Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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TheBrownDog
May 5, 2006
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So Hawks have a pretty good group in that experienced category, a good promising young group in the < 23 category with improvement left ……. what would really enhance the list is becoming a destination club again! This plays a big part in recent premiership teams ……. to fill the missing pieces.

Mixture of win now and win later players. But not winning now.
 

Jack Green

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Seven selections inside the top 30 in the last three years still isn’t good enough apparently. :$
Depends who you talk to. Isn't good enough? Think these figures are correct, but suspect if not, someone will point it out :thumbsu:

2019 2 inside top 30 including a 13
2020. 2 inside 30 including a 6
2021 3 inside 30 including a 7.

Your correct, In that 3 year cycle 7 inside top 30 and 2 top 7 or below.


2004 5 inside top 26 . including a 2, 5, 7
2005 5 inside top 22 including a 3,6
2006 4 inside top 40. including a 6.

In that 3 year cycle 14 inside top 40 and 6 top 7 or below.

And that is not counting 3 years earlier in 2001 when Hawthorn began their rebuild, trading for picks to have 5 inside 36 including the prized first pick. 1,16,20,32,36.

3 years earlier in 2018 you traded out your most promising young player Ryan Burton and first round pick [ which became Xavier Duursma ]for Chad Wingard. Think Kosi [ who looks promising ] was your first pick in the early 50's !!!

Isn't good enough apparently. Time will tell. Before , during and straight after Clarkson's arrival , Hawthorn hadn't avoided the elite end of the draft . In a 6 year stretch from 2001-2006 they were all over it like a cheap suit. This time around is very different. :think:
 

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Jack Green

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So Hawks have a pretty good group in that experienced category, a good promising young group in the < 23 category with improvement left ……. what would really enhance the list is becoming a destination club again! This plays a big part in recent premiership teams ……. to fill the missing pieces.
Well hindsight is wonderful, but if you had kept Burton now 24 and drafted Duursma now 21 , rather than recruiting Wingard now 28. Your list balance would be better placed as a developing side looking years into the future, would it not?
 

Pessimistic

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Depends who you talk to. Isn't good enough? Think these figures are correct, but suspect if not, someone will point it out :thumbsu:

2019 2 inside top 30 including a 13
2020. 2 inside 30 including a 6
2021 3 inside 30 including a 7.

Your correct, In that 3 year cycle 7 inside top 30 and 2 top 7 or below.


2004 5 inside top 26 . including a 2, 5, 7
2005 5 inside top 22 including a 3,6
2006 4 inside top 40. including a 6.

In that 3 year cycle 14 inside top 40 and 6 top 7 or below.

And that is not counting 3 years earlier in 2001 when Hawthorn began their rebuild, trading for picks to have 5 inside 36 including the prized first pick. 1,16,20,32,36.

3 years earlier in 2018 you traded out your most promising young player Ryan Burton and first round pick [ which became Xavier Duursma ]for Chad Wingard. Think Kosi [ who looks promising ] was your first pick in the early 50's !!!

Isn't good enough apparently. Time will tell. Before , during and straight after Clarkson's arrival , Hawthorn hadn't avoided the elite end of the draft . In a 6 year stretch from 2001-2006 they were all over it like a cheap suit. This time around is very different. :think:

Compare burton to kosi. Interested in what your definition ‘most promising’ means (option 4 Jack Watts?)

is iit a case all these ‘magic rebuild’ stories coincide with the bumper year 2001? Has there been a 2001 since? Is it folly to expect there to be one, even if the chances or rebuild coinciding) seem like one in twenty?
 
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Pessimistic

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Well hindsight is wonderful, but if you had kept Burton now 24 and drafted Duursma now 21 , rather than recruiting Wingard now 28. Your list balance would be better placed as a developing side looking years into the future, would it not?

would it have been duursma? Whatother players went 3 picks either side? There’s a danger a club can hook into ‘years into the future’ and sell its fans the seven magic beans trick
 

Jack Green

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Well hindsight is wonderful, but if you had kept Burton now 24 and drafted Duursma now 21 , rather than recruiting Wingard now 28. Your list balance would be better placed as a developing side looking years into the future, would it not?
Compare burton to kosi. Interested in what your definition ‘most promising’ means (option 4 Jack Watts?)

is iit a case all these ‘magic rebuild’ stories coincide with the bumper year 2001? Has there been a 2001 since? Is it folly to expect there to be one, even if the chances or rebuild coinciding) seem like one in twenty?
Great drafts help or super drafts . 2001 was one - 2004 another . early days but 2018 which the Hawks heavily by passed looks like in time, it could be another.
Yeah, Burton hasn't amounted to be much of a player. Port supporters may disagree, Very handy utility , and be happy for him to be at your club.
But 2017 he was the second coming of Leigh Mathews and a better version of Bontempelli . Some of the Hawthorn forecasts on him were really over the top.
Its more the strategy of trading your most promising player plus first rounder for established talent. And Burton did not want to go.
Interesting the bloke he was traded for, got right on the front foot on social media to put a stop to him leaving the place 2 months ago.
 

Jack Green

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would it have been duursma? Whatother players went 3 picks either side? There’s a danger a club can hook into ‘years into the future’ and sell its fans the seven magic beans trick
Didn't have to be Duursma - he was taken at the pick you relinquished. There's a danger a club can hook into years in the future. Fair enough. but.........
look at what the Hawks did 2001 through trade , 2004 /5 with the help of now virtually gone priority picks. I gather they drafted kids with all their multiple picks ? Few hits and few misses. But I say this again and again. It was the quantity of the picks and quality [ top 10] picks. Mitchell has not got this leg -up.
And that is why , the timeframe of the next rebuild will not replicate the old .
 

xmarksthespot

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It is incredible. And I'm as guilty as anyone for it doing so. Could we all make a New Years resolution not to post anything on this forum ever again :think:
Depends who you talk to. Isn't good enough? Think these figures are correct, but suspect if not, someone will point it out :thumbsu:

2019 2 inside top 30 including a 13
2020. 2 inside 30 including a 6
2021 3 inside 30 including a 7.

Your correct, In that 3 year cycle 7 inside top 30 and 2 top 7 or below.


2004 5 inside top 26 . including a 2, 5, 7
2005 5 inside top 22 including a 3,6
2006 4 inside top 40. including a 6.

In that 3 year cycle 14 inside top 40 and 6 top 7 or below.

And that is not counting 3 years earlier in 2001 when Hawthorn began their rebuild, trading for picks to have 5 inside 36 including the prized first pick. 1,16,20,32,36.

3 years earlier in 2018 you traded out your most promising young player Ryan Burton and first round pick [ which became Xavier Duursma ]for Chad Wingard. Think Kosi [ who looks promising ] was your first pick in the early 50's !!!

Isn't good enough apparently. Time will tell. Before , during and straight after Clarkson's arrival , Hawthorn hadn't avoided the elite end of the draft . In a 6 year stretch from 2001-2006 they were all over it like a cheap suit. This time around is very different. :think:
You lasted six posts.
 

matey

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Well hindsight is wonderful, but if you had kept Burton now 24 and drafted Duursma now 21 , rather than recruiting Wingard now 28. Your list balance would be better placed as a developing side looking years into the future, would it not?

Who knows I don’t have a crystal ball like yourself but since the Wingard deal was done Hawks have probably turned over it’s list more than any other side in the comp. Maybe this was the catalyst that changed the Hawks into going full rebuild mode ……… the Wingard deal could be the best thing that ever happened! Having said this Wingard is a senior player cherished by many Hawk fans including myself.
 

Jack Green

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Who knows I don’t have a crystal ball like yourself but since the Wingard deal was done Hawks have probably turned over it’s list more than any other side in the comp. Maybe this was the catalyst that changed the Hawks into going full rebuild mode ……… the Wingard deal could be the best thing that ever happened! Having said this Wingard is a senior player cherished by many Hawk fans including myself.
So 3-4 years ago you weren't a rap for Burton like most Hawks, and were all for the Wingard trade :think:
 

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Pessimistic

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Didn't have to be Duursma - he was taken at the pick you relinquished. There's a danger a club can hook into years in the future. Fair enough. but.........
look at what the Hawks did 2001 through trade , 2004 /5 with the help of now virtually gone priority picks. I gather they drafted kids with all their multiple picks ? Few hits and few misses. But I say this again and again. It was the quantity of the picks and quality [ top 10] picks. Mitchell has not got this leg -up.
And that is why , the timeframe of the next rebuild will not replicate the old .

because they found themselves at the bottom of the ladder? Even after getting several good players in 2001? Schwab famously said they were aiming for a premiership in 2004. It wasn’t intentional by any stretch
 

Pessimistic

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Great drafts help or super drafts . 2001 was one - 2004 another . early days but 2018 which the Hawks heavily by passed looks like in time, it could be another.
Yeah, Burton hasn't amounted to be much of a player. Port supporters may disagree, Very handy utility , and be happy for him to be at your club.
But 2017 he was the second coming of Leigh Mathews and a better version of Bontempelli . Some of the Hawthorn forecasts on him were really over the top.
Its more the strategy of trading your most promising player plus first rounder for established talent. And Burton did not want to go.
Interesting the bloke he was traded for, got right on the front foot on social media to put a stop to him leaving the place 2 months ago.

duursma was a great pick. The others around not so much. Devil is in the detail

of course this has been covered a few times in this thread

B4E997BD-760F-41BD-B128-4B44C0E951A4.jpeg
 

Freomaniac

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because they found themselves at the bottom of the ladder? Even after getting several good players in 2001? Schwab famously said they were aiming for a premiership in 2004. It wasn’t intentional by any stretch
Well its 2022 now. Freos board is aiming for 3 top 4 finishes by 2025.

That means 3 preliminary finals between 2022-25. Even as a Freo fan i find that very stupid and unlikely to happen

Freo would be lucky to make a preliminary final once between now and 2025
 

Pessimistic

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Well its 2022 now. Freos board is aiming for 3 top 4 finishes by 2025.

That means 3 preliminary finals between 2022-25. Even as a Freo fan i find that very stupid and unlikely to happen

Freo would be lucky to make a preliminary final once between now and 2025

i think the communication is internal as much as external. . Have everyone working towards giving the club the best chance and the talent gap may not be quite as wide.

on the other hand have a ‘let’s be ready to go in three years’ the defeatist approach could be self fulfilling and perpetual

But if you’ve got early picks, use them. I dont think one person in this thread is arguing against that
 

RUNVS

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This thread is still going , incredible !

Especially as the premise of the thread has clearly been settled. Hawthorn tried to use a method other than the draft to keep their list strong and in the end they did have to go back to the draft. The last 2 drafts have proven Hawthorn are now looking to build from the draft and hopefully have another run at the flag in a few years time.
 

matey

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Good table. I must admit I don't know a lot of these names. A very very good pick. Which of course can make the Wingard trade look worse than it is.

As I said before we love having Wingard in the brown and gold and there’s still many things to play out here but another positive for the Hawks that you highlight like a beacon is that the two prominent people behind that decision aren’t at the club anymore. The Hawks expect individuals to be responsible for their “do, don’t ‘think, do” actions …….. the Hawks don’t muck around! Thanks for highlighting 👍
 

Freomaniac

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i think the communication is internal as much as external. . Have everyone working towards giving the club the best chance and the talent gap may not be quite as wide.

on the other hand have a ‘let’s be ready to go in three years’ the defeatist approach could be self fulfilling and perpetual

But if you’ve got early picks, use them. I dont think one person in this thread is arguing against that
Again.... It depends on how it's translated.

Again, Freo would be lucky to get one preliminary final by 2025.

Hawks could have different expectations for the players and coaching staff.

Spend 2022 and possibly 2023 in the bottom 6 then in 2024 contend for finals. Say if hawks finish bottom 4 in 2022. Thats a top 5 pick.

Hawks could go into the draft to get the next buddy Franklin or Luke Hodge.

Or trade pick 5 for pick 10 and a 2023 1st rounder. Hell even trade pick 5 for picks 12 and 20 to get a Jack Gunston and Issac Smith.

There's so many ways it can be done
 

HairyO

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So 3-4 years ago you weren't a rap for Burton like most Hawks, and were all for the Wingard trade :think:

Burton's 2nd year was great but his 3rd year was sideways at best.

I think the problem was, the expectation would be that he would continue to improve. I would have liked him to stay but at Port he has shown himself to be a solid player - but I dont imagine him being the one leading them to a flag.

We replaced Burton with Scrimshaw. I would say he is every bit as good and he cost us nothing in trade.

And Wingard is someone who can lead a team to a flag. He has had some incredible games for us, but the issue is consistency. Which is always a problem for a small forward. Which is often caused by the midfielders.

We have made quite a few changes with our midfield in the last half of 2021,plus our 1st pick in the draft was a highly rated midfield, so I dare say we will see changes.

People who look at a single trade only by itself and not in context are invariably wrong. I would think we would not have made the Burton trade unless we knew Scrimshaw was coming. So that trade evens out.

Then we look at the rest of the trade. How does Wingard compare to the other small forwards around the Duursma pick (given our focus was on small forwards)?
 

Jack Green

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Burton's 2nd year was great but his 3rd year was sideways at best.

I think the problem was, the expectation would be that he would continue to improve. I would have liked him to stay but at Port he has shown himself to be a solid player - but I dont imagine him being the one leading them to a flag.

We replaced Burton with Scrimshaw. I would say he is every bit as good and he cost us nothing in trade.

And Wingard is someone who can lead a team to a flag. He has had some incredible games for us, but the issue is consistency. Which is always a problem for a small forward. Which is often caused by the midfielders.

We have made quite a few changes with our midfield in the last half of 2021,plus our 1st pick in the draft was a highly rated midfield, so I dare say we will see changes.

People who look at a single trade only by itself and not in context are invariably wrong. I would think we would not have made the Burton trade unless we knew Scrimshaw was coming. So that trade evens out.

Then we look at the rest of the trade. How does Wingard compare to the other small forwards around the Duursma pick (given our focus was on small forwards)?
Fair call. If it was my club [ and you picked the same player as Port did with the pick you gave them] I'm taking a 21 year old Duursma and 24 year old Burton over a 28 year old Wingard in a heartbeat. Of course when you did the trade you didn't expect to miss finals 3 years running and consecutive bottom 6 finishes . You thought [ and I don't just mean the club] but the vast bulk of supporters as well that you would be contending. In hindsight, a bad mis-read of the list . And no you weren't the first and will not be the last club to do this.

And yep, Burton when I've seen him is more than handy , but if you looked at some of the Hawk postings 3-4 years ago, he was going to be a superstar. Scrimshaw is a good player . Like him, and imagine most Hawk supporters would to - and why not. I'll try and put this in perspective. We picked up Callum Wilkie now 25 as a mature age rookie. Hasn't missed a game in 3 years , now in the leadership group, Think 4th and 7th in last two b and f counts. Has put Reiwoldt , Gunston even Franklin when he had to play full back last year out of business. Terrific player for us. Similar type to Scrimshaw as the 6'3 creative or lock down back flanker. Couple of years older than Scrimshaw - played 60 games to 50 games. Wilkie's career has been better to date Some Saints fans may disagree but I don't think Wilkie is a superstar or a star. One of the first picked mind you. Bloody dependable and has defeated opponents far more talented than himself.
For the next 3-4 years if he could mantain his last 3 year standard I would be chuffed. But if the club is going to contend .it's the Max King's. Jayde Gresham's, Hunter Clarke's . Rowan Marshall's who need to join Steele as bona-fide A graders.

I remember Clarko describing Harry Morrison and Jarman Impey as potential A graders a couple of years ago. Well he was the coach , so you would expect him to pump up his players. I do think Hawk fans over recent years have tended to over-rate the talent on the list. [ like the club did] I think Burton was very much an example. I'd be interested who you think are potential A graders on the list . IMO the Sants have one - Jack Steele over the past 2 seasons . And that probably explains why we have been stuck in the middle band of sides, over the past 2 seasons.
 

Jack Green

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Again.... It depends on how it's translated.

Again, Freo would be lucky to get one preliminary final by 2025.

Hawks could have different expectations for the players and coaching staff.

Spend 2022 and possibly 2023 in the bottom 6 then in 2024 contend for finals. Say if hawks finish bottom 4 in 2022. Thats a top 5 pick.

Hawks could go into the draft to get the next buddy Franklin or Luke Hodge.

Or trade pick 5 for pick 10 and a 2023 1st rounder. Hell even trade pick 5 for picks 12 and 20 to get a Jack Gunston and Issac Smith.

There's so many ways it can be done
It's interesting as a Fremantle supporter without premiership success for a quarter of a century or a Saints supporter for nearly half a century, how we have a very cautious optimism at best, for our clubs.

The last 2 years both Freo and the Saints have comfortably beaten the Hawks [ I think] and last year gave them a real hiding and been developing and building their lists over the last few years .[ Saints tackled it a bit differently mind you] Like Longmire as a coach and Ratten has a 50% win /loss at both Blues and Saints over 9 years. [ good not great coach IMO]
We hope or think we could sneak finals , and also with 18 sides in the comp understand there is a chance we wont play off in a preliminary the next 3-4 years.

Hawthorn have a new coach , huge list turnover , coming off consecutive bottom 6 finishes , and a quite a significant % of their fans have them ahead of both Freo and the Saints this year and playing finals :think:
 
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