Cam Rayner

[Miller1971]

I think you missed the joke.

He went back in the last 90 seconds of the 1st quarter, took a mark and then either made the dumbest decision ever with his kick, or just shanked it off the side of his boot. Take your pick out of those 2 options, but it lead directly to the De Goey goal, when all he needed to do was get the ball boundary side of wing and the siren goes.

It was an absolute coach killer.

 

[Nunez]

Finished 5th in the Lions B&F - great result. Played his role well this year. The challenge Cam faces is his fitness. If he gets fitter to the point he can spend genuine time on the ball, he will get many opportunities to impact games and will take a big step forward as a player.

 

[Miller1971]

I watched a fair bit of the Lions this year and if he had a better year than Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

31

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

and Joe Daniher, then I was watching a different bloke.

The only explanation is they are bumping his trade value, or avoiding Top 5 bonus clauses for Charlie and Joe!

 

[Dazb86]

I watched a fair bit of the Lions this year and if he had a better year than Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher, then I was watching a different bloke.

The only explanation is they are bumping his trade value, or avoiding Top 5 bonus clauses for Charlie and Joe!

Club BnF's can throw up some odd results. Tim English wasn't in our top 5 this year

 

[Daniel_Rich]

Finished 5th in the Lions B&F - great result. Played his role well this year. The challenge Cam faces is his fitness. If he gets fitter to the point he can spend genuine time on the ball, he will get many opportunities to impact games and will take a big step forward as a player.

How did he manage that? I have it on good authority he only played 3 good games this year.

 

[Happy_Neale]

How did he manage that? I have it on good authority he only played 3 good games this year.

Nah man he's a total failure didn't you hear. We actually made the Grand Final in spite of him playing every game.

 

[Happy_Neale]

I watched a fair bit of the Lions this year and if he had a better year than Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher, then I was watching a different bloke.

The only explanation is they are bumping his trade value, or avoiding Top 5 bonus clauses for Charlie and Joe!

Yes that is the only possible explanation.

 

[Nunez]

I watched a fair bit of the Lions this year and if he had a better year than Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher, then I was watching a different bloke.

The only explanation is they are bumping his trade value, or avoiding Top 5 bonus clauses for Charlie and Joe!

I don't think you understand how B&F voting works. Very much about structure and role playing more than BoG performances.

 

[augie]

I don't think you understand how B&F voting works. Very much about structure and role playing more than BoG performances.

Weird result regardless. 3 votes less than Dunkley, who I would have thought would be high on the structure and role playing measure and had a substantially better year.

 

[Old navy]

He was our +1 in defence for a short period, we have been doing this all year. He is a decent intercept mark/crash pack when we want to slow the game down (usually in red time).

Playing him in that role is probably a good thing for he’s overall development, but this is a grand final, development could have waited
From what I’ve seen of Rayner he’s best games have been as that medium forward, he’s one of those players that has the potential to be a match winner, in the second half is when the goal scoring dried up, he should of been moved into the forward line, he could of given the forward line a different dynamic and some more fire power up forward.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

danster168 apoplectic that Rayner finished higher in the B & F count in a Grand Final team than Fritsch ever has.

 

[Mr Meow]

yeah, eventually he will play well in a big game. As did Gary Rohan who eventually played well.

He was the Leon Davis medallist tonight.

Rohan has had bad a bunch of poor finals but he's also kicked multiple goals in 7 of them (in 5 of those 7 he had at least one goal assist as well - so 3+ goals/assists) and had another with 20+ disposals and 2 goal assists. He gets a moderate to strong tick for those 8 games, not only the starring 2022 QF. In fact he's got a pretty good record overall in week 1 and 3 of finals, but a terrible record in weeks 2 and 4.

Rayner is early on (effectively 1/3 as many finals as Rohan) has so far only had one such game, the 2023 QF. It's worth noting that the majority of players go their entire career without playing a memorable or match winning final.

 

[Miller1971]

I don't think you understand how B&F voting works. Very much about structure and role playing more than BoG performances.

I'm well aware how it works, but thats a massive call that Rayner played 'his role' better than Charlie Cameron or Joe Daniher.

 

[Nunez]

I'm well aware how it works, but thats a massive call that Rayner played 'his role' better than Charlie Cameron or Joe Daniher.

According to the coaches B&F votes, he did.

 

[Mr Meow]

According to the coaches B&F votes, he did.

It's not the only measure though. The BnF voting was incredibly tight - 4 votes between 5th and 10th. That's close enough that I'd absolutely be looking for tie breakers.

Rayner: 14 coaches votes
Daniher: 48 coaches votes
Cameron: 34 coaches votes
Dunkley: 51 coaches votes

Big discrepancies there (close to 300% for Dunkley!). Then Cameron was elite for goals (+AA) and Daniher/Dunkley considered elite/close to elite in the league for role (CHF, defensive midfielder). They all made the AA squad. Put that together and all were comfortably ahead of Rayner.

 

[Daniel_Rich]

It's not the only measure though. The BnF voting was incredibly tight - 4 votes between 5th and 10th. That's close enough that I'd absolutely be looking for tie breakers.

Rayner: 14 coaches votes
Daniher: 48 coaches votes
Cameron: 34 coaches votes
Dunkley: 51 coaches votes

Big discrepancies there (close to 300% for Dunkley!). Then Cameron was elite for goals (+AA) and Daniher/Dunkley considered elite/close to elite in the league for role (CHF, defensive midfielder). They all made the AA squad. Put that together and all were comfortably ahead of Rayner.

That's a fair point, but the thread is about Rayner supposedly being a failed pick (despite being 23 and having missed a whole year with an ACL) and now we're debating whether he was narrowly better or worse than Daniher, Cameron, and Dunkley in a year when his team made the Grand Final.

Bit awkward.

 

[Mr Meow]

That's a fair point, but the thread is about Rayner supposedly being a failed pick (despite being 23 and having missed a whole year with an ACL) and now we're debating whether he was narrowly better or worse than Daniher, Cameron, and Dunkley in a year when his team made the Grand Final.

Bit awkward.

Cause he was pick 1, right? Always more pressure and attention. And few number 1s become truly elite relative to that hype.

Once you go through categories and stats methodically (BnF, coaches votes, Brownlow votes, key statistics central to role - compared to league) I reckon he'd come out more around Big O, right? It's only if we look at BnF alone that we could say otherwise. For Geelong Z.Guthrie finished higher than Dangerfield, Cameron, Hawkins and Blicavs this year.

From watching Brisbane, Bailey and Coleman looked unlucky to me (to not be top 10 BnF) but Rayner is probably in that ball park of players. Not Daniher, Cameron, Dunkley and Neale. Just my two cents though.

 

[Daniel_Rich]

Cause he was pick 1, right? Always more pressure and attention. And few number 1s become truly elite relative to that hype.

Once you go through categories and stats methodically (BnF, coaches votes, Brownlow votes, key statistics central to role - compared to league) I reckon he'd come out more around Big O, right? It's only if we look at BnF alone that we could say otherwise. For Geelong Z.Guthrie finished higher than Dangerfield, Cameron, Hawkins and Blicavs this year.

From watching Brisbane, Bailey and Coleman looked unlucky to me (to not be top 10 BnF) but Rayner is probably in that ball park of players. Not Daniher, Cameron, Dunkley and Neale. Just my two cents though.

People are super high on Coleman right now because he crushed the finals series but him not polling well in the B&F isn't that surprising. He missed rounds 2, 21, and 22 as well as being subbed on in round 8 and off in round 13. Before the bye he only had one game with 20+ touches (Rich played 7 games in this period) compared to seven after the bye.

 

[Partridge]

yeah, eventually he will play well in a big game. As did Gary Rohan who eventually played well.

He was the Leon Davis medallist tonight.

Once.

And never in a Grand final.

 

[Partridge]

Yeah, he's now in the something to prove club and unfortunately for him, needs to do it in a premiership. He was awful today.

Never thought anyone would challenge Heeney in the "most overrated" stakes but he's getting there rapidly.

All he needs is Luke Darcy to call him a Rolls-Royce and the torch will have been well and truly passed.

 

[Mr Meow]

People are super high on Coleman right now because he crushed the finals series but him not polling well in the B&F isn't that surprising. He missed rounds 2, 21, and 22 as well as being subbed on in round 8 and off in round 13. Before the bye he only had one game with 20+ touches (Rich played 7 games in this period) compared to seven after the bye.

Yeah fair enough. I watched a fair chunk of Brisbane games but would defer to your judgement regarding consistency.

20 goals and 16 assists is a solid return for a forward who pushes up the ground, although you'd probably want him to get a bit more of the ball. We were in a similar situation with Brad Close this season. They're the types of players that really round out a potent forwardline though without getting a whole lot of recognition.

 

[augie]

That's a fair point, but the thread is about Rayner supposedly being a failed pick (despite being 23 and having missed a whole year with an ACL) and now we're debating whether he was narrowly better or worse than Daniher, Cameron, and Dunkley in a year when his team made the Grand Final.

Bit awkward.

Not sure anyone is debating whether he was narrowly better or worse than Daniher, Cameron and Dunkley. I think we all agree that he was much, much worse than those 3.

I don't think he is a failed pick, but he certainly isn't a good pick 1 at the moment.

 

[Daniel_Rich]

Not sure anyone is debating whether he was narrowly better or worse than Daniher, Cameron and Dunkley. I think we all agree that he was much, much worse than those 3.

I don't think he is a failed pick, but he certainly isn't a good pick 1 at the moment.

It appears that some BigFooty posters agree on that, while the coaches of the Brisbane Lions disagree.

I wonder who we should listen to?

 

[danster168]

Dunkley on the way to the Lions. I guess another year of 13 possessions, 1 goal per game in the half forward line for Rayner next year.

Date of the above statemement: September, 2022

He ended up with 14.2 possessions and 0.9 goals per game. The question is, how successfully can I predict his average-ness in 2024? Should I go to 1 or 2 decimal places this year?

Here it is: I believe he will average 15.17 possessions and 1.2 goals per game. What a break out

 

[augie]

It appears that some BigFooty posters agree on that, while the coaches of the Brisbane Lions disagree.

I wonder who we should listen to?

Do you believe he was slightly better or worse than those 3?