Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Blackhawk42]

Hawthorn probably still need two more solid national draft and trade periods before their rebuild is almost done.


Would like to see them recruit a couple more pacey, outside midfielders, another ruckman and replacements from Gunston and Bruest.

Hopefully one of Seamus Mitchell, Tyler Brockman or Sam Butler (most likely IMO) can partner Dylan Moore to fill that eventual Breust void.

Gunston is a super unique player who won't ever be entirely replaceable. Jai Serong is the same size and starting his VFL career in the same role but he has plenty of physical development to do yet before we know how good he can be.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I don't think either are right. You went for a rebuild through a heap of talented guys in their mid 20s who were going cheap due to various issues. Didn't work, but we'll done trying something different.

We traded out our the first rounder for 3 years straight, while Clarkson was trying to go again.

 

[sr36]

We traded out our the first rounder for 3 years straight, while Clarkson was trying to go again.

Yes, but you also lost your star core and tried rebuilding it by buying in a swag of guys of a similar age who were hugely rated when young, but had become much cheaper, generally due to injury. To me it was an attempt to rebuild in a different way.

 

[Spook]

I think Hawthorn waited about 2 years too long before going to the draft. I don't think many people at Hawthorn would disagree with that, but it's easier to say in hindsight.

I agree

 

[KermitJagger]

We're certainly not ignoring the elite end of the draft any longer, but I would question whether trading out our picks for players was genuinely ignoring the elite end. It's not as though we parted with top 5 picks.

Easier to say it was wrong with hindsight, but there weren't exactly many kids taken using the picks with which we parted that are setting the world on fire.

Either way, didn't work and we've changed tactics. I'm interested to see whether some of the promising youngsters at the club can become reliable players while those 28-30 year olds are still playing good footy. Times have changed and players are still at their peak into their 30s, not impossible.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not mentioned much is there are no bargains to be traded in. No one is moving on a McEvoy because ‘he won’t be in our next premiership,

That less and less teams are following the above. You can’t clean up in the sharemarkets unless fools are selling low

 

[Pessimistic]

We're certainly not ignoring the elite end of the draft any longer, but I would question whether trading out our picks for players was genuinely ignoring the elite end. It's not as though we parted with top 5 picks.

Easier to say it was wrong with hindsight, but there weren't exactly many kids taken using the picks with which we parted that are setting the world on fire.

Either way, didn't work and we've changed tactics. I'm interested to see whether some of the promising youngsters at the club can become reliable players while those 28-30 year olds are still playing good footy. Times have changed and players are still at their peak into their 30s, not impossible.

Also much of what people are calling ‘conventional wisdom’ in rebuilds also cites examples such as hawthorn 2001-15 where they also did that with abundant riches in 2001

Carlton went the early draft picks 2005 2006 2007 three years running and got nowhere near the riches from a couple of years earlier

 

[DrEvil_]

Also much of what people are calling ‘conventional wisdom’ in rebuilds also cites examples such as hawthorn 2001-15 where they also did that with abundant riches in 2001

Carlton went the early draft picks 2005 2006 2007 three years running and got nowhere near the riches from a couple of years earlier

 

[Blue1980]

excellent take. lots of similarities for sure. the cliff is yet to come.

None of this means they shouldn’t be happy or attempting to win now.

Of course the older guys help, but the younger ones will still be around, will just need some extras.

I do agree though, Gunston and Sicily back has been massive for them, they’re an outside shot at the 8 this year.

Even if they drop back in the next year or two it doesn’t mean it’s a mistake winning games, they are still developing younger talent.

 

[Blue1980]

Sadly for you, in 5 years time the Hawks will be streets ahead of where the blues are now.

Green shoots everywhere at hawthorn - exciting times.

Who knows, you may be streets ahead of where we are right now, we might be streets ahead of where we are right now in 5 years.

 

[QuietB]

Who knows, you may be streets ahead of where we are right now, we might be streets ahead of where we are right now in 5 years.

There is no knowing. Carlton are in a really good place - the age profile of the list is awesome. It is just a questions of adding the right missing pieces and how good they are.

Hawks still have work to do but you can see it coming together. It might fall apart - plenty of others have in the past.

Only time will tell.

 

[matey]

As shown in the past a significant factor that improves a clubs playing list that no one has raised is being a destination club. Hawks have not been one for a few years post it’s 3 peat and ageing list. With a new coach playing a more exciting game style, quality young backline, youngsters like CJ, Newk, Day, Ward, Lewis, Scrimshaw, DGB, Moore, MacDonald etc ……… watch a few quality players that change clubs choosing the Hawks as their destination club in the near future. Coming along nicely.

 

[La Dispute]

I can’t see too many clubs willingly spending years down the bottom in an attempt to get access to earlier picks.

All clubs go through a year or two of mediocrity, but you’ve got to leverage that against that against protracted shitness and see the effect of constantly losing games. Wrecks your culture, and those guys you’ve spent years losing to get end up developing badly anyway.

I think Hawthorn could have easily lost Wingate or JOM last off season and still been in the same position, but they look good long term regardless how things pan out in the next couple of years.

 

[Freomaniac]

This is cunning strategy from Mitchell, playing dead in the preseason.

You are correct

 

[Red Bull]

Mitchell knew the score when he attempted the fire sale in trade week.
Unfortunately, for various reasons nothing came of it and 12 months on, probably nothing will.
The hawks are in the bottom 4 with ess north wc and as things stand, will only take their single mandatory first rounder to the draft like everyone else.
Is this enough draft firepower for Mitchell, it appears he thinks not, so, what to do …

 

[The 747]

They play an exciting brand of football. It doesn't work but it is good to watch.

 

[HairyO]

They play an exciting brand of football. It doesn't work but it is good to watch.

Worked against your lot. And against Brisbane. But neither are winning the flag this year.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I don't think Hawthorn are that far off contending again but it won't be as a result of ignoring the elite end of the draft. I think Mitchell is a fantastic coach too.

 

[hawkman]

Mitchell knew the score when he attempted the fire sale in trade week.
Unfortunately, for various reasons nothing came of it and 12 months on, probably nothing will.
The hawks are in the bottom 4 with ess north wc and as things stand, will only take their single mandatory first rounder to the draft like everyone else.
Is this enough draft firepower for Mitchell, it appears he thinks not, so, what to do …

It is going to take of years to get the midfield working. That is where nearly all the issues are. It goes from competing well to uncompetitive within 5 minutes

 

[Red Bull]

It is going to take of years to get the midfield working. That is where nearly all the issues are. It goes from competing well to uncompetitive within 5 minutes

Worpel down yesterday doesn’t help matters in the midfield short term.
Long term, how do the hawks gather the volume of high end draft picks needed to rebuild their list to contender status …

 

[Freomaniac]

4 points made and I agree with all.[ Although your 3rd point on talent and development IMO is what will make this rebuild a slow burn compared to your last] And from an outsiders point of view ,you would be far happier and optimistic about the direction your club is moving in now. I think the difference is the timeframe between other supporters like myself, and Hawk supporters .

Personally I have the Hawks bottom 6 in 2022 and in the bottom half of the ladder and so not playing finals for the next 3 years . And of course that's on top of missing finals the last 3 years under Clarkson. And I have detailed reasons and past precedents of why this will be the case. Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? Well. Daniel Howe is the only under 40 drafted player from 2011-2018 still on your list .

I suppose my forecasts [or other fans viewpoints like mine]are not what you wan t to hear , believe or hope to happen though are they ?
We probably just all need to sit back over the next 9 months[ at least] to see who is proven right or wrong.

Accurate prediction of Hawks being bottom 6.


Oh and it's your saints vs my Dockers. Good luck this weekend lol

 

[Freomaniac]

It is going to take of years to get the midfield working. That is where nearly all the issues are. It goes from competing well to uncompetitive within 5 minutes

Well your Hawthorn. Your supposed to fix your problems in 5 minutes LoL.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Worpel down yesterday doesn’t help matters in the midfield short term.
Long term, how do the hawks gather the volume of high end draft picks needed to rebuild their list to contender status …

Development is a massive key in this question.

Ward, Macdonald and Day are high end draft selections who could become a dynamic and highly talented midfield unit alongside the bull Jai Newcombe.

We absolutely need more high end midfield talent, but a couple of pieces could already be in place.
Sam Butler and Dylan Moore are two others who could become above average midfielders as well.

I'd be all for trading Mitchell or O'Meara plus one of Gunston and Wingard for whatever we can get. At this point playing JOM and Titch is getting us nowhere. We don't NEED a first round draft pick to replace them. We just need the entire dynamic to change.

 

[Freomaniac]

In rebuild stage your not having a 28 year old Wingard over a 21 year old Duursma and 24 year old Burton though are you?
What do you reckon Mitchell would rather?

Duursma and Burton.

Ryan Burton had a solid game vs Freo yesterday. Xavier Duursma pulled out last minute with an injury

 

[Pessimistic]

We have enough burtons.

Picks around duursma (chad has 57 games up) no guarantee they pick duursma