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Cam Rayner

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danster168 said:
clearly playing injured and without a pre-season. remarkable that he is even playing. He'll be better after his hand surgery the other day.
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It was honestly a shocking decision to play him. But to put him in the back pocket. Better hiding him in the forward line I would of thought.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Spuds don't finish top 5 B & F in GF teams Dan...Barely AvFritsch can't even get a top 10 B & F finish in a top team.
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Dude, you're embarassing yourself. Remember when you said that kicking 6 in a granny was easy 😄 🤣
the AA squad speaks for itself. my biggest win on bigfooty was when the AA squad selectors announced Fritsch as elite. if it wasn't already obvious enough.
 

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Mr Meow said:
Martin didn't finish top 5 in the 2019 Richmond B&F.

Rayner 2023 > Martin 2019 confirmed.
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Errr....in 2019 Dusty won the Norm Smith max votes, The Ayres Medal, a Premiership, got more goals than the whole opposition team in the Grand Final and kicked or assisted 30% of all goals in the Grand Final scored by both teams. He also kicked or assisted 15 goals in the 2019 finals series, whilst Richmond's 3 opposition teams between them mustered only 20 goals. He was also the 4th best player across the whole season according to average player ratings. He also finished 12th in the Coaches votes in the regular season, and 4th for average coaches votes for the whole season. And he finished 6th in the Brownlow Medal before going on to be the player of the final series. Dusty finished 6th in the Richmond B & F but all players who finished above him played more matches. He also made the AA squad, and should have made the final team.

So what was your point in bringing up Dusty's 2019 season? :)
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Errr....in 2019 Dusty won the Norm Smith max votes, The Ayres Medal, a Premiership, got more goals than the whole opposition team in the Grand Final and kicked or assisted 30% of all goals in the Grand Final scored by both teams. He also kicked or assisted 15 goals in the 2019 finals series, whilst Richmond's 3 opposition teams between them mustered only 20 goals. He was also the 4th best player across the whole season according to average player ratings. He also finished 12th in the Coaches votes in the regular season, and 4th for average coaches votes for the whole season. And he finished 6th in the Brownlow Medal before going on to be the player of the final series. Dusty finished 6th in the Richmond B & F but all players who finished above him played more matches. He also made the AA squad, and should have made the final team.

So what was your point in bringing up Dusty's 2019 season? :)
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But but but no top 5 in the B&F. THIS is your new marker of excellence, as per Rayner 2023.

Now apply the rest of your criteria to Rayner. Finals performances, coaches votes, Brownlow votes etc. All of a sudden the stuff you are trumpeting doesn't seem so important, and the top 5 in the B&F seems to be the hill you want to die on.

You won't do your own research so here it is for you: 31 career coaches votes, surely about to spike to nearly 40. So coaches wise, Thursday night represents about a quarter of Rayner's really high quality, match influencing performances.

As a potential superstar midfielder/forward in his 6th season, that is low output. Could easily change though, hopefully Thursday was a platform to launch off.
 
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Mr Meow said:
But but but no top 5 in the B&F. THIS is your new marker of excellence, as per Rayner 2023.

Now apply the rest of your criteria to Rayner. Finals performances, coaches votes, Brownlow votes etc. All of a sudden the stuff you are trumpeting doesn't seem so important, and the top 5 in the B&F seems to be the hill you want to die on.

You won't do your own research so here it is for you: 31 career coaches votes, surely about to spike to nearly 40. So coaches wise, Thursday night represents about a quarter of Rayner's really high quality, match influencing performances.

As a potential superstar midfielder/forward in his 6th season, that is low output. Could easily change though, hopefully Thursday was a platform to launch off.
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Hang on, have I got this right? You are claiming Rayner is no good because Dusty finished 6th in Richmond's B & F one year?

Weird slant on things Meow.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Hang on, have I got this right? You are claiming Rayner is no good because Dusty finished 6th in Richmond's B & F one year?

Weird slant on things Meow.
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No, I'm wondering why you have spent a lot of time arguing that Dusty not finishing top 5 in a B&F was irrelevant.

Yet finishing top 5 in a B&F is your main line of evidence for Rayner having a strong 2023.

So B&F placements can or can not be important depending on what your preset agenda was?
 
Mr Meow said:
No, I'm wondering why you have spent a lot of time arguing that Dusty not finishing top 5 in a B&F was irrelevant.

Yet finishing top 5 in a B&F is your main line of evidence for Rayner having a strong 2023.

So B&F placements can or can not be important depending on what your preset agenda was?
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There is no shift on this from me. The reasons I have downplayed the importance of the club B & F finish in Martin's case and highlighted its importance in the Rayner case are two-fold:

1. What is being argued in either case. It is you who has the blind spot on this, not me. You and others were seeking to devalue Dusty's 2019 season due to him not finishing top 5 B & F, as you desperately grasped for anything you could locate that you thought was a chink in his armour for being considered the best player in the game 2017-2020 inclusive. He finished 6th in the Richmond B & F, only behind players who had played more matches. When we list what Martin did in 2019, including being Richmond's top player in AFL wide coaches votes and 4th for average coaches votes overall, high Brownlow finish, 4th in AFL wide average player ratings, winning Norm Smith and Ayres Medals, etc etc, we can see how ludicrous your arguments was. In Rayner's case what is being argued by danster168 is that he was rubbish in 2023. Clearly he wasn't rubbish if he finished 5th in the B & F of a team who almost won the flag. Even of the cohort of Brisbane players that played every match he finished 3rd of 9. Even if he was say 7th-8th for average votes per game, this defeats Danster's argument, wouldn't you agree? It is not like I am saying "top 5" B & F voting is totally irrelevant in the Martin 2019 case, or that is the be all and end in the Rayner 2023 case. I didn't need to say either of those things to defeat the arguments that were being put.

2. The way the Richmond B & F in particular is voted recognises more so how many times a player did his job rather than who the best player was. The effect of this is a player may get maximum 5 votes for being 12th best player on the ground against the wooden spooner in May, where a player like Dusty only gets the same 5 votes for being clear BOG in an away final and then a Grand Final. Nobody was ever in any doubt as to who Richmond's best and most valuable player was. The Brisbane B & F may now work similarly, and this may be what allowed Rayner to finish so high in the count(though it must be noted, the coaches voted him 3rd BOG in the Qualifying Final.) But Rayner's 5th B & F finish in a strong side is absolute proof his season was not rubbish. It would be about as legitimate to say Kane Lambert 7th or Bachar Houli 8th in the Richmond 2019 B & F is not evidence for them having very decent seasons.

I think more clubs are moving towards this B & F model of rewarding players for compliance to team values etc rather than simply recognising who the best player is in the traditional sense. So Butters won the Coaches MVP in 2023 but not his club's B & F, which went to Rozee. Josh Daicos won his Club's B & F but was nowhere near his brother nick in Brownlow or Coaches MVP voting. It goes on and on.

You need to nail your colours to the mast on this. After trying to use Dusty's surprisingly modest amount of B & F to discredit him, you are now seemingly supporting a view that finishing top 5 in the B & F for a Grand Final team does not mean Rayner wasn't rubbish in 2023. Or do I have that wrong, and you think it does prove what Danster is saying about Rayner's 2023 season is wrong?
 
Meteoric Rise said:
There is no shift on this from me. The reasons I have downplayed the importance of the club B & F finish in Martin's case and highlighted its importance in the Rayner case are two-fold:

1. What is being argued in either case. It is you who has the blind spot on this, not me. You and others were seeking to devalue Dusty's 2019 season due to him not finishing top 5 B & F, as you desperately grasped for anything you could locate that you thought was a chink in his armour for being considered the best player in the game 2017-2020 inclusive. He finished 6th in the Richmond B & F, only behind players who had played more matches. When we list what Martin did in 2019, including being Richmond's top player in AFL wide coaches votes and 4th for average coaches votes overall, high Brownlow finish, 4th in AFL wide average player ratings, winning Norm Smith and Ayres Medals, etc etc, we can see how ludicrous your arguments was. In Rayner's case what is being argued by danster168 is that he was rubbish in 2023. Clearly he wasn't rubbish if he finished 5th in the B & F of a team who almost won the flag. Even of the cohort of Brisbane players that played every match he finished 3rd of 9. Even if he was say 7th-8th for average votes per game, this defeats Danster's argument, wouldn't you agree? It is not like I am saying "top 5" B & F voting is totally irrelevant in the Martin 2019 case, or that is the be all and end in the Rayner 2023 case. I didn't need to say either of those things to defeat the arguments that were being put.

2. The way the Richmond B & F in particular is voted recognises more so how many times a player did his job rather than who the best player was. The effect of this is a player may get maximum 5 votes for being 12th best player on the ground against the wooden spooner in May, where a player like Dusty only gets the same 5 votes for being clear BOG in an away final and then a Grand Final. Nobody was ever in any doubt as to who Richmond's best and most valuable player was. The Brisbane B & F may now work similarly, and this may be what allowed Rayner to finish so high in the count(though it must be noted, the coaches voted him 3rd BOG in the Qualifying Final.) But Rayner's 5th B & F finish in a strong side is absolute proof his season was not rubbish. It would be about as legitimate to say Kane Lambert 7th or Bachar Houli 8th in the Richmond 2019 B & F is not evidence for them having very decent seasons.

I think more clubs are moving towards this B & F model of rewarding players for compliance to team values etc rather than simply recognising who the best player is in the traditional sense. So Butters won the Coaches MVP in 2023 but not his club's B & F, which went to Rozee. Josh Daicos won his Club's B & F but was nowhere near his brother nick in Brownlow or Coaches MVP voting. It goes on and on.

You need to nail your colours to the mast on this. After trying to use Dusty's surprisingly modest amount of B & F to discredit him, you are now seemingly supporting a view that finishing top 5 in the B & F for a Grand Final team does not mean Rayner wasn't rubbish in 2023. Or do I have that wrong, and you think it does prove what Danster is saying about Rayner's 2023 season is wrong?
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lol, why am I being tagged in this. I'll redefine. If Rayner finished 5th in the BnF than 29 other players in his draft year alone would've also finished 5th or higher. Unfortunately for Rayner, his draft year was one of the deepest drafts in a decade. So his 2023 wasn't rubbish but it was a season that the majority of his draft year would've outperformed.

Charlie Cameron and Daniher is worse than Rayner according to the results. Darcy Wilmot > Zac Bailey. it's a flawed award. Wilmot is a good young player don't get me wrong but Bailey is a gun. Wilmot is better than Rayner.
 
danster168 said:
lol, why am I being tagged in this. I'll redefine. If Rayner finished 5th in the BnF than 29 other players in his draft year alone would've also finished 5th or higher. Unfortunately for Rayner, his draft year was one of the deepest drafts in a decade. So his 2023 wasn't rubbish but it was a season that the majority of his draft year would've outperformed.

Charlie Cameron and Daniher is worse than Rayner according to the results. Darcy Wilmot > Zac Bailey. it's a flawed award. Wilmot is a good young player don't get me wrong but Bailey is a gun. Wilmot is better than Rayner.
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I tagged you because you claimed Rayner was a spud last year. And you haven't resiled from that claim Dan. So you need to own it until you renounce it. He clearly was not a spud if he finished 5th in the B & F of a team who almost won the flag. We know these awards now often reward valuable player actions that were previously overlooked. But they don't reward spuds who don't make a positive contribution.

You would do better to just put your hands up and admit you had it wrong, Rayner was not a spud in 2023, and his high B & F finish is all the evidence required to confirm that.
 

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Meteoric Rise said:
I tagged you because you claimed Rayner was a spud last year. And you haven't resiled from that claim Dan. So you need to own it until you renounce it. He clearly was not a spud if he finished 5th in the B & F of a team who almost won the flag. We know these awards now often reward valuable player actions that were previously overlooked. But they don't reward spuds who don't make a positive contribution.

You would do better to just put your hands up and admit you had it wrong, Rayner was not a spud in 2023, and his high B & F finish is all the evidence required to confirm that.
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Surely you're not going to have the audacity to get hung up on semantics when you call an AA squad member 'average'. If he is average than Rayner is absolutely a spud. You can't have it both ways.

I'll say Rayner wasn't a spud when you acknowledge that Fritsch is one of the best forwards in the league. key forwards or otherwise.
 
danster168 said:
Surely you're not going to have the audacity to get hung up on semantics when you call an AA squad member 'average'. If he is average than Rayner is absolutely a spud. You can't have it both ways.

I'll say Rayner wasn't a spud when you acknowledge that Fritsch is one of the best forwards in the league. key forwards or otherwise.
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Barely Avfritsch is a play on words Danster. It is not my fault Bayley Fritsch sounds like barely average, blame his parents.

You over-rate him because his specific role is to kick all the easy Melbourne joe the goose goals, so he finishes higher on the goal kicking table than he does on a genuine list of the best forwards in the AFL. He is a good player, I have always said that, just not as good as what his goal amount would normally indicate with a forward who contributes more to his team's scores outside his own shots at goal.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Barely Avfritsch is a play on words Danster. It is not my fault Bayley Fritsch sounds like barely average, blame his parents.

You over-rate him because his specific role is to kick all the easy Melbourne joe the goose goals, so he finishes higher on the goal kicking table than he does on a genuine list of the best forwards in the AFL. He is a good player, I have always said that, just not as good as what his goal amount would normally indicate with a forward who contributes more to his team's scores outside his own shots at goal.
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Tell me what makes Fritschs goals easy? that's so much bs from you. when you make the AA squad, you're an elite player. So you need to re-evaluate.
 
danster168 said:
Tell me what makes Fritschs goals easy? that's so much bs from you. when you make the AA squad, you're an elite player. So you need to re-evaluate.
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If the best 44 players in the competition made up the AA squad each season then what you are saying might be true. But that is not even close to being the case.

Almost all of Fritsch's goals are uncontested. That means he relies almost totally on Melbourne players up the field breaking the play up and delivering the ball to him on a platter. He is good at the role but this is nowhere near the level of the best forwards in the competition who are able to take on opponents on the opponent's terms and produce goals from disadvantageous contests. Fritsch is nowhere near that level.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
If the best 44 players in the competition made up the AA squad each season then what you are saying might be true. But that is not even close to being the case.

Almost all of Fritsch's goals are uncontested. That means he relies almost totally on Melbourne players up the field breaking the play up and delivering the ball to him on a platter. He is good at the role but this is nowhere near the level of the best forwards in the competition who are able to take on opponents on the opponent's terms and produce goals from disadvantageous contests. Fritsch is nowhere near that level.
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dumbest thing I've read in a long time. You realise Fritsch has an opponent right? So it's his fault he bamboozles his opponents and kicks goals? Fritsch is a gun because he jumps on the heads of smaller opponents and is far too nimble for key defenders. And he's a dead eye kick for goal.

no idea what you're talking about in terms of 'taking on opponents on opponents terms'.

Fritsch has made it. He's kicked 6 in a granny. Most of them at clutch times. And everyone who makes the AA squad is a gun.

Why on earth you'd mention Fritsch (a guy who has ripped a granny apart) in a Cam Rayner thread is not smart. Tell me, what did Cam Rayner do in the Grand Final. 😆 🤣 😂
Worse than Gary Rohan type numbers :)
 
danster168 said:
dumbest thing I've read in a long time. You realise Fritsch has an opponent right? So it's his fault he bamboozles his opponents and kicks goals? Fritsch is a gun because he jumps on the heads of smaller opponents and is far too nimble for key defenders. And he's a dead eye kick for goal.

no idea what you're talking about in terms of 'taking on opponents on opponents terms'.

Fritsch has made it. He's kicked 6 in a granny. Most of them at clutch times. And everyone who makes the AA squad is a gun.

Why on earth you'd mention Fritsch (a guy who has ripped a granny apart) in a Cam Rayner thread is not smart. Tell me, what did Cam Rayner do in the Grand Final. 😆 🤣 😂
Worse than Gary Rohan type numbers :)
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You are kidding yourself Danster. Fritsch over the last 4 years averages well under 4 contested possessions per match and about 0.6 contested marks. Leaving aside high quality forwards who also play in the midfield, let's look at those stats for some of the best forwards in that period.

Tom Hawkins About 6.5 contested possessions 1.5 contested marks

Charlie Curnow 6.6 contested possessions 2 contested marks

Heeney playing forward 8 contested possessions 1 contested mark

Charlie Cameron 4.6 contested possessions 0.6 contested marks

Kyle Langford 2023 playing only forward 5.1 contested possessions 0.8 contested marks


Even in 2023 where Fritsch averaged more contested possessions than surrounding years he was ranked 118th amongst just forwards in the AFL for average contested possessions per match. In 2022 he ranked 145th amongst just AFL forwards for contested possessions. To give an idea just how uncontested this is, there are only 108 players playing forward in the AFL at any given time.


Fritsch is good at what he does, but he is not beating opponents to do it, he is on the end of it whenever Melbourne beats opposition defensive zones up the field to put Fritsch to huge advantage.
 

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Even though they were drafted in the same year, Fritsch is 3 years older. He definitely developed quicker. You can go into the AFL App and compare these two players output in every category. There's not many categories that Fritsch comes out ahead in. There is no stat for consistency but you can sort by averages. Rayner has played mostly in the midfield and Fritsch obviously as a full time forward though so it's hard to compare based on stats alone.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
You are kidding yourself Danster. Fritsch over the last 4 years averages well under 4 contested possessions per match and about 0.6 contested marks. Leaving aside high quality forwards who also play in the midfield, let's look at those stats for some of the best forwards in that period.

Tom Hawkins About 6.5 contested possessions 1.5 contested marks

Charlie Curnow 6.6 contested possessions 2 contested marks

Heeney playing forward 8 contested possessions 1 contested mark

Charlie Cameron 4.6 contested possessions 0.6 contested marks

Kyle Langford 2023 playing only forward 5.1 contested possessions 0.8 contested marks


Even in 2023 where Fritsch averaged more contested possessions than surrounding years he was ranked 118th amongst just forwards in the AFL for average contested possessions per match. In 2022 he ranked 145th amongst just AFL forwards for contested possessions. To give an idea just how uncontested this is, there are only 108 players playing forward in the AFL at any given time.


Fritsch is good at what he does, but he is not beating opponents to do it, he is on the end of it whenever Melbourne beats opposition defensive zones up the field to put Fritsch to huge advantage.
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lol what's this obsessions with 1 random stat :) So what your saying is that Fritsch's possessions are more contested as a percentage of his total possessions considering he is an opportunistic forward that doesn't roam up the ground. Nice one. Thanks for pointing that out.

P.s. you still didn't comment on what you thought of Rayner's granny compared Mr. Bayley 'Averages 6 snags in every granny he's played in'.
 
CarterS said:
Even though they were drafted in the same year, Fritsch is 3 years older. He definitely developed quicker. You can go into the AFL App and compare these two players output in every category. There's not many categories that Fritsch comes out ahead in. There is no stat for consistency but you can sort by averages. Rayner has played mostly in the midfield and Fritsch obviously as a full time forward though so it's hard to compare based on stats alone.
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haha, 'hard to compare'. lol. Yeah maybe because one is an elite afl player and the other one is still yet to fire a shot in the afl.


Stick to Rayner versus Spargo because looking in the direction of a guy that kicked 6 in a granny versus Rayner who didn't even have 6 kicks :)
 
danster168 said:
lol what's this obsessions with 1 random stat :) So what your saying is that Fritsch's possessions are more contested as a percentage of his total possessions considering he is an opportunistic forward that doesn't roam up the ground. Nice one. Thanks for pointing that out.

P.s. you still didn't comment on what you thought of Rayner's granny compared Mr. Bayley 'Averages 6 snags in every granny he's played in'.
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I have given loads of comments on both players' Grand Finals on this very thread. Fritsch did his job well and was the 6th highest rated player in his Grand Final. Rayner I thought had a poor Grand Final.

What is your point?
 

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