Cam Rayner

[danster168]

Heard Oliver more likely than not to be traded to Crows this offseason. Dees in for a big rebuild Danny.

if you watched the dees a bit closer you'd realise that we've been playing plenty of kids already. we have a lot of kids 22 and under playing.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

2023: 14.2 touches, 3.9 marks, 0.9 goals
2024: 14.6 touches, 3.2 marks, 1.1 goals

Yeah mate, I'm unhinged. Imagine looking at these stats and thinking Rayner has arrived. I educated you lot for years. And still the same lot haven't learnt a single lesson.

This might give you a few clues Danster, pleasure to be of service:







What can we see here?

He has pretty much improved across the board in every area with huge improvement in defensive activity, ie tackles and pressure acts. No wonder you are displaying clear signs of distress danster.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

dude, you go for Richmond...

You mean the last club to turn a flag into a dynasty? That Richmond?

 

[Elixuh]

Danster is like Mac, firing blindly into the jungle as Cam ‘mvp’ Rayner toys with him and dominates.

 

[danster168]

This might give you a few clues Danster, pleasure to be of service:

View attachment 2056149

View attachment 2056151

View attachment 2056152

What can we see here?

He has pretty much improved across the board in every area with huge improvement in defensive activity, ie tackles and pressure acts. No wonder you are displaying clear signs of distress danster.

are we looking at the same stats? so he's improved his goals from 0.9 to 1.1 in 6 years? His goal assists were better 2 years ago, his marking has stayed the same or gone marginally backwards, his disposals have gone from 13.5 to 14.6 in 6 years. That last stat is utterly garbage, is it not? 1.1 more disposals in 6 years?

I guess it shows you can analyse stats however we want.

 

[danster168]

Danster is like Mac, firing blindly into the jungle as Cam ‘mvp’ Rayner toys with him and dominates.

View attachment 2056168

14.6 touches, 3.2 marks 1.1 goals is dominating? oh geez, we've reached all time lows here. It's' totally cringe.

Last year
14.2 touches 3.9 marks, 0.9 goals. Keep glossing over this if you like.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

yeah, because eventually after 6 years he's bound to play a good game. what are you on about.

One good game you say- one, ha ha if
it was anyone but you I would say you can’t be that stupid, but being you I actually think you can.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

are we looking at the same stats? so he's improved his goals from 0.9 to 1.1 in 6 years? His goal assists were better 2 years ago, his marking has stayed the same or gone marginally backwards, his disposals have gone from 13.5 to 14.6 in 6 years. That last stat is utterly garbage, is it not? 1.1 more disposals in 6 years?

I guess it shows you can analyse stats however we want.

You don't seem to have any clue how to read stats Danster. So you better stick with the 1970's stats, kicks marks handballs goals. But that is why the player ratings make it easy for people like you. His previous best rating in a season was 9.64 in 2022. His current player rating in 2024 is 11.39. His previous best average coaches votes in a season was 0.54 per game. He is currently on 1.22 per game in 2024. Just watch those simple catch all type indicators Danster, the other stuff is a bit too esoteric for you.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Bet they can't believe their luck. They wanted to trade 2 x rd 1 picks for spud Harry Petty and Dees said hold on a minute, we will give you Clayton Oliver and change for that.

Let’s not forget they will also pay a shit tonne of money each year for the crows to take him.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Let’s not forget they will also pay a shit tonne of money each year for the crows to take him.

Brody Grundy like deal for the Dees. Very generous of them.

 

[Elixuh]

14.6 touches, 3.2 marks 1.1 goals is dominating? oh geez, we've reached all time lows here. It's' totally cringe.

Last year
14.2 touches 3.9 marks, 0.9 goals. Keep glossing over this if you like.

Danny you say you don’t care about stats…d d d do you know what stats are? I’m getting worried.

 

[danster168]

Danny you say you don’t care about stats…d d d do you know what stats are? I’m getting worried.

I'm speaking The Worpedo>Toby Greene guy's language.

 

[Elixuh]

I'm speaking The Worpedo>Toby Greene guy's language.

He's using stats from a reputable source, I look at them from time to time as well.

However, I don't think the stats you're relying on are very helpful. They were very in vogue in the 1980s, but times have changed Danny. Cam 'mvp' rayner is having a marvelous year, one day you will admit it and join us. With the way the Dees are going, that day is coming sooner than you think.

 

[danster168]

Meteoric Rise didn't that spud Petty kick 6 goals on your mob? You gotta cut the guy some slack. He came back from a serious injury, had a very limited pre-season. It was an injury that you would've used as an excuse for 3 years if it was Rayner. Then he's come in and played out of position. He'll return to the backline where he has flourished in the past. A role that earned him a big 800k, 5 year contract. A contract that Rayner would never get. So pipe down.

And regards to Oliver, we all know his off field troubles. He's clearly not himself right now but don't throw shade on a guy who has been an all time great. Stop acting like a sore loser just because I exposed you with Rayner. You promised me a breakout last year. Didn't happen. Didn't happen this year. Then you attempted to slander 2 time AA squad in Fritsch.

 

[danster168]

He's using stats from a reputable source, I look at them from time to time as well.

However, I don't think the stats you're relying on are very helpful. They were very in vogue in the 1980s, but times have changed Danny. Cam 'mvp' rayner is having a marvelous year, one day you will admit it and join us. With the way the Dees are going, that day is coming sooner than you think.

But we debunked them in like 5 minutes with about 10 players completely out of order.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Speaking of stats…

 

[Elixuh]

Speaking of stats…

Danny you're almost at 1,000 posts! Wow, thats awesome. Great stuff.

 

[danster168]

Danny you're almost at 1,000 posts! Wow, thats awesome. Great stuff.

you guys should be thanking me. Keeping a C grader relevant.

So looking forward, what do we consider to be a breakout season? To see if we can agree on something. For me, as a full time mid (25 touches per game, I don't care about the peripheries), as a mid/fwd it 23 touches a game, and 1.2 goals a game, as a full time fwd it's a 50 goal season. That's what I would consider a true breakout.

 

[Elixuh]

you guys should be thanking me. Keeping a C grader relevant.

So looking forward, what do we consider to be a breakout season? To see if we can agree on something. For me, as a full time mid (25 touches per game, I don't care about the peripheries), as a mid/fwd it 23 touches a game, and 1.2 goals a game, as a full time fwd it's a 50 goal season. That's what I would consider a true breakout.

Lets see how the rest of the season pans out and where he finishes in the B&F. Was top 5 last year in a grand final season, oof!

 

[dmac_55]

you guys should be thanking me. Keeping a C grader relevant.

So looking forward, what do we consider to be a breakout season? To see if we can agree on something. For me, as a full time mid (25 touches per game, I don't care about the peripheries), as a mid/fwd it 23 touches a game, and 1.2 goals a game, as a full time fwd it's a 50 goal season. That's what I would consider a true breakout.

you guys should be thanking me. Keeping a C grader relevant.

So looking forward, what do we consider to be a breakout season? To see if we can agree on something. For me, as a full time mid (25 touches per game, I don't care about the peripheries), as a mid/fwd it 23 touches a game, and 1.2 goals a game, as a full time fwd it's a 50 goal season. That's what I would consider a true breakout.

Only Isaac heeney and Josh Kelly average 1.2 goals a game and 23+ touches

Pretty high bar to set!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

you guys should be thanking me. Keeping a C grader relevant.

So looking forward, what do we consider to be a breakout season? To see if we can agree on something. For me, as a full time mid (25 touches per game, I don't care about the peripheries), as a mid/fwd it 23 touches a game, and 1.2 goals a game, as a full time fwd it's a 50 goal season. That's what I would consider a true breakout.

Lol, how many players get 23 touches and 1.2 goals per game over a season danster?

In 2024 4 players Bontempelli, Warner, Heeney, Josh Kelly, that is it. But this is an exceptional year as we are about to see...

In 2023 1 player, Dustin Martin

In 2022 zero players

In 2021 Petracca, Bontempelli

So in the last 4 seasons all of 6 different players in the whole AFL have reached this "breakout" pass mark.


But then we move to 50 goals per season, and lets standardise that to a 22 game average of 2.3 per game as you used averages for the other pass marks, and let's see how many players achieve that....

In 2024 only 5 players, but Fritsch nowhere near it

In 2023 12 players, Fritsch not even amongst them

In 2022 14 players, Fritsch at the bottom end of the range

In 2021 12 players, Fritsch near the bottom end of the range


And disposals 25 touches per game

In 2024 30 players

In 2023 38 players

In 2022 35 players

In 2021 42 players


I think you have your criteria skewed a bit somehow.

In 2024 only 18 players in the AFL average more disposals than Rayner at over a goal per game. Remembering too this is not taking any account of his defensive stats. Let's look at players who average 1+ goals, 3+ tackles and 14+ disposals.

Rankine, Warner, Dylan Moore, Keays, Bontempelli, Heeney, Josh Kelly, Rayner, Petracca, Horne-Francis, J Cripps.

Only 11 names on that list Danster, the list that calls for offensive & defensive play combined. And Rayner is on it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

danster168

Also interesting Rayner is now the 10th highest rated player in 2024 from the 2017 draft. Right near where I projected his future value 2 years ago. And 20 places above where you projected his future value. You've had a mare here danster, humiliating for you.

 

[danster168]

danster168

Also interesting Rayner is now the 10th highest rated player in 2024 from the 2017 draft. Right near where I projected his future value 2 years ago. And 20 places above where you projected his future value. You've had a mare here danster, humiliating for you.

lol. 10th. haha. kidding yourself. aint nowhere near that. 34th. I'd love to know how I can have a mare when I correctly predicted his stats 6 months ahead of time. lol.

24 non-negotiable as miles ahead of Rayner: Brayshaw, LDU, Fritsch, Naughton, Dylan Moore, Zac Bailey, Ed Richards, Tim Kelly, Balta, Liam Ryan, Brent Daniels, Sam Taylor, Tom De Koning, Tom McCartin, Worpel, Miers, Meek, Xerri, Liam Baker, Mihocek, Cerra, Higgins, Starcevich, Oscar Allen

So then the next bracket (11 players) that Rayner is in: Ainsworth, Will Powell, Petty, Bonar, Fogarty, Rayner, Nathan Murphy (now out of the game), Farrell, Switkowski, Holman, Amartey.

So we can argue until we're blue in the face about where Rayner sits from this draft class, but the arguments are between 25-35 in this draft. And I have him at 34. No-one could argue a logical case for him being anywhere near this top 24.

Your focus on this most recent year, where he hasn't even improved from last year, and your reluctance to look at their 6 year career to date shows just how bad his career has been to date. You can't understand the very basic principle that a players value in a draft is based on their total football produced over their career yeah?

And people think that a measly 14-15 possession, 1.1 goals a game is swinging is value? Absolutely mind-boggling logic.

 

[danster168]

But then we move to 50 goals per season, and lets standardise that to a 22 game average of 2.3 per game as you used averages for the other pass marks, and let's see how many players achieve that....

In 2024 only 5 players, but Fritsch nowhere near it

In 2023 12 players, Fritsch not even amongst them

In 2022 14 players, Fritsch at the bottom end of the range

In 2021 12 players, Fritsch near the bottom end of the range

It's a pass mark. there's no ranges. So stop making up ranges because you don't have the decency to acknowledge his elite-ness. In 2023,Fritch had 2.2 (You made no comment that he was close to 2.3) even though in 2021 you mention 'bottom end of the range' even though he kicked 2.5 which is further away from the pass mark than the 2.2 that he narrowly missed out on. Shows your bias right there. I caught you in your own bias. Be better.

once again, own your loss. he's a 2 time, AA squad member and he kicked 6 goals in a granny as you well know.

And lastly, you had no courage when asking to predict Rayners averages. I gave you the opportunity and you chickened out. I didn't. I put my neck on the line and successfully predicted his stats. Again. I was generous and allowed Rayner an extra year because apparently an ACL is a 3 year injury and still nothing. He's improved his disposal count by 1 touch in 6 years. Talk about leather poisoning.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

lol. 10th. haha. kidding yourself. aint nowhere near that. 34th. I'd love to know how I can have a mare when I correctly predicted his stats 6 months ahead of time. lol.

24 non-negotiable as miles ahead of Rayner: Brayshaw, LDU, Fritsch, Naughton, Dylan Moore, Zac Bailey, Ed Richards, Tim Kelly, Balta, Liam Ryan, Brent Daniels, Sam Taylor, Tom De Koning, Tom McCartin, Worpel, Miers, Meek, Xerri, Liam Baker, Mihocek, Cerra, Higgins, Starcevich, Oscar Allen

So then the next bracket (11 players) that Rayner is in: Ainsworth, Will Powell, Petty, Bonar, Fogarty, Rayner, Nathan Murphy (now out of the game), Farrell, Switkowski, Holman, Amartey.

So we can argue until we're blue in the face about where Rayner sits from this draft class, but the arguments are between 25-35 in this draft. And I have him at 34. No-one could argue a logical case for him being anywhere near this top 24.

Your focus on this most recent year, where he hasn't even improved from last year, and your reluctance to look at their 6 year career to date shows just how bad his career has been to date. You can't understand the very basic principle that a players value in a draft is based on their total football produced over their career yeah?

And people think that a measly 14-15 possession, 1.1 goals a game is swinging is value? Absolutely mind-boggling logic.

Average career player ratings 2017 draft crop below. Pretty sure they are all playing now bar Nathan Murphy and I've captured everyone who is playing still.

Things to note

* = has benefitted from playing much fewer games at younger ages, and more at a mature age.
** = tall players who played a lot of games from a young age so should fairly be adjusted to a higher average player rating.

1. T Kelly 12.2*
2. Uniacke 11.98
3. Moore 11.37*
4. Worpedo 11.1
5. Taylor 10.58**
6. Brayshaw 10.54
7. Switkowski 10.54*
8. Meek 9.97*
9. T Dekoning 9.92*
10. Cerra 9.9
11. Xerri 9.79*
12. Richards 9.75
13. L Baker 9.59*
14. Bailey 9.57
15. Barely Avfritsch 9.33*
16. Daniels 9.24
17. Liam Ryan 9.18*
18. Naughton 9.15**
19. Miller 9.11*
20. Higgins 8.92
21. Miers 8.88
22. Balta 8.69
23. Powell 8.55
24. D Fogarty 8.45*
25. Rayner 8.44
26. Farrell 8.3*
27. Allen 8.26
28. McCartin 8.12**
29. Mihocek 7.98*
30. Ballard 7.90
31. Stephenson 7.78
32. Dow 7.64
33. L Fogarty 7.6*
34. B Zerk 7.58*
35. L Murphy 7.49
36. Clark 7.3
37. Payne 7.11*
38. Petrucelle 6.97
39. Banfield 6.89*
40. Guelfi 6.76*
41. Petty 6.62*
42. Starcevich 6.55
43. Spargo 6.35**
44. Nathan Murphy 6.17
45. Amartey 6.12*
46. Coffield 5.99
47. Coleman-Jones 5.83
48. Paton 5.54
49. O Baker 5.44*

So you are right danster, there are 24 players ahead of Rayner on performance so far. But they are not exactly the 24 you named, but you weren't too far off to be fair. The thing is Rayner in 2024 has gone ahead of a heap of them, and looks poised to rise up this list all going well for him. There are quite a few ahead of him who have benefitted from having the vast majority of their matches played skewed towards them being much more mature than Rayner. The other thing is that Rayner has done an ACL and is one of only a small number from this draft to suffer really serious injuries. That has clearly handicapped him a little.

Another thing to note here is the ruckmen seem to accumulate a lot of ratings points, and i think the ratings points are skewed a lot more towards them now with the new ruck rules. So ruckmen appear to be over-rated by the ratings system. And key position players are clearly under-rated by ratings system, Taylor, Naughton, Balta and Allen in particular would clearly be amongst the most valuable 10 or so players from this draft crop if traded this year.

We can also see there are 11 x 1 Asterisk players ahead of Rayner and I think all going as expected he will reel most of them in over the next few years.

Last comment here on this. Sam Taylor is I think now in reality top of this draft class based on both performance so far and future value. And Oskar Baker is yet another absolute ****ing spud taken by the Demons at this draft. What on earth were they thinking?