Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

jackenny

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This is probably the textbook example of bigfooty and a supporter just listing their teams players and assuming they are good without considering the competition they'd be up against.

Nothing there is impressive as a unit relative to the actual good sides in the league.

Possibly the ruck duo is better than most, but its the least important area and recent successful sides have shown time and again, you don't need more than competitive players in that area.

Make no mistake the advantage/hope in Hawthorn is not its players. The players are a mid table team. The advantage is Clarkson is a great coach, and can possibly get more out of them.
As much as Hawthorn are criticised for their lack of youth, it really depends on what part of the ground is being talked about... in regard to their backline, they're stacked with young talent. On top of having a coach that's very good at coaching strong team defence. Hawthorn's biggest boon is their young backline. They are extremely miserly. The only thing they're missing is an obvious replacement for Frawley. Jacob Koschitzke is intended to be their long-term replacement for Frawley, but he's yet to play an AFL game (he's nineteen years old, so his AFL career is still very much in its infancy). James Sicily and Jarman Impey are both twenty-four years old, already cemented in their Best 22. Blake Hardwick (22 yo) is a more dour / workman type but also cemented in their Best 22. As for their young prospects, Jack Scrimshaw is twenty-one years old and has the potential to be Best 22 if the Hawks have fixed his issues (at the Suns he was homesick and it made him useless to us, but his talent is genuine). Harry Morrison and CJ are both twenty years old and have the potential to be Best 22. If they manage to grab either Fischer McAsey or Will Gould in this draft, I'd rate them as having the best young backline in the league, honestly.

Midfield is average. Looked dysfunctional without Mitchell (until Wingard moved there in the second half of 2019, started looking competitive after that). Worpel is a young gun, but he's really it for their youth - really depends on Mcguinness and Downie, or if anybody else on their list steps up in 2020.

I am way more critical of their young forward stocks. Hanrahan and Mitch Lewis are probably their best prospects but the depth of talent falls off a cliff after that. Dylan Moore? I'd need to see a big improvement from him in 2020 to sell me on him.
 

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TylerDurden

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As much as Hawthorn are criticised for their lack of youth, it really depends on what part of the ground is being talked about... in regard to their backline, they're stacked with young talent. On top of having a coach that's very good at coaching strong team defence. Hawthorn's biggest boon is their young backline. They are extremely miserly. The only thing they're missing is an obvious replacement for Frawley. Jacob Koschitzke is intended to be their long-term replacement for Frawley, but he's yet to play an AFL game (he's nineteen years old, so his AFL career is still very much in its infancy). James Sicily and Jarman Impey are both twenty-four years old, already cemented in their Best 22. Blake Hardwick (22 yo) is a more dour / workman type but also cemented in their Best 22. As for their young prospects, Jack Scrimshaw is twenty-one years old and has the potential to be Best 22 if the Hawks have fixed his issues (at the Suns he was homesick and it made him useless to us, but his talent is genuine). Harry Morrison and CJ are both twenty years old and have the potential to be Best 22. If they manage to grab either Fischer McAsey or Will Gould in this draft, I'd rate them as having the best young backline in the league, honestly.

Midfield is average. Looked dysfunctional without Mitchell (until Wingard moved there in the second half of 2019, started looking competitive after that). Worpel is a young gun, but he's really it for their youth - really depends on Mcguinness and Downie, or if anybody else on their list steps up in 2020.

I am way more critical of their young forward stocks. Hanrahan and Mitch Lewis are probably their best prospects but the depth of talent falls off a cliff after that. Dylan Moore? I'd need to see a big improvement from him in 2020 to sell me on him.
Nash is only 20 and will be a player.

We've got a heap of draft picks this year which is only gonna bring the demographic down further.
 

Luv_our_club

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With the aging, I'm talking about: if you are middle of the road in 3 years time, and I think you will be. The guys you have brought in who are 26 year olds now will be getting on. Gunston, Bruest and any other remnants of your great teams will be at the end. You appear to be hell bent on this current strategy of loading up on blokes of that age group, so I wouldn't be surprised if you add a free agent or two in the next couple of years as well. If things go right it will be seen as a brilliant move, but it's a high risk strategy that could, and I think is most likely to, go horribly wrong, when in 3 years time you're middle of the road with an aging list.
I would counter with the view that any strategy to win a flag is high risk. Look at St Kilda who went hard at the draft after 2010... hasn't panned out. Port are going hard again now at the draft. Carlton too. It takes ages, if it works at all.

Look at St Kilda, Sydney, Freo...they are middle of the road... and they were our competition from 2008-16. I don't think their choice of going to the draft has resulted in a more promising outlook for them. Whereas Geelong have rolled the dice at the trade table, and had success. And still look strong for the future.

The fact that the Hawks went for 5 GF appearances in a row is important. We faced a steep decline. We had to rebuild a midfield quickly... and we paid first round draft picks for that (but not top 10 picks, except one accidently).

Unless we bottomed out and traded out our players for picks, we had little option but to bring in developed talent quickly. If we had decided to bottom out i think we would now be around 6 years from a flag, maybe a bit quicker if we tanked, without any guarantee of not being middle of the road anyway.

Hopefully we can pinch 1 or 2 flags in the next 4 years with this current group... and if not, look a bit like Geelong now if it doesn't work out.
 
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Luv_our_club

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As much as Hawthorn are criticised for their lack of youth, it really depends on what part of the ground is being talked about... in regard to their backline, they're stacked with young talent. On top of having a coach that's very good at coaching strong team defence. Hawthorn's biggest boon is their young backline. They are extremely miserly. The only thing they're missing is an obvious replacement for Frawley. Jacob Koschitzke is intended to be their long-term replacement for Frawley, but he's yet to play an AFL game (he's nineteen years old, so his AFL career is still very much in its infancy). James Sicily and Jarman Impey are both twenty-four years old, already cemented in their Best 22. Blake Hardwick (22 yo) is a more dour / workman type but also cemented in their Best 22. As for their young prospects, Jack Scrimshaw is twenty-one years old and has the potential to be Best 22 if the Hawks have fixed his issues (at the Suns he was homesick and it made him useless to us, but his talent is genuine). Harry Morrison and CJ are both twenty years old and have the potential to be Best 22. If they manage to grab either Fischer McAsey or Will Gould in this draft, I'd rate them as having the best young backline in the league, honestly.

Midfield is average. Looked dysfunctional without Mitchell (until Wingard moved there in the second half of 2019, started looking competitive after that). Worpel is a young gun, but he's really it for their youth - really depends on Mcguinness and Downie, or if anybody else on their list steps up in 2020.

I am way more critical of their young forward stocks. Hanrahan and Mitch Lewis are probably their best prospects but the depth of talent falls off a cliff after that. Dylan Moore? I'd need to see a big improvement from him in 2020 to sell me on him.
We really need a young gun small forward. Who doesn't?

We have Walker and Ross in the VFL... along with Moore who you mention. There is a bit of buzz around those two.

The Hawks list management didn't expect Rioli to retire so quickly... and Wingard is probably better in the midfield.
 

sr36

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I would counter with the view that any strategy to win a flag is high risk. Look at St Kilda who went hard at the draft after 2010... hasn't panned out. Port are going hard again now at the draft. Carlton too. It takes ages, if it works at all.

Look at St Kilda, Sydney, Freo...they are middle of the road... and they were our competition from 2008-16. I don't think their choice of going to the draft has resulted in a more promising outlook for them. Whereas Geelong have rolled the dice at the trade table, and had success. And still look strong for the future.

The fact that the Hawks went for 5 GF appearances in a row is important. We faced a steep decline. We had to rebuild a midfield quickly... and we paid first round draft picks for that (but not top 10 picks, except one accidently).

Unless we bottomed out and traded out our players for picks, we had little option but to bring in developed talent quickly. If we had decided to bottom out i think we would now be around 6 years from a flag, maybe a bit quicker if we tanked, without any guarantee of not being middle of the road anyway.

Hopefully we can pinch 1 or 2 flags in the next 4 years with this current group... and if not, look a bit like Geelong now if it doesn't work out.
You've converted my thinking somewhat on this, as you are giving yourselves an outside chance of bucking the equalisation measures. Like all things Hawthorn, it'll be an interesting watch. Bloody Hawthorn, even when mediocre you're still relevant to the direction of the game.
 

Marcel Proust

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We really need a young gun small forward. Who doesn't?

We have Walker and Ross in the VFL... along with Moore who you mention. There is a bit of buzz around those two.

The Hawks list management didn't expect Rioli to retire so quickly... and Wingard is probably better in the midfield.
Richmond? :)

That said I wouldnt mind Kysaiah Pickett in Daniel Butlers spot
 

WWSD

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This is probably the textbook example of bigfooty and a supporter just listing their teams players and assuming they are good without considering the competition they'd be up against.

Nothing there is impressive as a unit relative to the actual good sides in the league.

Possibly the ruck duo is better than most, but its the least important area and recent successful sides have shown time and again, you don't need more than competitive players in that area.

Make no mistake the advantage/hope in Hawthorn is not its players. The players are a mid table team. The advantage is Clarkson is a great coach, and can possibly get more out of them.
Who are the supposed “good sides”? Apart from Richmond, Hawthorn are capable of beating any of the top teams and they showed that this year.

I can’t take Brisbane seriously until they can prove that they can beat Hawthorn at the MCG.

GWS? They lack depth outside their best 22

Collingwood? Lost 14 of 15

WCE? Lost 10 of 14
 

Marcel Proust

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Who are the supposed “good sides”? Apart from Richmond, Hawthorn are capable of beating any of the top teams and they showed that this year.

I can’t take Brisbane seriously until they can prove that they can beat Hawthorn at the MCG.
(IMO)

Richmond, Giants, WCE, Geelong, Collingwood, (Dogs?)

the Lions have a YOUNG highly talented list most would be projecting them upwards. Outside of Essendon, Hawthorn list looks inferior to the top8, once again imho

Beating teams once doesnt mean anything. Richmond consistently pantz the hawks in the long ago hawthorn golden era
 

BJK#5

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(IMO)

Richmond, Giants, WCE, Geelong, Collingwood, (Dogs?)

the Lions have a YOUNG highly talented list most would be projecting them upwards. Outside of Essendon, Hawthorn list looks inferior to the top8, once again imho

Beating teams once doesnt mean anything. Richmond consistently pantz the hawks in the long ago hawthorn golden era
And the Demons had a young highly talented list that most would have been projecting them upwards and we all know how that panned out this year. Being young doesn't guarantee anything.

The AFL has plenty of good teams at the moment but it is about as open as it has been in a very long time. A good run with injury at the right time of the year and timing a run through finals and you give yourself every chance to be contending at the end of the season.
 

WWSD

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(IMO)

Richmond, Giants, WCE, Geelong, Collingwood, (Dogs?)

the Lions have a YOUNG highly talented list most would be projecting them upwards. Outside of Essendon, Hawthorn list looks inferior to the top8, once again imho

Beating teams once doesnt mean anything. Richmond consistently pantz the hawks in the long ago hawthorn golden era
Richmond supporters sure are stubborn.

Is beating Collingwood 14 of 15 times once?

Is beating West Coast 10 of 14 times once?
Hawthorn are more then capable of knocking off any of the top eight teams on their day. Except for Richmond.
 

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juss

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Who are the supposed “good sides”? Apart from Richmond, Hawthorn are capable of beating any of the top teams and they showed that this year.

I can’t take Brisbane seriously until they can prove that they can beat Hawthorn at the MCG.

GWS? They lack depth outside their best 22

Collingwood? Lost 14 of 15

WCE? Lost 10 of 14
Hawthorn missed the finals.
On exposed form they are all better sides than Hawthorn. For God's sake GWS made the GF and you are trying to challenge that Hawthorn is a better side!?

Hawthorn winning 14/15 against any of them is irrelevant. Your wins going back to when Hawthorn was actually a good side years ago mean nothing now.

Secondly, beating a side in a home and away game doesn't mean much in the context of a season. Literally every year mid table sides and even bottom sides cause big upsets to better side. This occurs in sport worldwide. Hawthorn aren't better than those sides just because of that.

I repeat, Hawthorn missed finals. All those sides are better.
 

WWSD

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Hawthorn missed the finals.
On exposed form they are all better sides than Hawthorn.

Hawthorn winning 14/15 against any of them is irrelevant. Your wins going back to when Hawthorn was actually a good side years ago mean nothing now.

Secondly, beating a side in a home and away game doesn't mean much in the context of a season. Literally every year mid table sides and even bottom sides cause big upsets to better side. This occurs in sport worldwide. Hawthorn aren't better than those sides just because of that.

I repeat, Hawthorn missed finals. All those sides are better.
We’ll see in 2020 when Hawthorn play finals.
 

Simon_Nesbit

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Richmond supporters sure are stubborn.

Is beating Collingwood 14 of 15 times once?

Is beating West Coast 10 of 14 times once?

Richmond are a Dustin Martin injury away from being a bottom eight team.

Hawthorn are more then capable of knocking off any of the top eight teams on their day. Except for Richmond.
Just like Hawks were (Mitchell) in 2019. Even then it was a very 'unucky' 9th. Most prediction sites still had Hawthorn 4th/5th in line for the flag in the last round even though they were sitting 10th and needed results to go their way.

There isn't a single team that sits comfortable above the field - Richmond would be closest but even they have some matchups they struggle against.
 

juss

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We’ll see in 2020 when Hawthorn play finals.
You cant escape your idiocy. You already tried to argue you were better than those sides.

Hawthorn might play finals, I have them finishing 7th-10th. Who cares? There are multiple better sides.
 

Scotland

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Why do people put so much stock in beating a couple of good sides in a season? St Kilda, Carlton, Port all beat a couple of top 8 sides during the season.

We finished 5th (and under-performed) and lost to Sydney (15th), Port (10th) and Hawthorn (9th) among our 7 H&A losses. That doesn't somehow catapult those teams ahead of us or any other finalist because they happened to beat higher finishing teams during the season.
 

Jobe Watson

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Have Hawthorn fans forgotten that their team were sitting in the bottom 4 as late as Round 15? They saved themselves by getting a few junk time wins at end the season when the pressure was off, but they were crap for most of 2019. Hawthorn's list isn't tracking in any direction but downwards and they will again slump in 2020. There are plenty of better teams with more scope for improvement.
 

matey

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Since Hawthorn’s dominant 3 peat the competition from the best sides to 13th/14th is the closest its ever been. If you don’t turn up to play you will get beat. Crikey Hardwick was close to being sacked during 2016! If a rabble club for the last 4 decades like the Tigers can pull themselves out of a pile of manure you would assume that the most successful club over the last 60 years can improve 5/10% to challenge again soon. Clarko thinks and has said on numerous occasions this year that Hawk supporters should be optimistic on how the current rebuild is progressing. Clarko wasn’t conveying this message in the first half of the year!
 

BJK#5

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Have Hawthorn fans forgotten that their team were sitting in the bottom 4 as late as Round 15? They saved themselves by getting a few junk time wins at end the season when the pressure was off, but they were crap for most of 2019. Hawthorn's list isn't tracking in any direction but downwards and they will again slump in 2020. There are plenty of better teams with more scope for improvement.
Junk time wins against teams that needed to win those games...

Also not many teams with a Brownlow medalist returning for them this season. We have scope for improvement.
 

juss

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Beat literally every team you just listed this season, with a side weaker than what we will put out on the park in 2020.
That's nice. So how far above them did Hawthorn finish this year?

Remember that in 2019 Richmond lost to North Melbourne and the Crows. I assume by your logic then that makes them more threatening than the Tigers in 2020?
 

juss

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Why do people put so much stock in beating a couple of good sides in a season? St Kilda, Carlton, Port all beat a couple of top 8 sides during the season.

We finished 5th (and under-performed) and lost to Sydney (15th), Port (10th) and Hawthorn (9th) among our 7 H&A losses. That doesn't somehow catapult those teams ahead of us or any other finalist because they happened to beat higher finishing teams during the season.
For some reason there are multiple Hawthorn fans who don't understand this. It happens every year in every sport.
 

BJK#5

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For some reason there are multiple Hawthorn fans who don't understand this. It happens every year in every sport.
No you are just ignoring the point.

Hawks fans are not saying it makes them better than those teams, it shows that in the crunch time of the season we could match it with them. We need to improve on consistency and maintaining the level of those teams but we have the ability.
 

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