Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
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So you think (apart from the missing 2001 draft disaster) that carlton could have traded in players whenthe time was right?

Can I suggest carltons heirarchy is too blinkered to see the reality of its own shortcomings? And still is? That as you hint they only stumbled on success briefly. But used that as evidence that they know best?

Id suggest hawthorn is very good at self examination, consistently.
 

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threesixpio

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So you think (apart from the missing 2001 draft disaster) that carlton could have traded in players whenthe time was right?

Can I suggest carltons heirarchy is too blinkered to see the reality of its own shortcomings? And still is? That as you hint they only stumbled on success briefly. But used that as evidence that they know best?

Id suggest hawthorn is very good at self examination, consistently.
We examine ourselves with great enthusiasm- and many others examine us too.

Page 265
 

btdg

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So you think (apart from the missing 2001 draft disaster) that carlton could have traded in players whenthe time was right?

Can I suggest carltons heirarchy is too blinkered to see the reality of its own shortcomings? And still is? That as you hint they only stumbled on success briefly. But used that as evidence that they know best?

Id suggest hawthorn is very good at self examination, consistently.
I think your analysis of Carlton’s shortcomings at that time is spot on, and I wonder if we had jaguar got a few more things right whether the outcome could have been different - in other words, can Hawthorn follow a similar path but do it better?

That said, how confident are you that Hawthorn is actually different?

In mid 2000 Carlton looked like straight up geniuses, sitting in second spot on and in a 12 game winning streak.

That’s still a year off in your timeline imo - I’m not sure Hawthorn’s peak arrogance and self-congratulation phase has even started yet.

Plus the ‘18 draft looks like the closest we have seen to “01 since... and like Carlton in 2001, Hawthorn were basically non players.
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
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Hawthorn looked good in 2000-2001 too.

Dead meat in 2003-2004.

Lets say they were in a similar place to carlton. lets just look at them year on year from then. Obviously the 2001 draft was key. Hawks got lots of supporter grief over trading croad too, and the recruiter got grief when judd helped eagles win a flag and hodge was still a party boy

Fwiw hawks had crucial misses in 05 and 06 missing potentially selwood and pendles

Theres certainly luck, but i reckon the difference is hawthorns willingness to self examine its heirarchy
 

btdg

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Hawthorn looked good in 2000-2001 too.

Dead meat in 2003-2004.

Lets say they were in a similar place to carlton. lets just look at them year on year from then. Obviously the 2001 draft was key. Hawks got lots of supporter grief over trading croad too, and the recruiter got grief when judd helped eagles win a flag and hodge was still a party boy

Fwiw hawks had crucial misses in 05 and 06 missing potentially selwood and pendles

Theres certainly luck, but i reckon the difference is hawthorns willingness to self examine its heirarchy
Sure, but Hawthorns thing in 01 and 04-5 was to self examine and actively trade out established players to get into the top end of the draft.

Carlton from 98-02 didn’t do that, instead following the path Hawthorn are on now - trading draft picks for good players in their prime and filling list spots with solid veteran role players and late draft picks who played quickly but without room to really develop.

Hence it’s relevance to this thread.

If Hawthorn self examines, turns around now and reversed track... as they did in 01 and 05, then essentially this thread becomes moot.

Based on?
An unusually long and strong top end to the draft, plus a host of excellent prospects and even emerging stars beyond that.
 

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
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This next pre season sees the hawks completely re balance their list (age and quality) , after having the oldest ever in 2015, and 16 players holding spots in three premierships

There might be a re assesment. But I stress that senior spot replacements are currently running 50:50 from trades and draft
 

Blue1980

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There’s obviously a lot of differences too, but I’ve been watching this parallel for a while and it’s an eerily similar path.

The big question for me has always been whether Carlton’s downfall was inevitable; it felt like the path was a tightrope and only a few wrong moves sent us spiralling. The big mistakes were:

- Missing on a big name recruit. Stephen O’Reilly was the one we hoped to build our defence around and he was a massive bust

- getting the coach handover wrong

- injuries (Kouta, Whitnall the biggies)

- dipping back into the draft heavily in 2000, a ver weak year (3 picks in the top 20, all bust-ish)

Had we traded those 2000 picks for most established guys, kept Parkin coaching and not had the injuries derail things... we already had Fev and Waite coming through as well...

That’s whats most interesting to see. I reckon it’s a very similar pathway... whether the destination can be better is the really cool queation
Well in 2000/2001, we had been regularly contending and winning flags and the idea we would fall of a cliff and implode didn’t seem likely, though many had thought it possible from as early as even 94/95. We kept coming back, until we didn’t.

Now I think hawthorn have greater stability off field and better run than we were, and though Kennett is outspoken he isn’t the enemy of the AFL that Elliot was, which painted a target on our back when they got the opportunity (not to say we didn’t deserve it, but Elliot being involved really helped make the penalty worse)

Maybe Essendon post 2001 is a more apt comparison, still managed to be mid-range enough (2006 excepted) that endless topping up ensued.

Difference with Carlton and Essendon that hawthorn have is there is now free agency and you can trade multiple year draft picks, meaning it’s easier to get in established talent than back then.

Also the lack of priority picks means you would only look at bottoming out now if you had completely blown up your list and had no choice (Carlton circa 2015, and Carlton circa 2003/04, Gold Coast now)
 

Blue1980

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Essendons list is garbage tbh. They have some nice players here and there but for the most part the better ones need to play out of position to accommodate for the garbage ones.

But whats happening is the few good ones are forced to play other roles so C Graders can fill out the best 22 and not be complete liabilities.
Not sure if essendons list is any better or worse than Hawthorn.

Can’t judge just off last night, every club has a disaster like that once in a while, even the hawks.
 

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Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
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Well in 2000/2001, we had been regularly contending and winning flags and the idea we would fall of a cliff and implode didn’t seem likely, though many had thought it possible from as early as even 94/95. We kept coming back, until we didn’t.

Now I think hawthorn have greater stability off field and better run than we were, and though Kennett is outspoken he isn’t the enemy of the AFL that Elliot was, which painted a target on our back when they got the opportunity (not to say we didn’t deserve it, but Elliot being involved really helped make the penalty worse)

Maybe Essendon post 2001 is a more apt comparison, still managed to be mid-range enough (2006 excepted) that endless topping up ensued.

Difference with Carlton and Essendon that hawthorn have is there is now free agency and you can trade multiple year draft picks, meaning it’s easier to get in established talent than back then.

Also the lack of priority picks means you would only look at bottoming out now if you had completely blown up your list and had no choice (Carlton circa 2015, and Carlton circa 2003/04, Gold Coast now)
Salary cap. Salary cap. Salary cap frankly im surprised we didnt mention it earlier
 

threesixpio

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Sure, but Hawthorns thing in 01 and 04-5 was to self examine and actively trade out established players to get into the top end of the draft.

Carlton from 98-02 didn’t do that, instead following the path Hawthorn are on now - trading draft picks for good players in their prime and filling list spots with solid veteran role players and late draft picks who played quickly but without room to really develop.

Hence it’s relevance to this thread.

If Hawthorn self examines, turns around now and reversed track... as they did in 01 and 05, then essentially this thread becomes moot.



An unusually long and strong top end to the draft, plus a host of excellent prospects and even emerging stars beyond that.
This assumes

- we aren’t self examining and
- that part of our self examination is to intentionally do what we are doing based on different times
 

btdg

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This assumes

- we aren’t self examining and
- that part of our self examination is to intentionally do what we are doing based on different times
No, it’s completely assuming that is what’s happening.

The question is whether you are ‘right’. I’m not saying you aren’t- in fact, my main interest isn’t he question probably harks back to Carlton getting it wrong and curiosity about whether a better run club could actually manage it:
 

Blues90

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Blues on the verge pretty hard to contend from the bottom four. Carlton’s youth massively over rated.
and all your credibility goes out the window right there hahaha sometimes I come on here and find some really bad comments but this is up there lol. It's over rated? I'm willing to put a $1000 bet with you that carlton will have more all Australians over the next 5 years than the hawks.

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Hawk Dork

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and all your credibility goes out the window right there hahaha sometimes I come on here and find some really bad comments but this is up there lol. It's over rated? I'm willing to put a $1000 bet with you that carlton will have more all Australians over the next 5 years than the hawks.

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That will help blow out the salary cap and doesnt guarantee a GF
 

threesixpio

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and all your credibility goes out the window right there hahaha sometimes I come on here and find some really bad comments but this is up there lol. It's over rated? I'm willing to put a $1000 bet with you that carlton will have more all Australians over the next 5 years than the hawks.

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They’ll come over to Hawthorn before getting AAs
 

Blues90

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Oath the salary cap will be a issue later but to crap on about our kids being over rated is just plain ******ed. It's about time we had some kind of salary cap issue so we aren't paying players like nick Graham and Simon white more money than we should be cause we have to pay most of the cap out. And no it won't but hopefully some stay for success and help us actually achieve something the coach we get next is our biggest decision ever
That will help blow out the salary cap and doesnt guarantee a GF
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