Cam Rayner

[adammania9]

Some players who have kicked between 40 and 50 goals in a season, which Mihocek has done twice(47, 41) or more....

2023: King, Henry, Amiss, Hipwood, and Langford got 51.

2022: Riewoldt(turned 34yo that year) Ginnivan(traded for a low pick) Chol(ditto) Marshall, Heeney, Bolton(playing mainly midfield) Peter Wright kicked 53, and Stengle a DFA kicked 53

2021: Bruce, Larkey

2019: Membrey, Finlayson & Sexton from GCS got 39, Sam Lloyd 38

2018: Caddy, Jenkins, Hoskin-Elliott and Tom McDonald got 53 & Josh Thomas + Stephenson(first year) 38

2017: Dangerfield(midfielder) Patton, Garlett, Hooker, Menzel

2016: Membrey, 33yo S Johnson, N Riewoldt(in the year he turned 34) Tory Dickson & Jenkins got 62 and Jack Watts 38, Aaron Young 37.

2015: Pavlich(in the year he turned 34) Josh Hill, Garlett, Waite, Petrie, Hogan(20yo) Tippett, Lecras, Jenkins, and Bruce and Tory Dickson got 50

There is a whole lot of either developing or cooked quality players in there or players who were traded for low picks or delisted soon after. So kicking 40+ goals in a season doesn't seem to signify high value, you mainly get these guys for a late second or third round pick in a trade. And it must be remembered, Mihocek has only achieved this twice in his 6 seasons with a next best of 36.

Congratulations. You have listed dozens of players that also would have played in every side of the competition. Much like Mihocek.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Congratulations. You have listed dozens of players that also would have played in every side of the competition. Much like Mihocek.

Ok so every player who trades for a 3rd round pick would automatically get a game in every team in the comp?


Loads of them were delisted within a small amount of seasons. But you know, teams were falling over themselves to sign Jack Watts and Aaron Young after these huge goal kicking seasons.

Kicking x goals is proof of not much these days because the role of a forward is much broader than just how many goals he kicks.

 

[adammania9]

Ok so every player who trades for a 3rd round pick would automatically get a game in every team in the comp?


Loads of them were delisted within a small amount of seasons. But you know, teams were falling over themselves to sign Jack Watts and Aaron Young after these huge goal kicking seasons.

Kicking x goals is proof of not much these days because the role of a forward is much broader than just how many goals he kicks.

I'll give you some help. Chol and Ginnivan weren't relegated to the VFL and traded whilst kicking 40 goals seasons. If Mihocek churns out 12 goals next year then I'll agree he wouldn't play in every side in the competition.

Is the bar 40 goals or not? Jack Watts and Aaron Young never kicked that many in a year. You're shifting the goalposts every 4 seconds

 

[Miller1971]

What is probably more relevant is that Mihocek has been leading goalkicker 6 seasons in a row for a team that has been R/Up, Lost 2 x Prelims by a point, Lost a Second Semi and won a Premiership. So they've been in the best 4 sides in 4 out of those 6 seasons and 5th in the 5th season.

Obviously the role he plays is different to a traditional key forward, both due to the type of player he is, and the system Collingwood uses.

In fact, nobody has kicked 50 goals for the pies in a season for a decade.

 

[Dazb86]

Would you take Mihocek or Rayner if you could.

 

[Miller1971]

I'd take Rayner cause he is 24 and Mihocek is 31.

If i had to pick between them for a Grand Final next week, I'm taking Mihocek easily.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'd take Rayner cause he is 24 and Mihocek is 31.

If i had to pick between them for a Grand Final next week, I'm taking Mihocek easily.

Mihocek finals record from 14 matches all as a fully mature player averages:

• 10 disposals
• 4.5 contested possessions
• 1 contested mark
• 2.4 tackles
• 1.5 goals + assists
• 1.2 1%ers

That doesn't sound like someone I'd be taking "easily" over anybody to play in a Grand Final next week.

In comparison, Rayner playing 9 finals, 4 of which were in his first 3 years out of his draft year averages:

• 10 disposals
• 1.1 goals + assists
• 4.6 contested possessions
• 0.25 contested marks
• 1.9 tackles
• 0.45 1%ers

Rayner in my view was a bit disappointing in the 2023 finals series, especially the GF, but Mihocek has barely done more than Rayner in finals and about half of Rayner's sample was when he was 19 and 20 years of age.

 

[Dazb86]

Mihocek finals record from 14 matches all as a fully mature player averages:

• 10 disposals
• 4.5 contested possessions
• 1 contested mark
• 2.4 tackles
• 1.5 goals + assists
• 1.2 1%ers

That doesn't sound like someone I'd be taking "easily" over anybody to play in a Grand Final next week.

In comparison, Rayner playing 9 finals, 4 of which were in his first 3 years out of his draft year averages:

• 10 disposals
• 1.1 goals + assists
• 4.6 contested possessions
• 0.25 contested marks
• 1.9 tackles
• 0.45 1%ers

Rayner in my view was a bit disappointing in the 2023 finals series, especially the GF, but Mihocek has barely done more than Rayner in finals and about half of Rayner's sample was when he was 19 and 20 years of age.

How does Tory Dickson rate?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How does Tory Dickson rate?

Basically way above Mihocek for all bar contested possessions, contested marks and 1%ers.

 

[iBeng]

Look we need Dansters opinion on the above or its all moot anyway.

And he'll tell you he'd kill Rayner, Shag Mihocek and Marry the Daicos kids.

 

[augie]

Mihocek finals record from 14 matches all as a fully mature player averages:

• 10 disposals
• 4.5 contested possessions
• 1 contested mark
• 2.4 tackles
• 1.5 goals + assists
• 1.2 1%ers

That doesn't sound like someone I'd be taking "easily" over anybody to play in a Grand Final next week.

In comparison, Rayner playing 9 finals, 4 of which were in his first 3 years out of his draft year averages:

• 10 disposals
• 1.1 goals + assists
• 4.6 contested possessions
• 0.25 contested marks
• 1.9 tackles
• 0.45 1%ers

Rayner in my view was a bit disappointing in the 2023 finals series, especially the GF, but Mihocek has barely done more than Rayner in finals and about half of Rayner's sample was when he was 19 and 20 years of age.

Problem for Rayner in the numbers, which is consistent with his broader challenge, is that he doesn't seem to be getting any better. It is not like his first 4 finals in his first 3 years were worse than his last 5 in the past 2 years. He was actually better in his earlier games.

Needs to turn things around significantly this year. It's later than he thinks.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Problem for Rayner in the numbers, which is consistent with his broader challenge, is that he doesn't seem to be getting any better. It is not like his first 4 finals in his first 3 years were worse than his last 5 in the past 2 years. He was actually better in his earlier games.

Needs to turn things around significantly this year. It's later than he thinks.

Rayner was definitely showing encouraging signs in his first 4 finals esp the improvement in his second year of finals v his first.

His 5 finals in the last 2 years have been made up of 4 quite poor ones, and 1 in 2023 where he was very good, adjudged 3rd bog by the coaches. He will need to lift, but a top 5 B & F finish tells us his coaches are approving of what he is producing. Rayner is so far tracking a mile below Dustin Martin to the same point in his career, but it must be remembered Martin was not the finals legend version until his 8th season onwards.

I have lowered my outlook for Rayner a little, but for me I still think he will prove to be worthy of a first round pick over the long haul. And it still won't shock me if he proves to be a terrific big game player. What worries me slightly is his final 2 games of 2023, the PF and GF, there were some errors that he needs to eradicate from his game to fulfil his potential.

 

[danster168]

Meteoric Rise Cubs2Lions Nunez bzparkes rye jonnobackpocket

The season is nearly here. Give me your predictions for Rayners season.

• Average disposals
• Goals per game
• Coaches votes for the year or Brownlow votes for the year.

I'll say 14.8 possessions, 1.1 goals per game, 2 Brownlow votes, 15 coaches votes.

 

[rye]

Meteoric Rise Cubs2Lions Nunez bzparkes rye jonnobackpocket

The season is nearly here. Give me your predictions for Rayners season.

• Average disposals
• Goals per game
• Coaches votes for the year or Brownlow votes for the year.

I'll say 14.8 possessions, 1.1 goals per game, 2 Brownlow votes, 15 coaches votes.

tagging me on a weekday midnight to discuss rayner and its only february

im sensing a big season ahead for the cam rayner thread

 

[danster168]

tagging me on a weekday midnight to discuss rayner and its only february

im sensing a big season ahead for the cam rayner thread

not game enough to put down a prediction?

 

[bzparkes]

Meteoric Rise Cubs2Lions Nunez bzparkes rye jonnobackpocket

Give me your predictions for Rayners season.

Why?

 

[danster168]

Why?

why not? Last season he played a good game in April, you told me Rayner had arrived. He hadn't and we're still waiting for the Rayner breakout. So assuming there are no more excuses are people willing to hang their hat on what stats he'll put up.

 

[bzparkes]

why not? Last season he played a good game in April, you told me Rayner had arrived.

Did I?

 

[danster168]

Did I?

Haha? Danster wouldn't waste his time in a thread, only to be proven wrong mate...

yep. this was immediately after his good game way back in April, only for him to be predictably a flash in the pan the rest of the season. Fair to say, Rayner proved you wrong in 2023. Anyway, let's get back to what you think Rayner will do this year.

 

[Nunez]

Meteoric Rise Cubs2Lions Nunez bzparkes rye jonnobackpocket

The season is nearly here. Give me your predictions for Rayners season.

• Average disposals
• Goals per game
• Coaches votes for the year or Brownlow votes for the year.

I'll say 14.8 possessions, 1.1 goals per game, 2 Brownlow votes, 15 coaches votes.

I'll go 16.6 posessions, 1.7 goals per game, 14 Brownlow votes, 18 coaches votes + AA Squad.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Meteoric Rise Cubs2Lions Nunez bzparkes rye jonnobackpocket

The season is nearly here. Give me your predictions for Rayners season.

• Average disposals
• Goals per game
• Coaches votes for the year or Brownlow votes for the year.

I'll say 14.8 possessions, 1.1 goals per game, 2 Brownlow votes, 15 coaches votes.

Feels like danster168 is becoming more of a Lions supporter these days

I’ll guess 15.9 possessions, 1.5 goals, 10 Brownlow votes and 23 Coaches Votes + AA Top 40 squad.

 

[M Malice]

22 possessions, 2 goals, Brownlow runner up, 30 coaches votes, AA team, B&F winner, goal and mark of the year. + Australian of the Year.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Meteoric Rise Cubs2Lions Nunez bzparkes rye jonnobackpocket

The season is nearly here. Give me your predictions for Rayners season.

• Average disposals
• Goals per game
• Coaches votes for the year or Brownlow votes for the year.

I'll say 14.8 possessions, 1.1 goals per game, 2 Brownlow votes, 15 coaches votes.

My prediction is he will have a better year than that Clinton Fargo or whatever his name is from Melbourne and you will post utter shit and make irrelevant incorrect comparisons.

 

[danster168]

My prediction is he will have a better year than that Clinton Fargo or whatever his name is from Melbourne and you will post utter s**t and make irrelevant incorrect comparisons.

provide some numbers.

There has been no irrelevant comparisons. In fact most of the convo has been about where Rayner has been ranked in his own draft. Couldn't get more relevant than that.

 

[mighty_lions]

provide some numbers.

There has been no irrelevant comparisons. In fact most of the convo has been about where Rayner has been ranked in his own draft. Couldn't get more relevant than that.

I predict cam will still be playing and clarry may not be