Autopsy Can Brisbane win the premiership with their record at the MCG?

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powerrrrrrrrrrrr

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I was genuinely surprised to hear last night that the Lions have not won a game at the MCG since 2014.

This raises the question if they can win the GF given their continued poor performance at the ground?

Historically, they have played at the MCG 53 times for only 15 wins and a winning % of only 29%.

Taking that into account and the fact they haven’t won there since 2014, is the MCG their bogey ground?

Since their last win, their results have been:

2015 : Lost to Melbourne by 24
2016 : Lost to Melbourne by 63
2016 : Lost to Richmond by 42
2017 : Lost to Collingwood by 45
2017 : Lost to Melbourne by 13
2018 : Lost to Melbourne by 26
2018 : Lost to Richmond by 93
2019 : Lost to Essendon by 47
2019 : Lost to Richmond by 27
2020 : Lost to Hawthorn by 28
2021 : No games due to Covid
2022 : Lost to Melbourne by 64

Ignoring the COVID affected years, they tend to play 2 games a year on the MCG which is on par for interstate teams.

Their average loosing margin in the last 8 years at the MCG is 42 points. Is this due to not knowing how to play the ground or coming up against stronger teams on their home deck or perhaps is it simply poor timing that they peaked during COVID years when they played limited games at the MCG?

They will need to overcome this 42 point deficit on the MCG to win the premiership while they are in their window. However looking at their history at the ground, it seems this will be a huge hurdle.

As posted on page 2, here’s a comparison with other interstate teams at the MCG. Ignoring GWS and the Suns, Brisbane are the worst performing interstate team at the MCG.

Fremantle 42%
West Coast 40%
Adelaide 35%
Port 44%
Sydney 42%
GWS 24%
GC 25%

(FYI - this is not intended to be a Vic V interstate slinging fest)
 
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powerrrrrrrrrrrr

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Brisbane like WCE (previous years) before them slaughter all on their home deck but struggle at the MCG best chance for a flag was the GF at the GABBA

The losses to the Hawks and Essendon in recent years are the cause for concern. Games they should have won and yet still dropped them.
 

powerrrrrrrrrrrr

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The MCG has no bearing on whether they can win or not. It is all about whether they can handle finals pressure.

The MCG is a patch of grass with goalposts at each end, I don't see why that would have any impact at all.

I think the longer they go without a win on any ground certainly adds another layer of pressure and expectation. As you mention there is already added pressure during finals, adding any additional pressure can see teams fall apart on the big stage.

Think it was mentioned McStay is the only Lion to win a game at the MCG. That’s amazing (that’s obviously ignoring the trades in players like Daniher/Neale etc). No other Lion has won a game on that ground.
 

TheGhostOfJohnBelushi

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Brisbane like WCE (previous years) before them slaughter all on their home deck but struggle at the MCG best chance for a flag was the GF at the GABBA

Essendon may have been a better comparison, champ. Struggle at the MCG constantly. Since our current coach took the reigns 8 years ago we've had a better winning % of games there compared to the Bombers.
 

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boncer34

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Essendon may have been a better comparison, champ. Struggle at the MCG constantly. Since our current coach took the reigns 8 years ago we've had a better winning % of games there compared to the Bombers.
Why?

We don't slaughter anyone home or away.
 

juss

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Can they? Of course there's a possibility for a top 4 side to win it, but they would need match ups to go their way.

Do not see them beating a VIC team at the MCG on GF day or in a PF, so they need to win their home finals, and hope that they face a Freo or a Sydney or something to that effect on GF day. Effectively hoping that another team knocks off Melbourne for them.
 

La Dispute

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Fagan is way too nice.

I’m sure he’d go out of his way to jump start a mates car and is probably happy to lend his neighbours his power tools but does not seem ruthless.
 

kaiserchief13

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Brisbane like WCE (previous years) before them slaughter all on their home deck but struggle at the MCG best chance for a flag was the GF at the GABBA
Oh yeah? That's why WC won 3 out of 3 in 2018 and 2 out of 4 in 2019. WC is probably the best performing team at the MCG over the past 10 years of non Victorian teams, maybe other than Sydney.

Brisbane lose home or away to top teams because they simply have too many spuds in their team. Hipwood and McStay are a joke of a key forward line.
 

KissKiss

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I dont know if its an MCG issue or just a blockbuster issue. We seem to choke in both. Seems like the team cant handle the pressure on the big stage.

At the same time while we have a good team, I dont think the midfield or the game plan can stack up enough to beat the best teams. It does enough to win a lot of games but just isnt good enough
 

Roobs321

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It's a familiar pattern with the Lions by now. Once they look on the brink of being the team to beat, they tend to flop that crucial test. Back in 2018 I was super confident that they would be one of those rapid-rising premiers, and 2019 was forgivable straight set exit apprenticeship, but then losing the 2020 PF and 2021 QF in the manner they did and this was more of the same. That said, Melbourne certainly needed the win more, I'm sure they were very hungry to put aside the midseason lull and right ship, with no excuses. This was the Lion's first belting of the season, in itself it isn't the end of the world, but given the flag window trend of this Lions team it was a familiar dispiriting tune. It all went to script basically. Melbourne still the real deal, Brisbane still the underachieving bridesmaid.

I don't think the MCG is really the issue though, at least not anymore than a typical away side. They seldom get to play there. Away in Victoria/Tasmania (Docklands, Kardinia, Eureka, York, etc.) their formline is pretty typical when away, not bashing up sides as heavily as at home, and with various narrow losses against strong opp, but not starkly worse like a home track pretender. They are more prone to choking a marquee blockbuster, getting rattled by an opponent's purple patch. I guess it will just happen when it happens (kinda like Carlton coming good pre-2022).
 
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ThePhreshOne

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It’s not only an interstate team thing to be honest. Marvel tenants have the same issue (specifically Dogs, Saints and Roos) who don’t share the MCG as their home.

It’s not a big deal. I genuinely don’t think the ground is as big of a factor as many make it.
 

JasRulz63

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It's not so much the MCG...I just don't think they're good enough.

And they're VERY slow.

Melbourne cut them up with pace, Freo much the same

Yeah the speed thing is an issue (very evident last night without Zorko and Bailey). We have very little speed in the midfield or on the wings, especially since Zorko has gotten older and transitioned out of there. There's a bit of pace out of defense with Coleman and Starcevich, but nothing to write home about.
 

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