Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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Pessimistic

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Fair call. If it was my club [ and you picked the same player as Port did with the pick you gave them] I'm taking a 21 year old Duursma and 24 year old Burton over a 28 year old Wingard in a heartbeat. Of course when you did the trade you didn't expect to miss finals 3 years running and consecutive bottom 6 finishes . You thought [ and I don't just mean the club] but the vast bulk of supporters as well that you would be contending. In hindsight, a bad mis-read of the list . And no you weren't the first and will not be the last club to do this.

And yep, Burton when I've seen him is more than handy , but if you looked at some of the Hawk postings 3-4 years ago, he was going to be a superstar. Scrimshaw is a good player . Like him, and imagine most Hawk supporters would to - and why not. I'll try and put this in perspective. We picked up Callum Wilkie now 25 as a mature age rookie. Hasn't missed a game in 3 years , now in the leadership group, Think 4th and 7th in last two b and f counts. Has put Reiwoldt , Gunston even Franklin when he had to play full back last year out of business. Terrific player for us. Similar type to Scrimshaw as the 6'3 creative or lock down back flanker. Couple of years older than Scrimshaw - played 60 games to 50 games. Wilkie's career has been better to date Some Saints fans may disagree but I don't think Wilkie is a superstar or a star. One of the first picked mind you. Bloody dependable and has defeated opponents far more talented than himself.
For the next 3-4 years if he could mantain his last 3 year standard I would be chuffed. But if the club is going to contend .it's the Max King's. Jayde Gresham's, Hunter Clarke's . Rowan Marshall's who need to join Steele as bona-fide A graders.

I remember Clarko describing Harry Morrison and Jarman Impey as potential A graders a couple of years ago. Well he was the coach , so you would expect him to pump up his players. I do think Hawk fans over recent years have tended to over-rate the talent on the list. [ like the club did] I think Burton was very much an example. I'd be interested who you think are potential A graders on the list . IMO the Sants have one - Jack Steele over the past 2 seasons . And that probably explains why we have been stuck in the middle band of sides, over the past 2 seasons.

That’s my take. Hawks lost three champion movers if not full time mids after 2016. Trading in better than average (who still have a few years to finish their reputation) as few years younger but not raw balanced up the list which was still quite balanced for better than average players at each end.
I now see a list which is quite well balanced age and position wise but lacking enough game changers like you say. If things go well from here the recent draftees can have the luxury of honing their craft in the reserves, or make the seniors if they warrant it. Setting up competition for spots too.
Why wouldn’t hawthorn expect to over achieve in finals? 1991 2001 and 2008 are probably some of the weakest finals sides ever from hawthorn but they hit 2 flags and a prelim. Also played but rarely won finals 1992 1993 1994 1996 2000

plenty of teams would take 2 flags 18 years apart in an 18 team comp, asterisks and all

Cyril not leaving, Mitchell and Sicily not missing a season each, one or two good free agents and who knows. We now know it wasn’t to be but wouldn’t it havebeen derelict not to try?

we could have done without the vickery, Patton and Scully issues there’s probably been as many others taking up list spots who were less high profile, indeed there were a few just before and after the threepeat.
 

Jack Green

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That’s my take. Hawks lost three champion movers if not full time mids after 2016. Trading in better than average (who still have a few years to finish their reputation) as few years younger but not raw balanced up the list which was still quite balanced for better than average players at each end.
I now see a list which is quite well balanced age and position wise but lacking enough game changers like you say. If things go well from here the recent draftees can have the luxury of honing their craft in the reserves, or make the seniors if they warrant it. Setting up competition for spots too.
Why wouldn’t hawthorn expect to over achieve in finals? 1991 2001 and 2008 are probably some of the weakest finals sides ever from hawthorn but they hit 2 flags and a prelim. Also played but rarely won finals 1992 1993 1994 1996 2000

plenty of teams would take 2 flags 18 years apart in an 18 team comp, asterisks and all

Cyril not leaving, Mitchell and Sicily not missing a season each, one or two good free agents and who knows. We now know it wasn’t to be but wouldn’t it havebeen derelict not to try?

we could have done without the vickery, Patton and Scully issues there’s probably been as many others taking up list spots who were less high profile, indeed there were a few just before and after the threepeat.
:thumbsu: Derelict not to try. Absolutely. Why wouldn't you.
[ Well I'm not attempting to be an oracle but I see Scotland said most astute footy judges in 2016 said they wouldn't and they didn't. Don't consider myself an astute footy judge but I was in that camp]

Richmond who managed 5 top 30 picks in 2021 chose 5 teenagers. Very similar position to Hawks 5 years ago, but what a completely different strategy. I think , unlike the Hawks, [ and I'm not a huge wrap for the Tigers either just quietly- bit over them too;) ]it will prove the correct one. We will wait and see.
 

Pessimistic

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:thumbsu: Derelict not to try. Absolutely. Why wouldn't you.
[ Well I'm not attempting to be an oracle but I see Scotland said most astute footy judges in 2016 said they wouldn't and they didn't. Don't consider myself an astute footy judge but I was in that camp]

Richmond who managed 5 top 30 picks in 2021 chose 5 teenagers. Very similar position to Hawks 5 years ago, but what a completely different strategy. I think , unlike the Hawks, [ and I'm not a huge wrap for the Tigers either just quietly- bit over them too;) ]it will prove the correct one. We will wait and see.

i think I did the numbers a while ago and while successful teams have around seven best 22 players traded in, the hawks were the highest with up to ten or eleven, and the tigers were the lowest with about five or six, but it’s a clear strategy to see.

also I noted you ranked 30yo Gunston with reowoldt 33 and Buddy 34 as threats to be managed. Maybe there’s life in the old gunner yet
 

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Jack Green

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i think I did the numbers a while ago and while successful teams have around seven best 22 players traded in, the hawks were the highest with up to ten or eleven, and the tigers were the lowest with about five or six, but it’s a clear strategy to see.

also I noted you ranked 30yo Gunston with reowoldt 33 and Buddy 34 as threats to be managed. Maybe there’s life in the old gunner yet
The other 2 could well finish up great careers at seasons end. Gunston younger but back surgery - unsure. :think: Did post a while back about a American gridiron star coming back at 30 after back surgery and still being a gun.
Will be interesting if he plays with your young tall timber who gets the best defender
 

HairyO

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:thumbsu: Derelict not to try. Absolutely. Why wouldn't you.
[ Well I'm not attempting to be an oracle but I see Scotland said most astute footy judges in 2016 said they wouldn't and they didn't. Don't consider myself an astute footy judge but I was in that camp]

Richmond who managed 5 top 30 picks in 2021 chose 5 teenagers. Very similar position to Hawks 5 years ago, but what a completely different strategy. I think , unlike the Hawks, [ and I'm not a huge wrap for the Tigers either just quietly- bit over them too;) ]it will prove the correct one. We will wait and see.

Hawks had 3 peated and wanted 4 in a row. Tigers were going for a 3 peat and didnt get there.

Similar but not the same.
 

Jack Green

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Hawks had 3 peated and wanted 4 in a row. Tigers were going for a 3 peat and didnt get there.

Similar but not the same.
Not completely the same . But end of dynasty under legendary coaches is similar.
And what appears completely different strategies adopted by the 2 clubs at that stage of time.
 

Scotland

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Hawks had 3 peated and wanted 4 in a row. Tigers were going for a 3 peat and didnt get there.

Similar but not the same.

This is a bit of a myth.

None of the moves from 2016 onward had any impact on a potential 4 peat. That dream died with the Semi Final loss to the Bulldogs. Or in 2012 if you want to look at it that way.

2015 off season moves were Suckling left as a free agent, Anderson traded for North for the pick used on Burton (and some other swaps), Lake and Hale retired, a couple of no names delisted. Not really a Last Dance type deal and no moves of consequence for the short term.

The 2016 moves (Mitchell, O'Meara, Vickery, Henderson) coincided with Brad Hill wanting to return to WA and Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell being given away for peanuts.

The timeline of the whole thing was... interesting.
 

Pessimistic

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The other 2 could well finish up great careers at seasons end. Gunston younger but back surgery - unsure. :think: Did post a while back about a American gridiron star coming back at 30 after back surgery and still being a gun.
Will be interesting if he plays with your young tall timber who gets the best defender

funny how Buddy will be the one remembered long term, but the two jacks were almost perfect forwards for this era, instrumental at the pointy end of the season
 

Jack Green

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This is a bit of a myth.

None of the moves from 2016 onward had any impact on a potential 4 peat. That dream died with the Semi Final loss to the Bulldogs. Or in 2012 if you want to look at it that way.

2015 off season moves were Suckling left as a free agent, Anderson traded for North for the pick used on Burton (and some other swaps), Lake and Hale retired, a couple of no names delisted. Not really a Last Dance type deal and no moves of consequence for the short term.

The 2016 moves (Mitchell, O'Meara, Vickery, Henderson) coincided with Brad Hill wanting to return to WA and Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell being given away for peanuts.

The timeline of the whole thing was... interesting.
I agree . The chance to snaffle one more teased them though .
2017 they came storming home to miss finals. 2018 straight sets top 4 . 2019 stormed home again to narrowly miss finals. Kennett was still talking premierships in early 2020 [ and so were some of the supporters] . And in June/July of 2020 the Hawks were playing sides 27 +years regularly.
Clarko was very reluctant to rebuild as rebuilds take many years . His press conferences post game as losses mounted reflected this attitude.

I think most Hawk supporters would say now it was worth a try and why wouldn't you have a go, though the chances weren't good. And obviously would concede it was a failed strategy. Looking at this years trade period, you could suggest Richmond have learnt from Hawthorn's mistakes .
 

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I don’t see it as a failure more a soft landing (after the oldest premiership team ever). The retirements in the next three seasons wont be that harsh, so the capital will build fairly quickly. There’s good spread of ages and positions.
the drafting reflected this as it was very much best available and let’s we how they develop. Ruck was bolstered as Ceglar left and bigboy will retire soon. Otherwise best available. Salary cap management very healthy.

even looking at history the best even a b2b rebuild team has ever done is hawks two years later in 1991. (Since melbourne 1964) That one really did produce some terrible hubris to disasterous consequences.
 
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Jack Green

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I don’t see it as a failure more a soft landing (after the oldest premiership team ever). The retirements in the next three seasons wont be that harsh, so the capital will build fairly quickly. There’s good spread of ages and positions.
the drafting reflected this as it was very much best available and let’s we how they develop. Ruck was bolstered as Ceglar left and bigboy will retire soon. Otherwise best available. Salary cap management very healthy.

even looking at history the best even a b2b rebuild team has ever done is hawks two years later in 1991. (Since melbourne 1964) That one really did produce some terrible hubris to disasterous consequences.
Your history is spot on. :thumbsu: Where we disagree is the soft landing.
 

HairyO

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This is a bit of a myth.

None of the moves from 2016 onward had any impact on a potential 4 peat. That dream died with the Semi Final loss to the Bulldogs. Or in 2012 if you want to look at it that way.

2015 off season moves were Suckling left as a free agent, Anderson traded for North for the pick used on Burton (and some other swaps), Lake and Hale retired, a couple of no names delisted. Not really a Last Dance type deal and no moves of consequence for the short term.

The 2016 moves (Mitchell, O'Meara, Vickery, Henderson) coincided with Brad Hill wanting to return to WA and Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell being given away for peanuts.

The timeline of the whole thing was... interesting.

We had a President who was telling everyone he wanted 2 more premierships in the next 5 years.

You dont do that by trading out players in their prime and building up draft picks. Or by turning down free agents and trades for players in their prime.
 

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We had a President who was telling everyone he wanted 2 more premierships in the next 5 years.

You dont do that by trading out players in their prime and building up draft picks. Or by turning down free agents and trades for players in their prime.

Do you do it by giving away two of your last three B&F winners for nothing? Or retiring Norm Smith medal winners that want to play on?

Jeff Kennett is a nuffy. If you based your list management from 2016 onward based on his read of the list then I'm not surprised it didn't out. But as much as that would stroke his ego I doubt you did.
 

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HairyO

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Do you do it by giving away two of your last three B&F winners for nothing? Or retiring Norm Smith medal winners that want to play on?

Jeff Kennett is a nuffy. If you based your list management from 2016 onward based on his read of the list then I'm not surprised it didn't out. But as much as that would stroke his ego I doubt you did.

We had a lot of young players who werent getting games. Players like Sicily who sat by and watched the team successes. Older players tend to want to play forever.

Im pretty sure Hodge chose to retire. Whether he then decided to go to Brisbane, or it was always his plan I dont know. Birchall was similar. Lake was shot and he admitted it. After his initial annoyance he admitted that he would not have been able to do a full pre-season.

Cyril chose to retire. In part because of every year suffering painful injuries, but having an a-hole President didnt help either. Gibbo chose to retire. Mitchell and Lewis wanted guarantees of contracts beyond their current and Clarko had always had a rule not to do this. Burgoyne ended up on 7 or 8 years worth of 1 year contracts.

Melbourne offered Lewis a longer contract, Mitchell was offered a playing contract followed by the promise of an assistant coach contract which was an offer too hard to refuse. Mitchell had a good but not great year, then led the WCE midfield to a flag so that worked well for him, Lewis struggled in his final year at Melbourne and you assume would have struggled at Hawthorn too - while keeping younger players out of the team.

Melbourne needed older heads at that time as they had so many young players.
 

Pessimistic

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Do you do it by giving away two of your last three B&F winners for nothing? Or retiring Norm Smith medal winners that want to play on?

Jeff Kennett is a nuffy. If you based your list management from 2016 onward based on his read of the list then I'm not surprised it didn't out. But as much as that would stroke his ego I doubt you did.
Counting the days mate
 

Jack Green

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We had a President who was telling everyone he wanted 2 more premierships in the next 5 years.

You dont do that by trading out players in their prime and building up draft picks. Or by turning down free agents and trades for players in their prime.
That's true. Although his aims were not based in any type of reality [but recent history] just about everybody at Hawthorn on board loved him as a no-nonsense /take no crap from the AFL, President. As his forecasts and Hawthorn's fortunes waned ,so did his popularity as President.
Having said that I think you'll be extremely glad to see the back of him. But I didn't see the amount of questioning of him when the team was successful.
 

Jack Green

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Hawks making all the right choices.

Bit the bullet and realised they needed to invest in youth
I wish my club would have the courage to do that
It wont be long before they do. It's how the system works. In the end , no matter who you are, you have no choice.
 

Gavin Excell

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That's true. Although his aims were not based in any type of reality [but recent history] just about everybody at Hawthorn on board loved him as a no-nonsense /take no crap from the AFL, President. As his forecasts and Hawthorn's fortunes waned ,so did his popularity as President.
Having said that I think you'll be extremely glad to see the back of him. But I didn't see the amount of questioning of him when the team was successful.
The problem with Kennett is he has a limited grasp on football
Kudos to whoever at hawthorn has explained to him that things are cyclical and you have to accept that
 

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It's interesting as a Fremantle supporter without premiership success for a quarter of a century or a Saints supporter for nearly half a century, how we have a very cautious optimism at best, for our clubs.

The last 2 years both Freo and the Saints have comfortably beaten the Hawks [ I think] and last year gave them a real hiding and been developing and building their lists over the last few years .[ Saints tackled it a bit differently mind you] Like Longmire as a coach and Ratten has a 50% win /loss at both Blues and Saints over 9 years. [ good not great coach IMO]
We hope or think we could sneak finals , and also with 18 sides in the comp understand there is a chance we wont play off in a preliminary the next 3-4 years.

Hawthorn have a new coach , huge list turnover , coming off consecutive bottom 6 finishes , and a quite a significant % of their fans have them ahead of both Freo and the Saints this year and playing finals :think:
Well if North fans have a similar view like the hawks, north fans think that north Melbourne will be undefeated and Top 4 in 2022
 

Gavin Excell

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Think if they traded off wingard for a draft pick would have been the perfect trade period

It's likely though that Wingard isn't valued highly across the league
 

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