Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

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Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
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Read my comment.

You are comparing these blokes to the champions/dynasty you had which is disrespectful to that great team. These blokes arent even in the same sentence at the moment. Bragging about Tim O'brien is one of the most amazing things ive read on here
The doggies won a flag they are nowhere near the 13-15 champions either. This thread is not can hawthorn do another threepeat in the next few years btw.
 

matey

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This thread isn’t about us. It’s about Hawthorn
But when critics predict and tell us all how the Hawks are doomed moving forward due to its list management strategy during it’s rebuild it should be ok to highlight examples of the approach used by other clubs where it isn’t working. Unfortunately for some the Blues are a good example.
 

Wesley2

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The doggies won a flag they are nowhere near the 13-15 champions either. This thread is not can hawthorn do another threepeat in the next few years btw.
"Hawthorn can only win with the 13-15 champions"

It's an inherently faulty premise, as you hinted to - the last 3 teams have won flags without them, but some people will cling to it like a life jacket.
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
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"Hawthorn can only win with the 13-15 champions"

It's an inherently faulty premise, as you hinted to - the last 3 teams have won flags without them, but some people will cling to it like a life jacket.
Not to mention bigfooty finding any fault they could with said champions during the mentioned champion period
 

Blue1980

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But when critics predict and tell us all how the Hawks are doomed moving forward due to its list management strategy during it’s rebuild it should be ok to highlight examples of the approach used by other clubs where it isn’t working. Unfortunately for some the Blues are a good example.
Well it hasn’t previously no. Our problems in the past have been many and varied, our issue was recruiting terribly when we became a decent side from 09, which basically continued until 2014. Hawks excelled in continually adding to their existing core with excellent additions of experienced players from other clubs.

It’s not impossible for the hawks to mount another challenge quickly. The competition is so even, hawthorn are banking on the fact they aren’t that far away so if they add a few pieces they might be right back in the mix.

If they get Coniglio and Patton comes and plays a role, combine that with Mitchell as well then who knows what’s possible?

The flip side of that is the older guys, how long they can keep going and play regularly to a high level. Also depends on how much the young guys can develop.

Still lots of unknowns but they ain’t dead yet.
 

matey

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Well it hasn’t previously no. Our problems in the past have been many and varied, our issue was recruiting terribly when we became a decent side from 09, which basically continued until 2014. Hawks excelled in continually adding to their existing core with excellent additions of experienced players from other clubs.

It’s not impossible for the hawks to mount another challenge quickly. The competition is so even, hawthorn are banking on the fact they aren’t that far away so if they add a few pieces they might be right back in the mix.

If they get Coniglio and Patton comes and plays a role, combine that with Mitchell as well then who knows what’s possible?

The flip side of that is the older guys, how long they can keep going and play regularly to a high level. Also depends on how much the young guys can develop.

Still lots of unknowns but they ain’t dead yet.
Yeah but that flip side doesn’t exist anymore as the oldies haven’t kept going and been playing to a high level. There will be a few changes at the end of the year. Not easy to mange this, staggering older players out after a period of some success. I am sure Clarko and Wright have lost a lot of sleep trying to do it without smashing the club, working within the AFL rules and still looking into the future.

The positive signs over the last few months is that wins/good performances have been on the back of the younger playing group giving Hawk fans plenty of optimism for the future. But as you say still a lot of unknowns and curve balls .... like at any other club.
 

mattwa

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Yo

It's all potential ATM unless your a fortune teller you know just as much as anyone else how English is going to turn out. He is starting because he is your only genuine ruck on your list. How is it a ridiculous comment mate I'm talking about the here and now not in 5 years time. We also have a young ruck called Mark Pittonet who could be very good in 5 years time that's the point. He isn't playing because he has 2 better rucks in front of him. Your sprouting crap and hopeful thinking because you are another one of the armchair critics who want to see the demise of the Hawks.
You watching English now? He is going to dominate your rucks for years
 

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Barlow#14

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Essendon supporters please do keep telling us what we need to do to succeed.
Essendons list is garbage tbh. They have some nice players here and there but for the most part the better ones need to play out of position to accommodate for the garbage ones.

But whats happening is the few good ones are forced to play other roles so C Graders can fill out the best 22 and not be complete liabilities.
 

hk89

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Very narrow description of “elite”. As I wrote in the OP, what’s remarkable is Hawthorn’s wholesale trading out of all first and second round picks... not just the top 10.

Players like Rioli, Mitchell, Shiels and Birchall were all top 40 picks. There’s no doubt the core of those great teams came through the draft, that’s whats interesting about this complete turnaround in approach.
You're now including Shiels and Mitchell at picks 34 and 36 and implying they are early picks? The 2015 team had 7 of the 22 flag winning players picked inside the top 30 picks. The rest were after pick 30 or traded in. Even widening from top 10 to top 30, and less than a third of the list came from those top 30 picks. Lots of posters exaggerate the extend to which Hawthorn circa 2015 was built with early picks, given top 30 is pretty inclusive, and still only accounts for a total of 7 players.

You're right though, what we are doing now is a shift. We've hardly kept a top 30 pick, and instead are using them at the trade table pretty much every year now. I don't see any reason to think spending them in the draft on hopefuls is any better than spending them on ready made players. Both ways of getting in elite talent, the latter a bit more expensive perhaps, but also with more certainty.
 

Cadillac

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Apart from Bont who are your bonafide game breakers out of that lot?, they get a s**tload of footy alot of them but are they really that influential?, I'd back Mitchell, Worpedo, Jaeger, Cogs (if he comes), Wingard and Shiels over your mids. If your going to throw in Hunter may as well put Scully and Henderson. Where are you blokes on the ladder I forgot was it top 4? Because your blowing your trumpet like the Dogs are miles better than us and their clearly not.
F*****g laughable.
And this 18 year old bloke pictured could be as good as any of them with a pre season under his belt.
20D60AFF-236C-4FA2-A0E6-D71F75E94D01.jpeg
 

Guardian Hawk

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Give it a few more years before we make any calls.
Lewis has looked promising no doubt hawks can develop their players. I'm not sure of the stats but I'm sure Charlie kicked 7 and 3 in 2 back to back games before he injured his knee.

Back to the thread I don't believe right now your team as good as you have been for that 10 year stretch are in contention or look likely to be in contention.
What I feel you guys need to get back to contention provided no injuries and current veteran outputs stay the same

Another elite mid (cogs) ?
KPP forward patton ?

The veterans will start to retire soon, I'm not sure you can keep attracting players that fill out roles that are elite.
Draft you need to fill these holes.
Will be interesting.
Yes, noticed after closer inspection that Curnow had managed it too and deleted accordingly.

Agree with your assessment of the Hawthorn list too - although it's looking possible Lewis and OBrien (with Gunston) become an ok key forward combo (Still not completely convinced yet on OBrien after a long period of mediocrity prior to his recent form).

I think other another hole we need to fill is key defence. Frawley is doing a great job but is over 30. Brand is ok at best and Kozi is unproven.
 

btdg

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But when critics predict and tell us all how the Hawks are doomed moving forward due to its list management strategy during it’s rebuild it should be ok to highlight examples of the approach used by other clubs where it isn’t working. Unfortunately for some the Blues are a good example.
To play devils advocate, Carlton’s run from 1987 to 2001 has a lot of parallels to Hawthorns from 2008-present:

1987/2008: Both teams pinched a premiership from an all-time great rival led by a young core of stars (Kernahan, Bradley, Silvagni vs Buddy, Hosge, Mitchell, etc) and an older bunch of vets

88-92 and 09-12: both teams were thereabouts but couldn’t get to the same levels as veterans dropped off

93-95 and 13-15: both teams had a sustained run of success. Carlton lost the ‘93 GF and had a debacle of a finals series in 94 before an historic 95 season. Hawthorn 3x premierships.

96-98 and 16-17: both teams appeared to have Father Time catching up at last but went to trades rather than the draft to prolong things

99 and 18: both teams suddenly launched back to the top 4 on the back of a phenomenal individual season by a star player (Koutoufides and Mitchell). Both teams topped up further on mature players in the offseason while apparently restocking with great young players cheaply as well (we had Whitnall kick 80+ goals as a 20 year old). Both teams also had an ageing core with one timeless player (Bradley/Burgoyne) and an experienced veteran coach, as well as a polarising, outspoken president with liberal party links (Elliott/Kennett).

We were also a famously arrogant team that refused to rebuild. And that arguably set off our death spiral...

There’s some differences, of course, but I find the parallels interesting.

The canary in the coal mine for Carlton was Hamill leaving for St Kilda. Throughout our run we had never lost a player we wanted to keep like that. I won’t say Burton fits the same category, but what I will say is brining in top tier 23 and 24 year olds gets expensive, and that means compromises. Or salary cap pressure and breaches...

It didn’t crash down for us until 2002 after the veteran coach moved on and his hand picked replacement just wasn’t as good (hmmm - no chance of that before 2022 is there?), our star player did a serious knee injury (yikes) and a few young guys didn’t quite make the leap we hoped after looking amazing as teenagers. Then the guys we’d topped up with were suddenly ageing and there was nothing in the cupboard to replace them (note: O’Meara will be 28, Wingard and Mitchell 29, etc in 2022).
 
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Gavin Excell

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To play devils advocate, Carlton’s run from 1987 to 2001 has a lot of parallels to Hawthorns from 2008-present:

1987/2008: Both teams pinched a premiership from an all-time great rival led by a young core of stars (Kernahan, Bradley, Silvagni vs Buddy, Hosge, Mitchell, etc) and an older bunch of vets

88-92 and 09-12: both teams were thereabouts but couldn’t get to the same levels as veterans dropped off

93-95 and 13-15: both teams had a sustained run of success. Carlton lost the ‘93 GF and had a debacle of a finals series in 94 before an historic 95 season. Hawthorn 3x premierships.

96-98 and 16-17: both teams appeared to have Father Time catching up at last but went to trades rather than the draft to prolong things

99 and 18: both teams suddenly launched back to the top 4 on the back of a phenomenal individual season by a star player (Koutoufides and Mitchell). Both teams topped up further on mature players in the offseason while apparently restocking with great young players cheaply as well (we had Whitnall kick 80+ goals as a 20 year old). Both teams also had an ageing core with one timeless player (Bradley/Burgoyne) and an experienced veteran coach, as well as a polarising, outspoken president with liberal party links (Elliott/Kennett).

We were also a famously arrogant team that refused to rebuild. And that arguably set off our death spiral...

There’s some differences, of course, but I find the parallels interesting.

The canary in the coal mine for Carlton was Hamill leaving for St Kilda. Throughout our run we had never lost a player we wanted to keep like that. I won’t say Burton fits the same category, but what I will say is brining in top tier 23 and 24 year olds gets expensive, and that means compromises. Or salary cap pressure and breaches...
Interesting post
 

TallyHawk

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To play devils advocate, Carlton’s run from 1987 to 2001 has a lot of parallels to Hawthorns from 2008-present:

1987/2008: Both teams pinched a premiership from an all-time great rival led by a young core of stars (Kernahan, Bradley, Silvagni vs Buddy, Hosge, Mitchell, etc) and an older bunch of vets

88-92 and 09-12: both teams were thereabouts but couldn’t get to the same levels as veterans dropped off

93-95 and 13-15: both teams had a sustained run of success. Carlton lost the ‘93 GF and had a debacle of a finals series in 94 before an historic 95 season. Hawthorn 3x premierships.

96-98 and 16-17: both teams appeared to have Father Time catching up at last but went to trades rather than the draft to prolong things

99 and 18: both teams suddenly launched back to the top 4 on the back of a phenomenal individual season by a star player (Koutoufides and Mitchell). Both teams topped up further on mature players in the offseason while apparently restocking with great young players cheaply as well (we had Whitnall kick 80+ goals as a 20 year old). Both teams also had an ageing core with one timeless player (Bradley/Burgoyne) and an experienced veteran coach, as well as a polarising, outspoken president with liberal party links (Elliott/Kennett).

We were also a famously arrogant team that refused to rebuild. And that arguably set off our death spiral...

There’s some differences, of course, but I find the parallels interesting.

The canary in the coal mine for Carlton was Hamill leaving for St Kilda. Throughout our run we had never lost a player we wanted to keep like that. I won’t say Burton fits the same category, but what I will say is brining in top tier 23 and 24 year olds gets expensive, and that means compromises. Or salary cap pressure and breaches...

It didn’t crash down for us until 2002 after the veteran coach moved on and his hand picked replacement just wasn’t as good (hmmm - no chance of that before 2022 is there?), our star player did a serious knee injury (yikes) and a few young guys didn’t quite make the leap we hoped after looking amazing as teenagers. Then the guys we’d topped up with were suddenly ageing and there was nothing in the cupboard to replace them (note: O’Meara will be 28, Wingard and Mitchell 29, etc in 2022).
That's a bit of a stretch.


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Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
Sep 13, 2000
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To play devils advocate, Carlton’s run from 1987 to 2001 has a lot of parallels to Hawthorns from 2008-present:

1987/2008: Both teams pinched a premiership from an all-time great rival led by a young core of stars (Kernahan, Bradley, Silvagni vs Buddy, Hosge, Mitchell, etc) and an older bunch of vets

88-92 and 09-12: both teams were thereabouts but couldn’t get to the same levels as veterans dropped off

93-95 and 13-15: both teams had a sustained run of success. Carlton lost the ‘93 GF and had a debacle of a finals series in 94 before an historic 95 season. Hawthorn 3x premierships.

96-98 and 16-17: both teams appeared to have Father Time catching up at last but went to trades rather than the draft to prolong things

99 and 18: both teams suddenly launched back to the top 4 on the back of a phenomenal individual season by a star player (Koutoufides and Mitchell). Both teams topped up further on mature players in the offseason while apparently restocking with great young players cheaply as well (we had Whitnall kick 80+ goals as a 20 year old). Both teams also had an ageing core with one timeless player (Bradley/Burgoyne) and an experienced veteran coach, as well as a polarising, outspoken president with liberal party links (Elliott/Kennett).

We were also a famously arrogant team that refused to rebuild. And that arguably set off our death spiral...

There’s some differences, of course, but I find the parallels interesting.

The canary in the coal mine for Carlton was Hamill leaving for St Kilda. Throughout our run we had never lost a player we wanted to keep like that. I won’t say Burton fits the same category, but what I will say is brining in top tier 23 and 24 year olds gets expensive, and that means compromises. Or salary cap pressure and breaches...

It didn’t crash down for us until 2002 after the veteran coach moved on and his hand picked replacement just wasn’t as good (hmmm - no chance of that before 2022 is there?), our star player did a serious knee injury (yikes) and a few young guys didn’t quite make the leap we hoped after looking amazing as teenagers. Then the guys we’d topped up with were suddenly ageing and there was nothing in the cupboard to replace them (note: O’Meara will be 28, Wingard and Mitchell 29, etc in 2022).
You missed the 2001 draft which set a few clubs up for a decade or more. Then kept rebuilding Ad infinitum No need to even mention judd
 

btdg

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That's a bit of a stretch.


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There’s obviously a lot of differences too, but I’ve been watching this parallel for a while and it’s an eerily similar path.

The big question for me has always been whether Carlton’s downfall was inevitable; it felt like the path was a tightrope and only a few wrong moves sent us spiralling. The big mistakes were:

- Missing on a big name recruit. Stephen O’Reilly was the one we hoped to build our defence around and he was a massive bust

- getting the coach handover wrong

- injuries (Kouta, Whitnall the biggies)

- dipping back into the draft heavily in 2000, a ver weak year (3 picks in the top 20, all bust-ish)

Had we traded those 2000 picks for most established guys, kept Parkin coaching and not had the injuries derail things... we already had Fev and Waite coming through as well...

That’s whats most interesting to see. I reckon it’s a very similar pathway... whether the destination can be better is the really cool queation
 
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