Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Roddy]

Oh man, is there some mindboggling desperation, clutching at straws and Hawthorn Derangement Syndrome going on in this thread. We were hearing EXACTLY the some stuff in ‘09. And how did that work out for the HDS sufferers?

 

[Pessimistic]

The problem is timing. You let go of Lake, Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge and others in a 3-year window, and rather than patiently build your way up, Clarkson decides he's impatient and orders his list management to trade the kitchen sink for all these top-ups. Some of those players brought in have big injury clouds over them too, Scully will probably never get back to his best, Patton will probably never get back to his best, T.Mitchell coming back from a broken leg (remember Nathan Brown?).

Meanwhile you look at a team like the Doggies who have been drafting dilligently, even after winning the flag: Macrae, Bont, English, Naughton, Richards, Smith, Dunkley. This is a far better core of under 25s than Hawthorn have. Brisbane too with McCluggage, Cameron, Andrews, Hipwood, Rayner etc.


What do you mean it was worthwhile? It's only worthwhile if you win a premiership.

If Hawthorn do not win a premiership by the time guys like Gunston, Frawley, Breust, Scully etc are gone, and Wingard, Mitchell, Patton etc are in their 30s, all of a sudden, your list will be terrible shape, all because your coach is too stubborn, impatient and thought too highly of himself.

Mitchell in his thirties? Thats six years away. Who was predicting dogs tigers eagles tigers flags in 2010-2014?

Id say any coach or management setting his club up for six years hence is doing a good job

But you say ‘all of a sudden’ supreme emotive language mate


The drafting and trading is no different from about 2010 which delivered three flags if you didnt notice. Due to success theres been precious little access to early draft picks anyway

What has emerged since this discussion started is free hits from free agency just arent there, or you have to commit to deals of seven years or more. Not smart in anyones book.

 

[Pessimistic]

Remember when Melbourne said they'd win a flag, and subsequently finished 17th? Even better memories

Biggest drop off in scoring ever apparently. And the hawks are being accused of bathwater drinking. Ironing

 

[sr36]

But, but, we're tapping the elite end of the draft this year.

Only Hawthorn would consider one Pick 11 in a draft that is supposedly shallow in terms of elite talent to be "tapping the elite end of the draft."

 

[hawkman]

Only Hawthorn would consider one Pick 11 in a draft that is supposedly shallow in terms of elite talent to be "tapping the elite end of the draft."

The issue then is if you don't regard pick 11 as the elite end of the draft then we have only ignored the elite end of the draft once in the past 10 years with the picks we have been given.

 

[TylerDurden]

Only Hawthorn would consider one Pick 11 in a draft that is supposedly shallow in terms of elite talent to be "tapping the elite end of the draft."

Coz we're never shit enough to get a good pick. 3 peat and all that.

 

[sr36]

The issue then is if you don't regard pick 11 as the elite end of the draft then we have only ignored the elite end of the draft once in the past 10 years with the picks we have been given.

I've stepped away from the original 'ignoring the top end of the draft' to looking at overall strategy. I actually thought Mitchell and O'Meara were good moves, despite the risk involved with JOM, as they were young enough to rebuild around, but what you've done since seems absolutely ridiculous to me.

 

[sr36]

Coz we're never shit enough to get a good pick. 3 peat and all that.

I agree with that, but I think your club has forgotten that that 3 peat was built on good picks, yes there was some very shrewd topping up that occurred, but the core of that team was taken young. They weren't big injury risks or salary dumps, which is where you've headed recently.

 

[TylerDurden]

I agree with that, but I think your club has forgotten that that 3 peat was built on good picks, yes there was some very shrewd topping up that occurred, but the core of that team was taken young. They weren't big injury risks or salary dumps, which is where you've headed recently.

Irrelevant. Bud, Rough, Lewis were all top 10 picks, even top 5. Hodge pick 1. When you win flags you get shit picks around 20, in compromised drafts. Those picks are a lottery. Plus we got reamed with Bud netting pick 19 in FA. Another shit pick. You gotta play the hand you're dealt, and play the averages. No problem with what we've done of late. We gave up 2 tenths of fk all for Scully, Patton, Frost and Scrimshaw.

 

[sr36]

Irrelevant. Bud, Rough, Lewis were all top 10 picks, even top 5. Hodge pick 1. When you win flags you get shit picks around 20, in compromised drafts. Those picks are a lottery. Plus we got reamed with Bud netting pick 19 in FA. Another shit pick. You gotta play the hand you're dealt, and play the averages. No problem with what we've done of late. We gave up 2 tenths of fk all for Scully, Patton, Frost and Scrimshaw.

You gave up a lot of salary cap for Scully and Patton which reduces your ability to bring in young guys to rebuild with. Like I said earlier, I think Mitchell and JOM were good moves as they're young enough to rebuild around, but what you've done since screams disaster to me. Time will tell. I hope I'm right because 40 years of dominantion is too bloody long, but obviously you hope I'm wrong.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yet we read the team with the salary cap issues is in stripes but not brown and gold

A team which is quite happy to trade in mature players too, as it happens

 

[cryptor]

Clarkson decides he's impatient and orders his list management to trade the kitchen sink for all these top-ups. Some of those players brought in have big injury clouds over them too, Scully will probably never get back to his best, Patton will probably never get back to his best, T.Mitchell coming back from a broken leg (remember Nathan Brown?).

Other than O'Meara and Wingard, who have we "traded the kitchen sink for" since our last flag?

Mitchell has been well worth the price of admission. While his broken leg this year was disappointing that's not at all a foreseeable event and could have just as easily have happened to the player we might have picked with the first rounder we used to get him.

The next most expensive would be Impey who cost us pick 34 and a late pick swap. Impey has been another great success and his ACL while again disappointing was another unforseeable event with him never having had the injury previously. The only player taken at or after that pick 34 that I'd take over Impey is James Worpel.

All the other players we've picked up since have been for 3rd and 4th rounders. Or for cap space via free agency.

As for O'Meara and Wingard. I'm very comfortable with the price we've paid for each of them. In the last 2 seasons O'Meara has played 42 of a possible 45 games, playing the vast majority of games as a centre clearance mid and doing a fine job at it -- which suggests while his knee may require management it won't preclude him from playing most games on ball. Wingard had a bumpy start in his first season with us as he struggled with injury and form. Later in the year when he returned and played out of the middle he added a tonne of x-factor to the side which helped us get wins over Geelong, GWS (up there in the show) and West Coast (in Perth). I'll be happy to see him return in 2020 and continue where he left off, but as is the case with most players we've traded in he'll likely improve in his second year after settling in.

 

[sr36]

Yet we read the team with the salary cap issues is in stripes but not brown and gold

A team which is quite happy to trade in mature players too, as it happens

In terms of the Pies salary cap issues: Needing to offer payrises to blokes like Grundy, Degoey and Moore is a pretty bloody good problem to have.

I reckon beams was a crap move too, but they obviously justified it becasue they felt they were right in the window. Surely Hawthorn don't think the same?

Pies rebuilt from 2013-2018 by trading in young guys and hitting the draft. The Hawks looked like they were going a similar way - which is how I think you should do it - by trading in young guys with a lot of footy left in front of them - Mitchell and JOM. I think it was a really good move. It's what they've done since that I can't understand. I think they've lost the plot and are setting themsleves up to remain an aging middle of the road list that falls further once the old guys decline.

 

[cryptor]

You gave up a lot of salary cap for Scully and Patton

Completely false.

 

[sr36]

Completely false.

You're probably right, contracts aren't published so none of us really have any idea, but I was under the impression that GWS were clearing these guys cheaply because of salary cap?

 

[Pessimistic]

In terms of the Pies salary cap issues: Needing to offer payrises to blokes like Grundy, Degoey and Moore is a pretty bloody good problem to have.

I reckon beams was a crap move too, but they obviously justified it becasue they felt they were right in the window. Surely Hawthorn don't think the same?

Pies rebuilt from 2013-2018 by trading in young guys and hitting the draft. The Hawks looked like they were going a similar way - which is how I think you should do it - by trading in young guys with a lot of footy left in front of them - Mitchell and JOM. I think it was a really good move. It's what they've done since that I can't understand. I think they've lost the plot and are setting themsleves up to remain an aging middle of the road list that falls further once the old guys decline.

Hard to tell with the pies. When they used cox as avenue to goal and failed they looked a long way off the window
How old do you think wingard is by the way?

 

[Vindicater]

Oh man, is there some mindboggling desperation, clutching at straws and Hawthorn Derangement Syndrome going on in this thread. We were hearing EXACTLY the some stuff in ‘09. And how did that work out for the HDS sufferers?

This thread was settled in the first three pages.

Hawthorn fans = It is working

Non-Hawthorn fans = It is not working.

The next 318 pages has just been people repeating the above.

 

[sr36]

Hard to tell with the pies. When they used cox as avenue to goal and failed they looked a long way off the window
How old do you think wingard is by the way?

27?
Wingard is icing. Hawthorn need cake. And if he was the only one I wouldn’t see it as an issue.

 

[cryptor]

You're probably right, contracts aren't published so none of us really have any idea, but I was under the impression that GWS were clearing these guys cheaply because of salary cap?

Half right. They were on big dollars per year at GWS. When they were traded new deals were signed with the Hawks. Less money per year, but more years than what was remaining on their existing contracts with GWS. Hence, guys with injury history that may have discovered in the short term that they weren't playing footy to the level that gets them another contract are happy to sign longer deals that give them job security and more guaranteed money in the long term (which is also good for them from a tax perspective). Hawthorn assume the risk that these guys don't play again at a high level but it's mitigated by the fact they've traded basically nothing for them and the cap burden is spread out thinner over multiple years. It's also a very calculated risk given the faith in the medical team.

 

[sr36]

Half right. They were on big dollars per year at GWS. When they were traded new deals were signed with the Hawks. Less money per year, but more years than what was remaining on their existing contracts with GWS. Hence, guys with injury history that may have discovered in the short term that they weren't playing footy to the level that gets them another contract are happy to sign longer deals that give them job security and more guaranteed money in the long term (which is also good for them from a tax perspective). Hawthorn assume the risk that these guys don't play again at a high level but it's mitigated by the fact they've traded basically nothing for them and the cap burden is spread out thinner over multiple years. It's also a very calculated risk given the faith in the medical team.

Which goes back to my original point regarding over confidence in all parts of the club. Hawthorn need everything to go right to pull off what they're attempting and even then it will only geet them in the vicinity of a window for a very very short period of time. I think it's dumb gambling, but Hawks are justifying it because you've become arrogant about all aspects of the club - understandable considering how good you've been for how long, but it's got the inevitablity of a Shakesperean tragedy in my opinion, where arrogance is the fatal flaw that leads to your ruin.

 

[Pessimistic]

Every team need a lot to go right to win a flag

 

[sr36]

Every team need a lot to go right to win a flag

Yes but Dowler, Thorp and Ellis show you can build a dynasty even with a fair few things going wrong. Even if everything goes rivht with the current course, i don't think you'll even be genuine challengers and itll be a tiny window. For the first time in 40years I'm confident that Hawthorn are doing something in a half arsed way - this rebuild is like a DIY Greek extension from the 70s.

 

[TylerDurden]

You gave up a lot of salary cap for Scully and Patton which reduces your ability to bring in young guys to rebuild with. Like I said earlier, I think Mitchell and JOM were good moves as they're young enough to rebuild around, but what you've done since screams disaster to me. Time will tell. I hope I'm right because 40 years of dominantion is too bloody long, but obviously you hope I'm wrong.

We had the coin for Cogs. It was done until Gil went nuclear. Cash not the problem.

 

[cryptor]

Which goes back to my original point regarding over confidence in all parts of the club. Hawthorn need everything to go right to pull off what they're attempting and even then it will only geet them in the vicinity of a window for a very very short period of time. I think it's dumb gambling, but Hawks are justifying it because you've become arrogant about all aspects of the club - understandable considering how good you've been for how long, but it's got the inevitablity of a Shakesperean tragedy in my opinion, where arrogance is the fatal flaw that leads to your ruin.

How is it arrogance? Hawthorn aren't signing up every injured star and laughing about how they'll fix'em up good as new. The players are carefully selected and assessed on a variety of factors that determine the likliehood of playing good footy again. The prices we pay in trade and in contracts are reflective of those assessments. Sometimes they'll work out (eg. Burgoyne) and other times they won't (eg. O'Rourke).

If we were paying huge prices like we did with O'Meara and Burgoyne every time then I would completely agree that it's an unsustainable model. But those cases aren't at all representative of the majority of these kind of deals for players under bad injury clouds who we end up paying very little for.

If you think these kinds of calculated risks that involve a professional level of skill and knowledge being put into action is akin to gambling on something that you have next to no control over then I can see how you might consider it arrogance and "dumb". But the fact is that Hawthorn do have a very good record in that space and I think it's pretty foolish to put it down to luck. But then I do hope every other club thinks like you.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Remember when Melbourne said they'd win a flag, and subsequently finished 17th? Even better memories

You always know when someone has no counter argument, they make an off-topic comment about the person's club, i love seeing nuffies do it, it's when I know I've hit a raw nerve