Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[RUNVS]

Again.... I curious what the hawks will do with pick 2/3 and 22 and 23. I wont be suprised is pick 3 is traded for 2 top 10 picks so Hawks trade pick3 for picks 9 and 10.

It is a good question actually. For a team in the early stages of a rebuild what is more important, one A plus player or an A minus player combined with a B plus player.

 

[Freomaniac]

Clarko knows he botched the Hawthorn list badly, and no doubt he wants to hang around one more year to have one last shot at leaving Hawthorn on a good note, rather than doing a Kevin Sheedy, who stayed too long and wouldn't let go.

I know Hawthorn fans still like to carry on about their promising youth, but the reality, they have nowhere near enough, and so many of their key players are still old farts.

Freo have been at it for 6 years now. They've drafted loads of quality youth, and made some pretty good trades along the way. But look at them, they're still nowhere near contending, and don't even look like a top 8 side. Hawthorn is literally MILES behind Fremantle in their list rebuild.

As I have stated on this thead.... Freos rebuild has been interesting. Especially getting the youth from the 2016-19 drafts.

Backline has depth. Theres a lot of blokes that are 190cm or taller: Alex Pearce, Joel Hamling, Griffin Logue, Brennan Cox, Taylin Duman and Tobe Watson.

Theres some young midfield talent in Brayshaw, Cerra and Serong.

The only problem is the the same problem freo had in 2012-15: the forward line. Rory Lobb is a Good FF ruck. Taberner is a solid 30-40 goal a season KPF. I love both Lobb and tabs but unfortunately both blokes are 28 years old, not 23 or 24 years old.

The only thing flawed in freos 2016-19 drafting was freo didnt draft a decent KPF. They traded tall forwards in. They traded McCarthy and Kersten in the 2016 trade period. They traded Hogan and Lobb in the 2018 trade period. The only bad trade freo has done in the last 6-8 years was the Hogan trade. That pick 6 we traded for hogan could of been used to get one of the king tiwns, not that the King twin would stay in WA for the whole of his career.

Port got Mitch Geordgiades with pick 18 in that 2019 draft. Freo could of got him with 7, or 8 or 9. Pick 7 netted us caleb serong, pick 8 handed us Hayden young and pick 9 technically didnt count as that was Liam Henry who we traded points and picks as he is a Next generation academy pick.

Saying that Josh Traecy in the 2020 Rookie list as shown signs to be a decent tall forward.

 

[Freomaniac]

It is a good question actually. For a team in the early stages of a rebuild what is more important, one A plus player or an A minus player combined with a B plus player.

Its an intersting scenario.....

Still remember the days when freo finished 14th in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Freo had no 2nd rounder in both years which was pick 23. I always suggested to trade our 1st and 3rd which was pick 5 and 41 for a teams mid 1st mid 2nd and mid 3rd. so picks 10, 28 and 46 or 11, 29 and 47 or 12, 30 and 48

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Again.... I curious what the hawks will do with pick 2/3 and 22 and 23. I wont be suprised is pick 3 is traded for 2 top 10 picks so Hawks trade pick3 for picks 9 and 10.

Doubt we do.

 

[WillHayward]

Hawks should aim for 5 top 20 picks in the next two drafts.

 

[Scotland]

It is a good question actually. For a team in the early stages of a rebuild what is more important, one A plus player or an A minus player combined with a B plus player.

Those classifications are totally arbitrary.

I'm not trading Dustin Martin (pick 3, 2009) for any 2 players in that year's top 10. But that's an extreme example. Would you trade Trent Cotchin for Ben McEvoy and Lachie Henderson? Cotchin is the better player, but you could have a ruckman and key defender for a decade.

It has to be framed by what happens at the time. Port traded 11, 23 and 30 to get pick 6, then 6 and 35 to get pick 5 in 2018. Most years there aren't Lukosious, Rankine and Rozee all tipped to go top 5 out of SA and they wouldn't do those trades.

Some drafts have a consensus #1 or top 2/3/5 or whatever, some fall away after a certain point, some are even. I know zero about the 2021 draft pool but if there's a great top 3 or top 5 that everyone wants then I wouldn't be trading out of that. If it's a bit more even/unknown then you are probably better off with say 8 and 9 instead of 3.

 

[threesixpio]

Again.... I curious what the hawks will do with pick 2/3 and 22 and 23. I wont be suprised is pick 3 is traded for 2 top 10 picks so Hawks trade pick3 for picks 9 and 10.

I suspect a bit more of the farm will be sold

 

[threesixpio]

Hawks should aim for
5 top 20 picks in the next two drafts.

Or push for an academy of the best players and nab them all - that’d be awesome

 

[RUNVS]

Or push for an academy of the best players and nab them all - that’d be awesome

You guys did that in the 80's.

 

[WWSD]

Hawks should aim for
5 top 20 picks in the next two drafts.

If Hawthorn finish last this year that would give Hawthorn picks 1, 20, plus pick 21 which Collingwood traded. lol

Then another bottom four finish next year. That would make it 5 picks inside the top 25 in just two years.

 

[Bradkli]

If Hawthorn finish last this year that would give Hawthorn picks 1, 20, plus pick 21 which Collingwood traded. lol

Then another bottom four finish next year. That would make it 5 picks inside the top 25 in just two years.

Just have to hope we don’t end up with Xavier Ellis, Mitch thorp, beau dowler, beau muston and dayle gartlett types…

 

[Stottzy]

Biggest concern for me will be that development of kids is gonna be tough if there is gonna be no VFL played. Lost a whole year last year and basically half a season this year. In saying that, if we can just recruit and reorganise our midfield, we could bounce back in a few years.

 

[QuietB]

That’s assuming North don’t have any large losses though.

9% is a lot this late in the year.

It is a 163 point difference at the moment - 64 points for difference and 99 points against difference both favouring the Hawks.

Hawks would have to cop some poundings to finish last.

Speaking of poundings, North have the Cats next week.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Not necessarily. Say Hawthorn lose to the Lions by 50 points, then Bulldogs by 50 points and then another big loss against Richmond, that would be enough for Hawthorn to finish below North Melbourne. Even if North doesn’t win another game.

Norf will get smashed too and by more. We are likely to do well in one game and probs win one too.

 

[WillHayward]

Good point....

I am realistic in Freos rebuild compared to other clubs. It has had its good times, but it has its flaws as well. Backline is ok. Got some good young talented mids, provided if they stay, and yes I am talking about Adam Cerra.

Forward line is an issue. Lobb is an ok FF/RUCK Taberner is a solid 30-40 goal a season forward. Only Problem is Tabs is 28 not 23 or 24 years old.

The only think that would of topped off that rebuild was getting a solid KPF or a solid 2nd tall. Hogan was a risk in 2018 but that didnt work out. Port used pick 18 or 19 on Mitch Georgiades who is a solid 192 cm tall forward. Freo had picks 7, 8 and 9. pick 9 didnt count as that was used to get liam Henry a next generation academy pick. Pick 7 was caleb serong who is a gun. Pick 8 is hayden young.... maybe use that pick on mitch.

Saying that, hawks have 3 picks in the top 25. Dead certain at least 1 or 2 will be used on mids.

Look at 2019.
You'd happily trade Stephens for Pickett and Georgiadis.

 

[Freomaniac]

Look at 2019.
You'd happily trade Stephens for Pickett and Georgiadis.

yeah i would

 

[Freomaniac]

Just have to hope we don’t end up with Xavier Ellis, Mitch thorp, beau dowler, beau muston and dayle gartlett types…

Or Zac Dawson lol

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

We haven't had Sicily or Gunston all year who are clearly our best players. Will Day

12

Will Day

Age

22

Ht

191cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.5

2star

D

17.5

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

D

17.5

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.5

3star

has played 6 games and a few others are out the rest of the year as well. When you have wafer thin depth injuries will kill a side. If we had a Melbourne like run with injury this year we would be at least 2-3 wins more. It's at least allowed us to expose more kids to the level and we have found a couple who could be long term options such as Bramble and Ned Reeves. DGB had a stinker yesterday but should be very good with more development in the gym. We're also forgetting what sort of style we will run with next year and beyond. Mitchell will have ideas in mind and we will find out the new Hawthorn brand that will rubber stamp his coaching.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

To put things in perspective when I talk about injuries before yesterday's game we had 9 players on the list. All 9 are best 22. Slot them in we're not bottom 2. Doesn't change the fact were no good but no one has really seen what our current best team looks like ATM. What there seeing is the depth of the team which is not great.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Clarko has not once mentioned we have been unlucky with who we have out either unlike his mate at Punt road.

 

[RUNVS]

Not necessarily. Say Hawthorn lose to the Lions by 50 points, then Bulldogs by 50 points and then another big loss against Richmond, that would be enough for Hawthorn to finish below North Melbourne. Even if North doesn’t win another game.

Do you really want that though? That is how teams develop a losing culture. It was how Carlton and Melbourne thought for years "if we only lose by a little more we will have a better draft pick" sort of mentality.

 

[Freomaniac]

Do you really want that though? That is how teams develop a losing culture. It was how Carlton and Melbourne thought for years "if we only lose by a little more we will have a better draft pick" sort of mentality.

Its a different situation....

Carlton in 2005-7 won 3 wooden spoons in a row. They mainly focused on the number 1 picks.....

Very rarely a team would trade a pick 1 or pick 2.

Its not crazy trading pick 5. You could trade pick 5 for a couple of mid 1st rounders like 13 and 14.

Or as I said, trade pick 5 and 41 for picks 10, 28 and 46.

Sometimes its better the have 3 2nd rounders between 24-35 then have pick 3.

 

[WWSD]

Do you really want that though? That is how teams develop a losing culture. It was how Carlton and Melbourne thought for years "if we only lose by a little more we will have a better draft pick" sort of mentality.

The difference being those teams butchered their picks, which then set them back. Hawthorn’s track record with first round picks is sublime. The chance to get a marquee player like Horne doesn’t come around often.

 

[H00t]

Its a different situation....

Carlton in 2005-7 won 3 wooden spoons in a row. They mainly focused on the number 1 picks.....

Very rarely a team would trade a pick 1 or pick 2.

Its not crazy trading pick 5. You could trade pick 5 for a couple of mid 1st rounders like 13 and 14.

Or as I said, trade pick 5 and 41 for picks 10, 28 and 46.

Sometimes its better the have 3 2nd rounders between 24-35 then have pick 3.

Trading back like that is crazy. Only in hindsight, if a team made an absolute meal of that really top pick. Otherwise take the high draft pick, that’s where the elite talent is.

If you can stuff up pick 3, you won’t have much more luck with picks in the 20’s.

 

[RUNVS]

The difference being those teams butchered their picks, which then set them back. Hawthorn’s track record with first round picks is sublime. The chance to get a marquee player like Horne doesn’t come around often.

Is it though? I mean lets look at the last 10 years

2011 - Nothing
2012 - Nothing
2013 - Nothing
2014 - Nothing
2015 - Burton (19), Lovell (22)
2016 - Nothing
2017 - Nothing
2018 - Nothing
2019 - Day (13)
2020 - Grainger-Barras (6)

You have only selected 4 first-rounders in the last 10 years, and two of them are not on your list anymore.