Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? | Page 22 | BigFooty

Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Bunk Moreland, Oct 18, 2018.

  1. Trav 20

    Trav 20 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Exhibit A.
     

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  2. Leather Poisoning

    Leather Poisoning Moderator

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    Hawks have completely rebuilt their midfield in 3 seasons.
    O'Meara, Mitchell, Wingard, Scully, Impey are 5 players we've brought in. Scully's injuries well documented of course. That happened in 3 seasons - it's absolutely amazing.

    Compare to the extremely good Melbourne midfield (going off footywire positions - happy for dees fans to put a more accurate list)):
    Jones, Kennedy-Harris, Oliver, Viney, Stretch.

    Think of how many years it took for Melbourne to bring its midfield up to speed. The misses like Toumpas, Trengove, Tyson, etc - or guys like Petracca and Salem who were high draft picks who would have been viewed as potential starting midfielders when drafted and you can start to compare the relative costs in terms of draft picks and seasons of development in developing an acceptable, competitive midfield.

    I'm not necessarily saying one is better than another - but when comparing which approach is best you need to consider opportunity cost (players drafted that didn't make it) and development cost (years in the system before the player is producing solid, quality 'better-than-his-opponent' footy).
     
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  3. Roddy

    Roddy Norm Smith Medallist

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    Every hawthorn related thread has its own individual resident obsessive Hawk-hater, who spends inordinate amounts of their time posting ceaselessly about a team they obviously despise. It’s so funny to see.
     
  4. Trav 20

    Trav 20 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Our first two rebuilds failed. We're on our third. We're not a decent example from developing through the draft - unless, of course, you only look at the draft from 2013 on-wards. There are only 5 players left from when Roos took over prior to the draft in 2013. And even then, Roos brought in rubbish like Lumumba, Bugg, etc.

    Our best 4 mids are Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, and Harmes
     
  5. Pessimistic

    Pessimistic TheBrownDog

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    All clubs have holes, or emerging holes. Except maybe west coast.

    Three clubs under rated by bookies tis coming season. West coast, hawthorn, north melbourne
     
  6. Pessimistic

    Pessimistic TheBrownDog

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    It’s just as well only 2-4 clubs persisted with that approach
     
  7. Trav 20

    Trav 20 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Which approach ? Drafting choir boys, or developing your list through the draft ?

    And how could I forget yet another choir boy - Toumpas.
     
  8. gangsta deluxe

    gangsta deluxe Norm Smith Medallist

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    False.

    Boyd(1), Bont(4), Macrae(6), Stringer(5)...Then a whole bunch from 10-50

    Our list was pretty much fully made up from our own draft picks, with only 3 players in the full team having been traded in (Biggs, Hamling, Boyd),
     
  9. gangsta deluxe

    gangsta deluxe Norm Smith Medallist

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    Only Bont, Macrae and Stringer then :drunk:

    We did have more players from the Rookie list, but that doesn't mean top ten picks arent a critically important commodity that one can easily do without.
     
  10. Luv_our_club

    Luv_our_club Premiership Player

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    Yeah, i had a look and the Eagles have had a first round pick almost every year since their flag, and they rarely take their first pick in the 20's.

    They came to mind just because they have not really bottomed out since 2006, finishing
    3rd in 2007
    15th in 2008,
    11th in 2009
    16th in 2010,
    and 13th in 2013.
    But between those years they finished 4th in 2011 and 5th 2012. So they bounced back hard.

    Their last 4 season have been 2nd, 6th, 8th, 2nd.

    Some great drafting.
     
  11. Leather Poisoning

    Leather Poisoning Moderator

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    So there you go - 4 best mids are draftees.
    Hawks 4 best mids are imports. (Unless you count Isaac Smith and Shiels).
     

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  12. Scotland

    Scotland Hall of Famer

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    FWIW the last top 10 pick we used was #4 in 2010 on Andrew Gaff. We had a bunch of good picks in 2007 after the Judd trade in 07 (Masten, Ebert, Selwood - could've done better), 2 & 18 in 2008 (Naitanui & Shuey), 7 in 2009 (Sheppard) and 4 in 2010 (Gaff).

    We've been to the last 7 drafts with 23, 45, 11, 11, 28, 13, 13 as our first picks. 2013's pick 6 was traded for 11 (Sheed) & 28 (on traded for Yeo). 2012 and 2015's first round picks (17/18) were traded for Wellingham and Redden.

    An important aspect of list management is keeping one eye on the future even when you are at/near the top. And also not having too many years where your recruiting haul is a complete write off.
     
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  13. Pessimistic

    Pessimistic TheBrownDog

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    So look a little closer and none of the 4 melb mids mentioned is taken with a pick due to being low on the ladder

    Oliver pick was traded for, Brayshaw a compo pick, Viney a father son and Harmes a rookie pick.

    So even Melbourne are getting inventive
     
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  14. Simon_Nesbit

    Simon_Nesbit Brownlow Medallist

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    Not sure on the answer, just to find a comparison - 2018 list sorted by first drafted year. Bold are first 22, Underline top 10

    Hawthorn
    2000 - Burgoyne
    2004 - Roughead
    2005 - Birchall
    2006 - Frawley
    2007 - McEvoy, Rioli, Whitecross
    2008 - Vickery, Schoenmakers, Shiels, Henderson, Breust
    2009 - Gunston, Stratton, Duryea
    2010 - Ceglar, Smith, Puopolo, Langford
    2011 - O'Meara, Mitchell
    2012 - O'Rourke, O'Brien, Brand
    2013 - Impey, Sicily, Willsmore, Heatherley
    2014 - Howe, Miles, Pittonet
    2015 - Burton, Lovell, Hardwick, Glass
    2016 - Nash, Morrison, Lewis, Hanrahan, Cousins
    2017 - Jiath, Worpel, Moore, Ross, Jones, Mirra

    vs
    Hawthorn DRAFT not TRADE:
    2000 #12 Burgoyne (!!)
    2001 (No Hodge, no Mitchell)
    2002 (No current players)
    2003 (No current players)
    2004 (No Lewis)
    2005 (No Birchall, No Bailey)
    2006 (No current players)
    2007 (No Trades)
    2008 (No Trades)
    2009 (No Gibson, no Burgoyne*) - Andrew Moore (Box Hill Captain!) - (No current players)
    2010 (No Hale, no Cheney) - (No current players)
    2011 (No Gunston) - #64 Cam Ellis-Yeoman
    2012 (No Lake) - #21 Nathan Hrovat
    2013 (No McEvoy) - #18 Luke Dunstan, #19 Blake Acres
    2014 (No O'Rourke) - #40 Alex Neal-Bullen
    2015 (No Fitzpatrick) - (No current players)
    2016 (No Mitchell, No O'Meara) - #15 Jordan Galluci, #23 Alex Witherdan, 2017 #7 Hunter Clark, 2017 #26 Liam Ryan
    2017 (No Impey) - (No current players)

    To sum up the differences:
    OUT:
    Impey, Mitchell, O'Meara, O'Rourke, McEvoy, Gunston,
    IN:
    Galluci, Witherdan, Clark, Ryan, Neal-Bullen, Dunston, Acres, Hrovat, Ellis-Yeoman

    Hawks have made certainly made mistakes in trades (O'Rourke), but far less than drafting. The comparison would only provide for a slight upgrade on the current youth, and it's pretty safe to say there's not a three-peat, probably not even a premiership in recent history of that second list.
     
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  15. Luv_our_club

    Luv_our_club Premiership Player

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    Wow... 2013 was a great post season haul.... and probably miserable for you during the actual season.

    The Hawks and Geelong have had a lot less of those early picks, because they have traded them out, and haven't yet fallen to the very bottom. Geelong last won in 2011 and have had no joy yet topping up their list. Hoping the Hawks can be the first to win by employing a similar strategy.
     
  16. Luv_our_club

    Luv_our_club Premiership Player

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    That's a great display of the facts.

    On the larger question, we would not have 4 flags without drafting Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Buddy, Roughy, Birchall. Those drafted players were hitting their peak when we traded for experienced players like Hale, Lake, Gibson,

    But this time around we are not adding mature age players to a strong list. This time we are actually building a strong list with mature age players.

    As you say, the facts don't necessarily provide the answer on whether it is possible to build a premiership list by mainly trading for players that don't have 10 years left in the game.
     
  17. Trav 20

    Trav 20 Norm Smith Medallist

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    We got Brayshaw's compensation pick because we finished 17. You know, second last.

    We traded up to get Oliver, but still only won 7 games the year we drafted him. We were a bottom club.
     
  18. Pessimistic

    Pessimistic TheBrownDog

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    And hawthorn haven’t been a bottom club for ages. Only roughy survives from those days
     
  19. Trav 20

    Trav 20 Norm Smith Medallist

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    So ?
     
  20. worldlylizard19

    worldlylizard19 Debutant

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    I'm still not sure what the point of the thread is. For a club to load up on the elite end of the draft requires multiple bottom 6 finishes, or to trade out good players for said picks. If a team has been too good to finish bottom 6 for a long time what exactly are you expecting them to do? Just give up and head to the bottom of the ladder?
     
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  21. DannyJ

    DannyJ Premiership Player

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    It's a beautiful thing

    Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
     
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  22. DannyJ

    DannyJ Premiership Player

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    Interesting to note Hawks landed three former top 7 picks in the trade period.

    Dont have to go to the draft to get talent.

    The way you build a list is expanding before our eyes.

    Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
     
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  23. matey

    matey Club Legend

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    When Clarko and Hawks win their next premiership watch all the AFL clubs start sending their coaches overseas to learn off the biggest clubs/organisations around the world playing other sports!
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2018
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  24. GerryLewis

    GerryLewis Team Captain

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    I have been trying to say this for a while but have been unable to articulate in under 2 paragraphs. Well done sir.
     
  25. Davo23

    Davo23 Premium Platinum

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    Hey, Trav 20, are your initials “HCQ”?
    If yes, Harry, at the end of each you tell me how next year is Melbourne’s year, and the year the Hawks tumble down the ladder. You’ve gone early this year!

    Face it, all Melbourne players have the ambition of living in a Toorak mansion, and that’s the best you will do. Your supporters all do.

    Beats winning mundane AFL premierships, I guess.
     
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