Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[PhatBoy]

I'm not sure few home and away wins for a team that's never made finals really means much in the GOAT conversation if you are talking about carrying teams. Carrying them to what? There has to be some sort success at the end of it for it to stack up.

Well I am.

They were literally Ablett, Bock, a couple of hasbeens And cast-offs, and 15-16 absolute rookies. Not especially good ones.

they are clearly never ever ever going to achieve anything in their first couple of years.

suddenly they are there, embedded in the 8, their best player gets injured and they go 1-6 and miss the finals.

it’s not like he can win them games from the grandstand so it’s not exactly his fault they didn’t make it. What it did was highlight exactly how good they were with him, and how bad they were without him. That in itself demonstrates how good he was

 

[juss]

Well I am.

They were literally Ablett, Bock, a couple of hasbeens And cast-offs, and 15-16 absolute rookies. Not especially good ones.

they are clearly never ever ever going to achieve anything in their first couple of years.

suddenly they are there, embedded in the 8, their best player gets injured and they go 1-6 and miss the finals.

it’s not like he can win them games from the grandstand so it’s not exactly his fault they didn’t make it. What it did was highlight exactly how good they were with him, and how bad they were without him. That in itself demonstrates how good he was

Sure a few games for half a season, good effort. Not really an argument for GOAT context though. He played there for years and you've given an example that lasts half a season.

For me, what separates GAJ is his exceptional record as an individual, his multiple MVPs and period where he was universally considered the best or just about the best player in the game for a ridiculously long and consistent period.

In terms of carrying teams to something that actually matters and impact on team career, then Ablett is lightyears behind Martin. Theres a reasonable case to be made that without Dusty, Richmond has 0 premierships from this era instead of 3. In 2007, even without Ablett Geelong had what, 8 other AAs that year?

 

[PhatBoy]

Sure a few games for half a season, good effort. Not really an argument for GOAT context though. He played there for years and you've given an example that lasts half a season.

For me, what separates GAJ is his exceptional record as an individual, his multiple MVPs and period where he was universally considered the best or just about the best player in the game for a ridiculously long and consistent period.

In terms of carrying teams to something that actually matters and impact on team career, then Ablett is lightyears behind Martin. Theres a reasonable case to be made that without Dusty, Richmond has 0 premierships from this era instead of 3. In 2007, even without Ablett Geelong had what, 8 other AAs that year?

You could put anyone. Anyone at all in that side in their first two seasons. God himself couldn’t have made them win games. At the first possible, absolutely earliest juncture at which the suppprt cast became respectable enough to at least compete, he had them doing it.

If a coach takes over a hopeless team that is stacked with kids, he’s not expected to do anything for a few years. Then invariably a time comes when those kids at the very least have some experience and they start to win games and everyone lauds the coach as a great developer and master mentor.

why doesn’t a playing equivalent get the same recognition

 

[WilloTree]

no KPF in Martin's era compares. Not Pavlich, Riewoldt or any other.

When you write things like that, it's hard to take you seriously. Pav was a 6 time All Australian in 4 different positions over 17 years.

You're rating Martin after 5 good years.

Take a breath.

 

[Richo83]

When you write things like that, it's hard to take you seriously. Pav was a 6 time All Australian in 4 different positions over 17 years.

You're rating Martin after 5 good years.

Take a breath.

Maybe not compares is a tad harsh as it implies they're not even in the same ballpark. Pavlich was a good KPF, but I can think of a lot of KPFs from the past 30 years which he was comparable to or not as good as. Not as good as Carey, Franklin or Richardson, comparable to the likes of Riewoldt and Brown. To me as a forward he's comparable to Hawkins, and I'd take Martin out of the two.

As for Pavlich's versatility, Martin could easily get into the AA team as a forward, midfielder, wingman or back flanker. He has already as a midfielder and forward, so the different positions doesn't really work. IMO if I'm going to consider you one of the best over the past 30 years or so you need to be one of the best in any position. I doubt Pavlich is that. As a backman he's not as good as Scarlett. As a CHF I'd take Franklin.

For the record, I'd also take Dangerfield over Pavlich. Pavlich was a great forward but even if you take away his years when he played as a defender, his goals per game isn't that high. If you take away his seasons where he doesn't play key forward, I reckon he's averaging around 2.3-2.4 goals per game. It's good, and it's on par with Brown and below the likes of Richardson, Franklin and Carey. Does that put him on the same shelf as Martin? IMO no.

 

[Richo83]

Ablett jnr and Martin IMO have similar peaks in terms of talent, and their ability on the field. The best game I've ever seen from both of them is comparable. What tips Ablett over is the longevity. But if Martin keeps going, admittedly he'll have a taper off later in his career, but keeps going, considering he's played eight less seasons than Ablett did, are they in the same conversation? Honest question. There just isn't that many players with his talent who, if he does, have performed for that long that consistently.

Which means IMO, the difference is, potentially, just time. I'm not seeing a massive drop off from Martin who rarely gets injured and could easily play his last days as a small forward. He also doesn't play a very physical style of game. If he doesn't keep it up, then yeah he stops being comparable to Ablett. Remember that after Ablett's eleventh year (this was Martin's eleventh) Ablett had been a star for roughly five or six years depending on who you ask. Started slowly but hit with a bang. And Martin has been a star for roughly... five or six depending on who you ask.

 

[HTT]

Ablett jnr and Martin IMO have similar peaks in terms of talent, and their ability on the field. The best game I've ever seen from both of them is comparable. What tips Ablett over is the longevity. But if Martin keeps going, admittedly he'll have a taper off later in his career, but keeps going, considering he's played eight less seasons than Ablett did, are they in the same conversation? Honest question. There just isn't that many players with his talent who, if he does, have performed for that long that consistently.

Which means IMO, the difference is, potentially, just time. I'm not seeing a massive drop off from Martin who rarely gets injured and could easily play his last days as a small forward. He also doesn't play a very physical style of game. If he doesn't keep it up, then yeah he stops being comparable to Ablett. Remember that after Ablett's eleventh year (this was Martin's eleventh) Ablett had been a star for roughly five or six years depending on who you ask. Started slowly but hit with a bang. And Martin has been a star for roughly... five or six depending on who you ask.

The thing that elevated GAJ was his consistency. He'd destroy you all year round for nearly a decade, whereas Dusty only really did that in 2017. Since then he's mostly coasted through the season (by his own standards anyway) and then lifted massively for finals.

GAJ only goes down as winning two brownlows, but he was favourite in each of 2007 and 2008, and polled 22 votes in 15 games in 2014 (winner polled 26). Run through these seasons again and he probably wins 5 brownlows more often than he wins two.

 

[JackOutback]

Maybe not compares is a tad harsh as it implies they're not even in the same ballpark. Pavlich was a good KPF, but I can think of a lot of KPFs from the past 30 years which he was comparable to or not as good as. Not as good as Carey, Franklin or Richardson, comparable to the likes of Riewoldt and Brown. To me as a forward he's comparable to Hawkins, and I'd take Martin out of the two.

As for Pavlich's versatility, Martin could easily get into the AA team as a forward, midfielder, wingman or back flanker. He has already as a midfielder and forward, so the different positions doesn't really work. IMO if I'm going to consider you one of the best over the past 30 years or so you need to be one of the best in any position. I doubt Pavlich is that. As a backman he's not as good as Scarlett. As a CHF I'd take Franklin.

For the record, I'd also take Dangerfield over Pavlich. Pavlich was a great forward but even if you take away his years when he played as a defender, his goals per game isn't that high. If you take away his seasons where he doesn't play key forward, I reckon he's averaging around 2.3-2.4 goals per game. It's good, and it's on par with Brown and below the likes of Richardson, Franklin and Carey. Does that put him on the same shelf as Martin? IMO no.

Richardson has three AAs, Pav six, and was more versatile (Richo pretty versatile at times but never played defence). Nick Riewoldt has five. It’s hardly the be-all-and-end-all statistic but I have Carey and Franklin tier one, Pav and Reiwoldt next. Richo had as much talent but I’d take both the others’ careers narrowly ahead.

 

[PhatBoy]

Ablett jnr and Martin IMO have similar peaks in terms of talent, and their ability on the field. The best game I've ever seen from both of them is comparable. What tips Ablett over is the longevity. But if Martin keeps going, admittedly he'll have a taper off later in his career, but keeps going, considering he's played eight less seasons than Ablett did, are they in the same conversation? Honest question. There just isn't that many players with his talent who, if he does, have performed for that long that consistently.

Which means IMO, the difference is, potentially, just time. I'm not seeing a massive drop off from Martin who rarely gets injured and could easily play his last days as a small forward. He also doesn't play a very physical style of game. If he doesn't keep it up, then yeah he stops being comparable to Ablett. Remember that after Ablett's eleventh year (this was Martin's eleventh) Ablett had been a star for roughly five or six years depending on who you ask. Started slowly but hit with a bang. And Martin has been a star for roughly... five or six depending on who you ask.

It’s more than longevity. It’s week to week dominance

 

[PhatBoy]

The thing that elevated GAJ was his consistency. He'd destroy you all year round for nearly a decade, whereas Dusty only really did that in 2017. Since then he's mostly coasted through the season (by his own standards anyway) and then lifted massively for finals.

GAJ only goes down as winning two brownlows, but he was favourite in each of 2007 and 2008, and polled 22 votes in 15 games in 2014 (winner polled 26). Run through these seasons again and he probably wins 5 brownlows more often than he wins two.

100 per cent spot on

 

[Noidnadroj]

Oh my ******* god since when was a goal from the pocket worth any more than one from the top of the square?

The mental gymnastics and ever shifting goal posts to try and claim Dusty is the GOAT is beyond ridiculous.

He will end up with a great record in the 4 x main things to judge H&A performance: Brownlow votes, coach’s votes, AA’s and B&F’s.

Then he has been BOG in 9 of 12 finals since the start of Richmond’s dynasty, including 3 x Norm Smiths and 3 x Ayres medals.

So not sure what gymnastics are required..?? But no matter which way it’s sliced and diced, whether you like it or not, when his career is over he will be in the conversation as GOAT. I know it irks many but on stats, awards, records and performances on the biggest stage of all, he will be in the conversation.

And heaven forbid he wins another NS ..... then there will no longer be a conversation





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[Noidnadroj]

The one in the last quarter where he brings it to ground in a contest with one hand, gathers with one hand, and promptly snaps it from 40m with his non preferred boot was reasonable I thought.
How many of Martin’s were goal of the week?

this is just getting ridiculous now

Nick Davis kicked four in 13 minutes in a semi final that were all brilliant. Running snap back over his shoulder towards the right forward pocket, contested mark against two opponents, sharks a pack and then breaks a tackle and snaps from 40, then somehow plucks a ball up from a pack of a dozen players and hammers it down onto his left boot with 9 seconds on the clock.

nah but no one has ever done it

Nice try .... his second goal was from a chest mark after a standard one-on-one contest (Josh Hunt didn’t contest at all, but nice try to re-write history).... then 20m out set shot directly in front. So even if you wanted to argue the mark was had difficulty, the goal itself was super simple.

So for something that happens ‘all the time’, it seems to be difficult providing examples .... but I’m sure it’s happened a lot, so I’ll keep waiting.


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[PhatBoy]

Nice try .... his second goal was from a chest mark after a standard one-on-one contest (Josh Hunt didn’t contest at all, but nice try to re-write history).... then 20m out set shot directly in front. So even if you wanted to argue the mark was had difficulty, the goal itself was super simple.

So for something that happens ‘all the time’, it seems to be difficult providing examples .... but I’m sure it’s happened a lot, so I’ll keep waiting.


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so the second cats player was just Arnold Rimmer, a hologram in a cats outfit


hahahahahaha so that was ordinary but Martin picking up a ball that sat up absolutely perfectly for him and shrugging a ‘tackle’ that was actually a hand brushing his jersey, could have been goal of the week.

mate if you want anyone to take you seriously take off the blinkers

 

[LanceRomance]

Meh, would you pick hird or Martin? I'd go hird... By a fair bit.

 

[Noidnadroj]

When you write things like that, it's hard to take you seriously. Pav was a 6 time All Australian in 4 different positions over 17 years.

You're rating Martin after 5 good years.

Take a breath.

There’s a common narrative that Dusty has had ‘5 good years’ .... not sure where it started, but time for some perspective:

1st season 2010: 4th in the B&F. 6 Brownlow Votes.
2011: 3rd in B&F and 12 votes.
2012: 10th and 5
2013: 2nd and 16
2014: 3rd and 13
2015: 2nd and 21
2016: 1st and 25
2017: 1st and 36
2018: 3rd and 19
2019: 6th and 23
2020: 2nd and 15

He holds the record with KB for most top-3 finishes in Richmond’s history at 8.

So the narrative that he has only had ‘5 good years’ is just blatantly wrong on every conceivable measure.

I mean 4th then 3rd in the B&F in your first 2 seasons and 18 Brownlow votes.... that’s rarified air for an 18yo draftee right there.

Then when making finals and winning lots of games from 2013-15, he finishes 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and gets 50 Brownlow votes ... but according to the common narrative only from 2016 did Dusty become any good...... interesting.


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[Noidnadroj]

so the second cats player was just Arnold Rimmer, a hologram in a cats outfit


hahahahahaha so that was ordinary but Martin picking up a ball that sat up absolutely perfectly for him and shrugging a ‘tackle’ that was actually a hand brushing his jersey, could have been goal of the week.

mate if you want anyone to take you seriously take off the blinkers

Davis’s second goal was a set shot 20m out directly in front .... unless of course the ‘goal of the week’ now takes into account the mark .... pretty sure it doesn’t. Or did Shaun Smith win Goal of the Year as well as Mark of the Year when he took that speccy on the goal line...?

So blinkers or not, give me a game where someone has kicked 4 or more high quality goals ...?? I’m even allowing H&A games ... still waiting ....


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[Noidnadroj]

so the second cats player was just Arnold Rimmer, a hologram in a cats outfit


hahahahahaha so that was ordinary but Martin picking up a ball that sat up absolutely perfectly for him and shrugging a ‘tackle’ that was actually a hand brushing his jersey, could have been goal of the week.

mate if you want anyone to take you seriously take off the blinkers

The second goal ? You mean contesting the ball, keeping his feet, gathering possession then dribbling it through off the outside of his boot from 45m... yeah, I see that every second week .....


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[Richo83]

Richardson has three AAs, Pav six, and was more versatile (Richo pretty versatile at times but never played defence). Nick Riewoldt has five. It’s hardly the be-all-and-end-all statistic but I have Carey and Franklin tier one, Pav and Reiwoldt next. Richo had as much talent but I’d take both the others’ careers narrowly ahead.

Pavlich seems more versatile because he was moved around more. It doesn't mean he was more versatile, just that his versatility was tested more. Richardson was the better key forward (better contested mark, kicked more goals per game, took crazy hangers etc) than Pavlich and I don't think Pavlich wins that many points as a key back given he didn't play there for that long.

But even if you accept that Pavlich was better than Richardson, better than Martin? That's a stretch.

 

[PhatBoy]

Davis’s second goal was a set shot 20m out directly in front .... unless of course the ‘goal of the week’ now takes into account the mark .... pretty sure it doesn’t. Or did Shaun Smith win Goal of the Year as well as Mark of the Year when he took that speccy on the goal line...?

So blinkers or not, give me a game where someone has kicked 4 or more high quality goals ...?? I’m even allowing H&A games ... still waiting ....


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Yeah because what I do, in case someone that I’ve never met, online, tries erroneously to claim that a nominated player has kicked four ‘goal of the week’ worthy goals in a grand final even though he hasn’t, is to sit and watch every game ever played and keep a notarised record of who and how every goal is kicked.

you remember it because you’re a tigers die hard who thinks Martin is the first player to be above average.

now you want to make the criteria for a good goal into only being a snap because it suits your argument.

tell me, does the player who crashes a pack and outmarks 4 opponents and kicks a team lifting goal get any less kudos for his act as a player who kicks a great snap?

do the point values differ?

 

[PhatBoy]

The second goal ? You mean contesting the ball, keeping his feet, gathering possession then dribbling it through off the outside of his boot from 45m... yeah, I see that every second week .....


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Oh ok so now what happens before he makes the defining move and takes possession DOES count.

he gathers possession cleanly and finishes nicely, in other words

 

[Richo83]

It’s more than longevity. It’s week to week dominance

Fair point, although again if he keeps going it's closer than you think. For me, based on how much Martin has left in his career it goes in order Ablett jnr, Ablett snr, Judd and then Martin, Franklin and Carey on equal footing then it becomes more murky (this is best players since mid 90s).

 

[PhatBoy]

Fair point, although again if he keeps going it's closer than you think. For me, based on how much Martin has left in his career it goes Ablett jnr, Ablett snr, Judd, Martin, Franklin, Carey then it becomes more murky (this is best players since mid 90s).

People think when you pick so and so ahead of so and so, that you’re saying you don’t rate them or something.

I DO rate Martin - my team was on the end of him in the biggest game of the year - but I just don’t have him in that company at the moment. Fair play to him he stands up repeatedly on the biggest stage and that’s a huge part of creating a legacy. But he’s not the first and won’t be the last to do that. Luke Hodge and Paul Chapman are two finals specialists I can think of straight off the top of my head who did similar things regularly, with the difference that the finals teams they played in probably had a fair bit more eye catching star power than the Tigers which makes it harder to stand out as clearly.

now Martin himself has probably been a better week to week player than Chapman in particular but my point is that the elevation in his game at the big end can only do so much to bridge the gap created in home and away footy.

 

[Noidnadroj]

There’s a common narrative that Dusty has had ‘5 good years’ .... not sure where it started, but time for some perspective:

1st season 2010: 4th in the B&F. 6 Brownlow Votes.
2011: 3rd in B&F and 12 votes.
2012: 10th and 5
2013: 2nd and 16
2014: 3rd and 13
2015: 2nd and 21
2016: 1st and 25
2017: 1st and 36
2018: 3rd and 19
2019: 6th and 23
2020: 2nd and 15

He holds the record with KB for most top-3 finishes in Richmond’s history at 8.

So the narrative that he has only had ‘5 good years’ is just blatantly wrong on every conceivable measure.

I mean 4th then 3rd in the B&F in your first 2 seasons and 18 Brownlow votes.... that’s rarified air for an 18yo draftee right there.

Then when making finals and winning lots of games from 2013-15, he finishes 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and gets 50 Brownlow votes ... but according to the common narrative only from 2016 did Dusty become any good...... interesting.


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Oh, I forgot to mention..... percentage of games receiving Brownlow votes:

Fyfe: 44.9%
Martin: 38.9%
Danger: 37.8%
GAJ: 36.7%
S.Mitchell: 35.6%
Swan: 35.3%
Judd: 34.7%
Selwood: 34.4%

So given everything, any narrative about Dusty’s home and away record precluding him from GOAT discussion is not factual based on all available measurements.



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[Noidnadroj]

Oh ok so now what happens before he makes the defining move and takes possession DOES count.

he gathers possession cleanly and finishes nicely, in other words

Ok .... fair enough points. Let me re-define.... There were 19 goals kicked in the Grand Final. If you ranked them 1-19, all of Martin’s are in the top-6, and arguably could be ranked the top-4. To do that is almost beyond comprehension under the pressure of a Grand Final.




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[Noidnadroj]

People think when you pick so and so ahead of so and so, that you’re saying you don’t rate them or something.

I DO rate Martin - my team was on the end of him in the biggest game of the year - but I just don’t have him in that company at the moment. Fair play to him he stands up repeatedly on the biggest stage and that’s a huge part of creating a legacy. But he’s not the first and won’t be the last to do that. Luke Hodge and Paul Chapman are two finals specialists I can think of straight off the top of my head who did similar things regularly, with the difference that the finals teams they played in probably had a fair bit more eye catching star power than the Tigers which makes it harder to stand out as clearly.

now Martin himself has probably been a better week to week player than Chapman in particular but my point is that the elevation in his game at the big end can only do so much to bridge the gap created in home and away footy.

On what measure in H&A analysis do you believe Dusty is not worthy ? Consistency? Quality? Goals? Longevity? And is there a stat to back you up or just ‘gut feel’?




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