Autopsy Can Brisbane win the premiership with their record at the MCG?

[Falcon3518]

Should speak to afl house. Get this result over turned.

It doesn’t count in regards to the form line. Not the actual result silly. Instead of trying to be a smart ass with every response to me actually read my comment properly.


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[BigPond101]

There is something that looks soft, weak and pathetic about Brisbane... it goes by the name of Daniher.. Joe Daniher

 

[campbell]

There is something that looks soft, weak and pathetic about Brisbane... it goes by the name of Daniher.. Joe Daniher

aw, you, no like our Joey?

 

[Jackington]

Yeah I think Brisbane's MCG record is less important in this context than their finals record.

1-5 record in finals over the last three years, and haven't had to play any of them at the MCG - last time they played a final at the MCG was 2009, so is long enough ago to be irrelevant, despite them getting spanked to the tune of 51 points.

They went straight sets at home in 2019, and completely choked in 2020, in a season that was practically handed to them.

If they manage to beat Richmond this week, they have to play the Swans at the SCG or the Dees at the MCG. And then one of Geelong or Collingwood at the MCG also if they can scrape their way into a prelim. Can't see it happening under Fagan to be honest.

Poor Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

27

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

has had to endure 21 more one on one contests than the next player in the comp, there's a reason they're ranked 10th in the league for points against.

 

[Duskfire]

Yeah I think Brisbane's MCG record is less important in this context than their finals record.

1-5 record in finals over the last three years, and haven't had to play any of them at the MCG - last time they played a final at the MCG was 2009, so is long enough ago to be irrelevant, despite them getting spanked to the tune of 51 points.

They went straight sets at home in 2019, and completely choked in 2020, in a season that was practically handed to them.

If they manage to beat Richmond this week, they have to play the Swans at the SCG or the Dees at the MCG. And then one of Geelong or Collingwood at the MCG also if they can scrape their way into a prelim. Can't see it happening under Fagan to be honest.

Poor Harris Andrews has had to endure 21 more one on one contests than the next player in the comp, there's a reason they're ranked 10th in the league for points against.

Yeah it is the points against which is the problem. To win flags a team needs to be top 3 defensively. I am sure there are some exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking that is the case. To not even be in the top 8 is bad. I've made this comparison before but they remind me a lot of Geelong of the 90's. This team when on their own terms can destroy teams due to their overpowering scoring, but when the heat is applied they struggle. I dont think its a coincedence that Melbourne and Geelong, who both have a good record against Brisbane, are quite defensive.

 

[Jackington]

Yeah it is the points against which is the problem. To win flags a team needs to be top 3 defensively. I am sure there are some exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking that is the case. To not even be in the top 8 is bad. I've made this comparison before but they remind me a lot of Geelong of the 90's. This team when on their own terms can destroy teams due to their overpowering scoring, but when the heat is applied they struggle. I dont think its a coincedence that Melbourne and Geelong, who both have a good record against Brisbane, are quite defensive.

I did a little breakdown of that for my podcast recently, and you're pretty spot on.

Only 8 sides since 1990 (and 4 since 2000) have been able to win the premiership without being top four for points against, and only one (North, 1999) were able to do it from outside the top 8. Compare that to the team with the best points against, who statistically win the flag one in every three years, and are runners up the other third of the time, and it's definitely one of the most important factors.

Even in 2016 and 2021 where the Bulldogs "came from nowhere" to make grand finals, they were top four for points against.

 

[Taper]

Good win last night but premierships aren't won at Docklands.

 

[Xtreme]

They are Carlton's #1 threat to the 2023 premiership.

 

[Osho]

Brissy beat a lethargic Pies.
By 4 goals.
In a feather fisted game, no heavy artillery fired.
Whacko, wahoo.
If fans think finals games will be such a doddle, well, look out.

Soggy salad
Damp squib
Flat beer.

I ended up cleaning my bedroom listening to a late night talk show.

 

[Saab NLAW]

I think they can