Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT?

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PhatBoy

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Fair point, although again if he keeps going it's closer than you think. For me, based on how much Martin has left in his career it goes Ablett jnr, Ablett snr, Judd, Martin, Franklin, Carey then it becomes more murky (this is best players since mid 90s).
People think when you pick so and so ahead of so and so, that you’re saying you don’t rate them or something.

I DO rate Martin - my team was on the end of him in the biggest game of the year - but I just don’t have him in that company at the moment. Fair play to him he stands up repeatedly on the biggest stage and that’s a huge part of creating a legacy. But he’s not the first and won’t be the last to do that. Luke Hodge and Paul Chapman are two finals specialists I can think of straight off the top of my head who did similar things regularly, with the difference that the finals teams they played in probably had a fair bit more eye catching star power than the Tigers which makes it harder to stand out as clearly.

now Martin himself has probably been a better week to week player than Chapman in particular but my point is that the elevation in his game at the big end can only do so much to bridge the gap created in home and away footy.
 

Noidnadroj

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There’s a common narrative that Dusty has had ‘5 good years’ .... not sure where it started, but time for some perspective:

1st season 2010: 4th in the B&F. 6 Brownlow Votes.
2011: 3rd in B&F and 12 votes.
2012: 10th and 5
2013: 2nd and 16
2014: 3rd and 13
2015: 2nd and 21
2016: 1st and 25
2017: 1st and 36
2018: 3rd and 19
2019: 6th and 23
2020: 2nd and 15

He holds the record with KB for most top-3 finishes in Richmond’s history at 8.

So the narrative that he has only had ‘5 good years’ is just blatantly wrong on every conceivable measure.

I mean 4th then 3rd in the B&F in your first 2 seasons and 18 Brownlow votes.... that’s rarified air for an 18yo draftee right there.

Then when making finals and winning lots of games from 2013-15, he finishes 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and gets 50 Brownlow votes ... but according to the common narrative only from 2016 did Dusty become any good...... interesting.


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Oh, I forgot to mention..... percentage of games receiving Brownlow votes:

Fyfe: 44.9%
Martin: 38.9%
Danger: 37.8%
GAJ: 36.7%
S.Mitchell: 35.6%
Swan: 35.3%
Judd: 34.7%
Selwood: 34.4%

So given everything, any narrative about Dusty’s home and away record precluding him from GOAT discussion is not factual based on all available measurements.



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Noidnadroj

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Oh ok so now what happens before he makes the defining move and takes possession DOES count.

he gathers possession cleanly and finishes nicely, in other words
Ok .... fair enough points. Let me re-define.... There were 19 goals kicked in the Grand Final. If you ranked them 1-19, all of Martin’s are in the top-6, and arguably could be ranked the top-4. To do that is almost beyond comprehension under the pressure of a Grand Final.




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Noidnadroj

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People think when you pick so and so ahead of so and so, that you’re saying you don’t rate them or something.

I DO rate Martin - my team was on the end of him in the biggest game of the year - but I just don’t have him in that company at the moment. Fair play to him he stands up repeatedly on the biggest stage and that’s a huge part of creating a legacy. But he’s not the first and won’t be the last to do that. Luke Hodge and Paul Chapman are two finals specialists I can think of straight off the top of my head who did similar things regularly, with the difference that the finals teams they played in probably had a fair bit more eye catching star power than the Tigers which makes it harder to stand out as clearly.

now Martin himself has probably been a better week to week player than Chapman in particular but my point is that the elevation in his game at the big end can only do so much to bridge the gap created in home and away footy.
On what measure in H&A analysis do you believe Dusty is not worthy ? Consistency? Quality? Goals? Longevity? And is there a stat to back you up or just ‘gut feel’?




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PhatBoy

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On what measure in H&A analysis do you believe Dusty is not worthy ? Consistency? Quality? Goals? Longevity? And is there a stat to back you up or just ‘gut feel’?




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If I had to back it with stats I’d just say ‘Gary Ablett junior’ and you wouldn’t even be able to respond
 

Richo83

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People think when you pick so and so ahead of so and so, that you’re saying you don’t rate them or something.

I DO rate Martin - my team was on the end of him in the biggest game of the year - but I just don’t have him in that company at the moment. Fair play to him he stands up repeatedly on the biggest stage and that’s a huge part of creating a legacy. But he’s not the first and won’t be the last to do that. Luke Hodge and Paul Chapman are two finals specialists I can think of straight off the top of my head who did similar things regularly, with the difference that the finals teams they played in probably had a fair bit more eye catching star power than the Tigers which makes it harder to stand out as clearly.

now Martin himself has probably been a better week to week player than Chapman in particular but my point is that the elevation in his game at the big end can only do so much to bridge the gap created in home and away footy.
Difference between Martin and Chapman is that Chapman never proved himself to be an elite midfielder. He was often a pinch hitter playing at the coalface and that means he drops below Martin IMO.

Hodge? Hodge's gamestyle was more rustic and agricultural than Martin. Hodge was a great player, a real heart and soul player but if you think Martin doesn't have the consistency, then what about Hodge? He was never considered one of the elite midfielders of his time and has blemishes on his record like winning two brownlow votes in Hawthorn's 2008 premiership season. I know, I know, the brownlow is flawed, but two? Played a fair bit in the backline early, and then shifted to a hybrid role where he'd do a bit of everything, but was never elite at any position bar maybe half back flank. To me he reminds me of Voss, but I think Voss was the better player. I don't even think Hodge was Hawthorn's best midfielder at the time, let alone the league's. Whereas I think Martin has that title at the moment.

I also really rate these two, and I've defended Hodge's legacy on this website. But I think Martin is closer to junior and Judd than Hodge. I'm curious where you'd put him in the pantheon of the past 25 years.
 

PhatBoy

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Difference between Martin and Chapman is that Chapman never proved himself to be an elite midfielder. He was often a pinch hitter playing at the coalface and that means he drops below Martin IMO.

Hodge? Hodge's gamestyle was more rustic and agricultural than Martin. Hodge was a great player, a real heart and soul player but if you think Martin doesn't have the consistency, then what about Hodge? He was never considered one of the elite midfielders of his time and has blemishes on his record like winning two brownlow votes in Hawthorn's 2008 premiership season. I know, I know, the brownlow is flawed, but two? Played a fair bit in the backline early, and then shifted to a hybrid role where he'd do a bit of everything, but was never elite at any position bar maybe half back flank. To me he reminds me of Voss, but I think Voss was the better player. I don't even think Hodge was Hawthorn's best midfielder at the time, let alone the league's. Whereas I think Martin has that title at the moment.

I also really rate these two, and I've defended Hodge's legacy on this website. But I think Martin is closer to Judd than Hodge. I'm curious where you'd put him in the pantheon of the past 25 years.
Sorry I wasn’t saying I necessarily think hodge was better week to week just citing examples of players who were good and then got absolutely great when the heat was on
 

Richo83

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Sorry I wasn’t saying I necessarily think hodge was better week to week just citing examples of players who were good and then got absolutely great when the heat was on
Okay fair enough, but you said "Luke Hodge and Paul Chapman are two finals specialists I can think of straight off the top of my head who did similar things regularly"

I think the word similar in that sentence is doing a lot of work.
 

PhatBoy

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Okay fair enough, but you said "Luke Hodge and Paul Chapman are two finals specialists I can think of straight off the top of my head who did similar things regularly"

I think the word similar in that sentence is doing a lot of work.
Similar things in terms of upping their game to absolute peak heights in finals. Hodge is obviously not going to be kicking goals regularly
 

Noidnadroj

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If I had to back it with stats I’d just say ‘Gary Ablett junior’ and you wouldn’t even be able to respond
Yes, I also rate GAJ a superior H&A performer to Martin. I’ll add that GAJ was also a very good finals performer.

But if GAJ is head and shoulders above others, then it’s interesting that Martin has received Brownlow votes in 38.9% of games he has played. Second in history only to Fyfe at 44.9%. (GAJ is 36.7%)

So the narrative of Martin somehow meandering through H&A or not being an outstanding H&A performer and one of the best of all-time is not backed by any actual facts. He’s not as good as Gazza in H&A, but I put him behind very few others in H&A of the AFL era.

And for anyone you might rate above him in H&A, it’s a no contest against Martin in finals, which everyone agrees carry far more weight in GOAT discussions.





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PJays

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He’s not as good as Gazza in H&A, but I put him behind very few others in H&A of the AFL era.
Gazza and about 20 others, you mean.

Would Dusty even make the top 10 midfielders of the AFL era, based purely on H&A?

Gazza's record over 357 games makes him the GOAT of the AFL era. And he'd be right up there in the all time discussion.

And it's not like Gazza was a finals slouch either. He received Norm Smith votes in both 2008 and 2009.

Dusty has established an impressive body of work, standing up in big moments. But his overall body of work doesn't compare to Ablett's brilliance over a 357 game career.
 

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Richo83

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Similar things in terms of upping their game to absolute peak heights in finals. Hodge is obviously not going to be kicking goals regularly
I'd argue that Martin's finals record is more impressive, because I think finals Martin plays a harder more skillful game than Hodge. Hodge has also had some poor finals series, but people generally focus on the two Norm Smiths. He was poor to average in one or more game of the 2007, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2019 finals series.

If Martin is significantly better than these two both in home and away form and finals form, then the comparison doesn't really hold. The reason why Martin's finals form is heralded isn't just because of it's consistency, it's the quality. This is why I think Martin is in the conversation and Chapman and Hodge aren't. Care about the brownlow or don't, Martin's 2017 form was the kind of MVP form that Hodge or Chapman never had in a full season.

But fair enough, you think I'm putting Dusty too high. If he's not fourth as I have him, where do you put him? If we're rating other players like Swan and Pavlich ahead of him, then I think we're making quantity more important than quality. And some of these players who sit below the Abletts, Judd and Carey didn't play that long anyway. Swan only played 14 more games than Martin, Voss 45 more, Hird nine more, Buckley 16 more, Mitchell 63 more and so on. Yes, there are 300 gamers like Selwood, Goodes and Hodge, but I can't see how Martin doesn't get to 300 games anyway. This is why I'm happy to accept that the Abletts and Judd are ahead of him, because they did what he sometimes did before he did and more regularly, but the others? Franklin looks done as a player at 300 and Carey only played 244, the same as Martin (I have erased Adelaide Carey from my mind and it wasn't much anyway). The argument for Franklin seems to be "he was a freak and did crazy things", which reminds me of Martin. I'm happy for someone to illustrate why I'm biased, but I think Martin is a step up from the likes of Selwood, Goodes and Buckley. Martin reminds me of Akermanis in many ways but is a) more consistent and b) had a longer career.
 

Richo83

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Gazza and about 20 others, you mean.

Would Dusty even make the top 10 midfielders of the AFL era, based purely on H&A?

Gazza's record over 357 games makes him the GOAT of the AFL era. And he'd be right up there in the all time discussion.

And it's not like Gazza was a finals slouch either. He received Norm Smith votes in both 2008 and 2009.

Dusty has established an impressive body of work, standing up in big moments. But his overall body of work doesn't compare to Ablett's brilliance over a 357 game career.
Why would you judge midfielders (or any type of player) purely on the home and away season? Why would you judge any athlete ignoring their performance in finals matches?

I'd like to see this list of the ten midfielders of the AFL era who surpass Martin.
 

Noidnadroj

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Gazza and about 20 others, you mean.

Would Dusty even make the top 10 midfielders of the AFL era, based purely on H&A?

Gazza's record over 357 games makes him the GOAT of the AFL era. And he'd be right up there in the all time discussion.

And it's not like Gazza was a finals slouch either. He received Norm Smith votes in both 2008 and 2009.

Dusty has established an impressive body of work, standing up in big moments. But his overall body of work doesn't compare to Ablett's brilliance over a 357 game career.
Martin behind 20 others .... based on what exactly?

There are a range of measures to help judge H&A performance, with the main ones being:

1. Best & Fairest results
2. Brownlow Medal
3. All Australians
4. Coach’s Votes
5. AFL PA award

- Martin has finished top-3 in B&F a Richmond record 8 times. (Won it twice and once in his 11 seasons outside top-6 when he came 10th)
- He has won a Brownlow and finished top-10 about 7 times. He is second to Fyfe in history for % of games receiving Brownlow votes at 38%.
- He has made 4 x AA.
- He has won a coach’s award and AFLPA.

He has countless other Dreamtime awards and Ian Stewart medals etc.... which not all players have access to.

So based purely on tangible measurements, and taking into account longevity and durability there’s no way he’s not in the very upper echelon of players in H&A across any era you want to mention.

So to suggest there’s a plethora of players with superior H&A records is simply not true if based on a range of respected and tangible measurements. If it’s based on ‘opinion’ only then everyone’s entitled to that. I just don’t believe people are aware of the facts that should be used to put forward educated opinions.


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harrythetiger

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Gazza and about 20 others, you mean.

Would Dusty even make the top 10 midfielders of the AFL era, based purely on H&A?

Gazza's record over 357 games makes him the GOAT of the AFL era. And he'd be right up there in the all time discussion.

And it's not like Gazza was a finals slouch either. He received Norm Smith votes in both 2008 and 2009.

Dusty has established an impressive body of work, standing up in big moments. But his overall body of work doesn't compare to Ablett's brilliance over a 357 game career.
Only received the 10th most Brownlow votes of all time, conceding 30 or more games to every single player above him. Since 2000 he must be considered top 5, and only Ablett is clearly above him
 

PJays

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Only received the 10th most Brownlow votes of all time, conceding 30 or more games to every single player above him. Since 2000 he must be considered top 5, and only Ablett is clearly above him
Dusty is popular with the umpires.

And?

It's a midfielders award, voted by people who work everyday jobs during the week, and are paid to adjudicate the contest on weekends.
 

PJays

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Dusty essentially had one brilliant season. Much like Fyfe, Danger, and Neale also did in recent years.

But other than 2017, Martin's been a good player who's elevated himself into greatness by standing up in finals games.

A true clutch performer with huge performances in big finals. And that means he's an AFL great. No doubt.

But he's not in the all time discussion with people like Leigh Matthews and Gary Ablett Jr. People who consistently distinguished themselves at a genuinely elite level, weekly for 10+ years.

Not yet.

This whole thread is a bit of fun, pushed along by Richmond fans who presumably spent countless hours watching Grand Final replays during lockdown. But let's not kid ourselves - Dustin Martin is nowhere near the GOAT.

He's only been voted one of the best 22 players in the competition in 4 different seasons in his career!
 

bzparkes

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AA forward pocket based off this season...

Can't even crack the midfield and people want to claim he's the GOAT?

GOAT finals performer this century no doubt though. Very impressive to stand up time and time again in GF's however the opposition for each premiership has been pretty dire unfortunately. Looking good in easy wins isn't all that impressive.

That 2017 season though was pretty incredible.
 

Rich01

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AA forward pocket based off this season...

Can't even crack the midfield and people want to claim he's the GOAT?
Interesting isn’t it.
I’d have him ahead of Guthrie and Petracca in the midfield spot, but his versatility means he can be picked as a forward and another mid can get in. Which is great. It means the selectors can cheat a little and have Dusty, Danger and Bont all as forwards.

2020 wasn’t a great year for the AA team. The backline in particular looks a little flimsy compared to previous years.
 

bzparkes

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Interesting isn’t it.
I’d have him ahead of Guthrie and Petracca in the midfield spot, but his versatility means he can be picked as a forward and another mid can get in. Which is great. It means the selectors can cheat a little and have Dusty, Danger and Bont all as forwards.

2020 wasn’t a great year for the AA team. The backline in particular looks a little flimsy compared to previous years.
He seems to spend just as much time on the HF flank as he does mid these days. He's very strong one-out so I can understand why.

Guthrie and Petracca would've gotten the nod ahead of him (and Danger) due to actually playing the majority of the year in those positions.

Can't say I watched much of either of them though but there was a lot of hype about Petracca in particular.

AA team selection is always 'interesting' however.
 

Rich01

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He seems to spend just as much time on the HF flank as he does mid these days. He's very strong one-out so I can understand why.

Guthrie and Petracca would've gotten the nod ahead of him (and Danger) due to actually playing the majority of the year in those positions.

Can't say I watched much of either of them though but there was a lot of hype about Petracca in particular.

AA team selection is always 'interesting' however.
Yep. Guthrie and Petracca in the midfield of the AA team shows how weak this team was this year relative to others. Along with the backline.

Back on topic though, the greatest players I have seen in my time have all been players who could impact games through scoring.

Ablett Snr, Matthews, Lockett, Carey.

Ablett Jr the only one that played more mid than forward that fits in that group for mine.

Martin sits off the back end of that group.

But he’s still the best Richmond player I’ve seen play. And the best big game player I’ve seen. Ablett Snr, then Jnr probably aren’t far off in this respect but I think three Norm Smiths gives Martin the edge.
 

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