Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[kranky al]

No, it's not hard to understand that some get inside info. Had you mentioned that before ? I don't read every post, as you'd imagine. Why would you think I'd accept your post as being a cabal of inside information ? Your post itself ? Because it's you ? Amusing.

Clubs try and address their weaknesses during this period, especially the paranoid Hawks, who can't bare the idea of not challenging. To not add a decent key forward or key defender in this trade period has in my view been a dismal failure.

Must really suck being a hawthorn fan - rebuilding from 4th - knowing they fwarked up so badly

 

[Nugett]

Some good points made.

I understand the desire to get Wingard, just not the decision to lose Burton.

Even Wingard felt he was being pushed out the door, so I can only conclude Hawthorn blinked first. If you'd got Wingard and retained Burton I'm probably not posting in this thread. You'll say if you didn't trade Burton you wouldn't have landed Wingard. That may or may not be true. But gee, you've paid a lot for a soft player.

I do agree with you re: Burton. Losing him does hurt. He has potential to be a good solid player, potentially a great. I hope he goes well at Port. I also agree that we paid a lot for Wingard, with Port we generally seem to pay overs. I think with this particular trade, it will be judged on how Burton and Wingard go in their new surroundings. Which is unfair but such is life.

 

[Asapartyhat]

If they continue picking players good enough to be regular top 25 or so squad members with picks from about thirty five to about fifty five then they can trade out late first rounder picks early second rounder picks or players for experienced proven types they want to acquier at a rate higher than one for one. Being able to find late draft pick talent that wont be world beaters but are good enough to be not weak links but solid good reliable in a very good team is the trick and they have been doing it well so far.

 

[Eternal Schism]

Hawthorn supporters understanably will defend their club. The Hawks were possible the purest football team I have ever seen circa 2012-2015. Skill levels by foot that were unheard of, harlem globe trotter esque. However the break down of their team, the ages of players, what they are paying in picks are simply delaying the inevidable fall that will come to any side with that many years at the pinnacle. Scully could be good, but an outside flake like that isn't making up ground from being far from a serious contender, Wingard for Burton is barely an upgrade. They had a softer draw this year and a easy injury run. Can see them falling back and then burning in the coming years - I think of this unit quality wise to be on par with North 2014-2015 at best. Prelims and bust.

For you paranoid Hawks, I'm not saying we will do better. Hell if any team can muck up what we have it is the MFC. However I'm willing to bet my account that Hawthorn won't win a flag before dropping back to the bottom 8 of the ladder and getting their drafting done. Bookmark it. Look forward to the bump in 12 months, 24 months, ongong.

 

[hk89]

Is the gloss already falling ?

They wanted Lynch - Richmond

They wanted May - Melbourne

They wanted Shiel - Essendon

Are you seriously listing what is arguably nearly half of the elite talent that moved clubs this trade period and saying because Hawthorn didn't get those players we are no longer a viable destination club? Especially when we got two of the other half of the available elite talent.

We needed to replace Rioli, and we got the only elite player in the competition that moved clubs that was remotely like him (X-factor, capable of 40+ goals a year but still rotating through the midfield).

We also got a former #1 pick, and probably one of the top 3 wingers in the competition as well, albeit with a * next to him injury wise.

The only real 'gloss' miss from the three you have listed is Lynch because we could have gotten him for nothing but salary cap, but instead he went to the team favourites to go back to back at the time he made the choice. The other two were a matter of contracted players that required a reasonable amount of trade material to get done. It was going to be VERY hard to get Wingard plus any other player. I'm sure we tried, especially with Shiel, but the reality is between Port and GWS's demands we were only ever going to get one of the two of those over the line, irrespective of whether they both nominated us or not.

How would we have gotten May done with the material we had? Didn't you give up pick #6 for him? We were the third most stingy defence, so why prioritize May over Wingard? We'll need to replace Frawley soon, but it wasn't a priority this year, as unlike Cyril he's still on our list.

With contracted players, 'gloss' is only part of the equation, there is only a certain number you are going to be able to trade for even with infinite gloss and infinite cap space.

 

[Deleted member 170709]

Burton was soft and the way his hit on Higgins messed with him thereafter confirms it. Additionally we saw his ceiling albeit he could've gone up another notch but not enough to be a gun. Therefore to switch him with Wingard who is a match winner (no doubt whotsoever every club would want him) is a great move by the club and we move forward

 

[Trav 20]

Are you seriously listing what is arguably nearly half of the elite talent that moved clubs this trade period and saying because Hawthorn didn't get those players we are no longer a viable destination club?

No. But it's great you missed out.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yeah yeah, you've resorted to "probablys". Well done.

You've literally come in here and made out like trading in Wingard is a bad move, which is just plain dumb. A dual AA 25yr old, who just finished 6th in his clubs B&F, pushed out the door for a shot at Lukosis and Rankine....

So you're right, based on that I should've wrote "would've".

 

[Trav 20]

You've literally come in here and made out like trading in Wingard is a bad move, which is just plain dumb. A dual AA 25yr old, who just finished 6th in his clubs B&F, pushed out the door for a shot at Lukosis and Rankine....

So you're right, based on that I should've wrote "would've".

I've "literally" not said trading in Wingard is a bad move. I've "literally" said trading Burton for Wingard is eyebrow raising when he's a half-dedicated footballer, so it smacks of desperation after missing preferred targets.

Who wouldn't want Wingard in 2019 ? But not for the cost paid. For me it's outcome based. I don't mind paying overs if your list is improved. You needed key position players, but gave up your second best youngster for a flaky half-forward ? Does that smack of winning ?

You're happy, so why care what I think ?

But I do love how you guys are suddenly infatuated with his past credentials and cite them accordingly. I'm sure you'd accept those same accolades from Port fans if you were debating his worth six months ago.

You blokes are Clarko's lapdogs. Pathetic really.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I've "literally" not said trading in Wingard is a bad move. I've "literally" said trading Burton for Wingard is eyebrow raising when he's a half-dedicated footballer, so it smacks of desperation after missing preferred targets.

Who wouldn't want Wingard in 2019 ? But not for the cost paid. For me it's outcome based. I don't mind paying overs if your list is improved. You needed key position players. You're happy, so why care what I think ?

But I do love how you guys are suddenly infatuated with his past credentials. I'm sure you'd accept those same accolades from Port fans if you were debating his worth six months ago.

You blokes are Clarko's lapdogs. Pathetic really.

Hawthorn gave up a C grade player with potential for an A grade player with runs on the board.

You can say he's "half dedicated" as much as you like, but pretending like targeting Wingard was just some desperate late play is utter fantasy.

 

[Trav 20]

Hawthorn gave up a C grade player with potential for an A grade player with runs on the board.

You can say he's "half dedicated" as much as you like, but pretending like targeting Wingard was just some desperate late play is utter fantasy.

Your player classifications are self-serving and disingenuous.

From a Melbourne perspective Weideman is C grade (or worse to date), but do you think we'd give up Weideman for Wingard ? Not on your miserable life.

Btw, Wingard is B+ (last two years). He's been A and may well be next year, but let's live in the now.

 

[beta_condition]

Your player classifications are self-serving and disingenuous.

From a Melbourne perspective Weideman is C grade (or worse to date), but do you think we'd give up Weideman for Wingard ? Not on your miserable life.

Btw, Wingard is B+ (last two years). He's been A and may well be next year, but let's live in the now.

Yes yes you would, you traded Hogan for May and May aren't no Wingard. Don't kid your self kid.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Hawthorn posters still think that it was Hawthorn who first said no to Shiel and no the other way around. Hilarious!

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Is the gloss already falling ?

They wanted Lynch - Richmond

They wanted May - Melbourne

They wanted Shiel - Essendon

But they gave up their second best young player for half-dedicated Chad. Well done.

Yet the media narrative is -"Hawthorn always gets it's man" !!

 

[H2F]

This is possibly the most polarised thread I’ve ever read in that there is the usual morons, but some seriously great posts from opposition supporters.

But even in saying all that I’m blown away here. These are the actual facts.

We won a three peat against theee different and powerful gameplays. In two of these wins we were given little chance against Freo, and absolutely none against Sydney.

After that amazing achievement (and let’s not forget beating Geelong who were touted as the best team of all time in 2008) this is what happened.

We lost:
Hodge
Mitchell
Lewis
Lake
Gibson
Rioli
Hill
Guerra

Not to mention
Buddy
Roughy is cooked
Frawley likewise
Birchall injured for two years

Just think about that?

Then we’re told we are bottom 4 and screwed having lost all that and having no real picks.

We bring in JOM, Impey and TOM, find Sicily, Hardwick, Morrison, Worpell and Howe ...

Then again with no picks get Scully, Scrimshaw and Wingard. Mind you we just finished top 4 with Sicily and Howe out until getting back in under done.

This is ridiculous ...

Clarko is unbelievable. We just got better after finishing top 4, when being told we were a joke for what we did getting TOM and JOM.

We add the above and once again told bottom 4.

Read who we lost again after our amazing three peat and think about it properly.

A metaphor that comes to mind is trying to land the most beautiful woman in the room with 20 bucks and wearing a track suit vs a million dollars in a suit yet she is sitting at Clarko’s table. Also after Clarko just nailed the 4 hottest women before that. Maybe a poor metaphor but I don’t know how else to say how ridiculous this all is.

He’s a freak ... Can he win another flag or more in his new commitment? Who knows, but so far only a moron wouldn’t say yes. But a smart person (and credit to the amount of those in this thread) would say not only will he, once again we will be mind blown as to how.

This argument about blowing picks. FFS, if we used our picks (which we have had FA off) we’d be wooden spooners and yet somehow our genius is finding a way to win us another flag or at least give it all he knows and has.

Bag him and that’s fine. But do it you are indisputably a freaking moron. We all need them in the world. Someone has to clean toilets or be pretend train cops.

As I said. One of the more fascinating threads I’ve read on so many levels.

 

[HairyO]

This is possibly the most polarised thread I’ve ever read in that there is the usual morons, but some seriously great posts from opposition supporters.

But even in saying all that I’m blown away here. These are the actual facts.

We won a three peat against theee different and powerful gameplays. In two of these wins we were given little chance against Freo, and absolutely none against Sydney.

After that amazing achievement (and let’s not forget beating Geelong who were touted as the best team of all time in 2008) this is what happened.

We lost:
Hodge
Mitchell
Lewis
Lake
Gibson
Rioli
Hill
Guerra

Not to mention
Buddy
Roughy is cooked
Frawley likewise
Birchall injured for two years

Just think about that?

Then we’re told we are bottom 4 and screwed having lost all that and having no real picks.

We bring in JOM, Impey and TOM, find Sicily, Hardwick, Morrison, Worpell and Howe ...

Then again with no picks get Scully, Scrimshaw and Wingard. Mind you we just finished top 4 with Sicily and Howe out until getting back in under done.

This is ridiculous ...

Clarko is unbelievable. We just got better after finishing top 4, when being told we were a joke for what we did getting TOM and JOM.

We add the above and once again told bottom 4.

Read who we lost again after our amazing three peat and think about it properly.

A metaphor that comes to mind is trying to land the most beautiful woman in the room with 20 bucks and wearing a track suit vs a million dollars in a suit yet she is sitting at Clarko’s table. Also after Clarko just nailed the 4 hottest women before that. Maybe a poor metaphor but I don’t know how else to say how ridiculous this all is.

He’s a freak ... Can he win another flag or more in his new commitment? Who knows, but so far only a moron wouldn’t say yes. But a smart person (and credit to the amount of those in this thread) would say not only will he, once again we will be mind blown as to how.

This argument about blowing picks. FFS, if we used our picks (which we have had FA off) we’d be wooden spooners and yet somehow our genius is finding a way to win us another flag or at least give it all he knows and has.

Bag him and that’s fine. But do it you are indisputably a freaking moron. We all need them in the world. Someone has to clean toilets or be pretend train cops.

As I said. One of the more fascinating threads I’ve read on so many levels.

I think you can sum up this thread as:
Half the posters make interesting comments
Half the posters have crossed fingers hoping we finally start failing

 

[Gavin Excell]

The AFL is nothing if not follow-the-leader.

If the Hawks pull off a flag doing this, I reckon the value of the draft will plummet.

I think this is where its heading - the focus on the ready made player v the draft youngster

If this continues not sure what exactly the AFL could do to change rules to counter and indeed, if it wanted to

 

[Deleted member 170709]

That is a terrible way of phrasing it though as no one would claim Scrimshaw would be worth pick 7 anymore, and no one would claim Scully is worth pick 1 anymore.

It is like saying "I just bought a $100,000 car for $5000"

"But it is a 1995 BMW"

"Yes, but 23 years ago it was worth $100,000"

What it was worth 23 years ago is no longer relevant.

Except one car is only 2 years old (7) and one is 5 years old (6), not 23. One car is a Rolls Royce former pick 1 that hasn't lost value - bit like Buddy a choice which has crippled your club.

Funny you see the glass half empty, I sse it half full - buying $100k cars for only $5k is shrewd investing in my view.

If Scrimshaw fulfils his potential of a pick 7, and all we gave was a 4th rounder, again this can only be viwed as a shrewd trade. We have the runs on the board e.g. getting a Brownlow Medalist for pick 14 Sit back and enjoy the ride of watching the maestro's work come to fruition again

 

[Roddy]

Hawthorn supporters understanably will defend their club. The Hawks were possible the purest football team I have ever seen circa 2012-2015. Skill levels by foot that were unheard of, harlem globe trotter esque. However the break down of their team, the ages of players, what they are paying in picks are simply delaying the inevidable fall that will come to any side with that many years at the pinnacle. Scully could be good, but an outside flake like that isn't making up ground from being far from a serious contender, Wingard for Burton is barely an upgrade. They had a softer draw this year and a easy injury run. Can see them falling back and then burning in the coming years - I think of this unit quality wise to be on par with North 2014-2015 at best. Prelims and bust.

For you paranoid Hawks, I'm not saying we will do better. Hell if any team can muck up what we have it is the MFC. However I'm willing to bet my account that Hawthorn won't win a flag before dropping back to the bottom 8 of the ladder and getting their drafting done. Bookmark it. Look forward to the bump in 12 months, 24 months, ongong.

I distinctly remember seeing multiple, virtually identical posts to this back in '09, '10......

 

[kriles76]

I predict this thread will be bumped for the next 5 years when at times applicable to an event in that period.

And expect Kevin "Shifter" Sheehan to come out swinging because Hawthorn is devaluing his reason for a job i.e. the AFL Draft.

 

[hk89]

Hawthorn posters still think that it was Hawthorn who first said no to Shiel and no the other way around. Hilarious!

Essendon posters still think the delay in his nomination after his own future father in law said he'd nominate several days earlier wasn't because Hawthorn were trying to negotiate a trade behind closed doors and eventually pulled out when it became clear GWS would not be satisfied with what we'd have left after grabbing the superior Wingard. Hilarious. If it makes you feel better, once we were out and Carlton refused to offer up pick 1, he chose you over Saints.

 

[Silent Alarm]

I do agree with you re: Burton. Losing him does hurt. He has potential to be a good solid player, potentially a great. I hope he goes well at Port. I also agree that we paid a lot for Wingard, with Port we generally seem to pay overs. I think with this particular trade, it will be judged on how Burton and Wingard go in their new surroundings. Which is unfair but such is life.

How is it unfair to judge a trade on how your trade goes... what else do you judge on it? Player you get sucks, it's not good. Player you lose becomes really good? Even worse.

 

[WWSD]

Hawthorn posters still think that it was Hawthorn who first said no to Shiel and no the other way around. Hilarious!

Except Wingard is a better player and a much better fit for Hawthorn then some 5th string midfielder.

 

[SSSSSS]

Except Wingard is a better player and a much better fit for Hawthorn then some 5th string midfielder.

Our last 5th string midfielder went alright.

Wingard is the juicier of the two though.

 

[its free real estate]

So many of their key older players looked absolutely cooked this finals series. Nearly half the best 22 that played this year will be 28 and older. Their trades are good, but it doesn't change the calculus - they are an old side, AFL seasons are long, and premierships are as much about having your best team fit and available in September as they are having the most talented side.