Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?
- Thread starter Bunk Moreland
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
But then we’ll get the magic early draft picks? hawks player turnover increased 2010-2013, as in 05-07
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
The concern is probably more that the players in that group (or any age range you define) aren't all that good.
Langford, Gunston, Ceglar, Mirra, Shiels, Breust, Schoenmakers, Whitecross + Scully. Make your own mind up on that but players in that age group are from the 2009-2011 draft era anyway.
List profile stuff is interesting. If you have an excellent group of established players then you should have a good team whether they are 26/27 or 30/31. If all the talent is concentrated in the mid range then you are in a reasonable place. If all the talent is in the older players you risk falling off a cliff. If all the talent is in the younger players you risk being noncompetitive. Melbourne made it to a prelim with 10 players in the 50-100 game bracket, most of whom are pretty highly rated. Those same players a season or two ago weren't ready.
Ideally you want to maintain a good balance of players in each age group, but there's no magic formula on age and experience alone.
It's hard to argue it isn't working with Hawthorn assuming Hawthorn's aim is to win a premiership in the short term (1-3 years).
Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard, Sicily, Gunston, Breust, Stratton, Smith, Scully* is a good spread of top line players accross the ground.
Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard, Sicily, Gunston, Breust, Stratton, Smith, Scully* is a good spread of top line players accross the ground.
KermitJagger
Professional Thread Derailer
- May 17, 2017
- 13,946
- 43,308
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
I've made this point in about 10 different threads, but to get a good read on what a successful list would look like in the modern era of player movement you have to look at other sports. When you do look at other sports where there is greater player motility, it is the oldest and most experienced sides that see the most success and find themselves at the top - that is because they employ a list management strategy that Hawthorn have been subtly mimicking for a long time now, and one that other clubs have recently started following suit with.
It's straight out of the Popovich/Belichik playbook - you have your established stars and you target players who can perform roles to sure up any weaknesses. Hawthorn for the past 3 years have unfortunately had to go down the bath of replacing established stars rather than their bit part players, which is new territory for the AFL, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out as Sicily, Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard, Scully, Gunston and Breust are a pretty good core of players and they're all in that 24-28 range. Amongst that group are 3 reigning All Australians, including a Brownlow Medallist, and one guy who was a wrist injury away from being our 4th AA selection. Smith may be pushing 30 too but he started AFL late and has been very durable so physically he's a lot younger.
There is a lot of discussion about age profile and how younger lists are so superior to older and more established lists. Makes absolutely zero sense because if you win a premiership with a young list like Hawthorn ‘08, Collingwood ‘10 or Dogs ‘16 you are no garauntee of keeping the list together for the lifetime of the young list.
Much better off to have an older and more established list and plug holes where needed.
In the case of Hawthorn, no doubt they will face challenges at the book ends especially if guys like Brand and O’Brien don’t come on. But they will fill those gaps by trading, FA or draft.
Modern football has moved past slow rebuilding. Player movement is increasing and there really isn’t any excuse for slow builds these days.
Much better off to have an older and more established list and plug holes where needed.
In the case of Hawthorn, no doubt they will face challenges at the book ends especially if guys like Brand and O’Brien don’t come on. But they will fill those gaps by trading, FA or draft.
Modern football has moved past slow rebuilding. Player movement is increasing and there really isn’t any excuse for slow builds these days.
Gralin
Super Moderator
- Moderator
- #459
the bolded four do not belong on the same list as the other four
Gunston and Breust would walk into any forward line in the league
Scully pre anke would walk into any midfield, if he gets back to that he's a win
Shiels is workmanlike but he's the defensive mid in our rotations, does the dirty work, a few clubs could use someone like him, he's VC for a reason
Langers had one good post season, Cegs is good enough to be a first ruck at quite a few clubs, should be better this year further removed from the ACL
Mirra, Schoey and Swiss are all depth options but you need those at any club and some senior depth is good for teaching the kids playing in the twos
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
It's an interesting comparison, but the Spurs and Patriots have been built around franchise players which are harder to come by in the AFL system. Spurs had Robinson and then Duncan, and then Leonard, plus Parker, Ginobli etc. who were regular starters and more role players. Take Duncan out of that starting 5 and it would have made a massive difference. He won 3 finals MVPs.
I don't follow the NFL at all but the Patriots have had Tom Brady at QB for all of their Super Bowl wins and he was MVP for 4 of them. Hawthorn won 4 flags and the NS went to Hodge, Lake, Hodge, Rioli. Geelong won 3 and the NS went to Johnson, Chapman, Bartel. Brisbane won 3 and it was Hart, Buckley (Pies), Black. You could make an argument that in the the last decade or so Judd, Ablett, Franklin, Martin, Dangerfield, Fyfe have all had claims on being the best player in the comp at various stages. None of them are so influential that they drag their team into the finals every year and a player winning 3 or 4 NS medals would be unheard of. A 22 a side game is very different to a 5 a side. Or whatever NFL is where star QBs make a big difference.
One big difference between the AFL and other equalised comps is the draft age. Franklin, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Rioli, Lewis for example were all drafted as kids and turned out to be stars. No guarantees any 18 year old kid becomes a star no matter how good they are in the TAC Cup or how good a club's developlment is. Same applies in the NBA but it's different drafting 20/21 year olds with a few years of college form to go on. Every few years a club has a strong draft haul and it gives them a massive leg up.
Player movement is getting slightly easier but FAs can still only move after 8 years and clubs have the ability to match meaning that getting a top FA means you are forking out 5-10% of your salary cap at least.
From my perspective I am not concerned about our list profile at all (I think we're about average for age/experience in the 22) except for the fact that Josh Kennedy is 31. We've drafted 3 talls in the hope one will be as good but the reality is none probably will be and there aren't many ready made out there that are. That's the concern with trying to replace top players.
I don't follow the NFL at all but the Patriots have had Tom Brady at QB for all of their Super Bowl wins and he was MVP for 4 of them. Hawthorn won 4 flags and the NS went to Hodge, Lake, Hodge, Rioli. Geelong won 3 and the NS went to Johnson, Chapman, Bartel. Brisbane won 3 and it was Hart, Buckley (Pies), Black. You could make an argument that in the the last decade or so Judd, Ablett, Franklin, Martin, Dangerfield, Fyfe have all had claims on being the best player in the comp at various stages. None of them are so influential that they drag their team into the finals every year and a player winning 3 or 4 NS medals would be unheard of. A 22 a side game is very different to a 5 a side. Or whatever NFL is where star QBs make a big difference.
One big difference between the AFL and other equalised comps is the draft age. Franklin, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Rioli, Lewis for example were all drafted as kids and turned out to be stars. No guarantees any 18 year old kid becomes a star no matter how good they are in the TAC Cup or how good a club's developlment is. Same applies in the NBA but it's different drafting 20/21 year olds with a few years of college form to go on. Every few years a club has a strong draft haul and it gives them a massive leg up.
Player movement is getting slightly easier but FAs can still only move after 8 years and clubs have the ability to match meaning that getting a top FA means you are forking out 5-10% of your salary cap at least.
From my perspective I am not concerned about our list profile at all (I think we're about average for age/experience in the 22) except for the fact that Josh Kennedy is 31. We've drafted 3 talls in the hope one will be as good but the reality is none probably will be and there aren't many ready made out there that are. That's the concern with trying to replace top players.
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
They do because that's the age bracket they are in. Can't really make a call on any team's players in a certain age bracket if you only count the good or s**t ones. It's not a bad list. A couple of very good players, a couple of OK ones and a couple of depth guys. I don't know why '26-28' came up in the first place, it's not really guys who are close to retirement.
KermitJagger
Professional Thread Derailer
- May 17, 2017
- 13,946
- 43,308
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
You've agreed with my points essentially.
Yes they were built around franchise players, and yes the draft is a lottery. Hawks have identified that and how important it is considering the age of our draftees. Clearly the strategy is to draft some kids with potential, pay overs in trades for established stars (doesn't necessarily have to mean free agency) and pay unders for kids that have been in the system a few years but may not be turning out at other clubs.
I don't know if it will work, but in my opinion Wingard, O'Meara and Mitchell all have franchise player ability. Clearly the goal has been to replace a core of however many players are required, and the role players can come from anywhere like the spurs dragged Ginobili from Europe.
We keep getting references to melbourne
Get back to is when they actually do something
Cats Sydney eagles operate similarly to Hawthorn need I elaborate further?
Get back to is when they actually do something
Cats Sydney eagles operate similarly to Hawthorn need I elaborate further?
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Yep. I said that's the concern, not that IMO all those players are duds.
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
We've 'topped up' to a degree but our only superstar recruit is Elliott Yeo who came in as a 21 year old who hadn't done much yet.
Wellingham was a failure, Redden got off to a slow start but has hit his straps now Priddis is gone. Jetta for Sinclair is a 0-0 draw and we recruit a mediocre ruckman most years. I'm happy with trading in experienced players but I wouldn't want us to be out of top 20 of the draft for 3 or 4 years in a row.
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
The bolded is an interesting strategy. Clubs are effectively using GC/GWS as development farms which the AFL won't be happy with. A few are having some success with it, Carlton seem to just take anyone going.
What ?
Your dynasty is over. Finished. Done and dusted. Consigned to history.
You've lost your last 4 finals.
Your current collective are far from special. I don't want Melbourne compared to your list because it's a mile better.
TheFourPillars
Brownlow Medallist
Veteran
10k Posts
Hawthorn Hawks - Conor Nash Player Sponsor 2021
Hawthorn Hawks - James Cousins Player Sponsor 2021
Hawthorn Hawks - Conor Nash Player Sponsor 2020
Hawthorn Hawks - James Cousins Player Sponsor 2020
Hawthorn Hawks - Conor Nash Player Sponsor 2019
Hawthorn Hawks - James Cousins Player Sponsor 2019
- May 6, 2009
- 16,204
- 49,320
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Lists are irrelevant. Its output that matters. No one cares what your team looks like on paper. The game is not played on paper. Its team output never individual output. Just remember this in the coming years
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Hawthorn: list looks like it has some holes, straight sets, 12th, straight sets the last 3 years
Melbourne: list looks good on paper but have achieved nothing to this point, prelim flogging, Rd 23 choke, 11th the last 3 years
Do we have the making of the next BigFooty shitfight?
Melbourne: list looks good on paper but have achieved nothing to this point, prelim flogging, Rd 23 choke, 11th the last 3 years
Do we have the making of the next BigFooty shitfight?
Gralin
Super Moderator
- Moderator
- #472
Your post again
Now if you mean we have players across all age bracket that aren't that good, as opposed to that we don't have any players that are that good I can understand.
Squads get you to premierships and being able to put your best teams on the park in finals win you premerships
You need around 30 decent players over the course of a season, every club will put some games into kids or depth players due to injury/suspension/rest so most clubs use 35-40 from their list
You don't expect some of those to really be any good or play much
We have a decent 22, not amazing but decent, we have some nice players in the 23-30 range, mostly unproven as yet or just your regular AFL journeymen who help you get through a season, its really the top end that is the issue.
KP stocks are slim pickings and last year we were a few match winners short. Time is running out for some of our old match winners and replacing them is the challenge at the moment.
We've picked up a couple and uncovered a couple but we need to see progress from a few others next year and probably grab a couple more next off season to really start having the talent on the list to contend.
We're in the boat as about 10 other teams in that sense, so it will be interesting to see whether our system works better or worse than theirs for filling holes on the list
someone said melbourne had a dynasty once what happened? ignore the draft too much?
Mate we should have had a rivalry with the "dees" after 1996 but frankly, thy're just not worthy
- Status
Similar threads
- Poll
