Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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tonygeeks

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I don’t think the author is being totally objective when you add that GWS has collingwoods first round pick and hawthorn had their second rounder
The writer hasn’t been objective by not including drafts that haven’t happened yet ?

You know you can look up the meaning of words on the internet now


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Pessimistic

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A casual glance earlier in this thread which is probably on its 5th revolution by now will show posts asking what’s so special about drafting untried youngsters in the first rounds of the draft compared to known quantities traded in who were themselves first round picks.

you get less of their career, but you get a much better hit ratio than 45% which is the ratio of draftees making it
 

Pessimistic

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The writer hasn’t been objective by not including drafts that haven’t happened yet ?

You know you can look up the meaning of words on the internet now


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‘it was the ‘collingwood good. Hawthorn bad’ vibe of the article. What have Collingwood to show for trading out of the 2021 draft, other than a f-s who they, will get anyway?
 

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H00t

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A casual glance earlier in this thread which is probably on its 5th revolution by now will show posts asking what’s so special about drafting untried youngsters in the first rounds of the draft compared to known quantities traded in who were themselves first round picks.

you get less of their career, but you get a much better hit ratio than 45% which is the ratio of draftees making it
Getting great players through trading cost an awful lot more than drafting. Plus it’s really challenging to get them to come to you. Most players don’t change clubs.

There are benefits to both. To a challenger it’s worth the known quantity to a rebuilding team it’s the draft.
 

Pessimistic

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Getting great players through trading cost an awful lot more than drafting. Plus it’s really challenging to get them to come to you. Most players don’t change clubs.

There are benefits to both. To a challenger it’s worth the known quantity to a rebuilding team it’s the draft.
‘It really depends on each opportunity on its own merits. But but saying do one for 3-4 years then the other for 3-4, aren’t you denying yourself 50% of the opportunities?
And my personal take on how much traded in players cost (eg Jeremy Cameron) is because less clubs are totally sold on the hard rebuild, trading out players for a run at the draft lottery.

There’s not so many Ben McEvoys or Brian Lakes to be had now.
 

H00t

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‘It really depends on each opportunity on its own merits. But but saying do one for 3-4 years then the other for 3-4, aren’t you denying yourself 50% of the opportunities?
And my personal take on how much traded in players cost (eg Jeremy Cameron) is because less clubs are totally sold on the hard rebuild, trading out players for a run at the draft lottery.

There’s not so many Ben McEvoys or Brian Lakes to be had now.
Do agree it depends on each opportunity. Trading 3rds and 4ths for players who are about to explode and want to come is good value.

Trading 1sts not as much.

Do agree the clubs act as a whole which changes the value of each strategy. Hawks and Tigers traded picks and won flags. Now everyone trades picks and wins flags. A lot of value in going the opposite strategy to everyone else.
 

tonygeeks

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‘it was the ‘collingwood good. Hawthorn bad’ vibe of the article. What have Collingwood to show for trading out of the 2021 draft, other than a f-s who they, will get anyway?
I don’t know I’m no draft nuffer but that Poulter kid looks pretty good to me , not sure if he was one of the players they got by trading out


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WWSD

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First and second-round picks taken
CLUB201520162017201820192020TOTAL
GWS34352320
Brisbane34343118
Gold Coast34144117
Adelaide21134516
North Melbourne33213416
Carlton42322215
Essendon43012414
Fremantle23223214
Sydney12224314
Melbourne20323313
Port Adelaide14034113
Collingwood12121512
Richmond11423112
West Coast22440012
Western Bulldogs32231112
Geelong02313211
St Kilda1232019
Hawthorn2000237

Gives a reality how far back Hawthorn are starting from, particularly compared to other rebuilding sides Adelaide & North.
To be fair, Adelaide had a lot of players exit their club which then resulted in them getting first and second round picks in return. They didn’t exactly go out of their way to go to the draft. A lot of it was self inflicted given how poorly run they were off the field.
 

WWSD

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Interesting there's now talk around this, though it's probably just the media reading BigFooty again.

In any case, it's a smart move. Mitchell is the one to trade.
Day and Grainger-Barras are set to return. Newcombe will likely debut this week. A couple of senior players will likely be traded out for some draft picks at the end of the year.

Hawthorn could have four picks inside the top 25 in this year’s draft. :eyes:
 

Gavin Excell

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Day and Grainger-Barras are set to return. Newcombe will likely debut this week. A couple of senior players will likely be traded out for some draft picks at the end of the year.

Hawthorn could have four picks inside the top 25 in this year’s draft. :eyes:
This Grainger barass kid under pressure
Been mentioned regularly this thread
 

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HairyO

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The table provides a pretty clear picture of where the rebuilding clubs are at in terms of top end talent that they've brought in though.
No. It tells you how many 1st and 2nd round picks clubs have used. It says nothing about how good the players actually are.

In fact, of the top 8 clubs for picks only Brisbane are currently a chance this year.

Of the bottom 8 clubs for picks, 5 are in the 8 and 2 are a chance this year.
 

Psicosis

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No. It tells you how many 1st and 2nd round picks clubs have used. It says nothing about how good the players actually are.

In fact, of the top 8 clubs for picks only Brisbane are currently a chance this year.

Of the bottom 8 clubs for picks, 5 are in the 8 and 2 are a chance this year.
Interesting take.

The clubs in the 8 aren’t really the clubs that should be taking a look at the data in that table IMO.

Hawks being 17th on the ladder and last in the league for 1st & 2nd round picks over an extended period, probably should IMO.
 

HairyO

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Interesting take.

The clubs in the 8 aren’t really the clubs that should be taking a look at the data in that table IMO.

Hawks being 17th on the ladder and last in the league for 1st & 2nd round picks over an extended period, probably should IMO.
And we will have anywhere from 3 to 5 picks this year.
 

Moppey

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Not sure if relevant but here goes.
Hawthorn would have to have at least 15 or more players on their list who were originally taken in the first two rounds.
So if the implication is they lack quality then i disagree.
I would say the vast majority who were traded in were relatively young ie Scrimshaw original pick 7 traded in at age 20. even Ben McEvoy an original pick 9 was only 24 when the hawks paid to get him. They were actually targeting players who had done their apprenticeship at other clubs

Tom Mitchell cost a bit but he was still relatively young at 23. Omeara cost a bit more but only 22.
The one that cost too much imo was the Wingard trade they gave up a very promising kid in Burton pick 15 pick 35 and a 2019 4th rounder for Wingard a 25 year old and a 2019 3rd rounder. I think it was pretty clear by then that they needed to get some more young talented players in rather than trading one out along with a couple of very good picks.
Impey an original pick 21 came to the club at age 22 imo this sort of trading is sustainable a lot of the time.
 

TylerDurden

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Not sure if relevant but here goes.
Hawthorn would have to have at least 15 or more players on their list who were originally taken in the first two rounds.
So if the implication is they lack quality then i disagree.
I would say the vast majority who were traded in were relatively young ie Scrimshaw original pick 7 traded in at age 20. even Ben McEvoy an original pick 9 was only 24 when the hawks paid to get him. They were actually targeting players who had done their apprenticeship at other clubs

Tom Mitchell cost a bit but he was still relatively young at 23. Omeara cost a bit more but only 22.
The one that cost too much imo was the Wingard trade they gave up a very promising kid in Burton pick 15 pick 35 and a 2019 4th rounder for Wingard a 25 year old and a 2019 3rd rounder. I think it was pretty clear by then that they needed to get some more young talented players in rather than trading one out along with a couple of very good picks.
Impey an original pick 21 came to the club at age 22 imo this sort of trading is sustainable a lot of the time.
Scully and Patton were former pick 1's.
Burgoyne a top 10 pick.
 

Simon_Nesbit

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Not sure if relevant but here goes.
Hawthorn would have to have at least 15 or more players on their list who were originally taken in the first two rounds.
So if the implication is they lack quality then i disagree.
I would say the vast majority who were traded in were relatively young ie Scrimshaw original pick 7 traded in at age 20. even Ben McEvoy an original pick 9 was only 24 when the hawks paid to get him. They were actually targeting players who had done their apprenticeship at other clubs

Tom Mitchell cost a bit but he was still relatively young at 23. Omeara cost a bit more but only 22.
The one that cost too much imo was the Wingard trade they gave up a very promising kid in Burton pick 15 pick 35 and a 2019 4th rounder for Wingard a 25 year old and a 2019 3rd rounder. I think it was pretty clear by then that they needed to get some more young talented players in rather than trading one out along with a couple of very good picks.
Impey an original pick 21 came to the club at age 22 imo this sort of trading is sustainable a lot of the time.
This is essentially my thoughts also. The club (or Clarkson/Wright) were pushing a "Player first" mantra - at the time there were four major transactions that put them deep into this position - but even if we got "fair" value on those trades - it's still not going to arrest the slide after six years of domination.
  • Letting Mitchell, Lewis go for peanuts to get them an extra year and $$$ in their pocket.
  • Hill traded for #23, when should have been a first round pick. Fremantle had pick #7 and we should have held out for that with a 2nd round (say 29) going back
  • Making a promise to Jaegar not to take him through the PSD and to complete the trade quickly (the original agreed trade of our 1st and 2nd a fair trade) - Cockrain saw an opportunity to try and establish his authority and we were exploited badly. We should have just made O'Meara walk to PSD, as it was our doctors he wanted to work with. No-one else would have picked a broken player on 750kpa.
  • Allowing Port to get to Burton first, twist the story and then letting him go for virtually nothing. We might not have rated him internally as highly as some, but he was 20 and already comfortably in the best 22, with media pumping a 'future AA potential'. Again, #15 and #35 for Wingard not too much. Burton should have replaced the #35, and possibly an earlier pick back too.

Mitchell was 33, but still a top-50 player. Far better than Higgins who went for #30 at a similar age. Let's say Hawthorn kept their picks (rd 3, 4, 5) and Eagles gave up #37.
Lewis was 29, and a top-50 player. These players are usually going for late 1st pick, but Melbourne had already traded away, so lets say Hawthorn kept their picks and Melbourne gave up #29 and #48.
Cochrane didn't get involved, Hawks original offer of #7 and #36 goes through.
Hawks keep 2017 Rd.2 (no Carlton pick trade)
Hawks keep 2017 Rd.1, #23 and #36 (no Saints trade, #7 and #36 to GC for O'Meara).
Wingard/Burton - we keep #35, they still give their 2019 rd.3


End result, all the players end up in the same spot, something closer to value for Hawthorn on each trade.

Hawthorn get:
2016 37, 48
2017 Rd.2 (Hawks)
2018 #15
2019 Rd.3 (port)

So one additional first round pick, two additional second rounds and two thirds. On average you'd expect three decent players from that, which adds depth, but not a lot of AA-level quality.

We'd still be bad, just less bad.
 

Caj

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Not sure if relevant but here goes.
Hawthorn would have to have at least 15 or more players on their list who were originally taken in the first two rounds.
So if the implication is they lack quality then i disagree.
I would say the vast majority who were traded in were relatively young ie Scrimshaw original pick 7 traded in at age 20. even Ben McEvoy an original pick 9 was only 24 when the hawks paid to get him. They were actually targeting players who had done their apprenticeship at other clubs

Tom Mitchell cost a bit but he was still relatively young at 23. Omeara cost a bit more but only 22.
The one that cost too much imo was the Wingard trade they gave up a very promising kid in Burton pick 15 pick 35 and a 2019 4th rounder for Wingard a 25 year old and a 2019 3rd rounder. I think it was pretty clear by then that they needed to get some more young talented players in rather than trading one out along with a couple of very good picks.
Impey an original pick 21 came to the club at age 22 imo this sort of trading is sustainable a lot of the time.
I don't disagree with what you are saying, however every man and his dog except Clarko could see the golden reign was over. That top 4 finish in 2016(?) was an anomoly due in large part to Clarko's brilliant coaching, but the only way the club was ever heading was down. The dream that Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard would lead to any serious success when the rest of the list was such a mess was short sighted and will take the club a long time to recover from.

Would Hawks supporters trade the 3 peat for an extended period at the bottom? You bet they would, but Clarko's overrating of his list will mean that the recovery is going to take a lot longer than what it needed to.
 

HairyO

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Not sure if relevant but here goes.
Hawthorn would have to have at least 15 or more players on their list who were originally taken in the first two rounds.
So if the implication is they lack quality then i disagree.
I would say the vast majority who were traded in were relatively young ie Scrimshaw original pick 7 traded in at age 20. even Ben McEvoy an original pick 9 was only 24 when the hawks paid to get him. They were actually targeting players who had done their apprenticeship at other clubs

Tom Mitchell cost a bit but he was still relatively young at 23. Omeara cost a bit more but only 22.
The one that cost too much imo was the Wingard trade they gave up a very promising kid in Burton pick 15 pick 35 and a 2019 4th rounder for Wingard a 25 year old and a 2019 3rd rounder. I think it was pretty clear by then that they needed to get some more young talented players in rather than trading one out along with a couple of very good picks.
Impey an original pick 21 came to the club at age 22 imo this sort of trading is sustainable a lot of the time.
We lost Burton and gained Scrimshaw. It wasnt a trade done in a vacuum.

Do the Dogs have 15 1st or 2nd round picks?

Their entire backline is Rookies and 3rd round picks isnt it?
 

Pessimistic

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I don't disagree with what you are saying, however every man and his dog except Clarko could see the golden reign was over. That top 4 finish in 2016(?) was an anomoly due in large part to Clarko's brilliant coaching, but the only way the club was ever heading was down. The dream that Mitchell, O'Meara and Wingard would lead to any serious success when the rest of the list was such a mess was short sighted and will take the club a long time to recover from.

Would Hawks supporters trade the 3 peat for an extended period at the bottom? You bet they would, but Clarko's overrating of his list will mean that the recovery is going to take a lot longer than what it needed to.
my take is the midfield without omeara and mitchell would be even more bereft, we’d be in this position earlier, and posters would have a different beef with the club. I think they were just balancing out the list, which had become unbalanced due to the threepeat
 

H00t

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my take is the midfield without omeara and mitchell would be even more bereft, we’d be in this position earlier, and posters would have a different beef with the club. I think they were just balancing out the list, which had become unbalanced due to the threepeat
In this position earlier means able to get out of it earlier. If we had a shocking 2018 due to no Mitchell and JOM, finish below the dogs and pick up smith. Worps and Smith would have us much more comfortable with the clubs direction now.

Like you I agree that they were balancing out the list. It just feels to me it’s like trying to patch a tiny hole on the titanic. Our list was always ending up on the bottom. Building the new ship should have been the goal.
 

Pessimistic

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In this position earlier means able to get out of it earlier. If we had a shocking 2018 due to no Mitchell and JOM, finish below the dogs and pick up smith. Worps and Smith would have us much more comfortable with the clubs direction now.

Like you I agree that they were balancing out the list. It just feels to me it’s like trying to patch a tiny hole on the titanic. Our list was always ending up on the bottom. Building the new ship should have been the goal.
‘deliberately bottoming out is risky too. The saints were looking like a good advert for the policy, but not so much now
 

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