Cam Rayner

[bzparkes]

I hate this for you danster168 you’ve wasted invested so much time into this thread only to see Rayner dominate.

Haha? Danster wouldn't waste his time in a thread, only to be proven wrong mate...

 

[scott_the_man]

Rayner BOG last night, just such high impact per possession. That was a glimpse of the player he was drafted to be, just needs to do that more consistently.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Hey danster168, just wondering how you rated Rayner’s performance last night (asking for a friend)

 

[danster168]

Hey danster168, just wondering how you rated Rayner’s performance last night (asking for a friend)

he played well. a very good game.

 

[danster168]

Haha? Danster wouldn't waste his time in a thread, only to be proven wrong mate...

proven wrong? how so..? because he played a good game? just like Gary Rohan does once a season?

Didn't hear a peep from anyone in the first 3 rounds. Nor will I expect him to play another good game for some time going forward such is his lack of consistency. It doesn't take away from his good game though.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

he played well. a very good game.

danster168 being positive about Rayner, I thought I would never see the day

 

[danster168]

danster168 being positive about Rayner, I thought I would never see the day

I'm a very balanced analyser of the game If he plays well I'll acknowledge it I won't do a Meteoric Rise and try and downplay a guy kicking 6 in a granny lol

 

[bzparkes]

proven wrong? how so..? because he played a good game? just like Gary Rohan does once a season?

Didn't hear a peep from anyone in the first 3 rounds. Nor will I expect him to play another good game for some time going forward such is his lack of consistency. It doesn't take away from his good game though.

How'd those top 10 draft picks for Jackson go?

 

[danster168]

How'd those top 10 draft picks for Jackson go?

fair call. but wrong thread.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Gun

Remember it took Petracca about 5 years to become any good as well.

On Pixel 4a (5G) using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[M Malice]

No denying but Rayner is beginning to run out of time, no doubt his skill set is tantalising but he has so far failed to put together a forward career let alone midfield. Just wanted to jump in on the Fritsch bashing as the only thing that stops him being a far better pick than Rayner from here is a very large increase in Rayners performance.

Rayner is 23 years of age and has missed a season with an ACL, players can perform really well into their early to mid 30's, he has 7 + years in the game left... hardly running out of time Jordie.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Am I wrong in saying Cam has played 91 games and kicked more than 2 goals 7 times in his career?

Fritsch might have done it 19 times

You are not wrong in saying that. Possibly wrong for saying it.

Rayner has kicked 3 or more goals in 4 of his last 24 games as a forward or mid-forward. It would probably be fair to say this is his operative level, doing it once every 6 matches. Remember that his primary role for Brisbane is not to kick goals, Brisbane set up to get goals through Daniher and Cameron most.

Melbourne's principle 4 small forwards over recent seasons:

Neal-Bullen 3 times 3 or more goals in a 131 game career.

Charlie Spargo has done it once in an 86 game career.

Kozzy Pickett 13 times in a 63 game career.

Fritsch has 3 or more goals 30 times in a 111 game career.

Combined these 4 Demons non-key forwards have played 391 games and kicked 3 or more goals 47 times. Roughly once per 8 games on average. This is a slower rate than Rayner is producing since returning from an ACL as a 22yo.

Rayner's average age in that last 24 game sample is probably similar to the Melbourne quartet's average age from the sample I have used for them - ie their whole careers. Obviously with those Melbourne players the team sets up for Pickett and Fritsch to get a lot more shots at goal than Spargo and Neal-Bullen.

Rayner on Friday night was set up deep forward to kick goals. That doesn't happen that often. He got 4 goals 3 goal assists versus the Premiership favourite. None of those 4 principle Melbourne non-key forwards have ever got more goals + goal assists in any of their 391 combined matches. One of them has got as many - once.

Brisbane normally set up to get their goals through:

Daniher - 17 times 3 or more goals from 46 matches.

Cameron - 39 times in 106 matches.

Fritsch's role is much more similar to Charlie Cameron's role than it is to Rayner's. And he is nowhere near as good at it as Charlie Cameron.

 

[Arr0w]

Thought he was very good, playing where should, as a forward

Hope he continues with some stints in the middle to add some burst and grunt

 

[MisterMarcus]

danster168 being positive about Rayner, I thought I would never see the day

I mean, he immediately followed it with a massive backhander towards Rayner, so......

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I mean, he immediately followed it with a massive backhander towards Rayner, so......

People don’t change it seems

Anyhow, Happy Easter to you all and hope you have a nice long weekend as well

 

[jonnobackpocket]

I'm a very balanced analyser of the game If he plays well I'll acknowledge it I won't do a Meteoric Rise and try and downplay a guy kicking 6 in a granny lol

Balanced analyser- suggests Spargo is as good as Rayner. How does someone so balanced get s$&t so wrong, Rayner going to make you look even more stupid by the end of the year.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

You are not wrong in saying that. Possibly wrong for saying it.

Rayner has kicked 3 or more goals in 4 of his last 24 games as a forward or mid-forward. It would probably be fair to say this is his operative level, doing it once every 6 matches. Remember that his primary role for Brisbane is not to kick goals, Brisbane set up to get goals through Daniher and Cameron most.

Melbourne's principle 4 small forwards over recent seasons:

Neal-Bullen 3 times 3 or more goals in a 131 game career.

Charlie Spargo has done it once in an 86 game career.

Kozzy Pickett 13 times in a 63 game career.

Fritsch has 3 or more goals 30 times in a 111 game career.

Combined these 4 Demons non-key forwards have played 391 games and kicked 3 or more goals 47 times. Roughly once per 8 games on average. This is a slower rate than Rayner is producing since returning from an ACL as a 22yo.

Rayner's average age in that last 24 game sample is probably similar to the Melbourne quartet's average age from the sample I have used for them - ie their whole careers. Obviously with those Melbourne players the team sets up for Pickett and Fritsch to get a lot more shots at goal than Spargo and Neal-Bullen.

Rayner on Friday night was set up deep forward to kick goals. That doesn't happen that often. He got 4 goals 3 goal assists versus the Premiership favourite. None of those 4 principle Melbourne non-key forwards have ever got more goals + goal assists in any of their 391 combined matches. One of them has got as many - once.

Brisbane normally set up to get their goals through:

Daniher - 17 times 3 or more goals from 46 matches.

Cameron - 39 times in 106 matches.

Fritsch's role is much more similar to Charlie Cameron's role than it is to Rayner's. And he is nowhere near as good at it as Charlie Cameron.

So kicked more than 3 four times and more than 1 fives times?

Kicked no goals 10 times since the start of last year.

 

[CarterS]

He is not going to be the most consistent player but is winning games off his own boot for us. Great marking ability as we saw on the weekend and can also burst through a pack. Very happy that he keeps extending his contract up here because they've been trying for years to get him back to Vic and many didn't even want to draft him over those fears.

 

[paulige]

So kicked more than 3 four times and more than 1 fives times?

Kicked no goals 10 times since the start of last year.

Entered last year not having played for 18 months, kicked goals in 16 of 24 games played, while rotating through the middle at times.

Has kicked goals in 2 of 4 games this year, despite being primarily used as a defender in 3 of them.

I don’t think you’ve made the point you think you’re making.

 

[danster168]

Balanced analyser- suggests Spargo is as good as Rayner. How does someone so balanced get s$&t so wrong, Rayner going to make you look even more stupid by the end of the year.

spargo is better. he isn't a stats guy but has performed really well over a long period of time for a premiership team and has had a great start to 2023. He is a pressure forward something that Rayner doesn't do. Rayner should be better with his physical traits but he just is wildly inconsistent.

Rayner didn't make it as a forward, so they moved him into the middle where he also didn't make it. Then they moved him back where he did nothing and now after a good game he'll go forward again No-one ever questions his ceiling much like no-one ever questions Gary Rohan who looks like the greatest player in the afl when he is on but as we all know with Gary, that's like twice a year.

 

[danster168]

He is not going to be the most consistent player but is winning games off his own boot for us. Great marking ability as we saw on the weekend and can also burst through a pack. Very happy that he keeps extending his contract up here because they've been trying for years to get him back to Vic and many didn't even want to draft him over those fears.

winning games? he was doing nothing in rounds 1-3? and did nothing last year outside of a few good games.

As a forward, he'll average his standard 14 touches and a goal with the odd game where he kicks 3 or 4.

 

[Tom14]

Entered last year not having played for 18 months, kicked goals in 16 of 24 games played, while rotating through the middle at times.

Has kicked goals in 2 of 4 games this year, despite being primarily used as a defender in 3 of them.

I don’t think you’ve made the point you think you’re making.

If you take it back to late last year he has two games of 4 goals in his last 5 games as a forward (match winning game v Saints and thursday). He was our best and cleanest player agains the cats in the prelim until he got injured and had to be subbed out, and was basically the only player that could cope with the heat. The saints game is a bit underrated, kicked 4 from 18 touches but missed a couple of other shots so it could have been a bigger night.

I have no clue what the Coach was thinking moving him down back.

 

[danster168]

If you take it back to late last year he has two games of 4 goals in his last 5 games as a forward (match winning game v Saints and thursday). He was our best and cleanest player agains the cats in the prelim until he got injured and had to be subbed out, and was basically the only player that could cope with the heat. The saints game is a bit underrated, kicked 4 from 18 touches but missed a couple of other shots so it could have been a bigger night.

I have no clue what the Coach was thinking moving him down back.

no-one is questioning his upside. At his best, he looks great. Amazing. But Gary Rohan is exactly the same. Kicked 3 amazing goals in the Qualifying final including the match winning goal after doing not much all year.

The coach put Rayner back to find more of the ball.

 

[scott_the_man]

spargo is better. he isn't a stats guy but has performed really well over a long period of time for a premiership team and has had a great start to 2023. He is a pressure forward something that Rayner doesn't do. Rayner should be better with his physical traits but he just is wildly inconsistent.

Rayner didn't make it as a forward, so they moved him into the middle where he also didn't make it. Then they moved him back where he did nothing and now after a good game he'll go forward again No-one ever questions his ceiling much like no-one ever questions Gary Rohan who looks like the greatest player in the afl when he is on but as we all know with Gary, that's like twice a year.

In the first 10 minutes of the game against the pies Rayner showed more ability than Spargo has displayed in his entire career. Yes he is inconsistent, but he has some freakish traits that can win games. I'd take 10 Rayner possessions over 20 Spargo possessions every day of the week.

I'd be very surprised if any neutrals would take Spargo over Rayner.

 

[danster168]

In the first 10 minutes of the game against the pies Rayner showed more ability than Spargo has displayed in his entire career. Yes he is inconsistent, but he has some freakish traits that can win games. I'd take 10 Rayner possessions over 20 Spargo possessions every day of the week.

I'd be very surprised if any neutrals would take Spargo over Rayner.

You just described Gary Rohan...