Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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Would have thought this thread title is a little redundant now. Have ditched the trading in stars route and are embracing the draft again, trying to get as many good picks as they can.

Question should now be about how far away they are *IF* they get an average or better strike rate at the draft in the next 2-3 years.
 

Altum Volantes

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They are a winning club, they’ll be back again within the next 2-3 years.

Mitchell will have a rocky start - he seems a frosty guy who isn’t in the ‘boy’s club/good bloke’ club, so he’ll get no breaks from the meedja but ultimately he will get the team back to the top.
 

deanc

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They are a winning club, they’ll be back again within the next 2-3 years.

Mitchell will have a rocky start - he seems a frosty guy who isn’t in the ‘boy’s club/good bloke’ club, so he’ll get no breaks from the meedja but ultimately he will get the team back to the top.
Good summary - and I can also predict a few prickly post match pressers forthcoming, not quite your grumpy Malthouse level, but Sam won't be afraid with 'next question!' if/when refusing to comment on dumb queries..!
 
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Kappa

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They are a winning club, they’ll be back again within the next 2-3 years.

Mitchell will have a rocky start - he seems a frosty guy who isn’t in the ‘boy’s club/good bloke’ club, so he’ll get no breaks from the meedja but ultimately he will get the team back to the top.
They were a winning club under Clarkson and his assistants, that's all changed now...
 

Jack Green

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They were a winning club under Clarkson and his assistants, that's all changed now...
Correct.
Melbourne under Norm Smith , Richmond under Hafey, Hawthorn under Jeans, Brisbane under Mathews. Nothing is a given, The Kennett attitude of a couple of years of hitting the draft and then another decade of continued success does not make it magically happen!!
What happens now? Will Mitchell mantain the winning culture and stamp his own culture on the club, or will it be back to mid 90's with the Hawks appointed favourite sons as failed coaches and years of mediocrity??
Time will tell, but the winning club culture of the previous 20 years didn't save them from a decade or two in the wilderness 1991-2007, and there are no guarantees this time will be any different :think:
 

Blackhawk42

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Personally great for Bruest who is a class player to finish a one club player, but if I was a Hawk fan ! would 100% wanted Bruest out the door to fast track the rebuild.

The other positive to come from retaining Breust is the influence he has on his younger teammates. Dylan Moore credits his breakout season to Punky taking him under his wing. We drafted Seamus Mitchell at pick 30 last year who will also learn that smaller forward craft under Luke. The lessons he can give our next generation of forwards could be just as valuable as anybody we trade in at pick 13.
 

Jack Green

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The other positive to come from retaining Breust is the influence he has on his younger teammates. Dylan Moore credits his breakout season to Punky taking him under his wing. We drafted Seamus Mitchell at pick 30 last year who will also learn that smaller forward craft under Luke. The lessons he can give our next generation of forwards could be just as valuable as anybody we trade in at pick 13.
That's very true. Certainly not all doom and gloom retaining him. However, potentially makes the rebuild slower . 2001 draft had netted Hodge and Mitchell years before Clarkson's arrival. Mitchell doesn't appear to have that leg up!! 2004/5 Clarkson got a draft hand of 4 in 20 in consecutive seasons! Mitchell hasn't got that leg up either without priority picks and trade out of players with currency. And it's an 18 team not 16 team comp to boot.
If you read between the lines Clarko's comments post game the past 18 months , he would say how more difficult to rebuild is now, and that it will be a slow rebuild. I think most Hawkers are slowly but surely starting to accept this reality.
 

Pessimistic

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Correct.
Melbourne under Norm Smith , Richmond under Hafey, Hawthorn under Jeans, Brisbane under Mathews. Nothing is a given, The Kennett attitude of a couple of years of hitting the draft and then another decade of continued success does not make it magically happen!!
What happens now? Will Mitchell mantain the winning culture and stamp his own culture on the club, or will it be back to mid 90's with the Hawks appointed favourite sons as failed coaches and years of mediocrity??
Time will tell, but the winning club culture of the previous 20 years didn't save them from a decade or two in the wilderness 1991-2007, and there are no guarantees this time will be any different :think:
‘yes we really did it tough

btw it was money problems. Hawks in the top 6 clubs now with cap space to burn, save your ‘concern’ for such as Collingwood
 

Jack Green

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‘yes we really did it tough

btw it was money problems. Hawks in the top 6 clubs now with cap space to burn, save your ‘concern’ for such as Collingwood
Yep, Pies total list management and salary cap disaster. Expect them to be in for some lean years as well. 'Concern' -;)

Regards to money problems - amount of $ clubs make doesn't correlate to given success. Otherwise the big 4 in Melbourne would have been dominating the scene indefinitely , probably similar to the EPL. North in the mid 90's a classic example of building a successful era on a shoestring budget with limited support and facilities. Collingwood and Carlton now examples of limited success with enormous support.

And yes, the mid 1990's -you should never forget as a Hawthorn fan after decades of continued success, you almost lost your club forever :think:
Nothing is a given.
 

Jack Green

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I have us finishing top 4 and making the prelim at bare minimum

How dare you crush my hopes and dreams :p
:p :p :p:p Thought you just got home still bladdered from the nightclub with a post like that ,Then realised we're still in lockdown. :p
Appreciate the humour ,but I reckon the vast majority of Hawkers are now accepting of their situation👍
 

GWT6

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That's very true. Certainly not all doom and gloom retaining him. However, potentially makes the rebuild slower . 2001 draft had netted Hodge and Mitchell years before Clarkson's arrival. Mitchell doesn't appear to have that leg up!! 2004/5 Clarkson got a draft hand of 4 in 20 in consecutive seasons! Mitchell hasn't got that leg up either without priority picks and trade out of players with currency. And it's an 18 team not 16 team comp to boot.
If you read between the lines Clarko's comments post game the past 18 months , he would say how more difficult to rebuild is now, and that it will be a slow rebuild. I think most Hawkers are slowly but surely starting to accept this reality.
Hawthorn also did their tanking early, got 2 top picks in 2004, which they nailed, then peaked at the perfect time. Their list was approaching it's prime when everyone else was watching GC and GWS get the pick of the draft for several years.

No disrespect to Clarkson, I think he is the greatest coach I've seen in my lifetime, but he had everything line up perfectly. I can't see Mitchell getting that lucky.
 

H00t

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They were a winning club under Clarkson and his assistants, that's all changed now...
Emphasis on were we’ve struggled under Clarko’s last 4 of 5 years where only 2018 went alright but we didn’t play like a top 4 team and finals sorted us out.

Part of the reason was because we ignored the draft and it’s why Clarko is gone. Now it’s Mitchell’s job to see us through the rebuild
 

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parsons nose

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The Hawks experience with offloading Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis for pretty much nothing in the way of significant draft picks suggests that that strategy might not be the wisest course of action. Whatever Hawthorn were trying to achieve, it didn't work. We'd get basically nothing for Cotchin, Edwards or Riewoldt compared to the value they have inside the club as mentors, and they all only have 2022 left on their respective contracts anyway so I'd imagine next year is the swansong for each of them. I dare say Richmond will hit free agency big time time next year with about $2M/year freed up. Dusty's going nowhere while even the merest skerrick of finals footy is still within our reach - we've all seen what he does in September.

I realise they were a bit short on list spots, but I'm really surprised that the Suns didn't throw an offer at Richmond, Collingwood and Geelong for Cotchin, Pendles and/or Selwood in Hodge-esque style roles.

From a Tigers supporter pov, and I know there's a fair bit of discussion on the Richmond board about this and at both ends of the argument, we're probably obligated to keep the list reasonable intact for one more crack. If we'd had a full and solid pre-season and a half-decent run with injury this year and still ended up 12th, it'd definitely be time to clean out and re-build. But with so many extraneous variables knocking the team out of contention in 2021, there's a thought that we'll bank on a better roll of the dice in 2022 and see what transpires. But if we flop again, whatever that looks like, it's time to build a new generation. With 4 picks inside 30 and another 2 very early 3rd rounders the rebuild is effectively happening simultaneously anyway.

I certainly don't blame the Hawks for hanging on for one more crack at a flag straight after the three-peat. Whatever the disappointment at where they're at now, at least it's not steeped in bitter regret at missing the opportunity of a fourth. They'd banged three of the hot sisters - can't blame them for propositioning the fourth, even though it ended up costing them a smack in the face.
Hawthorn weren’t bold enough after the threepeat. And you can’t blame them for that. It became apparent that we were on the decline in 2017.That would have been the time to trade out Smith, Gunston, Breust and Stratton et.al. In that year they still had good trade currency. The guys that win you premierships are the absolute stars of which the top teams have two or three, possibly four. When Hodge and Mitchell went, the guys second tier players didn’t step up to assume their mantle they plateaued.

Like Hawthorn, Richmonds output is disproportionately tied to the likes of Martin and Riewoldt. When these guys go, Lynch will still be Lynch, Edwards will still be Edwards and Prestia will be Prestia. They will be a year older and they will be sated. With the benefit of Hawthorn’s hindsight, these guys still have some trade currency and now is the time to bite the bullet with them. It’s easy to be seduced by the idea that the show rolls on. But club fortunes are dictated as much by the gains your opposition have made as it is your own club‘s capacity to improve. And looking at Melbourne’s improvement, even the most optimistic Richmond fan would concede it‘s going to be an uphill battle to knock them off their perch with the current list.
 

Jack Green

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Hawthorn also did their tanking early, got 2 top picks in 2004, which they nailed, then peaked at the perfect time. Their list was approaching it's prime when everyone else was watching GC and GWS get the pick of the draft for several years.

No disrespect to Clarkson, I think he is the greatest coach I've seen in my lifetime, but he had everything line up perfectly. I can't see Mitchell getting that lucky.
Yes, timing is everything and the stars certainly aligned themselves well for Clarko's Hawks . And yes personally I don't see Mitchell getting that lucky.
 

Jack Green

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Emphasis on were we’ve struggled under Clarko’s last 4 of 5 years where only 2018 went alright but we didn’t play like a top 4 team and finals sorted us out.

Part of the reason was because we ignored the draft and it’s why Clarko is gone. Now it’s Mitchell’s job to see us through the rebuild
2 things in 2018 a few weeks apart clouded their view IMO. Making top 4 and Box Hill coming from the clouds to win the flag [ which was a bloody great effort mind you] Both seemed to suggest the genius of Clarko, the winning culture and their systems and structures would keep the show rolling!!!
This led to Clarko's arrogant ,draft week are some clubs grand finals comments , and ignored the draft again to bring in Wingard. And out of curiosity have a look at the Box Hill premiership side of 2018, and the amount and quality of young talent who have come through on to the Hawthorn list. :think:

Got serious credits in the bank mind you, but very few criticism's or words of caution about his strategy. It will now be up to Mitchell to try and right the ship. This as your CEO alluded to in recent times, will be by no means a quick process.
 

Mitchell Madness

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Hawthorn also did their tanking early, got 2 top picks in 2004, which they nailed, then peaked at the perfect time. Their list was approaching it's prime when everyone else was watching GC and GWS get the pick of the draft for several years.

No disrespect to Clarkson, I think he is the greatest coach I've seen in my lifetime, but he had everything line up perfectly. I can't see Mitchell getting that lucky.
Ah yes, the old hawthorn tank - winning games late in the season to avoid the lowest possible finish...

The new teams may have prevented some clubs from.getting the missing piece, it also prevented hawthorn from doing the same thing
 

Jack Green

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Hawthorn weren’t bold enough after the threepeat. And you can’t blame them for that. It became apparent that we were on the decline in 2017.That would have been the time to trade out Smith, Gunston, Breust and Stratton et.al. In that year they still had good trade currency. The guys that win you premierships are the absolute stars of which the top teams have two or three, possibly four. When Hodge and Mitchell went, the guys second tier players didn’t step up to assume their mantle they plateaued.

Like Hawthorn, Richmonds output is disproportionately tied to the likes of Martin and Riewoldt. When these guys go, Lynch will still be Lynch, Edwards will still be Edwards and Prestia will be Prestia. They will be a year older and they will be sated. With the benefit of Hawthorn’s hindsight, these guys still have some trade currency and now is the time to bite the bullet with them. It’s easy to be seduced by the idea that the show rolls on. But club fortunes are dictated as much by the gains your opposition have made as it is your own club‘s capacity to improve. And looking at Melbourne’s improvement, even the most optimistic Richmond fan would concede it‘s going to be an uphill battle to knock them off their perch with the current list.
Absolutely. Spot on with your Hawks post dynasty. The Hawks position now is a cautionary tale for the Tigers 5-6 years on. 👍
 

Blackhawk42

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Hawthorn weren’t bold enough after the threepeat. And you can’t blame them for that. It became apparent that we were on the decline in 2017.That would have been the time to trade out Smith, Gunston, Breust and Stratton et.al. In that year they still had good trade currency. The guys that win you premierships are the absolute stars of which the top teams have two or three, possibly four. When Hodge and Mitchell went, the guys second tier players didn’t step up to assume their mantle they plateaued.

Like Hawthorn, Richmonds output is disproportionately tied to the likes of Martin and Riewoldt. When these guys go, Lynch will still be Lynch, Edwards will still be Edwards and Prestia will be Prestia. They will be a year older and they will be sated. With the benefit of Hawthorn’s hindsight, these guys still have some trade currency and now is the time to bite the bullet with them. It’s easy to be seduced by the idea that the show rolls on. But club fortunes are dictated as much by the gains your opposition have made as it is your own club‘s capacity to improve. And looking at Melbourne’s improvement, even the most optimistic Richmond fan would concede it‘s going to be an uphill battle to knock them off their perch with the current list.

IMO, if our post-2018 moves had included only bringing in Scrimshaw and going to the draft, followed by not wasting list spaces on Patton and Scully after that, then we'd be better placed now.

Thankfully Kosi, Moore, Jiath, Bramble and Reeves look like serious players with Kosi the highest draft selection of that group but still coming in the 50's.
 

Jack Green

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IMO, if our post-2018 moves had included only bringing in Scrimshaw and going to the draft, followed by not wasting list spaces on Patton and Scully after that, then we'd be better placed now.

Thankfully Kosi, Moore, Jiath, Bramble and Reeves look like serious players with Kosi the highest draft selection of that group but still coming in the 50's.
Brought in other trades in that time-frame though like Frost 28, Hartigan 30, Phillips 25 who aren't world beaters and Phillips at least aside won't be part of the next premiership tilt.
Guys you've mentioned [ Moore really surprised :thumbsu: ] but those 5 don't look like being great players do they?? You mention Scrimshaw - very good player and his ceiling I think far higher than the other 5 youngsters mentioned.
 

GWT6

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Ah yes, the old hawthorn tank - winning games late in the season to avoid the lowest possible finish...

The new teams may have prevented some clubs from.getting the missing piece, it also prevented hawthorn from doing the same thing
A couple of late wins to avoid the wooden spoon once the priority pick was guaranteed is still a tank, but that' not the point, and most clubs have done it.

My point was, Clarkson walked into a side that had recently drafted Hodge, Mitchell, Franklin, Roughead, Lewis, with high picks, all about to hit their prime for the next decade. Mitchell doesn't have that luxury.
 

Jack Green

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A couple of late wins to avoid the wooden spoon once the priority pick was guaranteed is still a tank, but that' not the point, and most clubs have done it.

My point was, Clarkson walked into a side that had recently drafted Hodge, Mitchell, Franklin, Roughead, Lewis, with high picks, all about to hit their prime for the next decade. Mitchell doesn't have that luxury.
100% correct - so if Hawthorn fans are expecting a similar 3-4 year timeline from 2005 -8 , then IMO they are going to be very disappointed with Sam Mitchell[ which would be very unfair to him] As already stated, Clarko had generational teenage forwards Franklin and Roughy in his pocket late 2004 , who would go on and kick 180 goals between them 3 - 4 years later en route to a flag. Call me cynical and a poor judge of footballl talent, but I just don't see this with the Jeka's , Kosi's and Mitch Lewis of this world. Time will tell, but I think patience and realism [ which possibly haven't been Hawthorn traits for the past few years ] need to be the order of the day for the incoming coach :think:
 

Blackhawk42

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Brought in other trades in that time-frame though like Frost 28, Hartigan 30, Phillips 25 who aren't world beaters and Phillips at least aside won't be part of the next premiership tilt.
Guys you've mentioned [ Moore really surprised :thumbsu: ] but those 5 don't look like being great players do they?? You mention Scrimshaw - very good player and his ceiling I think far higher than the other 5 youngsters mentioned.
Those trade ins filled needs and all have been solid to good pick ups.

Also, don't rate Jiath or Kosi after this seasons form?
 

GhostofJimJess

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Hawthorn weren’t bold enough after the threepeat. And you can’t blame them for that. It became apparent that we were on the decline in 2017.That would have been the time to trade out Smith, Gunston, Breust and Stratton et.al. In that year they still had good trade currency. The guys that win you premierships are the absolute stars of which the top teams have two or three, possibly four. When Hodge and Mitchell went, the guys second tier players didn’t step up to assume their mantle they plateaued.

Like Hawthorn, Richmonds output is disproportionately tied to the likes of Martin and Riewoldt. When these guys go, Lynch will still be Lynch, Edwards will still be Edwards and Prestia will be Prestia. They will be a year older and they will be sated. With the benefit of Hawthorn’s hindsight, these guys still have some trade currency and now is the time to bite the bullet with them. It’s easy to be seduced by the idea that the show rolls on. But club fortunes are dictated as much by the gains your opposition have made as it is your own club‘s capacity to improve. And looking at Melbourne’s improvement, even the most optimistic Richmond fan would concede it‘s going to be an uphill battle to knock them off their perch with the current list.
Yeah, very fair. Can't disagree with any of that. Either way it goes in 2022, there'll be a seismic shift in the Richmond list going forward.
 

Jack Green

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Those trade ins filled needs and all have been solid to good pick ups.

Also, don't rate Jiath or Kosi after this seasons form?
They've filled needs no doubt ' Solid pick ups but you can only have so many solid pick ups when you don't have the talent at the pointy end. And I suppose as the guns have slowly retired or moved on over the past 5 years, you have more of the solid role players and less elite A graders and hence you miss finals 4 of the past 5 years.

Went to the Hawks/Saints and Hawks /Blues games this year. Kosi will be a player as a 3rd stringer tall forward for mine - CJ struggled in the 2 games I personally saw but was a surprise packet in 2021 . Bit more sizzle than the snag for mine . Early days - don't rate them is harsh. Reckon they'll be handy , maybe better than handy AFL players . Do I rate them like a young Buddy or Roughy 15 years ago at the start of your rebuild .... :think:
 

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