, or statistics in general knowing that Rayner will never achieve any of award of note.

Rayner reminds me of a young Col Sylvia (R.I.P). High draft pick, impressive physique, had all the traits. But never cut it. He was too inconsistent, couldn't find enough of the ball regularly and had just a so so career. He had very similar stats to Rayner in the first 4 years. Sylvia 2009-2011 is Rayner's ceiling.

That is all lovely Dan, but what is Rayner worth in a trade in this trade period? And how many of the other players from the 2017 draft are worth more and who are they?

You need to make up your mind about all the awards etc. Your first pick was Coaches Votes and Rayner beat your Melbourne players who you rate higher than him. So you have shifted to AA squad selection, presumably because Fritsch has achieved that and Rayner hasn’t. I am backing Rayner to have a better career than Fritsch, you are backing Fritsch. We will only know where that sits when their careers are done, and it could go either way. I would definitely take Rayner in Richmond’s team over Fritsch because he plays in a manner that will ultimately be more valuable imo, especially Rayner’s ability to win big contests, and crash packs, something Fritsch will never have in his game.

As for Tom Stewart and 2016, I don’t think at all it is fait accompli that he would go at pick 1 if they did that draft again. He is an intercept defender, a very good one but not as valuable as gun key forwards, midfielders or centre-forwards or probably rucks. He would be up near the top somewhere but so would Bolton, English, Taranto, McLuggage and probably Mitch Lewis on what has been shown so far with a few others like Luke Ryan and Ridley elevated a fair way as well. I think you are trying to confuse things introducing that draft. McGrath is a decent AFL player and if played in defence all the time like Stewart has also been shown a very good AFL player. Stewart is 30yo before next season starts, and he has won one B & F, and no other major awards. Beside his B & F win he has finished 3rd once and 6th once. I wouldn’t get too caught up in his 4 AA’s because those are judged subjectively by a large panel of people some of which would have nfi to be honest. Certainly this season Stewart's selection over Sicily was highly controversial, and imo, wrong. The Cats will probably end up getting about 6-7 strong seasons out of Stewart. I wouldn’t think this is what most people would be looking for in a pick one.

You cannot tell how valuable a mature age draftee is versus 18yo’s in his draft class until all their careers are finished. The mature aged guy will almost always get a better start. 25yo Luke Ball was drafted by Collingwood with pick 30 in the 2009 National Draft. He played in a Premiership the following year but from there his career petered out somewhat. Drafted after him were 18yo’s Max Gawn, David Astbury, Sam Reid, Taylor Duryea, Sam Jacobs, Liam Picken, Pearce Hanley who I would say all had better careers than Ball from the point of that draft onwards. But none of that would have been obvious in the early years, we have had to wait until much later to be able to draw a fair comparison.

 

[danster168]

That is all lovely Dan, but what is Rayner worth in a trade in this trade period? And how many of the other players from the 2017 draft are worth more and who are they?

You need to make up your mind about all the awards etc. Your first pick was Coaches Votes and Rayner beat your Melbourne players who you rate higher than him. So you have shifted to AA squad selection, presumably because Fritsch has achieved that and Rayner hasn’t. I am backing Rayner to have a better career than Fritsch, you are backing Fritsch. We will only know where that sits when their careers are done, and it could go either way. I would definitely take Rayner in Richmond’s team over Fritsch because he plays in a manner that will ultimately be more valuable imo, especially Rayner’s ability to win big contests, and crash packs, something Fritsch will never have in his game.

As for Tom Stewart and 2016, I don’t think at all it is fait accompli that he would go at pick 1 if they did that draft again. He is an intercept defender, a very good one but not as valuable as gun key forwards, midfielders or centre-forwards or probably rucks. He would be up near the top somewhere but so would Bolton, English, Taranto, McLuggage and probably Mitch Lewis on what has been shown so far with a few others like Luke Ryan and Ridley elevated a fair way as well. I think you are trying to confuse things introducing that draft. McGrath is a decent AFL player and if played in defence all the time like Stewart has also been shown a very good AFL player. Stewart is 30yo before next season starts, and he has won one B & F, and no other major awards. Beside his B & F win he has finished 3rd once and 6th once. I wouldn’t get too caught up in his 4 AA’s because those are judged subjectively by a large panel of people some of which would have nfi to be honest. Certainly this season Stewart's selection over Sicily was highly controversial, and imo, wrong. The Cats will probably end up getting about 6-7 strong seasons out of Stewart. I wouldn’t think this is what most people would be looking for in a pick one.

You cannot tell how valuable a mature age draftee is versus 18yo’s in his draft class until all their careers are finished. The mature aged guy will almost always get a better start. 25yo Luke Ball was drafted by Collingwood with pick 30 in the 2009 National Draft. He played in a Premiership the following year but from there his career petered out somewhat. Drafted after him were 18yo’s Max Gawn, David Astbury, Sam Reid, Taylor Duryea, Sam Jacobs, Liam Picken, Pearce Hanley who I would say all had better careers than Ball from the point of that draft onwards. But none of that would have been obvious in the early years, we have had to wait until much later to be able to draw a fair comparison.

Your first sentence again shows you don't understand. Trade value now? so you conveniently skip over the 4 poor years?

Let's look at it this way. There have been 4-5 All Australian or squad calibre players taken in the draft. For Rayner to break even, just break even, he would need to have 1 AA calibre season ('squad would be suffice). That's assuming none of the other players get a 2nd AA. He is miles off that.

If Rayner went for a trade, he'd probably get an early 2nd round pick. Say 19-22.

If all the AFL clubs had a crystal ball on 2017 draft night and saw that he was next to useless (injuries or otherwise) for the first 4 years I'd say he goes for about late 2nd round i.e 30-36. If recruiters knew that after 4 years he had shown an inability to make it as a forward or as a mid and would be stuck in a hybrid role getting 14 touches a game then i'm sorry but they aren't touching him until maybe 30.

Conversely if recruiters had a crystal ball and were told that Fritsch would be a back to back 50 goal/yr goal kicker, AA squad nominee and kick 6 goals in a granny, he's going early to mid first round (Pick 5-9).

Same can be said for many of the other gun players taken in the first round.

The ceiling that you're hoping and praying that rayner hits, is a level that many other players in his draft have already hit.