Can Bel Esprit win?

[Catman]

After drawing barrier 15 for Saturday's Caulfield Guineas it makes his task a lot harder. Many think he can only win by going forward but doing that could leave him sitting 3 or 4 wide for most of the race and probably ending his chances.
The other option is to take a sit, something that we have been hearing John Symons say he will be better doing. But we are yet to see it actually happen in a race. By doing this he will have to make a run at about the 800 and this could prevent him from unleashing that electrifying sprint he has.

He couldn't have a better jockey on board and it will test Oliver's ability to the extreme. If Oliver can get him closer than midfield and sitting outside a horse he could get a nice run in the straight and ping past them. But that is a big IF from barrier 15.

What does everyone think? Can he win or is it now impossible?

 

[dees01]

NO.

Won't get 1600m. Struggled over 1400, just gets 1200. Won't win.

 

[Mocca]

I don't think so, but I'm not leaving him out of my quaddie.

The thing is that he has destroyed these three year olds time and again. I don't think this is a vintage crop, at least the colts aren't, and he's clearly got class over them.

I do think it is rare that horses are beaten from a barrier draw, and its rare that I'll dismiss a horse purely on an unsuitable marble. It's probably the first mile race that most of these horses have been in, so there just won't be a heap of horses burning forward, they'll be feeling their way. Genuine speed inside (Great Glen) means that the field should be reasonably well spread early on, and I can't see Oliver having too many problems settling in the first four.

Distance is clearly the main query. I don't think it's right that Bel Esprit failed to get 1400m - he did manage to run second in a Group 1. With less pressure and no need to make the pace, there's every chance he could be given a more cushy run than he has in the last two outings. But can he go the mile? Can any of them?

I think he might be a little too brilliant for 1600m, but he'll give himself a chance and shouldn't be dismissed. Any silly prices ($5 or over) and you'd be mad not to save on him.

 

[sethlad]

This is a tough one.I wont be betting on the race.

He most certainly can win if he has an ounce of luck. I don't subscribe to the theory that he has to go forward but he will.
They are not going to experiment in a race like this,he's always been a jump & run horse & that's his chance to get the mile.
If he's to win it will be on pure ability.Why try to make a stayer out of him?

Everyone wants to knock him,who's his danger?

Helenus may be one out of the box but he's gunna be back & wide,remember Universal Prince in this race?
Hard to see anything that finished behind him at the Valley turning the tables.

Dunno about Great Glen at the mile,Helenus ran 2nd behind him at Caulfield,again it's hard to see Titanic Jack or Delago Brom turning it around in 2 weeks.

Bunker may be the wildcard,Choisir,who knows?

Seth.

 

[Catman]

Originally posted by sethlad
Choisir,who knows?

No, he'll be running down the straight like a chook with its head cut off. If anything he'll be knocking horses out of the race as he zig zags the last 400m.

Nightmare horse.

 

[Deej]

I don't think it can win, unless it slows them up unbelievably and doesn't get attacked at all, then sprints around the turn. Even then I reckon it'll get cut down.

 

[Davo75]

I share the opinion of others...... Bel Esprit is a huge query at The Mile!!!

Nobody thought General Nediym would get the mile either in The Guineas of 1997, he almost won that!!!!!!

Barrier 15 obviously no assistance!!!!

Id be laying Him!!!!!!!

 

[Deej]

I think the General was a better 3yr old than Bel Esprit is now (by a fair way too).

I rated the General equal to Our Maizcay as a 3yr old, and I'm pretty sure General Nediym would slaughter tomorrow's Guineas field if he were running.

 

[Davo75]

No Doubt!!!!!

Didnt the General Run against Encounter, Guineas etc...... in his 3 yr old season!!!!!!!

If Bel Esprit gets up tomorrow it will be a huge performance!!!

Any thoughts on the Derby????????

I have my thoughts on 1 horse!!!!!

Wont be letting the cat out of the bag yet though!!!!!

I think the 3 Year Old Bunch is rather average this season!

 

[sethlad]

Originally posted by Davo75

Any thoughts on the Derby????????
I have my thoughts on 1 horse!!!!!
Wont be letting the cat out of the bag yet though!!!!!



Understandably too,there's some "massive" punters on this board.
Don't want to miss your price
LOL!

Seth.

 

[X_box_X]

Cool Trent for me!!

Nice odds too

 

[AlfAndrews]

Don't like the race as a betting proposition. Too many distance queries on too many of the key runners.

If forced to have a stab:

1.Great Glen
2.Choisir
3.Helenus
4.Bel Esprit

Helenus is the only proven miler out of those ... and even that was a Valley mile.

Cup of tea race.

 

[Catman]

Originally posted by Davo75
Any thoughts on the Derby????????

Platinum Scissors by a long way.

He will do what his full brother should have done, if connections stopped chasing Group 1's and focussed on stepping him out over distance.

He will win the Derby and head to the Melbourne Cup, similar to Nothin' Leica Dane in 1995.

 

[Davo75]

Originally posted by sethlad

Originally posted by Davo75

Any thoughts on the Derby????????
I have my thoughts on 1 horse!!!!!
Wont be letting the cat out of the bag yet though!!!!!



Understandably too,there's some "massive" punters on this board.
Don't want to miss your price
LOL!

Seth.

Am Actually Keen on Half Henessey!!!!!

 

[paulie]

I am being very boring and just taking three in that leg of the quaddie Bel Esprit, Helenus and Titanic Jack.I can't really see anything else winning not a very strong group of three year olds apart from maybe the toppie.

 

[Catman]

All credit to Helenus, but Bel Esprit was the best thing beaten I have ever seen. Great idea to drop him out the back but at about 600m he almost got flattened then got held up about 3 times in the straight. Once Damien got him clear, after taking him over the heels of other runners he exploded.

I've just heard he's still in the Cox Plate. On today's effort there's no reason why he wont run 2040m but whether he is mature enough to do it is another thing. I wouldn't keep to sprinting races though, especially now he's proved he can run a mile.

 

[sethlad]

Originally posted by Davo75

Am Actually Keen on Half Henessey!!!!!


Save your cash, Half Henessey is headed for the Carbine Club on Derby Day.
As quoted on the Racing & Sports website.

Seth.

 

[Catman]

Originally posted by sethlad
Half Henessey is headed for the Carbine Club on Derby Day.[/B]

He should head back to Sydney. Struggled in all 3 runs the Melbourne way.