Can Geelong do the impossible?

[KP78]

There is no way known a North Melbourne v Geelong final would be played at Etihad. It will be played at the G, where North has only played one game all year.

That would definitely suit me but would not be where I expect it to be played.

 

[Mantastic]

There won't be a final at Etihad, it will 100% be at the G.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

There won't be a final at Etihad, it will 100% be at the G.

Not between two Victorian teams, anyway.

 

[hk89]

The last five weeks, we've played five teams with a combined record of 59-26 (coming into their game against Geelong). We've won four and lost one of those games and our percentage over those five weeks is 131.05. There's not many teams above us that can match that form.

Essendon, and Adelaide via their Brisbane loss have proven to have been well below their best in recent weeks. You had some big outs against Adelaide, but they had important players out too, and you played them at home. You lost to a largely out of form WC, and had one good quarter against Hawthorn, and I doubt you can rely on jumping them again with your highest 1st quarter ever score against them. The St Kilda win was the most impressive IMO, but no decent wins against interstate teams away from home doesn't look good, given you'll likely have to travel at least once. I think Hawthorn might have issues too if they can't make top 2, as that will mean they have a high chance of travelling interstate, and will have lost to both Sydney and West Coast on the road by that stage, and will not have proven they can beat Adelaide in SA. Wouldn't mind meeting Cats again in finals, as I think the first quarter in the last game was somewhat of an unrepeatable aberration, despite our deplorable recent record against cats. I think the last few games might have given some cats fans some false optimisation, but if they can beat Sydney at home, I'll concede their late season form turnaround is the real deal, and with the evenness of the top 6, could be a chance to make GF, but still feel they'll lack the legs to get over the line against a team that will likely have had a rest week by then.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

There won't be a final at Etihad, it will 100% be at the G.

North vs Fremantle might be at Etihad.

 

[spudmaster]

North vs Fremantle might be at Etihad.

Play it at Tassie!

 

[Mantastic]

North vs Fremantle might be at Etihad.

OK that might. Cats/North won't be though.

 

[davey_magik]

Not sure if it has been mentioned but they could potentially play four straight games in Melbourne. Play home final vs north week 1, Sydney beat collingwood so collingwood week 2, play hawks in a prelim week 3.

Very unlikely, but it could happen. I think Geelong will lose away from home though in week two.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

They didnt win it from fourth or fifth though, they ended up third after home and away.

There has been no team win a flag by winning four games straight without the benefit of a double chance. Or even three for that matter.

Didn't the crows win 4 elimination finals in a row in 97??

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Didn't the crows win 4 elimination finals in a row in 97??

nope

Although they did win four finals in a row. First game wasnt an EF though

 

[KP78]

Didn't the crows win 4 elimination finals in a row in 97??

I think from memory the Crows finished in the bottom half of the 8, lost first round (but back then the 2 lowest placed losers got eliminated) and then won 3 straight for the flag.

 

[tiger dream]

In 1997, the Crows won 4 finals from 4th to win the Flag with the old final 8 system(1 v 8. 2 v 7. 3 v 6. 4 v 5) with the 2 lowest losers eliminated.
In 1998 still with the old finals system,The Crows who finished 5th, lost their 1st Qualifying final to Melbourne by 8 goals but being the 2nd highest loser got another go in the semi's.Then they won the next 3 to win the Grand final.
The run started with a semi V's Sydney winning that by 27pts,then pumping the doggies in the Preliminary and then beating Nth Melb in the Grand Final by 35pts with the same amount of scoring shots.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

nope

Although they did win four finals in a row. First game wasnt an EF though

They finished 4th and only the top 2 got a double chance so it was potentially an Elimination final. The lowest ranked teams obviously got eliminated, but you would treat it as elimination surely. There is no guarentee you would still be in if you lost.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

They finished 4th and only the top 2 got a double chance so it was potentially an Elimination final. The lowest ranked teams obviously got eliminated, but you would treat it as elimination surely. There is no guarentee you would still be in if you lost.

Not sure the top two sides ever BOTH lost their first finals games in the old McIntyre 8, considering they had the easy games, but point taken it was theortically possible to be eliminated from third or fourth.

 

[tiger dream]

Not sure the top two sides ever BOTH lost their first finals games in the old McIntyre 8, considering they had the easy games, but point taken it was theortically possible to be eliminated from third or fourth.

Well not the both of the Top 2 but Carlton in '94 and Geelong in '97 finished second after the H & A season but were knocked out in straight sets.

 

[gbatman]

can never write off Geelong, still capable of beating anyone and proven capable of beating the best. If they don't have injuries through the finals then look out.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Essendon, and Adelaide via their Brisbane loss have proven to have been well below their best in recent weeks. You had some big outs against Adelaide, but they had important players out too, and you played them at home. You lost to a largely out of form WC, and had one good quarter against Hawthorn, and I doubt you can rely on jumping them again with your highest 1st quarter ever score against them. The St Kilda win was the most impressive IMO, but no decent wins against interstate teams away from home doesn't look good, given you'll likely have to travel at least once. I think Hawthorn might have issues too if they can't make top 2, as that will mean they have a high chance of travelling interstate, and will have lost to both Sydney and West Coast on the road by that stage, and will not have proven they can beat Adelaide in SA. Wouldn't mind meeting Cats again in finals, as I think the first quarter in the last game was somewhat of an unrepeatable aberration, despite our deplorable recent record against cats. I think the last few games might have given some cats fans some false optimisation, but if they can beat Sydney at home, I'll concede their late season form turnaround is the real deal, and with the evenness of the top 6, could be a chance to make GF, but still feel they'll lack the legs to get over the line against a team that will likely have had a rest week by then.

If you're confident of knocking off Geelong, should we meet again in finals, based on the Round 19 Hathorn v Geelong game, I see no reason why Geelong supporters shouldn't be confident of beating Sydney, since our previous meeting against them played out pretty much the same as the Hawthorn V Geelong match.If the final is at Homebush (where the Swans traditionally do not play well), I would go into that game very confident right now.

To say we lost to an out of form West Coast is like saying Essendon lost to an out of form Geelong a few weeks ago, or North Melbourne lost to an out of form Hawthorn earlier in the season. The Eagles were obviously pumped up, they had some big inclusions (their captain and a Norm Smith Medallist) and they played very good footy. We lost three players who have combined for eight premierships (two of whom are All-Australians) in the lead-up to the game, had an eight game ruckman playing with a busted hand against Naitanui and Cox and lost the probable All-Australian FF halfway through the first quarter. Despite the loss, that was one of the gutsiest performances I've seen from the Cats all year. And if we can beat the Bulldogs and Sydney in our last two games, we're a very good chance to play the rematch at home.

It's just classic how you are saying the last few games have given us a sense of 'false optimisation', like we've been beating up on Melbourne, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide or something. Compare our recent run to the other 'in-form' teams in the top eight at the moment:

Sydney: St Kilda (h), Gold Coast (a), Carlton (a), Collingwood (h), Western Bulldogs (a)
Hawthorn: Collingwood (a), Essendon (a), Geelong (h), Port Adelaide (h), Gold Coast (h)
North Melbourne: Richmond (a), Melbourne (h), Western Bulldogs (a), Essendon (a), Collingwood (a)
Fremantle: GWS (h), Port Adelaide (a), West Coast (h), Adelaide (a), Richmond (h)

Which of those teams has had a tougher run than Geelong?

I won't be putting money on Geelong for the flag. But, unless we have some horrible path to the finals, because of our relatively low spot on the ladder (say West Coast in Perth, Adelaide in Adelaide, Sydney in Sydney and Hawthorn/Collingwood in Melbourne), I see no reason why Geelong supporters shouldn't go into every finals game optimistic.

 

[hk89]

If you're confident of knocking off Geelong, should we meet again in finals, based on the Round 19 Hathorn v Geelong game, I see no reason why Geelong supporters shouldn't be confident of beating Sydney, since our previous meeting against them played out pretty much the same as the Hawthorn V Geelong match.If the final is at Homebush (where the Swans traditionally do not play well), I would go into that game very confident right now.

Yup, that's fair enough, but depending on how other games go, you may will be playing Sydney after they've had a weeks break, and after two tough games of your own. The fact that finals are not played at the SCG is certainly a huge bonus for interstate teams that have to travel to Sydney for finals, but so is the double chance , and potential week off they may end up with. And to clarify, it is not so much that I'm super confident of beating Geelong in finals, I just like our chances there over travelling at the moment.

It's just classic how you are saying the last few games have given us a sense of 'false optimisation', like we've been beating up on Melbourne, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide or something. Compare our recent run to the other 'in-form' teams in the top eight at the moment:

Yup, you've had less super easy games that some other form sides, but I just don't rate wins over the current version of the Bombers and Adelaide at home as highly as say North beating Pies or Sydney beating WC in Perth. As I said, I'll be a convert if you can roll Sydney, even if it is at Skilled, and my own team has its own issues with teams it hasn't yet proved itself against (we get a chance to do so against two of them in the next two weeks). Surprised Hawks remain favourites without having top 2 sewn up, as I think it will be hard for any vic team outside of the top 2.

I won't be putting money on Geelong for the flag. But, unless we have some horrible path to the finals, because of our relatively low spot on the ladder (say West Coast in Perth, Adelaide in Adelaide, Sydney in Sydney and Hawthorn/Collingwood in Melbourne), I see no reason why Geelong supporters shouldn't go into every finals game optimistic.

With some luck with how the finals draw opens up (avoiding WC at home seems especially important, and not just for cats), they are not without a chance, just looks like a bridge too far to me. Either way, looks to be a cracker end to the season, with a great last two rounds to lead in to a finals with a few rematches of the last two home and away matches likely during the finals.

 

[Whiskers]

Sheesh some negative cats in here.
I would expect a bit more faith in a team that has provided great results over a period of time.
It might be tough but to give us no chance is pathetic.
Who can't we beat?
4 in a row ain't much tougher than 3 finals wins in a row considering the 1st one is likely to be against a 6th-8th side.

 

[Bollox]

Can do..IF..

IFFFF they lose to us again in Rnd 23 at the cattery.
Last year all that did was wake them out of a slumber of easy wins.
They can probably thank us for that much of it...winning each week by 150pts against bottom 8 mobs isnt really much of a prep for finals.

Going to be a bit difficult to interpret the result of that game in a cpl of weeks...if Sydney win does it mean anything other than we should now expect Geelong to improve ? If Geelong win does it mean Sydney are no good on a ground with no wings ?... or no good away from home after winning in every state this season ?..cant beat a top 8 team ? I guess the only result will be who gets home finals etc.

They can beat anyone on their day. Saying they "cant" is just dumb.

 

[Bollox]

Hmmmm...if we butter up and beat them again down there, surely their flag odds will pop for a moment, before memories click in and maybe even come in shorter than they were before. Best be quick if u want to back them in. Yeahhh nahhhhhh.