Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

Pessimistic

TheBrownDog
Sep 13, 2000
70,041
29,431
Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Horks
What chance are Hawthorn to do this though ?
Fyfe at 20
Cripps at 13
Kelly at pick 24
Gawn at pick 34
It's a long shot.
in fact from 2005-2009 when they didnt recruit older players,the returns werent quite so good. Im thinking it over 45% success rate from drafts.

I have a clear graphic of Hawthorns past success at recruitment. I have coloured successful playeres and bolded very successful ones. recent years still to play out of course. Not going the early crow here apart from T Mitchell
 

Attachments

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Nugett

Premiership Player
Apr 2, 2017
4,167
4,744
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Well sure i would love top Draft picks but to get them you need to be a bad team for a full year and hope that the kid you take ends up making it. Miss out and you set the rebuild back 12 months just off that one pick.

For every Dustin Martin you get a Tom Scully and Jack Trengove the picks before them and Anthony Morabito the pick after him (poor guy). Also have Rohan at pick 6, Butcher 8, Andrew Moore 9.
Or you need to trade out very good players to get them picks. An example is us trading out Croad and McPharlin plus a few pick swaps to get the number 1 draft pick. While that turned out alright at the time, it doesn’t guarantee it’s going to work. If memory serves me correct, the hawks went from prelim finalists to runners up of the spoon the following year. Where we stayed bottom 4 until 2005/2006 until we started to climb backup the ladder.

If your not receiving the high end draft picks (top 10) then your options are limited. You can hope for a player that will be good, but unlikely to be truly elite at your pick. You can try and trade up and try to get into the higher end of the draft, by trading players and picks (robbing Peter to pay Paul imo). Or what the hawks are doing, look at trying to get players later on in their careers by trading for them, at bargain prices.
 

philohk

on holiday by mistake
Jun 18, 2008
1,303
759
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Or you need to trade out very good players to get them picks. An example is us trading out Croad and McPharlin plus a few pick swaps to get the number 1 draft pick. While that turned out alright at the time, it doesn’t guarantee it’s going to work. If memory serves me correct, the hawks went from prelim finalists to runners up of the spoon the following year. Where we stayed bottom 4 until 2005/2006 until we started to climb backup the ladder.

If your not receiving the high end draft picks (top 10) then your options are limited. You can hope for a player that will be good, but unlikely to be truly elite at your pick. You can try and trade up and try to get into the higher end of the draft, by trading players and picks (robbing Peter to pay Paul imo). Or what the hawks are doing, look at trying to get players later on in their careers by trading for them, at bargain prices.
We finished just out of finals in 2002 and 2003. 2004 and 2005 were the years we crashed. We nailed the 2004 draft and did OK in 05 as well mainly through Birchall (pick 14), though Ellis and Bailey ended up being contributors.
 

WWSD

Premium Platinum
Sep 7, 2009
19,145
37,297
Mill Park
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Sacramento Kings
Hey OP what exactly is the “elite end” of the draft? Does it have to be top 5, top 10 or top 20 draft pick? Hawthorn right now has pick 11. It’s the highest first round pick since delicious.

Next year Hawthorn has access to Conor Downie. Who is one of the best midfielders in the 2020 draft pool. He would probably go in the top 5 if he wasn’t a NGA player. :$:thumbsu:
 

Marcel Proust

Premiership Player
Sep 6, 2018
4,145
8,533
#BigBigSound
AFL Club
Richmond
Hey OP what exactly is the “elite end” of the draft? Does it have to be top 5, top 10 or top 20 draft pick? Hawthorn right now has pick 11. It’s the highest first round pick since delicious.

Next year Hawthorn has access to Conor Downie. Who is one of the best midfielders in the 2020 draft pool. He would probably go in the top 5 if he wasn’t a NGA player. :$:thumbsu:
hodge, roughead, franklin, lewis, ellis, birchill, bailey, rioli, is 'elite end'

yes, its good the hawks have some upcoming f/s / academy players. They gunna need it
 
Last edited:

The Cryptkeeper

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 9, 2006
10,342
7,690
Left of centre.
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
hodge, roughead, franklin, lewis, ellis, birchill, bailey, rioli, is 'elite end'

yes, its good the hawks have some upcoming f/s / academy players. They gunna need it
Max Bailey was pick 18. Birchall, pick 14 and Rioli was pick 12.

Would have thought top 8-10 was "elite end" but nothing past that.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Holy Rioli

Premium Gold
Nov 24, 2012
4,056
6,566
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Golden State Warriors

Vindicater

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 16, 2013
7,815
9,487
AFL Club
Essendon
Hey OP what exactly is the “elite end” of the draft? Does it have to be top 5, top 10 or top 20 draft pick? Hawthorn right now has pick 11. It’s the highest first round pick since delicious.

Next year Hawthorn has access to Conor Downie. Who is one of the best midfielders in the 2020 draft pool. He would probably go in the top 5 if he wasn’t a NGA player. :$:thumbsu:
The answer is clearly the last pick before Hawthorns.

If Hawthorn has pick 11 then the top end is 10.

If Downie gets bid on at 3 next year then the elite end is top 2.

If Downie goes first then clearly the draft lacks elite talent.
 

TheFourPillars

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
9,338
16,841
AFL Club
Hawthorn
The answer is clearly the last pick before Hawthorns.

If Hawthorn has pick 11 then the top end is 10.

If Downie gets bid on at 3 next year then the elite end is top 2.

If Downie goes first then clearly the draft lacks elite talent.
After this rather succinct post there should be no further confusion in reading this thread
 

Spook

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 19, 2003
7,114
3,637
Top of the pile looking down
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Claremont
Have Hawthorn fans forgotten that their team were sitting in the bottom 4 as late as Round 15? They saved themselves by getting a few junk time wins at end the season when the pressure was off, but they were crap for most of 2019. Hawthorn's list isn't tracking in any direction but downwards and they will again slump in 2020. There are plenty of better teams with more scope for improvement.
It was a close season from 2 to 12. Do you remember that at the same time, Rd 14, Richmond wasn't even in the top 8 with a percentage of 92%, 5% less than Hawthorns.
 

theBigB

Debutant
Nov 5, 2019
98
69
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
At the same age, same number of games s###s all over Bontempelli. One thing for sure Worpel would not have rolled over and squibbed it against GWS when they bullied the soft little puppies in the finals. Worpel would have lead and put his head over the ball!
Mate are you seriously delusional enough to believe Worpel is even in the same realm as the Bont in terms of talent?

Rhys Palmer also had excellent early career stats, as did guys like Andy Otten, Daniel Rich, James Aish and others. Means nothing in the long-run.

Also, your attempt at trolling is pretty pathetic, because Bont has literally won a premiership in a near-BoG Grand Final performance. One bad game will never change the fact that Bontempelli is a far superior player to Worpel.
 

BJK#5

Premiership Player
Aug 9, 2017
4,799
15,566
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Hurricanes, Dolphins
Mate are you seriously delusional enough to believe Worpel is even in the same realm as the Bont in terms of talent?

Rhys Palmer also had excellent early career stats, as did guys like Andy Otten, Daniel Rich, James Aish and others. Means nothing in the long-run.

Also, your attempt at trolling is pretty pathetic, because Bont has literally won a premiership in a near-BoG Grand Final performance. One bad game will never change the fact that Bontempelli is a far superior player to Worpel.
Eh he is no more delusional than you thinking Worpel isn't a potential A grader
 

theBigB

Debutant
Nov 5, 2019
98
69
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Eh he is no more delusional than you thinking Worpel isn't a potential A grader
Hang on, you're saying "potential" now. I just disputed him being a certain A grader...

Even as far as potential goes, if we assume A is the highest possible standard a player can reach, and Worpel does not have the tools to be in the same realm as the Fyfes/Dangers/Martins of the comp.
 

BJK#5

Premiership Player
Aug 9, 2017
4,799
15,566
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Hurricanes, Dolphins
Hang on, you're saying "potential" now. I just disputed him being a certain A grader...

Even as far as potential goes, if we assume A is the highest possible standard a player can reach, and Worpel does not have the tools to be in the same realm as the Fyfes/Dangers/Martins of the comp.
Oh please he is ahead of where any of those 3 were when at the same age yet somehow has some ceiling stopping him from improving to the levels they have.
 

hawkman

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 7, 2007
17,457
19,713
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
Mate are you seriously delusional enough to believe Worpel is even in the same realm as the Bont in terms of talent?

Rhys Palmer also had excellent early career stats, as did guys like Andy Otten, Daniel Rich, James Aish and others. Means nothing in the long-run.

Also, your attempt at trolling is pretty pathetic, because Bont has literally won a premiership in a near-BoG Grand Final performance. One bad game will never change the fact that Bontempelli is a far superior player to Worpel.
He didn't get a vote in the Norm Smith.

At this stage i don't have Worpel as an A grader. He needs to do what he did this season to be in the conversation

As for talent wise, it is too early to say whether he can match Bontempelli
 

theBigB

Debutant
Nov 5, 2019
98
69
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Oh please he is ahead of where any of those 3 were when at the same age yet somehow has some ceiling stopping him from improving to the levels they have.
There you go again with this crap! It's like you gotta cling to something hey!

Lewis Taylor was ahead of those guys at the same age too, how's he going these days?

Worpel has not once exhibited the same physical traits as Dustin Martin, who even as a young player, had some serious acceleration and power through the stoppages. Worpel is not in the same realm, and never will be.
 

theBigB

Debutant
Nov 5, 2019
98
69
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
He didn't get a vote in the Norm Smith.
So? Are we using Wayne Carey's opinion as an objective measure of talent now?

As for talent wise, it is too early to say whether he can match Bontempelli
I don't think so. I can categorically say with 100% certainty that Worpel will never be as good as Bontempelli. Not next year, not ever. You can bookmark this post if you like, but it's all in vain.

The Bont has a unique skillset that cannot be taught. You're either born with it or you're not. If we're comparing Worpel with Doggies players, someone like Macrae is the more reasonable benchmark.
 

BJK#5

Premiership Player
Aug 9, 2017
4,799
15,566
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Hurricanes, Dolphins
There you go again with this crap! It's like you gotta cling to something hey!

Lewis Taylor was ahead of those guys at the same age too, how's he going these days?

Worpel has not once exhibited the same physical traits as Dustin Martin, who even as a young player, had some serious acceleration and power through the stoppages. Worpel is not in the same realm, and never will be.
Hang he showed multiple times throughout the year that he has impressive burst from a stoppage, his strength in and around a contest for a 2nd year player is seriously impressive as well. You are right that not all young promising players go on with it but what he has done in just 2 years has been matched by very few. He doesn't lack the physical qualities to make it as a star in the AFL.

Winning a B&F in his second year is seriously impressive, if he never improves a lick he will be a good 200+ AFL game player.
 

Top Bottom