Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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Consider this:
  • Both Richmond and WB were thought to need a total rebuild 1 & 2 years prior to their recent premierships.
  • Both West Coast and Collingwood were widely tipped to finish outside the 8 last year, and some tipped them to finish in the bottom 6 before the season had commenced.
  • Nathan Buckley was almost sacked the year before.

The media get it wrong all the time (perhaps most of the time), and the consensus view on bigfooty typically reflect those held in the media.
The decline of Hawthorn has been eagerly anticipated & greatly exaggerated.
 

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Vindicater

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You can just tell that within 24 hours we will get a story from one of the gutter trash four (Barrett, McClure, Stevo or Robbo) about how Wingard cracked the shits about Roughead yelling at him and how Clarkson has taken the side of his new recruit and turfed out an old legend.

All false but hell, gotta get them clicks.
 

Scotland

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This thread might seem less relevant in the event we don’t ignore the elite end of the draft

:'(
What happens if you are in the elite end of the draft?

The argument has been that you don't need to draft 18 year olds when you can trade for other teams' 21-26 year olds. Does that change if you get pick 5 instead of 15?
 

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rogiebear93

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What happens if you are in the elite end of the draft?

The argument has been that you don't need to draft 18 year olds when you can trade for other teams' 21-26 year olds. Does that change if you get pick 5 instead of 15?
Considering clubs track draft classes for years, I'd say that it changes depending on whether or not we're particularly interested in certain players in a given draft.

Everyone seemed to think the 2017 draft was relatively weak, but West Coast saw talent there and attacked it quite aggressively by trading an early pick from 2018 for more mid range picks.

If it boils down to the best 18 year old regardless of position, but in a position we don't need, it would seem more prudent to trade that pick for a 22 year old who is proven in a role we need to fill.

If it boils down to an 18 year old that we really like, and in a position we see a long term need being filled, it would be more prudent to take that pick to the draft.
 

Scotland

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Considering clubs track draft classes for years, I'd say that it changes depending on whether or not we're particularly interested in certain players in a given draft.

Everyone seemed to think the 2017 draft was relatively weak, but West Coast saw talent there and attacked it quite aggressively by trading an early pick from 2018 for more mid range picks.

If it boils down to the best 18 year old regardless of position, but in a position we don't need, it would seem more prudent to trade that pick for a 22 year old who is proven in a role we need to fill.

If it boils down to an 18 year old that we really like, and in a position we see a long term need being filled, it would be more prudent to take that pick to the draft.
A lot of boiling going on.

Agree that clubs target certain drafts different. 2017 we went tall then took Ryan (and intended to take Kelly) in the 20s. Our trade ended up being a big win as our first pick was 22 the next year. 2018 which everyone thought was strong at the pointy end we pretty much just sat back from because starting in the 20s we had no real currency to get to the pointy end without offloading players.

But that's slightly different to the premise of this thread. The better the pick the more trade currency it has, but whether you are using pick 1 or pick 18 you are still getting an 18 year old that is no sure thing. I would not be surprised at all to see the 'we don't need draft picks' strategy change if the first draft pick is 4-7. It's simply a value proposition and clubs are generally more likely to trade out of the first round if they are only entering at 15-20 anyway.
 

threesixpio

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What happens if you are in the elite end of the draft?

The argument has been that you don't need to draft 18 year olds when you can trade for other teams' 21-26 year olds. Does that change if you get pick 5 instead of 15?
I think if we somehow got pick one I would feel sad for losing at Bigfooty
 

WWSD

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Yes. Looks like the Chad has hitched his wagon to a falling star.
Hey how is Hunter Clark doing? You know the player who St Kilda got as a result of Hawthorn trading it’s 2017 first round pick for when half the Saints supporters on Bigfooty were celebrating at the time about how the Hawks were fed a bummer.

Now it’s looking like a pretty good deal for the Hawks and Clark is looking more and more likely to be a complete bust. He wouldn’t even rank in the top 20 in his draft class on current form and he’s wasting his career away in the VFL. Meanwhile Worpel is a top 5 talent in the 2017 draft and he was pick 45. :$:thumbsu:

Whoosh!
 

stfan

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Hey how is Hunter Clark doing? You know the player who St Kilda got as a result of Hawthorn trading it’s 2017 first round pick for when half the Saints supporters on Bigfooty were celebrating at the time about how the Hawks were fed a bummer.
Re-inventing trades now are we?



The trade was actually for three picks. So it is Battle, Long and Hunter Clark.

Battle is doing very nicely holding down CHB this year, but will probably end up a key forward. He was taken young and allowed to play school footy in his first year with just the 1 token game in his first year to expose him to AFL.

Long is coming along nicely.

Clark has been up and down but still looks like a likely regular.
 

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A-ha...i wonder where that answer came from :p

But get Mitchell back next year and maybe another year and pre-season for Wingard, i reckon the Hawks will never be far from contention. I am pleasantly surprised at how the new inclusions have turned what looked like a fairly skittish Geelong side last year to one that looks really united and determined this year. And the Dogs and Tigers each improved significantly late in the season to win Flags by being on at the right time.
 

Gavin Excell

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A-ha...i wonder where that answer came from :p

But get Mitchell back next year and maybe another year and pre-season for Wingard, i reckon the Hawks will never be far from contention. I am pleasantly surprised at how the new inclusions have turned what looked like a fairly skittish Geelong side last year to one that looks really united and determined this year. And the Dogs and Tigers each improved significantly late in the season to win Flags by being on at the right time.
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Consider this:
  • Both Richmond and WB were thought to need a total rebuild 1 & 2 years prior to their recent premierships.
Wrong. We'd already been at the bottom for 4 years. Before 2012 started, 2015 was the year we would've been expected to start challenging for the 8 at the very least.

Hawthorn's crop of players aged 23 and under is weak in the context of the whole competition. You still depend heavily on senior players like Burgoyne, Smith and Breust for your wins, and a lot of those guys are starting to hit their twilight. As guys like Frawley and Stratton retire, you'll be depending on guys like Kaiden Brand and Tim O'Brien to hold defensive posts. Any way you look at it, long term: Hawthorn's list doesn't look particularly promising.
 

hk89

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What happens if you are in the elite end of the draft?

The argument has been that you don't need to draft 18 year olds when you can trade for other teams' 21-26 year olds. Does that change if you get pick 5 instead of 15?
Will depend on how the club assesses the season, and who is available. If they get 5 or better, obviously the season hasn't been great, but if they think adding back Mitchell and having Wingard and Scully better gelled into their new team means we are still not far off being a top 4 contender, then they might well trade it. If that is the scenario, they'd probably look at who was available first though. If there was a ready made player that was capable of playing top level footy within 12 months of being drafted and available at our pick , then we'd be silly not to consider them.However, it would still depend on who was available in trade week, and that happens before we know who is going to take who, so I reckon in a scenario where the club thought we were still in a window with the right players brought in that trading the pick would be the first option.

If they think we're cooked no matter what happens or who we get, then using the pick might be the better option, or at least lower the age of any recruits we'd consider trading for. Roughy out certainly makes it seem like we might be looking at prioritising development of the kids for the rest of this season. He hasn't been great, but there are players who will still be in the side in 3 years time that have been worse and are holding their spots. A top 5 pick would certainly be handy if we want to bring in a restricted free agent if his club has enough cap space to realistically match.
 

WWSD

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Wrong. We'd already been at the bottom for 4 years. Before 2012 started, 2015 was the year we would've been expected to start challenging for the 8 at the very least.

Hawthorn's crop of players aged 23 and under is weak in the context of the whole competition. You still depend heavily on senior players like Burgoyne, Smith and Breust for your wins, and a lot of those guys are starting to hit their twilight. As guys like Frawley and Stratton retire, you'll be depending on guys like Kaiden Brand and Tim O'Brien to hold defensive posts. Any way you look at it, long term: Hawthorn's list doesn't look particularly promising.
Wrong. O’Brien and Brand won’t be around at the end of the year.

There is still penty of decent players in the best 22 that will be around for a while yet.

Morrison 20
Mitchell 25
Impey 23
Sicily 24
Worpel 20
Lewis 20
O’Meara 24
Hardwick 22
Gunston 27
Wingard 25
Scully 27
Breust 28
Shiels 28
Scrimshaw 20
Cousins 21

With Roughead, Burgoyne, Birchall, Puopolo, Frawley and Mohr all set to retire this year Hawthorn will have well over 2 million dollars in cap space.

Then there’s Smith, Henderson, Stratton, McEvoy and Schoenmakers who are all in the twilight of their careers and will be gone within the next 2-3 years.

Hawthorn will be biggest spenders during the trade/free agency period this year. Be very afraid of what’s coming soon. :)
 
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