Can Geelong land all of Hopper, Smith and Ablett?

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Giant Heart

THE BEAST
Sep 25, 2016
666
751
Narellan
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Swifts Panthers, Wanderers, Thunder
Hi all!

I've been reading/hearing over the last week or so that Geelong is the frontrunner to secure the services of both Devon Smith and Jacob Hopper. Now, of course, I'd be disappointed if we lost either one of Smith or Hopper, but to lose them both to a competitor like Geelong would be more than irritating!

Obviously, the elephant in the room the whole year has been around Gary Ablett; the will he or won't he be at Gold Coast next year question, which has been of much intrigue to the wider AFL community. It looks almost certain now that, at the very least, Ablett will not be at the Suns next year.

With that in mind, and the only realistic suitor for Ablett being Geelong; that leaves the Cats with a conundrum. Do they forgo history and romanticism and look towards the future, or do they embrace Ablett back to the club, which will involve appeasing Gold Coast's wish of a decent pick and/or player from Geelong?

Or, as has been suggested by a few, can Geelong somehow find a way to secure all three? It'd be a huge task to land all three, given Geelong's reportedly low trade currency. Which then leads me to my next question: just how does Geelong manage to land all three?

Firstly, and correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that Geelong does not have a first round draft pick in 2017. From the little research I've done prior to creating this thread, I have learnt that Geelong has a second round draft pick which they secured from Carlton as a result of the Touhy trade last year. Other than their own second round pick, what else, exactly, do they have?

If all Geelong has is a round two draft pick in the early twenties, another round two pick which will most likely be in the mid thirties, plus a third and fourth round junk pick - it's not really adding up. Sure, Motlop is also rumoured to be out the door, which means that Geelong might get a compensation pick in the second round. Surely Motlop's not worth a first round pick?

What will GWS ask for in return for losing Hopper and Smith? Surely Smith is worth a late first round draft pick, whilst Hopper's age and potential sees him as comfortably a first round pick. As for Ablett - Gold Coast will not let him go easily, and with Cochrane demonstrating a penchant for being disagreeable, I'm really not sure how that will play out.

So, does the deal for all three get done? If so, how? How does GWS get sufficiently compensated by one club, with low currency, who is also chasing a player who'll attract some currency given he's still got a year left to run on his contract? To me, it just doesn't add up, unless I've missed something entirely?
 

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Hi all!

I've been reading/hearing over the last week or so that Geelong is the frontrunner to secure the services of both Devon Smith and Jacob Hopper. Now, of course, I'd be disappointed if we lost either one of Smith or Hopper, but to lose them both to a competitor like Geelong would be more than irritating!

Obviously, the elephant in the room the whole year has been around Gary Ablett; the will he or won't he be at Gold Coast next year question, which has been of much intrigue to the wider AFL community. It looks almost certain now that, at the very least, Ablett will not be at the Suns next year.

With that in mind, and the only realistic suitor for Ablett being Geelong; that leaves the Cats with a conundrum. Do they forgo history and romanticism and look towards the future, or do they embrace Ablett back to the club, which will involve appeasing Gold Coast's wish of a decent pick and/or player from Geelong?

Or, as has been suggested by a few, can Geelong somehow find a way to secure all three? It'd be a huge task to land all three, given Geelong's reportedly low trade currency. Which then leads me to my next question: just how does Geelong manage to land all three?

Firstly, and correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that Geelong does not have a first round draft pick in 2017. From the little research I've done prior to creating this thread, I have learnt that Geelong has a second round draft pick which they secured from Carlton as a result of the Touhy trade last year. Other than their own second round pick, what else, exactly, do they have?

If all Geelong has is a round two draft pick in the early twenties, another round two pick which will most likely be in the mid thirties, plus a third and fourth round junk pick - it's not really adding up. Sure, Motlop is also rumoured to be out the door, which means that Geelong might get a compensation pick in the second round. Surely Motlop's not worth a first round pick?

What will GWS ask for in return for losing Hopper and Smith? Surely Smith is worth a late first round draft pick, whilst Hopper's age and potential sees him as comfortably a first round pick. As for Ablett - Gold Coast will not let him go easily, and with Cochrane demonstrating a penchant for being disagreeable, I'm really not sure how that will play out.

So, does the deal for all three get done? If so, how? How does GWS get sufficiently compensated by one club, with low currency, who is also chasing a player who'll attract some currency given he's still got a year left to run on his contract? To me, it just doesn't add up, unless I've missed something entirely?


There is a pinned post at the top of the page that updates after every round that tells you what draft picks each team holds.

Screen Shot 2017-08-25 at 8.05.44 pm.png

So Geelong have two picks worth something in this years draft, pick 21 and pick 33. Pick 21 will get you a decent prospect in this years draft. Pick 33 will possibly get you a nice small forward prospect or a project player.

Geelong can also trade either their 2018 first round pick or a combination of their 2018 second, third and fourth round picks. (from the AFL website -If a club trades a future first-round selection, it may not trade any other future selection from that same draft. But if a club keeps its future first-round selection, it can trade any of its future selections from other rounds.)

That's barely enough trade currency. Geelong will have to either trade out player/s for draft picks or players.

 
2017 - potentially 4 2nd rounders - motlop and menzel compensation as band 3 or 4

2018 1st rounder

Those 5 selections should be enough to satisfy the Giants

Ablett i think will be swapped for a fringe player like Lang
 
Weren't they saying Ablett is on a front ended contract and only owed $500k in 2018

Massively front ended. So GC won't be letting him go for nothing as they don't get cap relief. I reckon they would prefer to eat the rest of his contract and make him retire then trade to Geelong for F'All.
 

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Smith and Hopper for Carlton's 2017 2nd and Geelong's 2018 first is probably doable with maybe another token pick added on. I think Smith's probably worth around #20 on the open market, whereas Hopper's probably around 8-15.

Ablett depends on how willing Gold Coast are to play ball. He isn't worth a lot in a bubble but his contract status is an issue. I don't think Geelong get that one done.
 
Trading next year's first would mean no first round pick used in:
2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 needing two traded in to meet the 2 in four year requirement.

But that could be as simple as trading a pick like #9 for #16 and #17. Problem solved.
That rule doesn't apply until 2019, so Geelong are free to trade their 2018 pick if they desire.
 
Trading next year's first would mean no first round pick used in:
2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 needing two traded in to meet the 2 in four year requirement.

The AFL make rules on the run. I reckon they would change the rule to let trades happen.
 
One thing I will ask, what are the rules re: Ablett retiring and then nominating for the draft? Of course it doesn't mean he'll necessarily get to Geelong, but I'm not sure who else would be keen on him as things stand.
 
One thing I will ask, what are the rules re: Ablett retiring and then nominating for the draft? Of course it doesn't mean he'll necessarily get to Geelong, but I'm not sure who else would be keen on him as things stand.

Gold Coast would retain him on their list for 2018
 
One thing I will ask, what are the rules re: Ablett retiring and then nominating for the draft? Of course it doesn't mean he'll necessarily get to Geelong, but I'm not sure who else would be keen on him as things stand.
A players contract is held by the club they play for until October 31 of the last year of their contract. Whether they retire or any other reason, the rights to the player are retained.

Mal Michael made that happen
 

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